Blues 2024 Off-Season Trade Proposals Thread

[TurgPavs]

It is sounding like Theodore is going to be available this summer. Gotta wonder what the asking price is from Vegas.

 

[The Note]

I completely disagree with this logic. 29 is primetime for NHL players. Buch with a year left could definitely land the #5 from Montreal. It may take our 2nd instead of our 3rd but this is not outside the realm of possibility. I think it would be good value both ways and we could draft a legit #2 D with that pick.

Hell to the NO!!

It’s not really something I came up with out of the blue. There’s plenty of data showing that NHL forwards peak in their early, mid 20s and tail off from there. If 29 is “prime time” it’s at the very end of that time. The graph below is a couple years old at this point, but it demonstrates the point. Sure, there are outliers of guys that produce well into their 30s, but you’re asking Montreal to make an awful big bet on that being the case for the 5th overall pick. If the roles were reversed would genuinely trade 5th overall for Buch at his age and contract status?

 

[bleedblue1223]

Yeah, at 29, their prime is coming to an end and with an extension, it's going to get rough. Certain players or styles can buck the trend, but they are the exception, not the rule.

I see an argument for extending Buchnevich for 4-5 years, depending on the salary, I could do 6, but anything more is just signing up for another disaster. And that's also going to have an impact on his trade value.

 

[PerryTurnbullfan]

So chatting with a friend that’s a Sharks fan asked about what it would take for Snuggerud. Would you do Halttunen and the 33rd pick for Snuggerud?

 

[bleedblue1223]

No. Not that Snuggerud is untouchable, I'd only trade him to get a higher quality asset or at least same level of quality in a position of more importance.

 

[TurgPavs]

It’s not really something I came up with out of the blue. There’s plenty of data showing that NHL forwards peak in their early, mid 20s and tail off from there. If 29 is “prime time” it’s at the very end of that time. The graph below is a couple years old at this point, but it demonstrates the point. Sure, there are outliers of guys that produce well into their 30s, but you’re asking Montreal to make an awful big bet on that being the case for the 5th overall pick. If the roles were reversed would genuinely trade 5th overall for Buch at his age and contract status?

View attachment 872226

I dont disagree, however in 23-24.
8 out of the top 10 in points were 28+ years old
9 out of the top 14 in Goals were 28+ years old
8 out of the top 20 in Goals were 30+ years old

Age is one metric, however Games Played has to be considered as well.
You look at the 2013 draft class, Buch is 8th among forwards in points, yet he is 17th in forwards with Games Played.
The 517 Games played by Buch is not that high.
Keller is 4 years younger then Buch, and has played in more Regular Season games.
Buch spent a lot of time in the KHL before coming over, less games less physical wear on the body, etc.

I think you have to look at both age and Games played in the NHL.
I have zero issue with Buch getting 4-6 years. At 6 years playing 80 games per year, that puts him under 1000 NHL games played.

Look at guys that hit 1000 GP this season, which agian would be waht Buch would be hitting at the end of a 6 year deal.
Perron (47), Benn (60), Tavares (65), ROR (69), Stamkos (81), Marchand (67), Eberle (44), Duchene (65)

 

[PerryTurnbullfan]

No. Not that Snuggerud is untouchable, I'd only trade him to get a higher quality asset or at least same level of quality in a position of more importance.

So…you have seen what he is doing in London right? And in the playoffs?

 

[bleedblue1223]

So…you have seen what he is doing in London right? And in the playoffs?

He's having a great playoffs, no denying that.

 

[Brian39]

So chatting with a friend that’s a Sharks fan asked about what it would take for Snuggerud. Would you do Halttunen and the 33rd pick for Snuggerud?

The only way I'd remotely consider that offer is if Snuggy has told us behind closed doors that he will absolutely never sign with us. Even then, I'd be looking to get a much better package.

Snuggy is a noticeably better prospect than Halttunen. He has much higher upside, is much closer to being NHL ready, and I think his floor is much higher as well. Snuggy is a top 30 prospect in the world and I'm not sure if Halttunen would make most top 100 lists. The gap between the two of them is significantly greater than an early 2nd rounder. I have no interest down grading a RW prospect to a significantly lesser RW prospect just to pick up the 33rd overall pick.

I'm not really interested in moving Snuggy for pure futures unless we are talking about a deal where we are swapping him for a legitimate high-value D prospect. But if we are just talking about figuring out the right 'value' of pure futures for Snuggy in a deal with the Sharks and they are hell bent on including Halttunen, I would need them to add the #14 and the #33 to even start considering it. I'm pretty confident my answer would still be no. Again, the only way my answer would become yes is if Snuggy has privately indicated that he doesn't want to be here and I feel a need to get the best possible trade before that becomes public.

Realistically, I don't really see a Snuggy-to-the-Sharks scenario that doesn't involve Mukhamadullin coming our way. I totally understand why San Jose wouldn't be interested in that, but I'm also not eager to move Snuggy so I'm content with them hanging up the phone. Snuggy is our 2nd best prospect and will very likely retain that distinction following the draft this year. I'm not looking to move him for a couple early 2nd round equivalent assets.

 

[Brian39]

So…you have seen what he is doing in London right? And in the playoffs?

He's been extremely good.

He's also more physically developed than the bulk of his junior competition, has relied on that physical edge quite a bit, and is playing on a team that is absolutely loaded with talent (he finished tied for 7th on the Knights in points and 4th in goals this year). The Knights went 16-2 in the playoffs with a +42 goal differential. He played a big part in that, but I'm absolutely not confident that he's suddenly a top tier prospect because he isplaying great on a team full of great players that drastically outclass the competition.

I want no part of a trade that is based on buying high based on his playoff performance this year.

 

[PerryTurnbullfan]

The only way I'd remotely consider that offer is if Snuggy has told us behind closed doors that he will absolutely never sign with us. Even then, I'd be looking to get a much better package.

Snuggy is a noticeably better prospect than Halttunen. He has much higher upside, is much closer to being NHL ready, and I think his floor is much higher as well. Snuggy is a top 30 prospect in the world and I'm not sure if Halttunen would make most top 100 lists. The gap between the two of them is significantly greater than an early 2nd rounder. I have no interest down grading a RW prospect to a significantly lesser RW prospect just to pick up the 33rd overall pick.

I'm not really interested in moving Snuggy for pure futures unless we are talking about a deal where we are swapping him for a legitimate high-value D prospect. But if we are just talking about figuring out the right 'value' of pure futures for Snuggy in a deal with the Sharks and they are hell bent on including Halttunen, I would need them to add the #14 and the #33 to even start considering it. I'm pretty confident my answer would still be no. Again, the only way my answer would become yes is if Snuggy has privately indicated that he doesn't want to be here and I feel a need to get the best possible trade before that becomes public.

Realistically, I don't really see a Snuggy-to-the-Sharks scenario that doesn't involve Mukhamadullin coming our way. I totally understand why San Jose wouldn't be interested in that, but I'm also not eager to move Snuggy so I'm content with them hanging up the phone. Snuggy is our 2nd best prospect and will very likely retain that distinction following the draft this year. I'm not looking to move him for a couple early 2nd round equivalent assets.

That’s a fair assessment. Watching London quite a few games, I think he definitely has improved his stock and will get in top 100 discussion. I don’t see you getting 14 and Halttunen for Snuggerud anymore than getting 16 and Dvorsky for Moore (I meant Will Smith)

 

[Brian39]

That’s a fair assessment. Watching London quite a few games, I think he definitely has improved his stock and will get in top 100 discussion. I don’t see you getting 14 and Halttunen for Snuggerud anymore than getting 16 and Dvorsky for Moore

Snuggy, Dvorsky, and Moore are on completely different levels than Halttunen.

Your comparable offer essentially equates Halttunen to Dvorsky. I want zero part of any trade where Halttunen is garnering comps to those prospects.

 

[PerryTurnbullfan]

Snuggy, Dvorsky, and Moore are on completely different levels than Halttunen.

Your comparable offer essentially equates Halttunen to Dvorsky. I want zero part of any trade where Halttunen is garnering comps to those prospects.

Snuggy isn’t on a level with either of those 2 prospects. He isn’t a center or a top 10 value pick. Hes a scoring winger similar to Halttunen but a step over him. As Will Smith is a step over Dvorsky.

 

[Brian39]

Snuggy isn’t on a level with either of those 2 prospects. He isn’t a center or a top 10 value pick. Hes a scoring winger similar to Halttunen but a step over him. As Will Smith is a step over Dvorsky.

The Athletic has Snuggy ranked 19th among drafted prospects. Ahead of (and in a higher tier than) Moore and Dvorsky.

The Hockey Writers have him at #31 in their ranking of drafted prospects. Dvorsky and Moore are 17th and 20th respectively.

Craig Button at TSN has him ranked 15th on his list of the top 50 drafted prospects. He has Dvorsky at 26th and Moore is unranked.

Daily Faceoff had him at 31st entering this season on their list of drafted prospects. Moore and Dvorsky are 18th and 22nd respectively.

Dobber Hockey had Snuggy ranked slightly higher than Dvorsky (although I can't find their league-wide rankings and I'm not going to compare his score to other prospects around the league).

I can't find a single article/source that puts Snuggy below 31st and there is not consensus on whether he should be above or below Dvorsky and Moore. Halttunen doesn't appear on any of these rankings. We can quibble about how to order the rankings of Dvorsky/Moore/Snuggy, but they are absolutely in the same ballpark of prospect quality and are all miles ahead of Halttunen.

 

[STL fan in MN]

I dont disagree, however in 23-24.
8 out of the top 10 in points were 28+ years old
9 out of the top 14 in Goals were 28+ years old
8 out of the top 20 in Goals were 30+ years old

Age is one metric, however Games Played has to be considered as well.
You look at the 2013 draft class, Buch is 8th among forwards in points, yet he is 17th in forwards with Games Played.
The 517 Games played by Buch is not that high.
Keller is 4 years younger then Buch, and has played in more Regular Season games.
Buch spent a lot of time in the KHL before coming over, less games less physical wear on the body, etc.

I think you have to look at both age and Games played in the NHL.
I have zero issue with Buch getting 4-6 years. At 6 years playing 80 games per year, that puts him under 1000 NHL games played.

Look at guys that hit 1000 GP this season, which agian would be waht Buch would be hitting at the end of a 6 year deal.
Perron (47), Benn (60), Tavares (65), ROR (69), Stamkos (81), Marchand (67), Eberle (44), Duchene (65)

Do KHL games not cause wear and tear? Why are only NHL games counted?

While I’d concede that the NHL is more physical than the KHL and has an 82 game schedule vs 68, I’d argue that the impact of Buch playing his 18-20 year old seasons in the KHL vs AHL/NHL isn’t really going to result in a significant reduction of wear and tear from then to now. Some sort of marginal reduction in wear and tear, sure, I guess, but Father Time is undefeated.

And what the superstars of the game are doing at the top doesn’t really change the overall graph The Note posted or how it would likely apply to a good but not great forward like Buch.

 

[PerryTurnbullfan]

The Athletic has Snuggy ranked 19th among drafted prospects. Ahead of (and in a higher tier than) Moore and Dvorsky.

The Hockey Writers have him at #31 in their ranking of drafted prospects. Dvorsky and Moore are 17th and 20th respectively.

Craig Button at TSN has him ranked 15th on his list of the top 50 drafted prospects. He has Dvorsky at 26th and Moore is unranked.

Daily Faceoff had him at 31st entering this season on their list of drafted prospects. Moore and Dvorsky are 18th and 22nd respectively.

Dobber Hockey had Snuggy ranked slightly higher than Dvorsky (although I can't find their league-wide rankings and I'm not going to compare his score to other prospects around the league).

I can't find a single article/source that puts Snuggy below 31st and there is not consensus on whether he should be above or below Dvorsky and Moore. Halttunen doesn't appear on any of these rankings. We can quibble about how to order the rankings of Dvorsky/Moore/Snuggy, but they are absolutely in the same ballpark of prospect quality and are all miles ahead of Halttunen.

I don’t totally disagree with you and I get what you are saying with this years rankings. We will see if Snuggy rises or falls with a season away from superstars. I see a 30 goal guy that is a winger and top line player. I took your opinion and added to my offer as you make valid points. My offer to my friend was Halttunen, Edstrom swapping 14 and 16 + 33

 

[STL fan in MN]

The Athletic has Snuggy ranked 19th among drafted prospects. Ahead of (and in a higher tier than) Moore and Dvorsky.

The Hockey Writers have him at #31 in their ranking of drafted prospects. Dvorsky and Moore are 17th and 20th respectively.

Craig Button at TSN has him ranked 15th on his list of the top 50 drafted prospects. He has Dvorsky at 26th and Moore is unranked.

Daily Faceoff had him at 31st entering this season on their list of drafted prospects. Moore and Dvorsky are 18th and 22nd respectively.

Dobber Hockey had Snuggy ranked slightly higher than Dvorsky (although I can't find their league-wide rankings and I'm not going to compare his score to other prospects around the league).

I can't find a single article/source that puts Snuggy below 31st and there is not consensus on whether he should be above or below Dvorsky and Moore. Halttunen doesn't appear on any of these rankings. We can quibble about how to order the rankings of Dvorsky/Moore/Snuggy, but they are absolutely in the same ballpark of prospect quality and are all miles ahead of Halttunen.

Yes, the rankings which average probably around 6 months old suggest Snuggerud is a top-30 prospect in the game. From actually watching these guys play though, I disagree. I like Snuggerud but I think he’s a bit overrated. I’d take Dvorsky over him 100x out of 100 for example and I have concerns about Dvorsky’s skating and ability to make plays at NHL speed. I don’t put together lists league-wide but I’d be shocked if I wouldn’t be able to come up with quite a bit more than 30 prospects I’d value more than Snuggy.

That said, I’m not super high on Halttunen either. His stock has certainly risen but I have the same concern with him that I did a year ago when he was draft eligible - his hockey sense. From a skills perspective, he’s actually quite comparable to Snuggerud. He’s a big boy with solid skill and a heck of a shot. But I think his hockey sense is going to limit him to being a 3rd line caliber guy.

That said, I see Snuggerud as a likely 2nd line caliber RW so while I wouldn’t make the trade Turnbull poses, I think the value is a lot closer than what people are giving it credit for.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

If we are trading any of Kyrou, Snuggy, or Bolduc I would much rather be getting a Defenseman (preferably in the 21-24 year old range) back. I'm not really interested in trading any of them just to get another forward and a draft pick.

 

[STL fan in MN]

I don’t totally disagree with you and I get what you are saying with this years rankings. We will see if Snuggy rises or falls with a season away from superstars. I see a 30 goal guy that is a winger and top line player. I took your opinion and added to my offer as you make valid points. My offer to my friend was Halttunen, Edstrom swapping 14 and 16 + 33

I don’t think the Sharks would consider that. Edstrom + pick 33 for Snuggerud would be a fair trade IMO.

But I really like Edstrom. Kid’s a monster. MBN gets a lot of hype in this year’s draft (and deservedly so I might add) but I’d say Edstrom is a very similar player. And he’s 6’3” and plays C, a higher value position.

Sharks aren’t giving up Edstrom though. Not after just recently acquiring him as the main piece for Hertl.

 

[Brian39]

Yes, the rankings which average probably around 6 months old suggest Snuggerud is a top-30 prospect in the game. From actually watching these guys play though, I disagree. I like Snuggerud but I think he’s a bit overrated. I’d take Dvorsky over him 100x out of 100 for example and I have concerns about Dvorsky’s skating and ability to make plays at NHL speed. I don’t put together lists league-wide but I’d be shocked if I wouldn’t be able to come up with quite a bit more than 30 prospects I’d value more than Snuggy.

That said, I’m not super high on Halttunen either. His stock has certainly risen but I have the same concern with him that I did a year ago when he was draft eligible - his hockey sense. From a skills perspective, he’s actually quite comparable to Snuggerud. He’s a big boy with solid skill and a heck of a shot. But I think his hockey sense is going to limit him to being a 3rd line caliber guy.

That said, I see Snuggerud as a likely 2nd line caliber RW so while I wouldn’t make the trade Turnbull poses, I think the value is a lot closer than what people are giving it credit for.

I also have Dvorsky ahead of Snuggy by a noticeable margin. I consider Snuggy to be firmly our 2nd best prospect with Dvorsky firmly #1 and then a gap between Snuggy and everyone else. I like Snuggy enough that I don't believe that whoever we get at #16 this year will surpass him.

I'm not sure I'd have Moore ahead of Snuggy and if I did it wouldn't be by a large margin. I've been lower on Moore than a lot of people since pre-draft last year and I'm not wild about him as an NHL center. He's not a big guy, but he also isn't small. Every time I watch him, I feel like he's getting pushed around too much for someone his size. I see people talking about himm bulking up, but he's not exactly a wet noodle right now. I also don't see an NHL-caliber shot. I love his speed and hockey sense, but I'm not sure he has the tools to ever be able to get to scoring areas and beat NHL goals with regularity. I see a lot of paths where he winds up as a 1 dimensional playmaking winger that plays almost exclusively on the perimeter. He very well might develop into much more than that, but (just like Snuggy) I see enough warts to have doubts.

My personal list would have Snuggy much more in the '30th' range than the teens, but I wouldn't say that I'd have quite a bit more than 30 prospects who I'd value higher in a vacuum. Snuggy's shot is truly elite and even if the rest of his game falls well short of his potential, he already has a single dimension that is incredibly hard to find in the NHL. I have him firmly in that range of players (like Moore) who have 1 clear top tier tool that will allow them to at least be an effective NHL player with a chance to become something special.

 

[PerryTurnbullfan]

I don’t think the Sharks would consider that. Edstrom + pick 33 for Snuggerud would be a fair trade IMO.

But I really like Edstrom. Kid’s a monster. MBN gets a lot of hype in this year’s draft (and deservedly so I might add) but I’d say Edstrom is a very similar player. And he’s 6’3” and plays C, a higher value position.

Sharks aren’t giving up Edstrom though. Not after just recently acquiring him as the main piece for Hertl.

I don’t think so either. Haha. Ask for the moon…

 

[PerryTurnbullfan]

I also have Dvorsky ahead of Snuggy by a noticeable margin. I consider Snuggy to be firmly our 2nd best prospect with Dvorsky firmly #1 and then a gap between Snuggy and everyone else. I like Snuggy enough that I don't believe that whoever we get at #16 this year will surpass him.

I'm not sure I'd have Moore ahead of Snuggy and if I did it wouldn't be by a large margin. I've been lower on Moore than a lot of people since pre-draft last year and I'm not wild about him as an NHL center. He's not a big guy, but he also isn't small. Every time I watch him, I feel like he's getting pushed around too much for someone his size. I see people talking about himm bulking up, but he's not exactly a wet noodle right now. I also don't see an NHL-caliber shot. I love his speed and hockey sense, but I'm not sure he has the tools to ever be able to get to scoring areas and beat NHL goals with regularity. I see a lot of paths where he winds up as a 1 dimensional playmaking winger that plays almost exclusively on the perimeter. He very well might develop into much more than that, but (just like Snuggy) I see enough warts to have doubts.

My personal list would have Snuggy much more in the '30th' range than the teens, but I wouldn't say that I'd have quite a bit more than 30 prospects who I'd value higher in a vacuum. Snuggy's shot is truly elite and even if the rest of his game falls well short of his potential, he already has a single dimension that is incredibly hard to find in the NHL. I have him firmly in that range of players (like Moore) who have 1 clear top tier tool that will allow them to at least be an effective NHL player with a chance to become something special.

It would be will smith. I mistyped before.

 

[STL fan in MN]

I also have Dvorsky ahead of Snuggy by a noticeable margin. I consider Snuggy to be firmly our 2nd best prospect with Dvorsky firmly #1 and then a gap between Snuggy and everyone else. I like Snuggy enough that I don't believe that whoever we get at #16 this year will surpass him.

I'm not sure I'd have Moore ahead of Snuggy and if I did it wouldn't be by a large margin. I've been lower on Moore than a lot of people since pre-draft last year and I'm not wild about him as an NHL center. He's not a big guy, but he also isn't small. Every time I watch him, I feel like he's getting pushed around too much for someone his size. I see people talking about himm bulking up, but he's not exactly a wet noodle right now. I also don't see an NHL-caliber shot. I love his speed and hockey sense, but I'm not sure he has the tools to ever be able to get to scoring areas and beat NHL goals with regularity. I see a lot of paths where he winds up as a 1 dimensional playmaking winger that plays almost exclusively on the perimeter. He very well might develop into much more than that, but (just like Snuggy) I see enough warts to have doubts.

My personal list would have Snuggy much more in the '30th' range than the teens, but I wouldn't say that I'd have quite a bit more than 30 prospects who I'd value higher in a vacuum. Snuggy's shot is truly elite and even if the rest of his game falls well short of his potential, he already has a single dimension that is incredibly hard to find in the NHL. I have him firmly in that range of players (like Moore) who have 1 clear top tier tool that will allow them to at least be an effective NHL player with a chance to become something special.

I never mentioned Moore. I don’t really like Moore. I mean, I like him but I was adamant last season I thought he was overrated as he’s also someone where I question his hockey sense. Blazing speed and he works hard but…does it actually lead to a lot of great offensive plays? Meh. I value Snuggerud a fair bit more. But anyway, Turnbull said he meant to write Will Smith there anyway so let’s stop talking about freaking Oliver Moore.

I also see Snuggy as our #2 but I don’t see a ton of separation. I see Dvorsky, Snuggerud, Stenberg, Lindstein and Bolduc at all about the same tier. That’s how I’d order them but I value all of them pretty highly…but not super high. I think compared to most here, I’m a little lower on Dvorsky and Snuggerud and a little higher on Stenberg, Lindstein and Bolduc. Am I right? Who knows. But that’s how I see it.

 

[PerryTurnbullfan]

Will smith is a Shark not Moore. That’s who I meant to say. I got them mixed up.

 

[Brian39]

Will smith is a Shark not Moore. That’s who I meant to say. I got them mixed up.

That makes much, much more sense lol.