Blue Bullet Draft Pick Value Chart

[Blue Bullet]

Blue Bullet Draft Pick Value Chart (2017 Update)

It is popular these days to do a value chart for draft selections. Recently on TSN, Travis Yost did one based on adjusted games played which is a good starting point. However, it misses the fact that games played only measure the quantity not the quality of games played. For those following along to my blog, you will know that most of my research has been in trying to group forwards and defenseman based on quality of play using career avg PPG for forwards and career ATOI for defensemen. Combining my work with the fantastic work done by Michael Schuckers I was able to come up with a value chart for first year eligible forwards and defenseman. These are the results:

I also look into some trade scenarios for the 2016 draft using my draft pick value chart. For example, if the Leafs traded down to 2nd overall Yost suggests all the Jets need to add is the 96th overall pick. My chart suggests otherwise.

To read more, CLICK HERE

Click to read more...

 

[67Cup]

Thanks for this. Why is there a sudden drop in value for D-men between 29 and 30? The curve is relatively smooth (and resembles other efforts) exceot for that dramatic shift.

 

[Brock Radunske]

Not that it necessarily works this way but it's nice to see that pick 29 and 31 could potentially get as low as 14 in pick value

 

[Bernier the Boats]

Interesting that taking a forward is almost always more valuable at a given spot using your analysis.

 

[Nalyd Psycho]

Interesting that taking a forward is almost always more valuable at a given spot using your analysis.

Twice as many openings.

 

[arrbez]

Twice as many openings.

The most talented players at a young age probably skew more towards forward as well.

 

[57special]

radically different values for picks 1-4, but identical value for picks 5-7. Hmm. Draft your D from picks 73-5.

 

[cyris]

Very interesting thanks.
I would be interested in seeing some of the raw data but overall a good piece to read.

PPG and ATOI are much better metrics than games played, not perfect but no single stat is going to be.
Out of curiosity how many drafts did you use as a sample size and did you try to figure out a way of valuing drafted goaltenders?
Seems sample size could be a problem in the first round especially near the top of it.

 

[Blue Bullet]

It is popular these days to do a value chart for draft selections. Recently on TSN, Travis Yost did one based on adjusted games played which is a good starting point. However, it misses the fact that games played only measure the quantity not the quality of games played. For those following along to my blog, you will know that most of my research has been in trying to group forwards and defenseman based on quality of play using career avg PPG for forwards and career ATOI for defensemen. Combining my work with the fantastic work done by Michael Schuckers I was able to come up with a value chart for first year eligible forwards and defenseman. These are the results:

I also look into some trade scenarios for the 2016 draft using my draft pick value chart. For example, if the Leafs traded down to 2nd overall Yost suggests all the Jets need to add is the 96th overall pick. My chart suggests otherwise.

To read more, CLICK HERE

The Blue Bullet Draft Pick Value Chart has been updated and expanded to include all 7 rounds.

To read more CLICK HERE

 

[Stizzle]

Awesome work. Much appreciated.

 

[Blue Bullet]

As one can see the draft is tremendously top heavy in value

 

[tony d]

Thanks for posting this. Certainly interesting.