Blake Wheeler - on track?

[trahans99]

Okay its been 2 years now since Phoenix shocked the hockey world. I know its still early to judge how his NHL career will be (if he makes it) but how has he progressed the past 2 years? What was his potential 2 years ago and what is it today?

I know when he was drafted he was going to be a project and probably take 3-4 years to make it to the show, is he still on track?

Thanks

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[PhoPhan]

As you said, he was drafted as a project, and will likely finish out his NCAA eligibility at Minnesota. Compared to the other guys in the draft, it's looking less and less like it was such a reach to take him at #5. I still feel as though he has first line potential.

As for progress, after a great year in high school that led to his high draft spot, Blake went to the USHL (he hadn't yet graduated high school) and was a very good player on a very bad team, leading the team in goals and assists as a rookie and making the all-star team. Last year he played at Minnesota and went through some typical freshman growing pains , but put together a decent campaign overall. Next year he should be much more comfortable as he will have already had a year of NCAA hockey under his belt. Also, as he gets more and more accustomed to his size (he's still getting bigger), he should become a more dynamic player.

 

[Kritty]

I knew about him at the time he was picked so was one that wasn't totally shocked that he got taken where he did. Still a bit high, but his upside is worth the risk. He had a solid year last year with Minnesota. Showed flashes of what he is capable of. With graduations and pro signings, he should see more icetime as a sophomore and there will be a better idea of the impact he'll have. I can't see him coming out early. I would definitely say he is a 1st line prospect from what I've seen.

 

[Dr.Sens(e)]

If I had to rank all the forwards in the first half of the first round, I would probably put Wheeler last. Olesz and Ladd have already made the NHL, Tukonen has been a solid pick, Stafford is a year older, but was well ahead of Wheeler at the same age and Radulov is probably the third best forward in the draft at this point behind Ovechkin and Malkin (although some might argue Olesz or even Tukonen). Picard is probably the one guy you might make an argument Wheeler is on pace with given he is almost a year younger than Picard, but Picard had a very respectable pro debut this year and even played a few games in Columbus.

Wheeler has a long way to go before the Yotes even consider him ready to play in the bigs.

I acknowledge that Wheeler still has the upside to close the gap and pass some of these guys, but at some point is offence will have to pick up the pace. As of now, it looks like a bad pick in my book, but it's certainly too early to make any definitive judgements.

 

[Transported Upstater]

Picking Wheeler reminded me of the Brian Boyle pick by Los Angeles in 2003; big, rangy American high schooler who happened to be incredibly raw at time of draft.

Wheeler has a long way to go yet. I also recommend he play at least 2 more years at Minnesota, and possibly three.

 

[Jori]

Wheeler should definately stay at Minny through at least his junior season. He's definately a project, but I think the Yotes risk and patience will eventually pay off.

 

[PhoPhan]

If I had to rank all the forwards in the first half of the first round, I would probably put Wheeler last. Olesz and Ladd have already made the NHL, Tukonen has been a solid pick, Stafford is a year older, but was well ahead of Wheeler at the same age and Radulov is probably the third best forward in the draft at this point behind Ovechkin and Malkin (although some might argue Olesz or even Tukonen). Picard is probably the one guy you might make an argument Wheeler is on pace with given he is almost a year younger than Picard, but Picard had a very respectable pro debut this year and even played a few games in Columbus.

Simply getting to the NHL faster doesn't make you better.

Of all the forwards in the first half of the first round (only 10, which would make Wheeler not so much the reach everyone makes him out to be), I'd say Wheeler is somewhere in the middle. Ovechkin and Malkin are better without question, and I'd rather have Radulov. There aren't too many other guys I'd pick over Blake at this point.

 

[King'sPawn]

Picking Wheeler reminded me of the Brian Boyle pick by Los Angeles in 2003; big, rangy American high schooler who happened to be incredibly raw at time of draft.

Wheeler has a long way to go yet. I also recommend he play at least 2 more years at Minnesota, and possibly three.

Completely different circumstances though, in my opinion. Boyle was taken 26th overall, in a draft when the Kings had 3 first round picks. I'm certainly no professional scout, but I think the Wheeler pick at 5 overall was bad. I still think a trade down could have been done.

But it could work out just fine, which would be good for the Coyotes. I know I'm happy with Boyle's progress, so hopefully they'll have similar fortunes with Wheeler.

 

[Kritty]

If I had to rank all the forwards in the first half of the first round, I would probably put Wheeler last. Olesz and Ladd have already made the NHL, Tukonen has been a solid pick, Stafford is a year older, but was well ahead of Wheeler at the same age and Radulov is probably the third best forward in the draft at this point behind Ovechkin and Malkin (although some might argue Olesz or even Tukonen). Picard is probably the one guy you might make an argument Wheeler is on pace with given he is almost a year younger than Picard, but Picard had a very respectable pro debut this year and even played a few games in Columbus.

Wheeler has a long way to go before the Yotes even consider him ready to play in the bigs.

I acknowledge that Wheeler still has the upside to close the gap and pass some of these guys, but at some point is offence will have to pick up the pace. As of now, it looks like a bad pick in my book, but it's certainly too early to make any definitive judgements.

That's a very narrow-minded approach to take. You are basing the best pick solely on who is in the NHL first. Big deal. A guy gets a cup of coffee so the big team can see what they can do. When Wheeler was drafted the intention was always to develop him slowly because he was behind people on the learning curve. I'm with some of the others, I would take Wheeler over most forwards in the 1st round based on his upside. And you need to remember, he was a freshman. It's not often that freshmen have big offensive seasons in NCAA. You'll see with more icetime this season he'll produce more offensively. Far from a bad pick.

 

[Transported Upstater]

Completely different circumstances though, in my opinion. Boyle was taken 26th overall, in a draft when the Kings had 3 first round picks. I'm certainly no professional scout, but I think the Wheeler pick at 5 overall was bad. I still think a trade down could have been done.

But it could work out just fine, which would be good for the Coyotes. I know I'm happy with Boyle's progress, so hopefully they'll have similar fortunes with Wheeler.

Oh, I know they were much different circumstances.

But the two players, at the time, reminded me of each other, and they were similar in the way that they both needed plenty of NCAA development time, and that the fruits of the scouting staff's labor wouldn't be realized for years.

I think Phoenix made a huge gamble, and should have traded down if they wanted Wheeler, but you never know if some other team may have taken him or not, I guess...

 

[hbk]

Based on the handful of games that I saw, I have Wheeler as a 3rd line power winger. Yes, he has potential for more but he has a long ways to go. He looked like a player who was learning a system and unsure of positioning and lacked the confidence to do anything offensively that would bring you out of your seat. The potential is there though. Next year I could be singing an entirely different tune. Keep in mind he went from nowhere on anyone's top prospects chart to a Top 25 prospect according to the Hockey News. Premature? I think so but we've yet to see the best of Wheeler.

 

[X-SHARKIE]

I saw Blake play for Breck High School his senior year, saw him a half dozen times at Greenbay, and then a whole bunch of times on t.v. and twice live with Minnesota.

He looked like he had the pure ability and hockey sense to be a first liner in the NHL some day while dominating Minnesota High School hockey, and I think you can remove the boom or bust tag from him. However, I think he'll top out as a second liner when it's all said and done. The higher the competition level, the more bland he comes from my observations. He shows all the tools to be a very effective third liner and will probally play on the second line some times as well, but I don't see a future star in the league or even a first liner, something I would expect from the 5th overall pick. His speed hasn't improved and it doesn't stand out against higher competition and despite his long reach and soft hands he needs to protect the puck better,and his narrow minded rushes with the puck where he tries to do it all on his own don't work either. He'll need to work on creating and using his line mates. He did develope more of a physical edge and a defensive game over the years now and I see him being an effective player in the NHL. But 5th overall is still a reach.

 

[King'sPawn]

Oh, I know they were much different circumstances.

But the two players, at the time, reminded me of each other, and they were similar in the way that they both needed plenty of NCAA development time, and that the fruits of the scouting staff's labor wouldn't be realized for years.

I think Phoenix made a huge gamble, and should have traded down if they wanted Wheeler, but you never know if some other team may have taken him or not, I guess...

Oh, all right. We're in agreement then

 

[Juan]

I saw Blake play for Breck High School his senior year, saw him a half dozen times at Greenbay, and then a whole bunch of times on t.v. and twice live with Minnesota.

He looked like he had the pure ability and hockey sense to be a first liner in the NHL some day while dominating Minnesota High School hockey, and I think you can remove the boom or bust tag from him. However, I think he'll top out as a second liner when it's all said and done. The higher the competition level, the more bland he comes from my observations. He shows all the tools to be a very effective third liner and will probally play on the second line some times as well, but I don't see a future star in the league or even a first liner, something I would expect from the 5th overall pick. His speed hasn't improved and it doesn't stand out against higher competition and despite his long reach and soft hands he needs to protect the puck better,and his narrow minded rushes with the puck where he tries to do it all on his own don't work either. He'll need to work on creating and using his line mates. He did develope more of a physical edge and a defensive game over the years now and I see him being an effective player in the NHL. But 5th overall is still a reach.

Are you talking about Blake Wheeler or Jeff Taffe?

Taffe, a better high school player and likely a better college player than Wheeler, raised some eyebrows at #30. Wheeler at #5 was a joke, considering where the Coyotes could have had him.

I'll give the Coyotes credit for taking a shot, though.

 

[PhoPhan]

Alright, buddy. Where could the Coyotes have taken him?

 

[J17 Vs Proclamation]

Alright, buddy. Where could the Coyotes have taken him?

They could have traded down about 5 spots atleast IMO. He still is a reach at #5, but no doubt he has the potential to justify being a top 10 selection.

Hey, im not complaining. The Coyotes taking Wheeler meant Olesz was gonna be on the table for the panthers.

 

[Chrisd]

well

I've seen a lot of wheeler.....

I'm a huge gopher fan and love to give them praise...

but he's just simply been underwhelming, beyond his frame, there isn't much there...not much puck awareness, touch, finishing ability, no great vision.

I know he dominated at the HS level and stuff thats all well and good....

But it would shock me more if he turns out good then if he becomes a bust.

 

[Dr.Sens(e)]

That's a very narrow-minded approach to take. You are basing the best pick solely on who is in the NHL first. Big deal. A guy gets a cup of coffee so the big team can see what they can do. When Wheeler was drafted the intention was always to develop him slowly because he was behind people on the learning curve. I'm with some of the others, I would take Wheeler over most forwards in the 1st round based on his upside. And you need to remember, he was a freshman. It's not often that freshmen have big offensive seasons in NCAA. You'll see with more icetime this season he'll produce more offensively. Far from a bad pick.

Well, I'm not sure which player you're referring to about the cup of coffee (Picard I'm guessing), but my main point is all the other forwards have shown more at a higher level of competition than Wheeler at this point. If he were a dominant college player, that would be one thing, but he is going through the growing pains again much inferior competition. I know he doesn't get the ice time, but neither are many of the other forwards from the top 15. I've acknowledged he can still and may surpass some of those other forwards. But Olesz and Tukonen have shown a lot more skill and polish than Wheeler has, and I don't think Wheeler has really demonstrated major upside yet. From all reports, he has looked solid, but doesn't really have the high end skills some thought he might based on his high school play. I don't think he has the skillset or upside of Olesz, Tukonen or Radulov, and Picard and Ladd are both going to be great character 2nd/3rd liners at this point. Wheeler might have more upside than the last two, but he has a long way to go to just catch them in terms of his development. I think most GM's would put him any where from 4th to 6th in ranking those 6 forwards, which on the whole, means the Yotes probably did reach for him too early. But hey, he was there guy so they took him. We'll see how it turns out.

 

[Dominator13]

I'd so like to read a 2004 draft day thread and what people wrote when the pick was done, anyone?

 

[BD]

good to see thats he's moving along. i was wondering about him the other day. i think, for whatever reason, Yotes were afraid someone would pick him. whole thing was weird b/c there is simply no way he should have been #5. and here is the question i pose....if, as some puport, that he needs another 2 or 3 years...should a team draft in the 1st round a player that may need 5 years to break-thru??? I subscribe, especially in the Yotes needs and level at the time...no. It was a bad move, despite the upsides that MIGHT pay off in a few years. Could the Yotes have been better served with another pick or dropping in the draft...making two latter 1st round picks, perhaps, instead.

Whats done is done...but still, that pick I will always remember and I just can't subscribe to doing it, no matter how i plays devils advocate. I wish him the best and really hopes he becomes the player they need.

 

[Vipers]

Alright, buddy. Where could the Coyotes have taken him?

Not taking him at all.
There was a lot of other good players classed ahead of him.
For more info. go to the Whheler thread of sept. 20, 2004.

 

[SOLR]

Personnaly I see Olez probably as the raw talent in the bunch, the one close to Ovech-Malkin, but that needs to get stronger and better conditioning. Horton and Olez will make some noises on the first line soon. Radulov, well good player thats for sure, but I dont see him establishing his game fast in the NHL. The fact that he wasnt in the AHL says a lot. Radu in the AHL next year.

I was very surprised by Wheeler selection, hes still a project witch is worrying a bit.

 

[hbk]

Last THN Future Watch ranked Wheeler at 25.

Ahead of:
Montoya
and
Tukonen
to name a few.

Not saying that was correct but I am saying that seeing Wheeler's name on that list at all indicates that he is taking huge steps and that the scouts are noticing.

The Wheeler selection has been discussed at nauseum. This year is the litmus test.

 

[Gwyddbwyll]

should a team draft in the 1st round a player that may need 5 years to break-thru??? I subscribe, especially in the Yotes needs and level at the time...no. It was a bad move, despite the upsides that MIGHT pay off in a few years. Could the Yotes have been better served with another pick or dropping in the draft...making two latter 1st round picks, perhaps, instead.

I think you're misunderstanding the Yotes needs at the time. The franchise's system at the time was both relatively bare (with no 1st or 2nd rounder from the outstanding 2003 draft) and limited in upside with selections such as Koreis, Eager, Sjostrom, Spiller. All of these were "safe" and "sensible" picks and none had impact potential. Secondly, another two prospects with the brightest potential, Kolanos and Podlesak had succumbed to repeated concussions.

So in 2004, you have a franchise with not much impact potential in their future to help any rebuilding efforts, plus one fearful of players with concussion history (Olesz). Also the draft was considered to be extremely top heavy - it has since proven to be much better than first thought but we are dealing with what was known at that time. The drop off from Ovechkin/Malkin to Ladd the #3 forward selected is still ginormous.

Hence they opted for the shortcut and rolled the dice with Wheeler, rather than make yet another "safe" selection. Also it was the first time the Coyotes as a franchise have ever had a top 10 pick- they really needed a star player, not another mediocre NHLer. They seem to be cursed by weak draft years every time they pick high or have multiple first rounders.

A comment on Wheeler's development - slow starts are a feature of his progress thus far, he seems to really improve as he gets more comfortable at that level. Boyle may have gone 26th but that was in a vastly stronger draft year, in which another huge project, Hugh Jessiman, went 12th.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

While I think it was a stretch to take Wheeler at five, it was widely believed that he wouldn't have lasted much longer in his draft year (I believe the Isles were keen on him) so there was more than one team willing to take him high.

Wheeler was drafted as a project, a potential home run, but a project nonetheless and he remains as such. This will be a key year in his development considering he will have much more responsibility and ice time. From my many viewings of Minnesota, I see a very awkward kid still growing into his frame. He skates very well for his size, has excellent hands, and is a tremendous passer. He doesn't have a killer instinct and doesn't really play physical, so he's going to have to make his mark in the offensive zone to be noticed and effective.

I'm not sure if he has first line upside, but I can definately see him playing on a scoring line in the NHL, especially will a couple of waterbug types who can spread the ice for him.