Prospect Info: Biggest Prospect Bust Post 2006

[Freudian]

Pracey became head scout in 2009 and have done well with second rounders. O'Reilly, Elliott, Pickard, Heard and Bigras. Jury is still out on most of them, but they look to have a decent shot at being NHLers.

 

[henchman21]

For me it was a tie between Delmas and Gaunce. Went with Gaunce as I got my hopes up more with him, but Delmas was hyped more in my opinion. Boy was that draft terrible, all we have to remember it by is Olver iirc.

What's funny is people say the Avs are with 2nds and then we put up a list of terrible 2nds.

I read a study somewhere that said about 60% of first round picks play over 200 games in the NHL (60 for goalies IIRC), second rounders are around 25%, third and beyond is about 12%.

Our last 10 2nd round picks are:

2013: Chris Bigras
2012: Mitchell Heard
2011: None
2010: Calvin Pickard
2009: Ryan O'Reilly, Stefan Elliott
2008:Cameron Gaunce, Peter Delmas
2007:Colby Cohen, Trevor Cann, TJ Galiardi

Out of those 2 have played over 200 games. A couple more have good shots at it. Now that isn't entirely fair because players beyond the middle of the first round usually take a couple years to develop in the full time NHL players. I'd say the Avs are about average, but maybe a bit above in the 2nd round.

In later years the Avs have really improved in the first round (at least partially due to positioning) and hit on a vast majority of those picks. Hishon is the only example since Jonas Johansson in 2002 to be a bust (5 out of 6 for a 83% hit rate).

 

[Bonzai12]

It sounds like we have differing interpretation of bust and some use it more to mean disappointment in a general sense and some define it as not having talent/drive to turn into a good hockey player.

It's incredibly hard to tell if a guy doesn't have the talent/drive. Sometimes players just need change of scenery, but in today's NHL organizations hold on to prospects for dear life hoping they will pan out while paying little to nothing financially and zero risk of the player being able to bolt in UFA.

Look what happened to Boychuk. If this thread was up here 6 years ago, we would have said he was lazy and a dog. But that wasn't the case at all - just wrong system and time/place.

 

[Avs71]

It's too bad that Stepan came right after Gaunce, and then two picks later was Hamonic. Gaunce had a very impressive junior resume.

His 40 points that season led all defensemen on the roster and prompted the honor of being named to the OHL All-Star Rookie team. He was also 12th in the league for points by a defenseman and awarded the Tim Horton Defenseman of the Year trophy. Quite an accomplishment for a 17-year-old rookie.

Gaunce improved on those figures in 2008-2009. In 67 games, he scored 17 goals and 47 assists for 64 points. As expected, he also amassed 110 PIMs. At the end of the season, he ranked 5th of all OHL defensemen in points and led the league in assists and plus/minus. He was Mississauga's Most Valuable Player and, once again, received the Tim Horton Defenseman of the Year award. The Eastern Conference coaches voted him the Best Defensive Defenseman that season, and he was a top-3 finalist for the Smartest Player, Best Playmaker and Best Offensive Defenseman awards.

-MHH

Had a lot of hype around him, especially since he was the Avs first pick of that draft.

 

[Nalens Oga]

Our development of dmen was REALLY bad imo. Might still be to be honest. I dunno how they screwed up Cam Gaunce so bad, he was safe to at least be a 4th/5th dman.

 

[avsfan09]

I'm starting to suspect Nermark was Avs throwing their Euro scouts a bone, to acknowledge they exist.

Seems like they did that once again this year.

http://www.hockeysfuture.com/prospects/wilhelm-westlund/

 

[henchman21]

Our development of dmen was REALLY bad imo. Might still be to be honest. I dunno how they screwed up Cam Gaunce so bad, he was safe to at least be a 4th/5th dman.

Hard to say with Gaunce. He might have been one of those people that physically peaked early and couldn't transition to playing against bigger and tougher opponents. I watched part of the Texas - Oklahoma City game last week and he looked pretty bad there and was playing on the third pairing.

 

[RoyIsALegend]

Hard to say with Gaunce. He might have been one of those people that physically peaked early and couldn't transition to playing against bigger and tougher opponents. I watched part of the Texas - Oklahoma City game last week and he looked pretty bad there and was playing on the third pairing.

His 2011/12 season showed his potential and that he could handle the bigger and faster forwards at the pro level.

2011/12 season for Gaunce:

75 GP
6 goals
21 assists
27 points
90 PIM
+17

The next closest Monster in +/- was Greg Mauldin at +5. Gaunce was averaging 21 minutes a night for Lake Erie and was a beast.

The Avalanche ruined Gaunce by continuously giving scrubs opportunities over him. Sorry, but we screwed that one up and I don't care that he sucks now. He was ruined for 2 years and then we shipped him off. The player he is today is not what he could have been if he was groomed properly 2 years ago.

 

[InjuredChoker]

I read a study somewhere that said about 60% of first round picks play over 200 games in the NHL (60 for goalies IIRC), second rounders are around 25%, third and beyond is about 12%.

http://oilersnation.com/2011/2/25/value-in-acquiring-draft-picks

Here is a breakdown of the each round during this ten-year span.

FIRST ROUND (286 picks)

25 became dominant players. (8.8%)
148 turned into decent players. (51.7%)
113 were short lived or busts (39.5%)

Of the 25 dominant players, 17 of them came in the top ten picks of a round.

SECOND ROUND (326 picks)

4 became dominant players. (1.2%)
70 turned into decent players. (21.5%)
252 were short lived or busts. (77.3%)

Similar piece from Cullen, 2009

and then there is this paper.

Position Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Round 5 Round 6 Round 7 Total Overall
Probability
F 0.35 0.18 0.17 0.08 0.10 0.09 0.03 306 25%
D 0.43 0.12 0.14 0.08 0.06 0.09 0.08 145 21%
G 0.33 0.25 0.08 0.11 0.09 0.06 0.08 36 19%

that chart is much easier to read from the paper, but can't copy it and not enough time to make it myself.

 

[henchman21]

Lots of players have good AHL (and NHL for that matter) seasons early and regress. I'm not saying the Avalanche didn't screw him up, but I'm not saying that they did for sure. Gaunce was good in 10-11 and in 11-12, but when 12-13 came around he couldn't keep his spot. Could have been coaching and differences in styles that caused Gaunce to regress or it could have been that Gaunce just regressed himself. If he rebounds in Texas, we will know the answer to that pretty easily, if he doesn't rebound, it is hard to determine.

I should add in this post that I think the development of young players with Lake Erie has been pretty poor in general. Like most AHL teams there is the dilemma of putting the emphasis on trying to win now for your franchise and fans, or trying to develop young players. From what I can tell Lake Erie management has tried to balance this and has done a very poor job of it. From the sounds of it, this is something Roy wanted to change when he came here and put more of the emphasis on development. So now we have Lake Erie trying to run the same systems and fundamental drills that the Avs are running. This may not help Lake Erie win games, but it should help players develop.

 

[member 116861]

Seems like they did that once again this year.

http://www.hockeysfuture.com/prospects/wilhelm-westlund/

I heard that Westlund was a really good pick.

 

[S E P H]

I am not a "what if" man, but here is what could have been,

2006
#51 Williams over #54 Artem Anisimov, #57 Mike Weber
#59 Burki over #63 Jamie McBain, #71 Brad Marchand, #72 Cal Clutterbuck

2007
#45 Cohen over #47 Dana Tyrell, #58 Nick Spaling, #61 Wayne Simmonds
#49 Cann over #58 Nick Spaling, #61 Wayne Simmonds

2008 (As Avs71 already mentioned)
Adam Foote trade over #18 Luca Sbisa
#50 Gaunce over #51 Derek Stepan, #53 Travis Hamonic, #55 Marco Scandella
#61 Delmas over nobody important

2010
#95 Silas over #103 John Ramage, #104 Hakanpaa, #110 Tom Kuhnhackl

2011
#93 Nermark over #96 Jean-Gabriel Pageau, #97 Josiah Didier, #99 Reid Boucher, #104 John Gaudreau, #107 Colin Jacobs, #111 Kale Kessy, #114 Tobias Rieder, #115 Marek Tvrdon, #118 Marcel Noebels

I tried to make it fair and take the players just a couple of spots after and not look for the Zetterbergs' and Quicks' of beyond the 4th round.

I heard that Westlund was a really good pick.

As a 7th rounder Westlund is a pretty solid pick, but Freudian might be right with Nermark. Thinking now that was Godawful pick due to who we could've had. I still wonder why he preferred to play 4th line minutes than head over to the CHL.

 

[Bonzai12]

good post seph. that puts it into perspective quite well

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

I am not a "what if" man, but here is what could have been,

2006
#51 Williams over #54 Artem Anisimov, #57 Mike Weber
#59 Burki over #63 Jamie McBain, #71 Brad Marchand, #72 Cal Clutterbuck

2007
#45 Cohen over #47 Dana Tyrell, #58 Nick Spaling, #61 Wayne Simmonds
#49 Cann over #58 Nick Spaling, #61 Wayne Simmonds

2008 (As Avs71 already mentioned)
Adam Foote trade over #18 Luca Sbisa
#50 Gaunce over #51 Derek Stepan, #53 Travis Hamonic, #55 Marco Scandella
#61 Delmas over nobody important

2010
#95 Silas over #103 John Ramage, #104 Hakanpaa, #110 Tom Kuhnhackl

2011
#93 Nermark over #96 Jean-Gabriel Pageau, #97 Josiah Didier, #99 Reid Boucher, #104 John Gaudreau, #107 Colin Jacobs, #111 Kale Kessy, #114 Tobias Rieder, #115 Marek Tvrdon, #118 Marcel Noebels

I tried to make it fair and take the players just a couple of spots after and not look for the Zetterbergs' and Quicks' of beyond the 4th round.


As a 7th rounder Westlund is a pretty solid pick, but Freudian might be right with Nermark. Thinking now that was Godawful pick due to who we could've had. I still wonder why he preferred to play 4th line minutes than head over to the CHL.

Well, we have had some great picks as well, of course you will always find some better picks afterwards, It's just too easy. We have been drafting really well last 5 years and I see scouting as one of our strengths.

 

[InjuredChoker]

I am not a "what if" man, but here is what could have been,

2006
#51 Williams over #54 Artem Anisimov, #57 Mike Weber
#59 Burki over #63 Jamie McBain, #71 Brad Marchand, #72 Cal Clutterbuck

2007
#45 Cohen over #47 Dana Tyrell, #58 Nick Spaling, #61 Wayne Simmonds
#49 Cann over #58 Nick Spaling, #61 Wayne Simmonds

2008 (As Avs71 already mentioned)
Adam Foote trade over #18 Luca Sbisa
#50 Gaunce over #51 Derek Stepan, #53 Travis Hamonic, #55 Marco Scandella
#61 Delmas over nobody important

2010
#95 Silas over #103 John Ramage, #104 Hakanpaa, #110 Tom Kuhnhackl

2011
#93 Nermark over #96 Jean-Gabriel Pageau, #97 Josiah Didier, #99 Reid Boucher, #104 John Gaudreau, #107 Colin Jacobs, #111 Kale Kessy, #114 Tobias Rieder, #115 Marek Tvrdon, #118 Marcel Noebels

I tried to make it fair and take the players just a couple of spots after and not look for the Zetterbergs' and Quicks' of beyond the 4th round.


As a 7th rounder Westlund is a pretty solid pick, but Freudian might be right with Nermark. Thinking now that was Godawful pick due to who we could've had. I still wonder why he preferred to play 4th line minutes than head over to the CHL.

jori lehterä.

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

jori lehterä.

He wouldn't even come to NHL, so is he important? (He's very good player though, could be in NHL easily.)

 

[agentblack]

oh Stoa...

 

[Nihiliste]

Scouts can now determine when players are going to take elbows in the ear?

I've explained in detail my position on the Hishon pick many times but long story short I would have preferred some of the players taken after him regardless of the Mcnabb elbow. His size and durability were always a concern to me, when taken in comparison with a number of other very good players taken right in that range (Coyle, Etem, Bjugstad, Bennett, Tinordi etc)

 

[Alex Jones]

oh Stoa...

Slooooww and major league soft. What a bust.