For Heatley and Kovalchuk, I'm thinking something closer to $4M each.
This was the number that Waddell was talking about for these two before the lockout. He was talking about it in light of a less restrictive financial environment (ie, long before anyone knew there would be a cap, much less what its actual number might be). Kovalchuk may have been able to squeeze more out of the contract then, putting it anywhere between $4M and $5M. Heatley didn't have that much leverage coming off his injury.
I just can't see the team going any higher than $4M now that the finances are more restricted. Waddell and Hartley and the new owners will have to sell these two on the benefits of staying in Atlanta at a reasonable price. Given how the team looks and its prospects in the next couple years, that shouldn't be a tough sell.
And remember these are not the cheap, cold, heartless bast*rds that owned the team in its first 4.5 years. These owners gave the green light to add payroll in the last offseason we had. They've shown their willingness to improve the team, so the two kids will know that going into their individual negotiations. Not saying that these two and their agents won't try to squeeze every last dollar out of a new contract, because they will certainly try. But it's gonna be evident pretty quickly that the money just can't flow like before.
That's why I'm thinking that $4M would be the high number for either or both of their contracts, give or take. However it ends up, it will be interesting to see what these kids get in the next couple weeks.