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Most Turnovers By Player On Winnipeg Jets | StatMuse
Dylan DeMelo had the most giveaways for the Jets this season, with 60 given away.
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I've been saying it far before it ever became a problem. There should not be fixed lines or pairings on a roster. It does. not. work. And if your coach runs them, you change the coach and don't look back.There be a connection between those two points.
This is a team with two fixed lines and two fixed D pairings, so flexibility has to come with the 4th line, which is playing well, or the 2nd line, which isn't. Expect we'll see some moves there, and agree with others that we see a move on the 3rd pairing -- hadn't though about 88's value as a clear communicator, but definitely something in that.
Go Road Jerts!
I'm just going to ignore the strawman argument.
Let's start off by where we agree: have 27-23-73 been anywhere near good enough? No, not even close: in 19:09 of 5v5 TOI across two games, they're 45% CF% and a team-worst 30% xGF%; and have only generated one more HDCF than the Lowry line (3 vs 2). This is even more disappointing, considering they are given the majority of the minutes against COL's checking line of Wood-Colton-Kiviranta.
Now the question becomes: why? And I think as this thread has evolved, people have slowly begun to hover around the same point - some are a little more fiery than others, but the focus has been on Ehlers for his "big mistakes". But as some have pointed out, and I would agree with - he's the only one on that line with the puck to make mistakes with as WPG tries to get from their DZ and through the NZ! Not saying he had a perfect game and it was the 4 other players (and 1 other goaltender) that were worse than him at all times, but no wonder he's so divisive.
Garret has been tracking the microstats, and although I don't currently have the means to subscribe, he's at least posted a few things publically: this look at defencemen's attempts at exits (and entries) lays things out for me, IMO:
There's two things: first, any defencemen not named Morrissey are constantly chipping out the puck from the DZ 70%+ of the time (reverse of controlled exit %). Can't shoot the puck on net in the OZ if you are constantly giving the puck back to your opponent to "relieve pressure" in the DZ. Second: only Morrissey, Dillon, and DeMelo-ish have been "clean" in their exit attempts (be that chip outs or whatnot). Stanley looks "cleaner" than Samberg but that because 54 is the attempting to maintain possession, while 64 is just chipping it out (if he's not hitting his opponent).
Let's connect the dots. 27-23-73 are struggling for offence. Ehlers is carrying the load. They don't often start with the puck from their own DZ, nor do they get the opportunities to start with the puck in the OZF. And then we come to the crux - okay, something needs to change, if only the 44-2 pairing are treading water while every other line has been struggling (if Georgiev isn't letting in every second shot attempt).
All the while: the top line has at least scored some nice goals, but they've been gashed by COL's respective top 6 (especially when paired up with Pionk against them) - so your goaltender whose preferred style of play is to be "big-and-boring" has been facing 1.3 shots every minute of each game thus far, which drops to just under 1 if it's only unblocked shots. This is all with Bowness preferred hard matchups. None of that is simply good at all. You need to change it up.
So what do you change it to? Well again: neither Scheifele nor the coaching staff apparently trusts Ehlers on the top line, so 27-55-13 probably isn't an option. Maybe getting Schmidt in for Stanley could help some, if not just for on-ice results then at least for the vibes and communication on the ice (because there were certainly a lot of communication breakdowns to end that 2nd period, giving up three straight goals) - but you still have your best (and only) puck mover in Morrissey taking the heavy minutes with the Lowry line, as 5-4 continue to stink with any line. Oh, and that Lowry line is "unchangeable" too - that matchup line "only works" if 62 and 22 are with him, apparently. Perfetti has proven he's a top 12 player on this team, yet the coaching staff only likes him in top 6 roles (which feels very contradictory). We haven't even gotten to "unlocking" the whole point of acquiring Toffoli's ability to score (because again, the Jets are struggling to even have the puck on their sticks in dangerous areas to begin with).
These are all problems we've seen since January. This was always the risk, and the gamble that this coaching staff has made, and made very intentionally to end the year too when everyone was feeling good about the vibes on a nice little winning streak but just average underlying numbers: that if they could instill a lot of defensive structure, that the high-end talent of their top players would outscore and/or outsave all the other issues. When one or neither happens, these two games vs COL are what you get. And now the Jets might not realistically have a known answer to address them.
I’m with you bout Stanley he hasn’t been bad, I’ve expected worse, and he is not the reason we are losing but he is not essential and if it helps to take him out that’s what you do.I'd start Brossoit next game. Helle has choked in too many playoff series to get the benefit of the doubt from me. Brossoit is good so why not use him.
I'd also scratch Toffoli and Stanley. I don't think Stanley deserves to be scratched, but we need to improve our zone exits and the Stanley-Samberg pairing is not good under pressure.
Bones needs to light a fire under these guys before things get dire. No point in waiting until we are down 3-1 in the series.
Think of winning a round in the playoffs or going beyond like getting from point a to point b in a reasonable time. The way the Jets have chosen to go about it is building a highway and hoping for the best. The problem with a highway is that if something goes wrong, if there is an accident then all traffic is backed up.
Even before the series began most had taken it for granted that if the top line just breaks even it'd be a win, and then relying on the depth to make a difference with Helle holding strong. Special teams breaking even was the best case scenario (they are -2 so far on STs). Now there has been an accident on the highway (Helle is just normal, 2nd line is struggling) and all the traffic is starting to pile up.
The signs were there even in the win streak where the 5v5 underlying numbers were mediocre despite the win streak.
I totally get what you are saying, and I, despite being part of the problem, think Ehlers gets too much negative attention around here.This AWOL narrative is nuts... he set up Pionk for what should have been a tap in last game and came within a c-hair of getting us back in this game
Yeah I haven't hated him but I have disliked that pair. Pairing snerg with Miller accomplishes two things: gets Samberg on his natural side, and Miller guaranteed will have better zone exits, not just chipping the puck and turning over possession.I’m with you bout Stanley he hasn’t been bad, I’ve expected worse, and he is not the reason we are losing but he is not essential and if it helps to take him out that’s what you do.
I totally get what you are saying, and I, despite being part of the problem, think Ehlers gets too much negative attention around here.
However, at some point, a player needs to overcome wharves obstacles are hindering him, even if they aren't his making.
It's totally unfair, but it's a fact.
3 goals in 34 games just is not cutting it for a guy with the stats he has.
Connor gets lambasted around here (and not without some merit). But the guy puts the f***ing puck on the net and at the end of the day that's the point.
Yeah I haven't hated him but I have disliked that pair. Pairing snerg with Miller accomplishes two things: gets Samberg on his natural side, and Miller guaranteed will have better zone exits, not just chipping the puck and turning over possession.
The Jets simply need the puck more.
Has Villardi been the weak link defensively for the schief line as they seem to target his side more.
Could also be the fact I’m confusing Kc playing any d with being ok at it, therefore applauding any back checking. As he has seemed to pick up his game yet the line still gets hemmed in.Could be, but might be due to Pionk not managing the puck well in his end.
The Jets whole system and approach is built to maximize Hellebuyck. If he’s gonna regress in the playoffs again they are toastWe need our goalie to be way better then the oppositions goalie...If that happens we have a chance...If the goalies are even we lose 8 out of 10 times vs the Avs IMO
Before you ask I used a scientific calculator to come up with that ratio lol
How could anyone be surprised by the criticism of a goaltender letting in 10 goals in two games? I really like Connor. He seems like an amazing father and a truly decent human being, and frankly, somebody I would love to have lunch with and just pick their brain about life and fatherhood. I would go so far as to say that he could be a real role model as a father and as a person. But he's not being paid millions of dollars to be an awesome human and a great dad. He's being paid millions of dollars to be a venzina goaltender in the playoffs, not just the regular season. Of all the shit that has disappointed me in games one and two, his garbage play is at the top of the list.
Connor - Schief had been our best line this seriesHellebuyck getting shat on for allowing 10 goals so far - he's also faced 9 xG in these two games. Yes, that's underperformance. Yes, the team hasn't defended this bad all year.
Also, it is hilarious to see Bowness get seven-figures for not playing ESV. Any Jet who sees Connor and Scheifele on the ice together should just jump onto the ice and take a too many men call to stop this lunacy.
And goalieThey are, most definitely. But our systems and depth were supposed to be an equalizer.
Two of the 4 scored last night were because of him, and the breakaway by Manson probably should have been stopped. Say what you want, but 10 goals against in two games is not playoff goaltending.Lots of people crapping on Helly and making the broad brush statement about letting in 10 goals in two games. How about looking at the goals he has let in and breaking it down. Other than the one where he wandered last night I'm not seeing any really bad ones that you could say he absolutely should have stopped. They are mostly tips, screens, break aways and great shots. He's not been his best but he's not the problem.
Yup.Stan hasn't been bad but Schmidt gives you a better shot at adding some stability. With Pionk struggling so much they can't have 2 unpredictable pairings.
Playoff goalies consistently make saves they shouldn't. We aren't paying Helle to be average.Lots of people crapping on Helly and making the broad brush statement about letting in 10 goals in two games. How about looking at the goals he has let in and breaking it down. Other than the one where he wandered last night I'm not seeing any really bad ones that you could say he absolutely should have stopped. They are mostly tips, screens, break aways and great shots. He's not been his best but he's not the problem.
The man has been under seige and the biggest problem is the Avs are eating the Jets alive in our zone and for large parts of the game our team defense in our end is totally getting dominated. MacKinnon, Lehkonen, Rantanen and especially Nichushkin who has been a beast are totally dominating in our end for too many minutes. And their defense support at our blue line is totally bottling us in. MaKar, Toews and Manson are killing us too.
Hate to say it but some of our forwards (hell defensemen too) aren't built for playoff hockey. And if we think Pefetti is the answer... <<insert eyeroll emoji>>.
But it's only 1-1 and I think the Jets get back to Jets hockey for enough minutes to win in 7. Nobody plays their best hockey for 60 minutes every game.
I'm still glued to the bandwagon. But not saving seats anymore.
Yup... in order to win, we need Helle to make a couple of "how the f*** did he stop that" saves AND not let in any "he should have stopped that" goalsPlayoff goalies consistently make saves they shouldn't. We aren't paying Helle to be average.
Overall though I will agree with a lot of what has been said already: this team needs to figure out how to exit their zone in a controlled fashion without panicking and throwing it away. Every time we give the puck back to the Avs results in time spent in our zone instead of theirs.