Post-Game Talk: Avs 5 - Jets 2, Series tied at 1

[DRW204]

Ya I am not really trying to defend him here, I just think if Ehlers is off his game it will always be visible and that Toffoli/Monahan are also not doing anything on that line, its just easy to not make major mistakes when you basically don't touch the puck and do nothing out there.

ehlers has a higher standard. at 5v5 hockey: he is our top offensive creator at Fwd, & was one of the top players in the league in 5v5 pts, net on-ice goals for. so yea, him playing like trash and not producing will be more apparent than the other two.

 

[Jets 31]

Right is positive gamescore, left is negative. Gamescore is a weighted calculation of a player's contribution to the game.

See the Dude was right, don't know why you guys don't listen to me more.

 

[Stumbledore]

Fire Chevy! Fire Maurice! Tight turns! Trade Pavelec! Shutup Sawyer! F*ck Vegas! (did I miss anything?)

No, that pretty much sums up the angry fanboys' reaction in this place.

 

[surixon]

I wish Appleton was a main problem for this team but he's way down the list at the moment.

Hellebuyck simply must be better. He's being outdueled by f***ing georgiev.

Ehlers, Toffoli might as well not be dressed.

Stanley and Samberg as a pair are being exposed.

I've liked Schiefele and Connor for better and worse is playing the way he always does. I have liked his involvement in the backcheck.

We need more from Monahan and Vilardi.

The Avs look like they want the puck way more. They look like they have something to prove.

The Jets look like they are scared of that.

I am seriously concerned that the core of this team does not have what it takes to handle the pressure and elevated desperation of the playoffs.

Outside of a handful of players we have an awful lot of passengers and shrinking violets.

This is more than a game 2 first round loss hangover.

If they wilt and lose this series is an existential crisis for this team.

The org. is so loyal that they will simply run this group back and to expect different results with the same result is insanity.

The Stanley Cup is insanely hard to win, and I'm not one to say that if we don't win it we are a failure, but what I won't accept is a group of guys that just lay down every time things get difficult.

Jets better find a way to match the Avalanche intensity and desperation or its going to be a long offseason.

I mean this core doesn't stack up to most top contenders. In this series:

Mack >> Scheifele
Makar > JoMo
Rantenan > KC
Grigoriev << Helle

We were never going to win this series if it came down to our core outplaying their core. What we need is for our depth to outplay their depth and that hasn't been the case to date.

 

[SensibleGuy]

No, that pretty much sums up the angry fanboys' reaction in this place.

 

[Flyby]

I enjoy all the hot takes and doom and gloom I’m reading this morning. This team just ended an 8 game winning streak and instantly the world is ending. But, Bucky does need to be better. Can’t afford 1 or 2 bad goals/game in playoffs. We also can’t make use of our depth advantage if the second line doesn’t show up.

 

[sipowicz]

I wish Appleton was a main problem for this team but he's way down the list at the moment.

Hellebuyck simply must be better. He's being outdueled by f***ing georgiev.

Ehlers, Toffoli might as well not be dressed.

Stanley and Samberg as a pair are being exposed.

I've liked Schiefele and Connor for better and worse is playing the way he always does. I have liked his involvement in the backcheck.

We need more from Monahan and Vilardi.

The Avs look like they want the puck way more. They look like they have something to prove.

The Jets look like they are scared of that.

I am seriously concerned that the core of this team does not have what it takes to handle the pressure and elevated desperation of the playoffs.

Outside of a handful of players we have an awful lot of passengers and shrinking violets.

This is more than a game 2 first round loss hangover.

If they wilt and lose this series is an existential crisis for this team.

The org. is so loyal that they will simply run this group back and to expect different results with the same result is insanity.

The Stanley Cup is insanely hard to win, and I'm not one to say that if we don't win it we are a failure, but what I won't accept is a group of guys that just lay down every time things get difficult.

Jets better find a way to match the Avalanche intensity and desperation or its going to be a long offseason.

Nailed it with the post!

Appleton looks even more pathetic in the PO's, guy doesn't have a clue in the O zone, really can't figure out how he ended up on the 3rd line!

A lot of the Jets players look like they would rather be on vacation then in the PO's! Pretty hard to motivate guys making $5-6 million for PO chicken feed when it takes them away from travelling, fishing, and being back in their vacation homes!

 

[Adam da bomb]

I mean this core doesn't stack up to most top contenders. In this series:

Mack >> Scheifele
Makar > JoMo
Rantenan > KC
Grigoriev << Helle

We were never going to win this series if it came down to our core outplayed their core. What we need is for our depth to outplay their depth and that hasn't been the case to date.

Ehlers was supposed to be part of core not awol.

 

[JetsUK]

I mean this core doesn't stack up to most top contenders. In this series:

Mack >> Scheifele
Makar > JoMo
Rantenan > KC
Grigoriev << Helle

We were never going to win this series if it came down to our core outplayed their core. What we need is for our depth to outplay their depth and that hasn't been the case to date.

Agree for the most part, though not sure at all that Makar > JMo at this point. But JMo can't be Peak JMo when he's on the backheel and not able to activate with support above and below.

Momentum is with the Avs, but that can change in a game. Series is still there for the taking if the Jets bring their best game.

 

[Jet]

Holy Hot take.... you sound like me, lol.
Maybe their top players are just better than ours. It's a process to get better and losing is one of them. Management will do their best to improve the team and loyalty is a huge hurdle to overcome for this ownership/manager. We could take a few lessons from Vegas and their cut throat approach but that won't fly in Winnipeg. Hard decisions need to be made

I don't think it's a hot take at all. I've watched this team long enough and it's the same mo - key players on this team disappear when shit gets tough.

 

[WPGChief]

if he is the the top 10 winger people on here act as if he is then yes, I expect him to be able to win his match up against the avs bottom six no matter what

I'm just going to ignore the strawman argument.

Let's start off by where we agree: have 27-23-73 been anywhere near good enough? No, not even close: in 19:09 of 5v5 TOI across two games, they're 45% CF% and a team-worst 30% xGF%; and have only generated one more HDCF than the Lowry line (3 vs 2). This is even more disappointing, considering they are given the majority of the minutes against COL's checking line of Wood-Colton-Kiviranta.

Now the question becomes: why? And I think as this thread has evolved, people have slowly begun to hover around the same point - some are a little more fiery than others, but the focus has been on Ehlers for his "big mistakes". But as some have pointed out, and I would agree with - he's the only one on that line with the puck to make mistakes with as WPG tries to get from their DZ and through the NZ! Not saying he had a perfect game and it was the 4 other players (and 1 other goaltender) that were worse than him at all times, but no wonder he's so divisive.

Garret has been tracking the microstats, and although I don't currently have the means to subscribe, he's at least posted a few things publically: this look at defencemen's attempts at exits (and entries) lays things out for me, IMO:



There's two things: first, any defencemen not named Morrissey are constantly chipping out the puck from the DZ 70%+ of the time (reverse of controlled exit %). Can't shoot the puck on net in the OZ if you are constantly giving the puck back to your opponent to "relieve pressure" in the DZ. Second: only Morrissey, Dillon, and DeMelo-ish have been "clean" in their exit attempts (be that chip outs or whatnot). Stanley looks "cleaner" than Samberg but that because 54 is the attempting to maintain possession, while 64 is just chipping it out (if he's not hitting his opponent).

Let's connect the dots. 27-23-73 are struggling for offence. Ehlers is carrying the load. They don't often start with the puck from their own DZ, nor do they get the opportunities to start with the puck in the OZF. And then we come to the crux - okay, something needs to change, if only the 44-2 pairing are treading water while every other line has been struggling (if Georgiev isn't letting in every second shot attempt).

All the while: the top line has at least scored some nice goals, but they've been gashed by COL's respective top 6 (especially when paired up with Pionk against them) - so your goaltender whose preferred style of play is to be "big-and-boring" has been facing 1.3 shots every minute of each game thus far, which drops to just under 1 if it's only unblocked shots. This is all with Bowness preferred hard matchups. None of that is simply good at all. You need to change it up.

So what do you change it to? Well again: neither Scheifele nor the coaching staff apparently trusts Ehlers on the top line, so 27-55-13 probably isn't an option. Maybe getting Schmidt in for Stanley could help some, if not just for on-ice results then at least for the vibes and communication on the ice (because there were certainly a lot of communication breakdowns to end that 2nd period, giving up three straight goals) - but you still have your best (and only) puck mover in Morrissey taking the heavy minutes with the Lowry line, as 5-4 continue to stink with any line. Oh, and that Lowry line is "unchangeable" too - that matchup line "only works" if 62 and 22 are with him, apparently. Perfetti has proven he's a top 12 player on this team, yet the coaching staff only likes him in top 6 roles (which feels very contradictory). We haven't even gotten to "unlocking" the whole point of acquiring Toffoli's ability to score (because again, the Jets are struggling to even have the puck on their sticks in dangerous areas to begin with).

These are all problems we've seen since January. This was always the risk, and the gamble that this coaching staff has made, and made very intentionally to end the year too when everyone was feeling good about the vibes on a nice little winning streak but just average underlying numbers: that if they could instill a lot of defensive structure, that the high-end talent of their top players would outscore and/or outsave all the other issues. When one or neither happens, these two games vs COL are what you get. And now the Jets might not realistically have a known answer to address them.

 

[WolfHouse]

Ehlers was supposed to be part of core not awol.

This AWOL narrative is nuts... he set up Pionk for what should have been a tap in last game and came within a c-hair of getting us back in this game

 

[Adam da bomb]

This AWOL narrative is nuts... he set up Pionk for what should have been a tap in last game and came within a c-hair of getting us back in this game

Either you get it done or you don’t. Close isn’t good enough when you are getting 6 million. Also last game he got pickpocketed in our own end, he turned it over for their 4th goal.

 

[Maukkis]

Hellebuyck getting shat on for allowing 10 goals so far - he's also faced 9 xG in these two games. Yes, that's underperformance. Yes, the team hasn't defended this bad all year.

Also, it is hilarious to see Bowness get seven-figures for not playing ESV. Any Jet who sees Connor and Scheifele on the ice together should just jump onto the ice and take a too many men call to stop this lunacy.

 

[Jets4Life]

Fun fact: Jets are 6-12 at home during Whiteout games.

 

[SensibleGuy]

Fun fact: Jets are 6-12 at home during Whiteout games.

awwww crap! We should have worn a different color and cheered less!

 

[jungles]

Maybe their top players are just better than ours.

They are, most definitely. But our systems and depth were supposed to be an equalizer.

 

[surixon]

Agree for the most part, though not sure at all that Makar > JMo at this point. But JMo can't be Peak JMo when he's on the backheel and not able to activate with support above and below.

Momentum is with the Avs, but that can change in a game. Series is still there for the taking if the Jets bring their best game.

The gap between JoMo and Makar isn't that large but I'd still rank Makar as the better dmen.

 

[buggs]

Fire Chevy! Fire Maurice! Tight turns! Trade Pavelec! Shutup Sawyer! F*ck Vegas! (did I miss anything?)

#firebradlauer

 

[jungles]

Fun fact: Jets are 6-12 at home during Whiteout games.

What is their road playoff record in the same timespan?

 

[DRW204]

2nd line

I'm just going to ignore the strawman argument.

Let's start off by where we agree: have 27-23-73 been anywhere near good enough? No, not even close: in 19:09 of 5v5 TOI across two games, they're 45% CF% and a team-worst 30% xGF%; and have only generated one more HDCF than the Lowry line (3 vs 2). This is even more disappointing, considering they are given the majority of the minutes against COL's checking line of Wood-Colton-Kiviranta.

Now the question becomes: why? And I think as this thread has evolved, people have slowly begun to hover around the same point - some are a little more fiery than others, but the focus has been on Ehlers for his "big mistakes". But as some have pointed out, and I would agree with - he's the only one on that line with the puck to make mistakes with as WPG tries to get from their DZ and through the NZ! Not saying he had a perfect game and it was the 4 other players (and 1 other goaltender) that were worse than him at all times, but no wonder he's so divisive.

Garret has been tracking the microstats, and although I don't currently have the means to subscribe, he's at least posted a few things publically: this look at defencemen's attempts at exits (and entries) lays things out for me, IMO:



There's two things: first, any defencemen not named Morrissey are constantly chipping out the puck from the DZ 70%+ of the time (reverse of controlled exit %). Can't shoot the puck on net in the OZ if you are constantly giving the puck back to your opponent to "relieve pressure" in the DZ. Second: only Morrissey, Dillon, and DeMelo-ish have been "clean" in their exit attempts (be that chip outs or whatnot). Stanley looks "cleaner" than Samberg but that because 54 is the attempting to maintain possession, while 64 is just chipping it out (if he's not hitting his opponent).

Let's connect the dots. 27-23-73 are struggling for offence. Ehlers is carrying the load. They don't often start with the puck from their own DZ, nor do they get the opportunities to start with the puck in the OZF. And then we come to the crux - okay, something needs to change, if only the 44-2 pairing are treading water while every other line has been struggling (if Georgiev isn't letting in every second shot attempt).

All the while: the top line has at least scored some nice goals, but they've been gashed by COL's respective top 6 (especially when paired up with Pionk against them) - so your goaltender whose preferred style of play is to be "big-and-boring" has been facing 1.3 shots every minute of each game thus far, which drops to just under 1 if it's only unblocked shots. This is all with Bowness preferred hard matchups. None of that is simply good at all. You need to change it up.

So what do you change it to? Well again: neither Scheifele nor the coaching staff apparently trusts Ehlers on the top line, so 27-55-13 probably isn't an option. Maybe getting Schmidt in for Stanley could help some, if not just for on-ice results then at least for the vibes and communication on the ice (because there were certainly a lot of communication breakdowns to end that 2nd period, giving up three straight goals) - but you still have your best (and only) puck mover in Morrissey taking the heavy minutes with the Lowry line, as 5-4 continue to stink with any line. Oh, and that Lowry line is "unchangeable" too - that matchup line "only works" if 62 and 22 are with him, apparently. Perfetti has proven he's a top 12 player on this team, yet the coaching staff only likes him in top 6 roles (which feels very contradictory). We haven't even gotten to "unlocking" the whole point of acquiring Toffoli's ability to score (because again, the Jets are struggling to even have the puck on their sticks in dangerous areas to begin with).

These are all problems we've seen since January. This was always the risk, and the gamble that this coaching staff has made, and made very intentionally to end the year too when everyone was feeling good about the vibes on a nice little winning streak but just average underlying numbers: that if they could instill a lot of defensive structure, that the high-end talent of their top players would outscore and/or outsave all the other issues. When one or neither happens, these two games vs COL are what you get. And now the Jets might not realistically have a known answer to address them.

the 2nd line is taking a bunch of low-danger shots. Ehlers is supposed to be one of the top 5v5 fwds & offensive creators/line-elevators and hasn't done that through the 2 games,

the line is at at 74.55 CF/60 currently, with 1.86 xGF/60 (from MoneyPuck). they take 40 CFs to generated 1xGF, that's the worst of the lines. they are Corsi juicing with 0 to show.

 

[surixon]

Ehlers was supposed to be part of core not awol.

I mean when has this org ever utilized him as a core piece?

To be fair his postseason performances have never warranted it.

 

[AnonoJet]

In the game I was watching, he scored the opening goal. Perhaps you were watching some other game.

Irrelevant considering the outcome of the game. Feels like you think his goal overshadows the rest of the team not delivering. I don’t.

 

[JetsFan815]

Just going by the first two games, it seems the upside of this series is gonna be the Oilers series where they are dependent on Helle to win them games. Last game I posted that it is unlikely the Jets have another game as defensively putrid as game 1 but they did and now I am not so sure.

Samberg-Schmidt had some of the best defensive metrics all season. He has to go back to that. Need to add some stability and going back to what has worked before.

 

[JetsUK]

I mean when has this org ever utilized him as a core piece?

To be fair his postseason performances have never warranted it.

There be a connection between those two points.

This is a team with two fixed lines and two fixed D pairings, so flexibility has to come with the 4th line, which is playing well, or the 2nd line, which isn't. Expect we'll see some moves there, and agree with others that we see a move on the 3rd pairing -- hadn't though about 88's value as a clear communicator, but definitely something in that.

I get that Stan adds wingspan and hits (sometimes) and the loss is def not on him, but he also adds some chaos, and with Pionk leading the league in that stat, calming down the D while letting Samberg play a more effective game might be a difference maker.