Auston Matthews goal total projection 22/23

[Dion TheFluff]

simple question, how many goals does Auston Matthews score this season?

Click to read more...

 

[Hockey 4 Life]

I say 63 with 49 assists.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

50-54 I dunno I have a hard time seeing repeating how incredible his season was last year but to be honest I wouldn't put money on him not hitting 60 again

 

[tfwnogf]

No 93 goal option???? Anyway, I say more than 70 and leafs fans will never shutup about it until he signs with Arizona in 2 years

 

[bobholly39]

Guessing 60-64.

Keep in mind this is the season/age where Ovechkin unexpectedly dipped to 32 goals in 2011....so anything is possible.

 

[bossram]

I'll go with 50+.

60 goals is just such a difficult feat in the modern NHL - with goalies that can actually stop pucks that slide along the ice.

Even this generation's other best goal scorers were only able to hit 60 once each.

We may have already seen the peak season of Matthews' career.

 

[PuckG]

50-54.

Replicating the pace of last season would be insane.

 

[Dion TheFluff]

I'll go with 50+.

60 goals is just such a difficult feat in the modern NHL - with goalies that can actually stop pucks that slide along the ice.

Even this generation's other best goal scorers were only able to hit 60 once each.

We may have already seen the peak season of Matthews' career.

the one thing that has me a bit more optimistic about Matthews is that he hit 60 in 73 games. If he can stay healthy (big if) than I wouldn't be shocked at all if he is able to hit it again.

50-54.

Replicating the pace of last season would be insane.

crazy thing is that his SH% wasn't like abnormally high or anything.

50-54.

Replicating the pace of last season would be insane.

crazy thing is that his SH% wasn't like abnormally high last year.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Anything less than 70 goals would be a disappointment.

 

[Holymakinaw]

54.

 

[filinski77]

the one thing that has me a bit more optimistic about Matthews is that he hit 60 in 73 games. If he can stay healthy (big if) than I wouldn't be shocked at all if he is able to hit it again.


crazy thing is that his SH% wasn't like abnormally high or anything.


crazy thing is that his SH% wasn't like abnormally high last year.

Worth noting that SH% is only really useful if you include shot production as well. Matthews shooting % last year was normal for him, but he had a much higher shot/gp rate than his norm. His 4.77 shots/gp last year were 23% higher than his career average shots/gp.

So for him to score 60+ again, it's not a question of whether he can have a 16-18% shooting%, it's whether he can do that, PLUS maintain another season of higher shooting volume.

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

Guessing 60-64.

Keep in mind this is the season/age where Ovechkin unexpectedly dipped to 32 goals in 2011....so anything is possible.

I think matthews won't drop to that level. I mean after those 3 years ovechkin was either scoring 60 something points or barely a ppg or below. Drastic fall for a generational player that is disguised by him still winning rockets which is obv great. But it's clear the crosbys and mcdavids are better players.

 

[Rengorlex]

We may have already seen the peak season of Matthews' career.

That's pretty expected. Last year was probably Matthews' peak, at least in the regular season. McDavid, Ovechkin, Crosby, MacKinnon all had their best years/pgp at 24.

 

[TheDoldrums]

Worth noting that SH% is only really useful if you include shot production as well. Matthews shooting % last year was normal for him, but he had a much higher shot/gp rate than his norm. His 4.77 shots/gp last year were 23% higher than his career average shots/gp.

I mean he was playing ~18 minutes a night under Babcock for the first half of his career. Its been closer to ~21 minutes a night with Keefe. Even with no improvements in his game (which he's obviously made) you would still expect his current shot generation to be higher than his career average.

 

[FrozenJagrt]

Roughly a bajillion

 

[Team Cozens]

I voted 70. This isn't your fathers 70. Given the major uptick in NHL scoring with the watering down of expansion and the fact Matthews plays with Marner and insulated by Tavares and Nylander makes him a regular season star.

 

[bossram]

That's pretty expected. Last year was probably Matthews' peak, at least in the regular season. McDavid, Ovechkin, Crosby, MacKinnon all had their best years/pgp at 24.

Hence why I said I do not expect 60+ again.

 

[Regal]

I mean he was playing ~18 minutes a night under Babcock for the first half of his career. Its been closer to ~21 minutes a night with Keefe. Even with no improvements in his game (which he's obviously made) you would still expect his current shot generation to be higher than his career average.

His shots were a still a bit higher than normal in terms of per 60 numbers but not too much. He was taking about 2 extra shots per 60 last year than the year before and over 1.5 more than his previous career high which was as a rookie. That’s a decent improvement, and if he shot the same shooting percentage as this year but at ‘21s shot rate, he would have had 7 fewer goals.

On the PP, he again had 2 more shots per 60 than in ‘21, but it was actually fewer than his shots per 60 in ‘20 and ‘19. The PP shots seem sustainable, and even if the ES shots go down, that would have still put him just under a 60 goal pace over 82 last year. And even then, his ES shooting percentage has been higher in other years, so that could go up with the shots going down as well. Realistically, there isn’t much to suggest he can’t pace for at least 60 this year. Health would play a role though obviously

 

[jigglysquishy]

Around 55 goals, but I think he misses 5 to 15 games and his pace will be higher.

 

[Captain97]

55, getting 60 back to back is something that doesn't happen anymore. But scoring is up so maybe he could do it.

 

[Hierso]

53 goals with a total of 6 missed games.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

If he plays a full 82 I think he hits 60 again though his scoring rate drops overall compared to last season. Misses a few games then he probably sits in the low to mid 50s

 

[olli]

62 goals and 52 assists if he plays 82 games

 

[BlueBaron]

I'd like another 60 and that seems realistic. Injuries are always a consideration though.

 

[Bluesguru]

I voted 70. He hasn’t had his peak year yet.