ATD10-AAA Semifinal Round: #1 Regina Pat Habs vs. #4 Japan Killer Whales
- Thread starter VanIslander
- Start date
VanIslander
A 19-year ATDer on HfBoards
seventieslord
Student Of The Game
Nice lineup change.
Good luck, CR. Considering we've been in every single draft since ATD8 together, (a total of 9 drafts now) and have been in the same division too, it's surprising that this is just our second-ever meeting.
Good luck, CR. Considering we've been in every single draft since ATD8 together, (a total of 9 drafts now) and have been in the same division too, it's surprising that this is just our second-ever meeting.
VanIslander
A 19-year ATDer on HfBoards
VanIslander
A 19-year ATDer on HfBoards
Series is TIED in voting!
So, a 48-hour extension... voting to commence again Wednesday.
chaos and seventies has until then to argue their cases
(those who have already voted can vote again if they change their mind or else their original vote will stand, those who didn't vote today please vote wednesday)
So, a 48-hour extension... voting to commence again Wednesday.
chaos and seventies has until then to argue their cases
(those who have already voted can vote again if they change their mind or else their original vote will stand, those who didn't vote today please vote wednesday)
seventieslord
Student Of The Game
I'd love to start this tonight. But it's already close to 11 PM. I have to go in to work early tomorrow in order to catch a ride with my wife, so I have an hour to piss around before my shift starts. I'll work on my argument at that time. I'll let my esteemed opponent take the first swing if he is so inclined....
Tied? Bah. I expect to get the swing vote and at change at least one mind.
Tied? Bah. I expect to get the swing vote and at change at least one mind.
seventieslord
Student Of The Game
Japan's first line definitely has some jam to stay in this series. Routh is a speedster and a sniper. He a really old, really small league in scoring a couple of times. Is Yashin the best playmaker for him? Although Yashin is a first line talent who just has to play top minutes to be effective, he's actually a better goalscorer than playmaker. He was 2nd, 10th, 10th in goals, but never top-10 in assists. Not to say he's a bad playmaker, he can pass the puck. But he never dd so at an elite level. Rota makes a good "glue guy", giving the line some hustle and grit.
Conversely, Regina's first line has a match made in AAA draft heaven. Craig Janney was top-10 in assists 4 times, and against tough competition too, like Yzerman, Gretzky, and Lemieux. This guy is a sublime passer and clicked best with Shanahan. Cully Wilson is like the Shanahan of the draft - a tough, skilled winger who performs in the playoffs. He makes a great glue guy for this like like Rota does for Japan, but he will also pop in some goals. He's a four-time top-20 scorer while Rota was 20th once. On the other side, we have the best goal scorer on either line, Don Smith, who lasted much longer than he ever should have. He's 10th all-time in NHA goals, thanks to five top-20 finishes.
Smith never had any playoff success, but Janney has fantastic playoff numbers and went to two finals. Wilson went to four finals, winning twice, and was led his team in goals the first time, and assists the next time. Routh won a couple of cups, but at least one of them did not require him to play a playoff game, not that that is his fault. But has Yashin ever led anyone anywhere?
Don't get me wrong though. the first line is pretty good. It's the second line where I think Japan might get a bit shaky. Eklund is a pretty good playmaker, and Sullivan is a speedy sparkplug with some moves. Boudrias was a point machine who, for six seasons, was like money in the bank when it came to getting you 60+ points. He's actually the line's best playmaker, having placed 5th and 8th in the NHL in assists. But who will score the goals at this all-time level? These three modern players have a combined 509 goals in 2014 career NHL games - that's a 21-goal clip. I'm just worried that on this line, no one was ever one of the best at something aside from Boudrias' glimpse of elite playmaking he showed. Not even one instance in the top-20 in goals.
On Regina we have Bodnar, who was top-12 in assists 5 times. He's feeding a great goalscorer in Liscombe, who is another four time top-20 goalscorer. Glen Murray was made by Joe Thornton, but was still top-5 in goals twice and top-20 two other times. He needs a great passer to thrive and Bodnar is it. Another sweet combnation here - an elite playmaker between two great goalscorers. I really like this line for the playoffs, too. Murray hasn't done anything, but Bodnar has won the cup twice and Liscombe once in four finals, placing in the playoff leaderboards each time. Japan's second line has just one finals appearance in it - Eklund, who performed very well in 1987.
More to come later.
Conversely, Regina's first line has a match made in AAA draft heaven. Craig Janney was top-10 in assists 4 times, and against tough competition too, like Yzerman, Gretzky, and Lemieux. This guy is a sublime passer and clicked best with Shanahan. Cully Wilson is like the Shanahan of the draft - a tough, skilled winger who performs in the playoffs. He makes a great glue guy for this like like Rota does for Japan, but he will also pop in some goals. He's a four-time top-20 scorer while Rota was 20th once. On the other side, we have the best goal scorer on either line, Don Smith, who lasted much longer than he ever should have. He's 10th all-time in NHA goals, thanks to five top-20 finishes.
Smith never had any playoff success, but Janney has fantastic playoff numbers and went to two finals. Wilson went to four finals, winning twice, and was led his team in goals the first time, and assists the next time. Routh won a couple of cups, but at least one of them did not require him to play a playoff game, not that that is his fault. But has Yashin ever led anyone anywhere?
Don't get me wrong though. the first line is pretty good. It's the second line where I think Japan might get a bit shaky. Eklund is a pretty good playmaker, and Sullivan is a speedy sparkplug with some moves. Boudrias was a point machine who, for six seasons, was like money in the bank when it came to getting you 60+ points. He's actually the line's best playmaker, having placed 5th and 8th in the NHL in assists. But who will score the goals at this all-time level? These three modern players have a combined 509 goals in 2014 career NHL games - that's a 21-goal clip. I'm just worried that on this line, no one was ever one of the best at something aside from Boudrias' glimpse of elite playmaking he showed. Not even one instance in the top-20 in goals.
On Regina we have Bodnar, who was top-12 in assists 5 times. He's feeding a great goalscorer in Liscombe, who is another four time top-20 goalscorer. Glen Murray was made by Joe Thornton, but was still top-5 in goals twice and top-20 two other times. He needs a great passer to thrive and Bodnar is it. Another sweet combnation here - an elite playmaker between two great goalscorers. I really like this line for the playoffs, too. Murray hasn't done anything, but Bodnar has won the cup twice and Liscombe once in four finals, placing in the playoff leaderboards each time. Japan's second line has just one finals appearance in it - Eklund, who performed very well in 1987.
More to come later.
seventieslord
Student Of The Game
OK, onto the 3rd lines. I really like both 3rd lines. Greg Gilbert was a defensive specialist who, like Tom Fitzgerald, went largely unappreciated as he played a long and responsible career. Hampson is a wonderful discovery, and Flatley, while not really a shutdown kind of player, will give the line some hustle, leadership, grit, and the potential for some offense. Obviously I like Regina's 3rd line too. Craig Conroy has been recognized as one of the better defensive forwards of his time, placing in the top-15 in Selke voting five times. Sundstrom also did it twice, and these two can provide some real offense as far as third lines are concerned. Especially Sundstrom. Carveth is not a real shutdown player either, just a guy who will add some hustle and some offense (four times top-20 goalscorer), particularly in the playoffs (three times in the top-5 in playoff goals) I think our line has the potential to provide more offense and a little more shutdown ability.
Not much to say about the fourth lines - they will serve their purpose. Ours is about having some big bodies out there to make life difficult for opposing defensemen, and yours looks like a 3rd scoring line. On Japan's, Jackson and Brysdon are solid citizens, but whether you want your 4th line to be a shutdown line, energy line, or another scoring line, one thing is for sure - you need effort from them - always. I'm thinking Satan is not the answer there. He's better there, than on the 3rd, but you should have moved him to the 2nd and dropped Sullivan down to 4th line LW. Sullivan would provide the hustle you need there, and Satan, who is much more talented, gets the better ice time and has a couple good playmakers on the 2nd line with him. As it is, you've got a 4th liner who will take nights off, and I don't see that as a good thing.
OK, defense corps. Well, there is Allan Cameron, and I think he's the best defenseman in the series, even when you discount his value due to era. Alex Smith is our captain and #1, and he's the 2nd-best defenseman here. After that, we each have an offensive specialist who is suspect defensively - McKenny and Guevremont. McKenny is the far more offensively accomplished of the two, having been top-15 among defensemen seven times. But Guevremont isn't bad - he's one of the best ones in the draft for this role.
I think Huber and Roberts match up similarly to Langlois and Krupp - guys who were good at a few things, not necessarily great at anything. Then we each have two defense-only guys. You've got Lane and Rivet, we've got Reekie and Phillips. Phillips has been known as one of the few best shutdown defensemen in the NHL for a few years now, and at times would have made many analysts' top-10 overall lists. Rivet has always been solid but he just hasn't ever been one of the best at what he does. I know you have me quoted as saying he could be a MLD 5 or 6 guy... but that was over a year ago. A lot has changed. We have all become a lot better at finding the best players and like I alluded to in the AA draft, some mediocre players' stock have dropped due to this and he's one of them, IMO. Lane is interesting because on one hand, he was never able to play a full season with the dynasty Isles - they were that deep. On the other hand his bio credits him for his shutdown work in the playoffs. Is he a scrub, or a hero? Reekie was practically forgotten by the time I selected him but he's a similar player - couldn't stick in the NHL for a while, then proved his worth. Since both players have similar offensive capabilities (NIL) it is fair to look at their defensive work as a comparison. Anecdotal evidence has them both as great defensive players. But over Reekie's career he is a +195 compared to his teammates, and Lane is a -48 compared to his.
In goal, Japan has a guy who was most likely the best of his era. After considering that the era was before there was a cup to play for and seasons were 5-8 games long, it's still feasible that he's the best. I say above average. Much like Richard Brodeur. We got Brodeur for his big game experience. He carried the 1982 Canucks to the finals, stopping 91.7% of his shots while the rest of the league was only stopping 88.3%. He went to two Avco cup finals and won once, and he won a memorial cup. Paton has a cup, but he didn't have to win a playoff game to get it. This isn't his fault, but it does call into question whether he would have won the big games if he had to, and is part of why it's so tricky going so far back to get your starting goalie.
Coaching's even. A Sutter combo would have been mighty interesting. But Sutter/MacNeil works too. I did get the better of the two Sutters - the one who went to game 7 of the finals, and has the innate ability to improve every roster he's on, each season.
I like Regina better in all areas, but Defense, goaltending, and coaching aren't going to swing the series drastically in our favour. It is the forwards that will do that. The scoring depth is just too much for Japan to overcome.... far too much.
Regina's top-12 forwards have been top-5, top-10, top-15, and top-20 in goals 5, 10, 24, and 33 times, respectively. Japan's forwards have done it 2, 7, 8, and 13 times, in total. (Also add in that we each have a guy who do not apply to this metric - Japan has a guy who twice led the CAHA in goals in the 1890's and we have a guy who led the Soviet league in goals four times in the 1950's)
Top-10 and top-20 finishes aren't the only thing in the world, but it clearly points to a far more established lineup in terms of generating offense. The two best playmakers in the series (by far) are also on Regina's top two lines - with eight top-10 finishes in assists between them, they have five more than all of Japan's forwards combined. (Boudrias 2, Jackson 1)
That depth could partially be overcome with a better lineup configuration (no great playmaker on line 1, no great goalscorer on line 2, and a possible malcontent on line 4) but even if adjustments were made, it would not be enough.
Tied. This series is tied? Seriously. Come on.
Not much to say about the fourth lines - they will serve their purpose. Ours is about having some big bodies out there to make life difficult for opposing defensemen, and yours looks like a 3rd scoring line. On Japan's, Jackson and Brysdon are solid citizens, but whether you want your 4th line to be a shutdown line, energy line, or another scoring line, one thing is for sure - you need effort from them - always. I'm thinking Satan is not the answer there. He's better there, than on the 3rd, but you should have moved him to the 2nd and dropped Sullivan down to 4th line LW. Sullivan would provide the hustle you need there, and Satan, who is much more talented, gets the better ice time and has a couple good playmakers on the 2nd line with him. As it is, you've got a 4th liner who will take nights off, and I don't see that as a good thing.
OK, defense corps. Well, there is Allan Cameron, and I think he's the best defenseman in the series, even when you discount his value due to era. Alex Smith is our captain and #1, and he's the 2nd-best defenseman here. After that, we each have an offensive specialist who is suspect defensively - McKenny and Guevremont. McKenny is the far more offensively accomplished of the two, having been top-15 among defensemen seven times. But Guevremont isn't bad - he's one of the best ones in the draft for this role.
I think Huber and Roberts match up similarly to Langlois and Krupp - guys who were good at a few things, not necessarily great at anything. Then we each have two defense-only guys. You've got Lane and Rivet, we've got Reekie and Phillips. Phillips has been known as one of the few best shutdown defensemen in the NHL for a few years now, and at times would have made many analysts' top-10 overall lists. Rivet has always been solid but he just hasn't ever been one of the best at what he does. I know you have me quoted as saying he could be a MLD 5 or 6 guy... but that was over a year ago. A lot has changed. We have all become a lot better at finding the best players and like I alluded to in the AA draft, some mediocre players' stock have dropped due to this and he's one of them, IMO. Lane is interesting because on one hand, he was never able to play a full season with the dynasty Isles - they were that deep. On the other hand his bio credits him for his shutdown work in the playoffs. Is he a scrub, or a hero? Reekie was practically forgotten by the time I selected him but he's a similar player - couldn't stick in the NHL for a while, then proved his worth. Since both players have similar offensive capabilities (NIL) it is fair to look at their defensive work as a comparison. Anecdotal evidence has them both as great defensive players. But over Reekie's career he is a +195 compared to his teammates, and Lane is a -48 compared to his.
In goal, Japan has a guy who was most likely the best of his era. After considering that the era was before there was a cup to play for and seasons were 5-8 games long, it's still feasible that he's the best. I say above average. Much like Richard Brodeur. We got Brodeur for his big game experience. He carried the 1982 Canucks to the finals, stopping 91.7% of his shots while the rest of the league was only stopping 88.3%. He went to two Avco cup finals and won once, and he won a memorial cup. Paton has a cup, but he didn't have to win a playoff game to get it. This isn't his fault, but it does call into question whether he would have won the big games if he had to, and is part of why it's so tricky going so far back to get your starting goalie.
Coaching's even. A Sutter combo would have been mighty interesting. But Sutter/MacNeil works too. I did get the better of the two Sutters - the one who went to game 7 of the finals, and has the innate ability to improve every roster he's on, each season.
I like Regina better in all areas, but Defense, goaltending, and coaching aren't going to swing the series drastically in our favour. It is the forwards that will do that. The scoring depth is just too much for Japan to overcome.... far too much.
Regina's top-12 forwards have been top-5, top-10, top-15, and top-20 in goals 5, 10, 24, and 33 times, respectively. Japan's forwards have done it 2, 7, 8, and 13 times, in total. (Also add in that we each have a guy who do not apply to this metric - Japan has a guy who twice led the CAHA in goals in the 1890's and we have a guy who led the Soviet league in goals four times in the 1950's)
Top-10 and top-20 finishes aren't the only thing in the world, but it clearly points to a far more established lineup in terms of generating offense. The two best playmakers in the series (by far) are also on Regina's top two lines - with eight top-10 finishes in assists between them, they have five more than all of Japan's forwards combined. (Boudrias 2, Jackson 1)
That depth could partially be overcome with a better lineup configuration (no great playmaker on line 1, no great goalscorer on line 2, and a possible malcontent on line 4) but even if adjustments were made, it would not be enough.
Tied. This series is tied? Seriously. Come on.
VanIslander
A 19-year ATDer on HfBoards
Last day to vote is today, Wednesday, on the semifinal series.
If you have already voted you can change your vote or let it stand as is.
If you have already voted you can change your vote or let it stand as is.
VanIslander
A 19-year ATDer on HfBoards
Capitals win the series in game 7 OT.
Three stars:
1. Tom Paton
2. Craig Janney
3. Allan Cameron
Three stars:
1. Tom Paton
2. Craig Janney
3. Allan Cameron
Great series Seventies! I couldn't make a post to counter yours...was a little more focussed on ATD and school..but..lol. I don't know how to counter it yet (something I need to work on). Im surprised it was so close and im honoured to take you to 7 games OT.
seventieslord
Student Of The Game
What is it with this team of mine? We almost got upset twice, both series went to 7 games. Do we lack killer instinct?
CR, thanks for the kind remarks. It is also an honour to (barely) advance to the finals over your squad. This is one of my favourite teams you've ever put together. I figured the ATD had something to do with the lack of the counter-argument. No biggie, these playoffs are just practice for the real thing.
CR, thanks for the kind remarks. It is also an honour to (barely) advance to the finals over your squad. This is one of my favourite teams you've ever put together. I figured the ATD had something to do with the lack of the counter-argument. No biggie, these playoffs are just practice for the real thing.
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