ATD 2017 Draft Thread IV

[Dreakmur]

-The 39th pick wasn't on the clock, I could have lost Trottier.

Don't play that game. Nobody here is an idiot, including you. You looked at the draft board before making the trade, and you saw that the guy with the 38th pick already had Howie Morenz, and he wasn't taking Trottier.

 

[ResilientBeast]

Also I like trading just because in a draft where fit and chemistry is so important no one is forced to take a player early just due to fit. Obviously it's not that simple but if you want player X who will be available in a bit you can make moves anticipating that

 

[jarek]

I'm going to come out and say that I don't think any of us has a damn clue who wins and loses a trade unless it's very, very obvious.

The only way to truly determine the value of a trade is if you determine the exact value of each draft pick. The 1st pick isn't 2 spots better than the 3rd pick, for example. It's closer to something like the following:

1st pick is worth 1000 "points", 2nd is worth 975, 3rd is worth 950. Then the 4th is like 900. 5th is 850. Etc. It is by no means linear.. at all.

EDIT: Actually, there is one other way, though it is not as scientific and may not have enough sample data. Look at the results of each team in ATD history and model it against the trades they made. This would end up being a really complicated graph most likely but you could figure out if there's any correlation between the perceived "winning" of a trade and ATD results. Recency bias suggests there is, but not everyone is going to think BB's trades were draft breaking.

I actually think there's a lot to his idea that grabbing a #1 D at decent value offers a significant competitive advantage. Although I don't necessarily believe that a #1 D is that valuable.. I think the last two years of Pittsburgh should show that. They won on the backs of elite forwards, with "just enough" D and great goaltending. Maybe the formula is getting at least 2 of the 3?

 

[BenchBrawl]

For the most part their will always been a winner and a loser in a trade, if I managed to win more than my fair share of deals I don't see that as "draft breaking"

Which of my trades were draft breaking? The only one even close could've been the Firsov deal

They weren't, and neither were seventieslord's or mines.That was my point.

 

[BenchBrawl]

Don't play that game. Nobody here is an idiot, including you. You looked at the draft board before making the trade, and you saw that the guy with the 38th pick already had Howie Morenz, and he wasn't taking Trottier.

Even if Trottier were to be included in the trade, it's still neither draft-breaking, neither trading my way to a championship considering the initial set of picks I had in my possession prior to all the trades.

I agree with what you said.I knew Trottier had a great chance to be there.Doesn't change anything.

 

[BenchBrawl]

Here's every trade I made, and the true initial/actual results below (and just assume I was almost certain that 39th = Trottier):

To BenchBrawl (Montreal Canadiens): 1st (5th) and 2nd (46th)

To JFA (Pittsburgh Bankers): 1st (3rd) and 3rd (53th)

To HC Dukla Jihlava (Sprague Cleghorn): 46 (2nd), 48 (2nd), 103 (5th)

To Montreal Canadiens (BenchBrawl) : 20 (1st), 81(4th), 131 (6th)

Trade to announce:

To tinyzombies: Mark Messier, 81, 98, 198


To BenchBrawl: 39 (likely Bryan Trottier), 76, 89, 176


Need to do some damage control.

To jarek (Toronto Maple Austons):

76th (3rd), 89th (4th)

To BenchBrawl (Montreal Canadiens):

62nd (3rd), 112th (5th)

Trade
to Benchbrawl - Montreal: 146, 155, 205

to JFA - Pittsburgh: 148, 153, 203

To Montreal Canadiens: 336, 384

To Chicago Shamrocks: 348, 353

Initial Round- Initial pick - Actual pick - Difference
1st round: 3 - 5 - (-2) (Doug Harvey)
2nd round: 48 - 39 - (+9) (Bryan Trottier)
3rd round: 53 - 62 - (-9) (Bernard Geoffrion)
4th round: 98 - 112 - (-14) (Frank Brimsek)
5th round: 103 - 131 - (-28) (Shea Weber)
6th round: 148 - 146 - (+2) (Georges Boucher)
7th round: 153 - 155 - (-2) (Mike Modano)
8th round: 198 - 176 - (+22) (Paul Thompson)
9th round: 203 - 205 - (-2) (Patrik Elias)
10th round: 248 - 248 - 0 (Frank Fredrickson)
11th round: 253 - 253 - 0 (Glenn Anderson)
12th round: 298 - 298 - 0 (Derian Hatcher)
13th round: 303 - 303 - 0 (Al Arbour)
14th round: 348 - 336 - (+12) (Jamie Benn)
15th round: 353 - 384 - (-31) (Tony Amonte)
16th round: 398 - 398 - 0 (Ted Green)
17th round: 403 - 403 - 0
18th round: 448 - 448 - 0
19th round: 453 - 453 - 0
20th round: 498 - 498 - 0
21th round: 503 - 503 - 0
22th round: 548 - 548 - 0
23th round: 553 - 553 - 0
24th round: 598 - 598 - 0
25th round: 603 - 603 - 0

 

[Dreakmur]

I do think draft-breaking trades are a serious matter for the integrity of the draft, so if someone has a case that I or anyone else broke a draft, he should come ahead and make it publicly for everyone's benefit.But if he doesn't, he's just a sore loser throwing cheap shots based on some unreliable and personal emotionnal cues.

If these concerns were just being brought up for the first time now, I would agree it's a poor loser.

Not only were these concerns brought up when the deals were made, the fact that you won the draft by making them was mentioned as well. Even with the draft younger than 50 picks old, I saw that this trade put you at a huge advantage. Even despite the fact you were in the toughest division, I thought it absolutely was draft-breaking... and it appears I was right.

 

[BenchBrawl]

If these concerns were just being brought up for the first time now, I would agree it's a poor loser.

Not only were these concerns brought up when the deals were made, the fact that you won the draft by making them was mentioned as well. Even with the draft younger than 50 picks old, I saw that this trade put you at a huge advantage. Even despite the fact you were in the toughest division, I thought it absolutely was draft-breaking... and it appears I was right.

So the number of times a concern is being brought up is a argument for it being true? Do you have any comment on the post just above yours? This doesn't look like the initialpicks/actualpicks ratio of a draft-breaking team.

I find it funny that from your logic, me winning the draft = argument in favor of me having made some draft-breaking trades.

 

[Dreakmur]

So the number of times a concern is being brought up is a argument for it being true?

No, but if I brought up a concern in the 2nd round of the draft, it's hard to say it's a sore loser, isn't it?

Do you have any comment on the post just above yours? This doesn't look like the initialpicks/actualpicks ratio of a draft-breaking team.

Yes, you made some bad trades... but even they were not enough to diminish the advantage gained by the one draft-breaker.

 

[BenchBrawl]

Sorry for having gone too far with the sore loser comment, but you refuse to quantify my draft-breaking advantage by being hand-wavy in all your replies, ignoring the data I present.Your main argument is that you protested when it occured, which doesn't prove or mean anything.

 

[Namba 17]

I see no problems with trades. No trades = no fun.
Also, I don't see any problems with BenchBrawl's trades. I don't see any terrible advantage.
And even if there was some advantage - it's a game FFS! Everybody is in the same conditions, everybody can make a trade. If BenchBrawl managed to make a good trade - good for him. He just plays better

 

[ImporterExporter]

Hey everyone! Guess who's back?

I want to congratulate BB on his 2017 ATD win. For those who are members on the Facebook ATD group, I had predicted a BB win as I thought he simply had constructed the best roster overall. That was a really well built team sir!

I am just looking forward to staying low key and being a part of the great group of folks that makes up the ATD section these days. Really missed the draft and all the fireworks that go with it. You guys are some of the best members on this forum and it sucked not being here. But, I deserved my ban, and being on the outside gave me a lot of time to reflect and look around the forums from an outside perspective to see how much BS the mods and admin really have to deal with.

Again, congrats BB, and I'm just happy to be back. Won't let you guys down here!

 

[BenchBrawl]

Hey everyone! Guess who's back?

I want to congratulate BB on his 2017 ATD win. For those who are members on the Facebook ATD group, I had predicted a BB win as I thought he simply had constructed the best roster overall. That was a really well built team sir!

I am just looking forward to staying low key and being a part of the great group of folks that makes up the ATD section these days. Really missed the draft and all the fireworks that go with it. You guys are some of the best members on this forum and it sucked not being here. But, I deserved my ban, and being on the outside gave me a lot of time to reflect and look around the forums from an outside perspective to see how much BS the mods and admin really have to deal with.

Again, congrats BB, and I'm just happy to be back. Won't let you guys down here!

Hey, thank you and welcome back! Good to have a strong contributor back in the community for next year.

 

[tinyzombies]

I would still do the trade. Where I screwed up was on how to measure dmen. I took Drinkwater pretty high up going by what I thought was his pedigree. Turns out no one knows what his pedigree is because those players are mostly impossible to measure. But the recounts of his exploits say he was a force. So who knows? I also didn't have the tools you guys had, but started to collect them as the draft went along. Things would have been very different I tell you! I wasted several picks or my team would have been much stronger. I also find it strange that some of you guys have such little regard for Messier. I know he played behind Gretz, but without Mess they might have only one once or never - who knows. I watched him all those years and he was the man, so it's strange to see him downgraded - the guy did it all. Literally. I know you guys put a lot of thought into leveling things, but come on maaaan. Mark Messier.

 

[seventieslord]

I would still do the trade. Where I screwed up was on how to measure dmen. I took Drinkwater pretty high up going by what I thought was his pedigree. Turns out no one knows what his pedigree is because those players are mostly impossible to measure. But the recounts of his exploits say he was a force. So who knows? I also didn't have the tools you guys had, but started to collect them as the draft went along. Things would have been very different I tell you! I wasted several picks or my team would have been much stronger. I also find it strange that some of you guys have such little regard for Messier. I know he played behind Gretz, but without Mess they might have only one once or never - who knows. I watched him all those years and he was the man, so it's strange to see him downgraded - the guy did it all. Literally. I know you guys put a lot of thought into leveling things, but come on maaaan. Mark Messier.

People downgrade Messier??

 

[Johnny Engine]

I also find it strange that some of you guys have such little regard for Messier. I know he played behind Gretz, but without Mess they might have only one once or never - who knows. I watched him all those years and he was the man, so it's strange to see him downgraded - the guy did it all. Literally. I know you guys put a lot of thought into leveling things, but come on maaaan. Mark Messier.

People downgrade Messier??

At one point, consensus on Messier in the intertwined worlds of HOH and the ATD was quite a bit below where it is now - in 2012, he dropped to #28 overall in the All Time Draft, just ahead of Joe Sakic. That would be where Messier should go if your main criteria is finding players who have been the best player in the world at some point or another. Messier may have been at the top for a year or two, Sakic may have been up there for a year or two, but neither of them dominated in a fashion where they could "lay claim to the summit" if you catch my drift.

Since then he's risen, because as you say, he's Mark Messier. That combination of skills, strength, meanness and attitude is a fantastic start to any team, and combined with the historical great competition levels in the 80s and 90s, it's pretty easy to get Messier miles higher than 28th in a straight BPA ranking.

But how high do you want him to go? A couple of weeks ago we had
this thread in HOH asking why Messier isn't a slam dunk for the top 10, and I posted this:

Best way to look at it is, 10 isn't very many, is it?

If you're just looking at the points, you can get Gretzky (obviously) and Jagr over him (that's 2). Most casual fans are aware of how good Lemieux and Orr were (that's 4). And you don't have to dig too deep to understand the many advantages Howe has, with 5 Hart trophies, more goals, nearly as many points in a lower-scoring era, and more post-season all-star nods than Messier has all star games (that's 5).
By now, you'd be wondering why you've locked in 4 forwards, one defenseman and no goalies, and you'd have to think that it's time for at least a few of Harvey, Bourque, Shore, Lidstrom, Hasek, Roy, Plante Sawchuk or Brodeur (pick two and that's 7).
You'd have to recognize that by now Crosby has the same number of Harts, an extra Smythe, and two scoring titles Messier doesn't have, at least consider what make Jean Beliveau and Rocket Richard the legends they are, despite it being a little harder to accomplishment-count with those guys. So if you're taking all 3 of those guys, that's 10 right there.
But if that's not enough, you might ask yourself whether Bobby Hull's 7 goal titles before he turned 28 was a bigger accomplishment than all those points Messier scored, and whether Ovechkin being right behind at 6 goal titles by age 30 stacks up as well.
You'd want to look into Stan Mikita's scoring dominance in the 60s, and Guy Lafleur's short but blinding peak.
You'd have to be at least curious about what made Howie Morenz special, even if you ultimately decide players from before WWII aren't for you.

Anyway, I've named 22 players you could all get above Messier pretty easily, depending on how highly you value their best attributes, and that's without getting into a few others worth talking about, including Bobby Clarke, Denis Potvin, Phil Esposito, Red Kelly, or any of the Soviets. You don't have to rank all those guys over Messier. You might even think he's better than the majority of them. But you can get to 10 pretty easily if you open the field beyond guys who put up a lot of points in the 80s and 90s.

The question of "why Messier at 20" requires consideration of the first 19 guys ahead of him, and what they bring to the table. 3 players picked ahead of Messier in the ATD (Potvin, Robinson, Fetisov) aren't in the first 22 names mentioned above, but I can see why an ATD GM would want them that high. Messier belongs with those guys, and it would take a "downgrade" for at least a dozen other all time greats for me to put him anywhere else.

 

[VanIslander]

Messier went 20th overall this year. That's underrated if anything.

If he was overrated then Jagr, Fetisov, Crosby and Robinson wouldn't have been drafted before him this year in the ATD.

'Nuff said.

 

[Johnny Engine]

Messier went 20th overall this year. That's underrated if anything.

If he was overrated then Jagr, Fetisov, Crosby and Robinson wouldn't have been drafted before him this year in the ATD.

'Nuff said.

Fetisov and Robinson show the ATD going a bit defense crazy, but there's plenty of reasons to put Jagr or Crosby ahead.

 

[MadArcand]

Eh, Jagr maybe, Crosby no way. I'd assume most of us have seen most of Messier's career and all of Crosby's, and there shouldn't be any doubt that Messier was the superior talent.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Eh, Jagr maybe, Crosby no way. I'd assume most of us have seen most of Messier's career and all of Crosby's, and there shouldn't be any doubt that Messier was the superior talent.

Define talent. There are VERY FEW folks who would say Mark Messier had more God given talent/skill whatever than Crosby. And nobody questions Crosby's elite worth ethic.

Crosby (still just 29 years old) as a regular season player already owns Messier and he's rapidly catching up in terms of postseason accolades and performances. Sid also has an esteemed international record. Better than Messier.

If people want to still put Messier above Crosby, fine. I disagree after this past year given Crosby's back to back Cups and Conn Smythe's. But saying there "should be no doubt" that Messier had/was superior in talent? Stinks of negative bias towards 87.

 

[ResilientBeast]

Define talent. There are VERY FEW folks who would say Mark Messier had more God given talent/skill whatever than Crosby. And nobody questions Crosby's elite worth ethic.

Crosby (still just 29 years old) as a regular season player already owns Messier and he's rapidly catching up in terms of postseason accolades and performances. Sid also has an esteemed international record. Better than Messier.

If people want to still put Messier above Crosby, fine. I disagree after this past year given Crosby's back to back Cups and Conn Smythe's. But saying there "should be no doubt" that Messier had/was superior in talent? Stinks of negative bias towards 87.

Messier who played internationally 5 times? (Bolded he won gold)

At ages, 24, 27, 28, 31, 36 while Crosby has the chance to play his entire prime in an era where he can go to the Olympics and has played almost as many times in mens tournaments as Messier and he's only 29.

Your former name makes it really hard for anyone to think you'll be remotely objective when it comes to Crosby

 

[ImporterExporter]

Messier who played internationally 5 times? (Bolded he won gold)

At ages, 24, 27, 28, 31, 36 while Crosby has the chance to play his entire prime in an era where he can go to the Olympics and has played almost as many times in mens tournaments as Messier and he's only 29.

Your former name makes it really hard for anyone to think you'll be remotely objective when it comes to Crosby

So what you're saying is that Crosby hasn't played in many more international tournaments as Messier? Sid has played 5 tournaments. 5. As of today. Messier played in 5.

You fail to point out that in the 80's the bulk of the best international talent was still overseas, especially in regards to Russia. So those Canada Cups and World Championships weren't exactly the same as today. Really no difference in terms of talent vs talent. Go look at the Russian rosters as an example. Crosby was the youngest player (18) in hockey history to lead the World Championships in scoring. Think about that and its significance. Even if you want to throw out Olympics, he still has gold at the WC and World Cup, where he was the leading scorer and unanimous MVP.

I'm a Penguins diehard and Crosby fan, yes. Never hid that fact.

But the facts remain, Crosby, at 29 already has Messier beat in regular season lure and given the events of the past 2 years is approaching Messier's level in the postseason when you factor in era, scoring rates, Messier riding shotgun for 4 of the 5 Cups in Edmonton, etc.

As I said, its a debate worth having. But my disagreement was with the comment that Messier had more talent than 87. There were a number of folks in the 80's that were more naturally gifted than Messier. But he had a drive like few others did (not dissimilar to Crosby if were being fair) and scratched out more ability than what was there on day 1.

 

[BenchBrawl]

Messier is a better ATD piece than Crosby IMO.Assuming a similar set of picks, if I could build a large number of teams around Crosby and Messier (starting with the choice between one or the other in the 1st round), I think I would build more contenders with Messier.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Messier is a better ATD piece than Crosby IMO.Assuming a similar set of picks, if I could build a large number of teams around Crosby and Messier (starting with the choice between one or the other in the 1st round), I think I would build more contenders with Messier.

As of this point in time, I agree with this. Messier is one of the easiest ATD players to build a team around (Not that Sid is difficult either). Both are easier than say Bobby Hull or Howie Morenz. But I would pick Messier looking at this angle.

RB, see, I can be plenty objective.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

After some great research done on him in the past few years I really still don't see how Morenz is hard to build around.