ATD 2017 Consolation Final: Strathcona Shadows vs Toronto Maple Austons

[Theokritos]

Strathcona Shadows

GMs: Edmonton Express, Wrigley

Captain: Clarke
Assistant: Fetisov
Assistant: Conacher

HEAD COACH​

Fred Shero

ROSTER

Roy Conacher - Bobby Clarke - Yvan Cournoyer
Tommy Smith - Vladimir Petrov - Charlie Conacher
Adam Graves - Rod Brind'Amour - Joe Mullen
Fred Stanfield - Ivan Hlinka - Jim Roberts

Spares: Bob Davidson, Alf Skinner

Viacheslav Fetisov - Alexei Kasatonov
Sergei Gonchar - Bob Goldham
Elmer "Moose" Vasko - Nikolai Sologubov

Spares: Mathieu Schneider, Andre Dupont

Clint Benedict
Lorne Chabot

PP1: R. Conacher - Clarke - Cournoyer - Fetisov - Kasatonov
PP2: Smith - Petrov - C. Conacher - Stanfield - Gonchar

PK1: Roberts - Brind'Amour - Vasko - Goldham
PK2: Petrov - Clarke - Fetisov - Kasatonov ​

Click to read more...

 

[Theokritos]

Toronto Maple Austons

Credit to Johnny Engine for the incredibly good looking logo!

Coach: Tommy Ivan
Captain: Eddie Gerard
Assistant Captains: Bob Nevin, Maurice Richard

Aurele Joliat - Joe Thornton - Maurice Richard
Zach Parise - Norm Ullman - Andy Bathgate
Boris Mayorov - Vyacheslav Starshinov - Bob Nevin
Joe Klukay - Doug Jarvis - Cully Wilson

Spares: Albert Kerr, LW, Rick MacLeish, C/LW, Ken Wharram, RW

NOTE: Ivan reserves the right to form a line of Klukay - Jarvis - Nevin in such a case where a pure checking line is required.

Art Ross - Eddie Gerard
Ryan Suter - Drew Doughty
Ted Harris - Doug Mohns

Spares: Keith Magnuson

Roy Worters
Gump Worsley

PP1: Ullman - Thornton - Richard - Mohns - Bathgate
PP2: Joliat - Starshinov - Mayorov - Suter - Ross

PP spares: Doughty, Parise

PK1: Jarvis - Klukay - Harris - Gerard
PK2: Ullman - Nevin - Suter - Doughty

PK spares: Mohns, Joliat, Starshinov

Forward Minutes

Player | ES | PP | PK | Total
Maurice Richard | 15 | 5 | 0 | 20
Andy Bathgate | 15 | 5 | 0 | 20
Aurele Joliat | 15 | 3 | 0 | 18
Joe Thornton | 13 | 5 | 0 | 18
Norm Ullman | 13 | 4 | 1 | 18
Bob Nevin | 10 | 0 | 4 | 14
Vyacheslav Starshinov | 12 | 2 | 0 | 14
Boris Mayorov | 12 | 2 | 0 | 14
Joe Klukay | 8 | 0 | 5 | 13
Doug Jarvis | 8 | 0 | 4 | 12
Zach Parise | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11
Cully Wilson| 6 | 0 | 0 | 6

Joliat will take some shifts in Parise's place on the 2nd line.
Richard will take some shifts in Wilson's place for offensive and occasional neutral zone draws.
Bathgate will take some shifts in Nevin's place for offensive and occasional neutral zone draws.

Defensemen Minutes

Player | ES | PP | PK | Total
Eddie Gerard | 19 | 0 | 4 | 23
Drew Doughty | 18 | 0 | 3 | 21
Ryan Suter | 16 | 2 | 3 | 21
Art Ross | 17 | 2 | 0 | 19
Doug Mohns | 14 | 5 | 0 | 19
Ted Harris | 8 | 0 | 4 | 12

Bathgate will be manning the right point on the 1st PP unit.​

 

[jarek]

Just a quick comment to start:

The Shadows are built very similarly to my previous opponent in that they have a strong 1st pairing (although not as strong), followed by a supporting cast that lags quite a bit behind them. I'll use the same methodology I used in my previous series to compare.

For reference, here is what I said about the defensemen in my previous series:

Orr (1) > Gerard (~30)
Chara (~25) > Ross (~74)
Thomson (~60) < Doughty (~55, probably closer to 47 or so after this season?)
Mortson (~90) < Suter (~70, probably closer to 65 or so after this season?)
Ramage (unranked) < Mohns (~83)
Stanowski (unranked) < Harris (~121)

So, again, from Sturm's list:

Fetisov (~7) > Gerard (~30)
Kasatonov (~42) > Ross (~74)
Goldham (~80) < Doughty (~55, probably closer to 47 or so after this season?)
Gonchar (~95) < Suter (~70, probably closer to 65 or so after this season?)
Vasko (~90) < Mohns (~83)
Sologubov (unranked) < Harris (~121)

Compared to my previous series, all 4 of the Shadows' top-4 defensemen are significantly worse than what the Leafs had in the same spot on the totem pole. Their 3rd pairing is quite a bit better than the Leafs', but still lags quite a bit behind my own 3rd pair.

There is obviously the great chemistry of their 1st pairing to consider if you care about such things, though I personally don't put a great deal of stock into it.

I think what we can conclude from this is similar to what we could conclude from my previous series: in terms of pure talent level, the Shadows have a sizeable advantage on the 1st pairing, the Austons have a sizeable advantage everywhere else. The key is that the Austons don't need to deal with a Bobby Orr in this series. I think the defense as a whole is an edge for the Austons.

Of particular interest is the presence of Sergei Gonchar here. Unless he's being played on the right side (which puts both him and Goldham on their off side at ES), he's going to have a whackload of trouble dealing with Bathgate and Richard. I'll get into more of that kind of stuff later.

 

[jarek]

Guess I'll look at top-6 offense once again:

blue = Austons, red = Shadows:

Player|VsX7
Richard | 102.4 Bathgate | 101.1 C. Conacher | 96.2 Thornton | 95.6 Clarke | 90.4 Ullman | 89.5 R. Conacher | 85.2 Joliat | 82.6 Cournoyer | 77.1 Parise | 70.9

*Smith and Petrov do not show up here.

Austons = 542.1
Shadows = 348.9

The difference is 193.2, so Smith and Petrov would need to have scores of nearly 100 each in order to match the offensive output from a VsX7 perspective of the Austons, and I just don't see that happening even if you're being generous.

On top of that, I am very confused about the way the Shadows built their top line especially. Clarke, a guy whose bread and butter is playing along the boards and not necessarily the fastest of skaters, is playing with two fast goal scoring wingers with no physical games to speak of. I'm honestly not real sure how this line will function and I think the offensive talent of this line is wasted due to the construction.

The Shadows are going to need to rely quite heavily on the Petrov line for their offense, which while being a good line, I just don't think will be enough to overcome what should be a fairly significant offensive advantage for the Austons.

 

[jarek]

So anyone have anything they want me to go into more detail about?

 

[BenchBrawl]

I agree with you that Gonchar out there against Richard and Bathgate is a major problem.

The Shadows have separated their top-2 forwards, but I feel that your defense can handle them better than any pairing with Gonchar on it.

Shadows have a better goalie, which might help.

Your Top 6 is very good obviously.

Shadows have a very solid two-way center line, which could help against that firepower.

I know Cournoyer was a very strong PP scorer, but does that justifies placing him there instead of Charlie Conacher? And why is Charlie not there instead of Roy anyway? I'm not really expecting an answer, their GM seems to be long gone which is too bad, he had much potential.

I understand this is boring to face a no-show, maybe you should do a big-ass Maurice Richard biography, the current one is good but dates from 2011.

 

[jarek]

I agree with you that Gonchar out there against Richard and Bathgate is a major problem.

The Shadows have separated their top-2 forwards, but I feel that your defense can handle them better than any pairing with Gonchar on it.

Shadows have a better goalie, which might help.

Your Top 6 is very good obviously.

Shadows have a very solid two-way center line, which could help against that firepower.

I know Cournoyer was a very strong PP scorer, but does that justifies placing him there instead of Charlie Conacher? And why is Charlie not there instead of Roy anyway? I'm not really expecting an answer, their GM seems to be long gone which is too bad, he had much potential.

I understand this is boring to face a no-show, maybe you should do a big-ass Maurice Richard biography, the current one is good but dates from 2011.

I feel the same way. When you consider that fact, along with such a large offensive advantage in this series belonging to the Austons, I think it pretty much eliminates the goaltending advantage that exists.

The Shadows *could* conceivably move Vasko up to the 2nd pairing to play with Goldham, but that creates a scenario where you have two defensemen who are not so good at moving the puck out of the zone out against one of two very talented forward lines. The net effect probably stays the same, it just happens in a different way, as the talent level between Vasko and Gonchar isn't large.

It would also create a bit of a mess of a 3rd pairing that doesn't work well at all from a chemistry perspective.

 

[jarek]

The special teams units seem to be all messed up for the Shadows as well. Clarke is on PP1 and PK2, which doesn't make any sense. The Shadows could have had one of the best PK'ing units in the draft with Clarke on the 1st unit, but that isn't how they are set up. It also diminishes the value of Petrov, who ends up stuck on the 2nd PP.

If you really look at the PP units closely, it feels like the Shadows' PP2 is their PP1 in terms of the forwards. Gonchar sitting on the 2nd PP instead of Kasatonov is reaching too deeply with respect to the Fetisov-Kasatonov chemistry. Gonchar is simply a much better option on the PP1.

Regardless, as things currently stand, I think the mess of the special teams units on the Shadows creates a special teams advantage for the Austons.

 

[jarek]

So anything anyone wants me to talk about?

 

[Theokritos]

Series result: Maple Austons defeat Shadows in 7 games.

 

[jarek]

Well I realize it's just the consolation round but I can at least say I won something in the ATD.

Thanks to all who voted for me!

Looking forward to the next ATD.

 

[BenchBrawl]

Good job!

 

[monster_bertuzzi]

Well I realize it's just the consolation round but I can at least say I won something in the ATD.

Thanks to all who voted for me!

Looking forward to the next ATD.

That top 6!

 

[jarek]

That top 6!

Yeah I was hoping it would carry me to at least the semi finals in the main playoffs. Ah well!

Next time I'll make a more cookie cutter team because you guys seem to prefer that!

 

[monster_bertuzzi]

Yeah I was hoping it would carry me to at least the semi finals in the main playoffs. Ah well!

Next time I'll make a more cookie cutter team because you guys seem to prefer that!

I made the finals on the strength of a top 6 mainly. It's possible.

 

[BenchBrawl]

I think if you build a team around your Top 6, you should make sure your centers are very strong.That's just an impression I have, nothing set in stone.

Toronto's centers are good, but their Top 6 is build around their RWers.Starting a team by drafting two same-side wingers is a very risky business, probably the riskiest (yes, even more risky than taking a goalie and a winger/D IMO).

But then, Toronto also tried the risky strategy to wait for their 5th pick to draft a #1 defenseman.

So that's two risky strategies combined.

Edit: I see now that monster bertuzzi's team last year was build around their top 6, which was in turn build around their wingers, contradicting what I said above.OTOH, they had King Clancy, a very respectable #1 D, so it was much less risky than what Toronto attempted.

 

[jarek]

I think if you build a team around your Top 6, you should make sure your centers are very strong.That's just an impression I have, nothing set in stone.

Toronto's centers are good, but their Top 6 is build around their RWers.Starting a team by drafting two same-side wingers is a very risky business, probably the riskiest (yes, even more risky than taking a goalie and a winger/D IMO).

But then, Toronto also tried the risky strategy to wait for their 5th pick to draft a #1 defenseman.

So that's two risky strategies combined.

Edit: I see now that monster bertuzzi's team last year was build around their top 6, which was in turn build around their wingers, contradicting what I said above.OTOH, they had King Clancy, a very respectable #1 D, so it was much less risky than what Toronto attempted.

I think if I took my goalie when I originally wanted to take him (instead of Aurel Joliat, IIRC), I would have been in much better shape. I think mainly what sunk me was not getting an elite goaltender.

 

[monster_bertuzzi]

I think if you build a team around your Top 6, you should make sure your centers are very strong.That's just an impression I have, nothing set in stone.

Toronto's centers are good, but their Top 6 is build around their RWers.Starting a team by drafting two same-side wingers is a very risky business, probably the riskiest (yes, even more risky than taking a goalie and a winger/D IMO).

But then, Toronto also tried the risky strategy to wait for their 5th pick to draft a #1 defenseman.

So that's two risky strategies combined.

Edit: I see now that monster bertuzzi's team last year was build around their top 6, which was in turn build around their wingers, contradicting what I said above.OTOH, they had King Clancy, a very respectable #1 D, so it was much less risky than what Toronto attempted.

Those wingers were spectacular. Jagr-Firsov-Denneny-Fleury I can't imagine a better group of four.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

I would never ever make my top 2 picks wingers at the same position.

 

[jarek]

I would never ever make my top 2 picks wingers at the same position.

Yep. Never doing that again.

My thinking was that it would create enough of a matchup problem for other teams that it would more than offset whatever deficiencies the rest of my team had. Clearly I was one of the only ones that felt that way.

I also missed out on a strong goalie as well. I had intended to take Sawchuk at the same time as taking Bathgate, but at the time, Sawchuk, Hall and Brodeur were all still left. I thought I could wait..

 

[BenchBrawl]

The only situation where I'd pick two wingers on the same side with my first two picks is if I have Gordie Howe and Bill Cook falls to me, which is highly unlikely.And if someone like say Trottier was also available, I'd pick him instead and play him on the 2nd line, so this situation is possible but very unlikely.

x-x-Gordie Howe
x-x-Bill Cook
x-x-x
x-x-x

Scott Stevens/Tim Horton/Chris Pronger/Zdeno Chara/Bill Gadsby/Brian Leetch-x
x-x
x-x

x

The rest of the team will be easy to build.

 

[monster_bertuzzi]

I would never ever make my top 2 picks wingers at the same position.

I thought Richard and Bathgate had a chance to really work because of Andy's exceptional playmaking. I figured Hull and Ovechkin was doomed from the beginning.

 

[jarek]

I thought Richard and Bathgate had a chance to really work because of Andy's exceptional playmaking. I figured Hull and Ovechkin was doomed from the beginning.

Especially since Bathgate lessens the need for an elite #1 D due to his ability to play the point on the PP.

Like I said though, I think what sunk me was not getting a goaltender much earlier. That defense looks much, much better playing in front of Sawchuk than Worters, for example.

 

[BenchBrawl]

In hindsight, with minor trades, you could have ended up with something like:

Toe Blake - Elmer Lach - Maurice Richard

Brian Leetch - Serge Savard

Would have been an interesting team, reuniting the punch line.I know hindsight is 20/20, and you would have been scooped out of Blake if you didn't trade up, but if you were aiming for this you might have done it.

 

[jarek]

In hindsight, with minor trades, you could have ended up with something like:

Toe Blake - Elmer Lach - Maurice Richard

Brian Leetch - Serge Savard

Would have been an interesting team, reuniting the punch line.I know hindsight is 20/20, and you would have been scooped out of Blake if you didn't trade up, but if you were aiming for this you might have done it.

One GM expressed their surprise at me not taking Lach and Blake back-to-back at one point.