ATD 2015 - Draft Thread I (picks start at post 185)

[BenchBrawl]

Not sure if you can look at what good GMs did in the first 6 rounds and say that this is the key to winning. I think the key to winning is just building a strong all around team and getting the most value that you can with each selection while maintaining cohesiveness in your lines and defense pairings.

You can't win the draft in the first 6 rounds, but you can certainly lose it.And you can also get a solid edge on the competition, but this was probably more true when trades were allowed in-draft.

(Well I guess this isn't really relevant to the prior conversation, since once you drafted your players you can always move them from lines to lines, my point was that the teams that won normally stacked their first line with their best forwards or close to it since 2010, except 2012 which had a first line including Gretzky-Kurri)

 

[jarek]

You can't win the draft in the first 6 rounds, but you can certainly lose it.And you can also get a solid edge on the competition, but this was probably more true when trades were allowed in-draft.

You can definitely lose it, absolutely. This is true at any point in the draft, however.

As far as getting a solid edge.. I can only speak for this draft so far, but I don't think anyone has gotten such high value on a single player so far that they have a clear edge over everyone else.

It could still happen though.

 

[BenchBrawl]

You can definitely lose it, absolutely. This is true at any point in the draft, however.

As far as getting a solid edge.. I can only speak for this draft so far, but I don't think anyone has gotten such high value on a single player so far that they have a clear edge over everyone else.

It could still happen though.

It's getting harder, especially since the Top X players of Y position projects were completed, and on top of that you can't try to maximize some value out of a trade.It's no wonder that parity is stronger.Once you get in the later rounds the projects are useless so you have to research more by yourself.

It could be true that you can lose the draft at any point, but it's much more costly to make a big mistake in the 3rd round than in the 14th.Given the competitiveness of the league a 3rd round major mistake doesn't forgive.

 

[seventieslord]

It's getting harder, especially since the Top X players of Y position projects were completed, and on top of that you can't try to maximize some value out of a trade.It's no wonder that parity is stronger.Once you get in the later rounds the projects are useless so you have to research more by yourself.

It could be true that you can lose the draft at any point, but it's much more costly to make a big mistake in the 3rd round than in the 14th.Given the competitiveness of the league a 3rd round major mistake doesn't forgive.

if you ask me, people who aren't paying attention to those projects have put themselves behind already... no naming names.

 

[jarek]

if you ask me, people who aren't paying attention to those projects have put themselves behind already... no naming names.

I have been paying attention to the final lists. Finding the argument for each individual player has been much harder.

 

[BenchBrawl]

if you ask me, people who aren't paying attention to those projects have put themselves behind already... no naming names.

I feel concerned, and I should.It's one of my biggest regrets as an amateur hockey historian (I say amateur, do professionals even exist?) not to have participated in those.

Well, I did read a good chunk of the conversations of all projects though.For example just earlier today before grabbing Phillips I went to refresh my mind and read the 18 or so pages thread where he was involved in the discussion with players of similar rank.That's a compromise between having participated and just reading the list and auto-picking.

 

[BenchBrawl]

I have been paying attention to the final lists. Finding the argument for each individual player has been much harder.

At the bottom of each main post for each project, all the threads with the discussions on each tier of players are available.You should find it there.Sometimes the list says one thing but after reading the conversation you personaly think this or that is off and you choose accordingly.How long is it to read 18 pages? Took me about 1 or 2 hours on and off, so you have to put in some time at least.

 

[VanIslander]

... as an amateur hockey historian (I say amateur, do professionals even exist?)...

Yes, they do. They publish books and write academic articles about hockey history. Many teach in universities or work in journalism.

They get paid to write and talk about hockey history.

 

[monster_bertuzzi]

if you ask me, people who aren't paying attention to those projects have put themselves behind already... no naming names.

...Took me about 5 minutes to scan the draft and find out who you're referring to.

 

[seventieslord]

...Took me about 5 minutes to scan the draft and find out who you're referring to.

well there are quite a few people by now who have taken a player way too "early", aren't there?

by the way, benchbrawl, the projects were great to participate in, but from an atd standpoint, you can at least benefit them just from paying attention to the results.

 

[Say Hey Kid]

He belongs in this tier. His relentless effort and quickness from the corners to the net (as praised by his NHL coach in the ATD 2013 bio that was constructed after Hedberg & I chose him) and 7-year peak early in his long, long career are usually underappreciated. People remember too much the last few years of an old Luc and think of him as only a one-timer from the slot trigger man (one of the weapons in his arsenal). http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=59213943&postcount=55

Thank you very much for the kind post, VI. After Shanahan, Firsov, and Phillips were 3 of the 4 pics right before us we felt he was the BPA. 6' 1" 215 #s in 1986 was not small, we can always play our #2 LW on the first line if necessary, we have Potvin, and an undrafted #2 dman and goalie to add additional qualities to our first unit. Kudos to you guys, since post 35 the discussion has been very enjoyable.

 

[markrander87]

well there are quite a few people by now who have taken a player way too "early", aren't there?

by the way, benchbrawl, the projects were great to participate in, but from an atd standpoint, you can at least benefit them just from paying attention to the results.

Referring to Crosby??

 

[BenchBrawl]

by the way, benchbrawl, the projects were great to participate in, but from an atd standpoint, you can at least benefit them just from paying attention to the results.

Yeah well, I still prefer to read the discussions a bit unless I'm very familiar with the player I'm looking for (and familiar with the players in his tier).

But sure, you can just check the list and auto-pick based on that.

 

[seventieslord]

Yeah well, I still prefer to read the discussions a bit unless I'm very familiar with the player I'm looking for (and familiar with the players in his tier).

But sure, you can just check the list and auto-pick based on that.

Well, don't just auto pick! There still has to be consideration made to what you need, and already have.

But to be honest, yes, I'm a proponent of the BPA. I don't think it would be a bad strategy to just take the bpa with your first 6-7 picks. Get the very best guys to carry your team, then work on complementing them. It's not like you won't find players who can.

Like, cam Neely? I mean, you don't build around him, you use him to support the players you do build around, and if you take him early over a building block you put yourself behind the 8 ball.

Referring to Crosby??

God, no

 

[monster_bertuzzi]

Referring to Crosby??

Croz could be ranked even higher as it stands on this day, if anything. There are several other undrafted active players who's resume's all of a sudden have me going ''wait a second what makes so and so better, again?''.

 

[BenchBrawl]

Well, don't just auto pick! There still has to be consideration made to what you need, and already have.

But to be honest, yes, I'm a proponent of the BPA. I don't think it would be a bad strategy to just take the bpa with your first 6-7 picks. Get the very best guys to carry your team, then work on complementing them. It's not like you won't find players who can.

Like, cam Neely? I mean, you don't build around him, you use him to support the players you do build around, and if you take him early over a building block you put yourself behind the 8 ball.



God, no

I can't agree with the sentiment of just picking the BPA for your first 6-7 picks.Isn't the BPA more often than not a center in that interval?

That being said, I don't agree with reaching too much just to fill needs neither.

With your first draft pick you should pick the best player available (with the possible exception of the goalie position if you strategically think that given the few amount of goalies in this league the gap of rounds separating them isn't worth the +value the best ones offer you).It seems like a bad strategy to pick a player at the same position with your 2nd round pick (unless it's a defenseman I guess, but even still...) even if he's the BPA.

I also enjoy predicting the tiers of players at each position that is likely to be available for my next few rounds, and try to optimize.But when I'm saying all of this I don't advocate reaching massively for players in the name of intangibles or positions, just that there's more to drafting for me than the BPA.

Then again it's just one man's take on team building.

 

[seventieslord]

I can't agree with the sentiment of just picking the BPA for your first 6-7 picks.Isn't the BPA more often than not a center in that interval?

That being said, I don't agree with reaching too much just to fill needs.

With your first draft pick you should pick the best player available (with the possible exception of the goalie position if you strategically think that given the few amount of goalies in this league the gap of rounds separating them isn't worth the +value the best ones offer you).It seems like a bad strategy to pick a player at the same position with your 2nd round pick (unless it's a defenseman I guess, but even still...) even if he's the BPA.

I also enjoy predicting the tiers of players at each position that is likely to be available for my next few rounds, and try to optimize.But when I'm saying all of this I don't advocate reaching massively for players in the name of intangibles or positions, just that there's more to drafting for me than the BPA.

Then again it's just one man's take on team building.

That brings me to the next strategy. Scoop up the best wingers first. Then centers. You'll be a little behind on centers, but A LOT ahead on the wings.

Also, when I say take the bpa, I still mean to do it smartly, not 3 defense in a row or three centers. If after four picks you have two forwards, a defenseman and a goalie, and you've just been taking BPAs, you're probably looking very good.

 

[BenchBrawl]

That brings me to the next strategy. Scoop up the best wingers first. Then centers. You'll be a little behind on centers, but A LOT ahead on the wings.

Also, when I say take the bpa, I still mean to do it smartly, not 3 defense in a row or three centers. If after four picks you have two forwards, a defenseman and a goalie, and you've just been taking BPAs, you're probably looking very good.

Definitely looking very good, unfortunately I think it's getting harder to do without trades.The way I look at this, if you have to grab your #1 defenseman in the 2nd round, you are already committed NOT to take the BPA.The same is true for the 3rd and 4th round.This implies that to follow your scenario you need to grab him in the 1st round.Then I think it's possible that a winger could be the best player available in the 2nd round, but I would have to re-check.I'm suspicious of this statement, but maybe Cook COULD be the BPA when he's taken in any given year depending if someone falls? So then you can take a center and goalie, and both have good chances to be the best available.That's the only way to follow your scenario on top of my head.

 

[seventieslord]

Definitely looking very good, unfortunately I think it's getting harder to do without trades.The way I look at this, if you have to grab your #1 defenseman in the 2nd round, you are already committed NOT to take the BPA.The same is true for the 3rd and 4th round.This implies that to follow your scenario you need to grab him in the 1st round.Then I think it's possible that a winger could be the best player available in the 2nd round, but I would have to re-check.I'm suspicious of this statement, but maybe Cook COULD be the BPA when he's taken in any given year depending if someone falls? So then you can take a center and goalie, and both have good chances to be the best available.That's the only way to follow your scenario on top of my head.

I should clarify that I mean positional BPAs. But in theory, if you follow this, when you take a defenseman you're still going to get better value than 3-4 guys who picked defensemen before you.

 

[BenchBrawl]

I should clarify that I mean positional BPAs. But in theory, if you follow this, when you take a defenseman you're still going to get better value than 3-4 guys who picked defensemen before you.

Sorry, I should've got that you meant positional BPAs.

Then yes.Though in the hypothetical scenario that you keep getting unidimensional BPAs (think offensive forwards mostly), I really like to get at least one guy with some defensive or physical abilities within my top guys.I guess this scenario is a bit unlikely because a lot of players aren't completely unidimensional.

Personaly I'm having a hard time nailing down the ranking of defensemen in some tier (particularly the 2nd round tier).That's my problem though.

 

[SchultzSquared*]

Well, don't just auto pick! There still has to be consideration made to what you need, and already have.

But to be honest, yes, I'm a proponent of the BPA. I don't think it would be a bad strategy to just take the bpa with your first 6-7 picks. Get the very best guys to carry your team, then work on complementing them. It's not like you won't find players who can.

Like, cam Neely? I mean, you don't build around him, you use him to support the players you do build around, and if you take him early over a building block you put yourself behind the 8 ball.

Neely was literally the fourth forward I took... so yes this circumstance is different... I also had my 1D AND then at good value added a #2 right after... now I am way ahead on building... with two picks in Round 6/7... right where certain positions take on best value IMO (2C and some thing else)

 

[Dreakmur]

That brings me to the next strategy. Scoop up the best wingers first. Then centers. You'll be a little behind on centers, but A LOT ahead on the wings.

Also, when I say take the bpa, I still mean to do it smartly, not 3 defense in a row or three centers. If after four picks you have two forwards, a defenseman and a goalie, and you've just been taking BPAs, you're probably looking very good.

The issue is how do you define BPA. Personally, I thought Cy Denneny was the best player on the board when we picked him, but I don't think that would be a consensus.

 

[seventieslord]

The issue is how do you define BPA. Personally, I thought Cy Denneny was the best player on the board when we picked him, but I don't think that would be a consensus.

It's who you have the data to prove is the BPA. The projects have done most of that for you, luckily.

 

[Dreakmur]

It's who you have the data to prove is the BPA. The projects have done most of that for you, luckily.

Pretty tough to "prove" subjective opinions

 

[seventieslord]

Pretty tough to "prove" subjective opinions

That's all anyone does in these things.