Hockey Outsider
Registered User
- Jan 16, 2005
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1. Goaltending
Interestingly, Dryden and Holmes faced off recently in ATD #11. Dryden is (depending on whom you ask) at the bottom of the top tier of goalies, or at the top of the second tier; Holmes is generally regarded as a solid starter in an ATD context. Holmes was a first-team all-star once in his career (1925 – see footnote 2); Dryden earned that honour five times in just seven years. I’ll concede that Holmes is underrated playoff goalie – but Dryden is generally accepted as one of the greatest clutch goalies in hockey history. Thunder Bay has a sizeable advantage at the most important position.
2. Taylor
I think Nalyd and I disagree on this issue; it’s up to the voters to call this one. Just to be clear, I think that Taylor, had he been drafted as a forward, would be the second best talent in this series after Jagr. However, I think it’s unrealistic to suggest that Taylor would be anywhere near as effective as a defenseman.
I completely disagree with calling Lidstrom a complementary player; he’s proven for close to two decades that he can simultaneously be one of the top ten (or so) greatest offensive defensemen in hockey history, and probably one of the top ten greatest defensive defenseman. I think it requires a tremendous leap of faith to suggest that Taylor, being forced to play in the more conservative defenseman role, would be anywhere near as effective as he was while a rover or forward. On top of that, I haven’t read much about Taylor’s defensive game at all; given that it isn't too difficult to find quotes about the defensive ability of other star players from that era, it leads me to believe that Taylor was probably around average defensively. (I’m not willing to assume that speed, which Taylor has in abundance, necessarily translates into good defensive play). Even in the best case scenario, where Taylor somehow maintains Coffey-level offense while being forced to play the most conservative non-goalie position in hockey, overall I’d still put Lidstrom ahead due to a two-decade track record that conclusively demonstrates that he can simultaneously be among the very best in history in the offensive and defensive zone. I have the utmost respect for Taylor as a forward and rover but I feel the Saints are expecting far too much from Taylor based on his role on the team.
3. Discipline
I concede that the Saints are the tougher team, but they are also by far less disciplined. This chart shows each player’s career average PIM per 82 games. This isn’t adjusted for era (and probably should be) but I think this is still a solid starting point.
<chart>
Minnesota, as a team, takes nearly 60% more PIM than Thunder Bay (see footnote 1). It’s conceivable to suggest that this could give the Twins an extra 12 powerplays over the course of the series. The players most likely to respond to fisticuffs are Ulf Samuelsson, our #6 defenseman, and Adam Graves, the only forward on our team without a regular shift on the PP or PK.
However, there’s more to it than just looking at the team-wide averages. Consider the following:
a. Jagr, clearly the best forward in the series, is surprisingly undisciplined. He actually spends more time in the box than any of the Twins’ top six forwards, which is obviously problematic as he’s the cornerstone to the Saints’ offense. Jagr didn’t take smart, defensive penalties; most of his minors were simply due to frustration.
b. Gainey is universally lauded for being a smart, disciplined player but it’s worth noting that each of the Twins’ top four penalty killing forwards all take fewer penalties than Gainey (Madden 22 PIM, St. Louis 27 PIM, Goyette 11 PIM and Rousseau 31 PIM).
c. As much as Pronger is criticized for his lack of discipline, it’s unquestionable that the Saints have the more reckless blueline overall. Lidstrom, Zubov and Hajt and three of the most disciplined blueliners ever, especially given Lidstrom & Zubov’s ice time, and given Lidstrom & Hajt’s commitment to clean defensive play.
4. Bottom six forwards
The teams are quite different here. The Saints generally feature tough, strong players with solid goal-scoring ability (Sloan, Kurtenbach, Stewart, Smyl). The Twins generally have fast two-way forwards (St. Louis, Rousseau, Goyette). Which team has the better bottom six? I’m not sure, but I’m pretty sure the Twins forwards are more suited to this series.
It’s uncontroversial to state that both teams have among the very fastest top six forwards in the draft: Maltsev, Cowley, Kariya, Modano, Conacher, Jagr, Bentley, Darragh and MacKay were all exceptional skaters. One of the key to this series is: which team has the right mix of depth players to contain these speedy forwards?
The Saints bottom six forwards certainly have the edge in toughness but it will very tough for them to hit the Twins’ stars consistently. Only Crawford (who won three retro Selkes – though this would merely offset Berlinquette’s) was elite defensively and only he and McGee were above-average skaters. On the other hand, the Twins have very fast bottom six forwards (St. Louis, Berlinquette, Rousseau and Goyette were all known for there speed and defensive ability, though Graves is a notable exception).
- Berlinquette won three retro Selke trophies (which certainly aren’t a perfect measure but certainly highlight his defensive value) and was known as the “Flying Frenchman†due to his speed.
- Rousseau was lauded for his “exemplary two-way play†(source) and was known for “shadowing the opposition when playing against top scoring lines and often leading shorthanded rushes up the ice†(source)
- Goyette “learned the fine art of defensive anticipation, shadowing your check and face-offs†(source) killing penalties on the Habs dynasty
- Madden has been one of the very best defensive forwards in the league for a decade and no further elaboration is necessary.
- St. Louis is a speedy two-way player, a SHG threat, and peaked at 4th in Selke voting.
Simply put, the Twins’ bottom six forwards have the speed and defensive ability to keep up with & slow down the Saints’ top two lines; I don’t think the same can be said for the Saints (footnote 3).
I will try to keep Maltsev away from Gainey where possible (fortunately the Twins have home ice advantage).
Footnote 1: again I realize this probably should be adjusted for era, some of the PIM relate to coincidental minors/fighting majors, and obviously I’m missing data for all non-NHL portions of all players’ careers but this is a reasonable starting point. To be fair my 60% estimate is based on the weighted, not simple average, so the huge number of penalties from Hall won't skew the average too badly.
Footnote 2: to be fair, Holmes was a second-team all-star in the PCHA several times. However I question how informative this is – since professional talent was split over multiple leagues during this era, this is probably the equivalent of being named the 2nd best goalie in a conference (so, outside of 1925, probably Holmes was the 3rd-4th best goalie in the consolidated league several times). That’s a nice honour but is clearly inferior to Dryden’s five first all-star team nominations (though, to be fair, perhaps Tretiak or Holecek could have challenged Dryden for some of those…)
Footnote 3: in the above comparison I was focusing on the bottom two lines; I certainly concede that Gainey-Bentley -MacKay-Crawford-Darragh is close to Berlinquette-Goyette-Rousseau-Madden-St.Louis. (Though I do question whether it’s worth it to give Gainey, a weak scorer by ATD standards, 2nd line minutes). With that said, Modano and Alfredsson provide excellent defensive play on the second line. Despite the Saints having Gainey, I think the Twins have the overall edge in defensive forwards.
Interestingly, Dryden and Holmes faced off recently in ATD #11. Dryden is (depending on whom you ask) at the bottom of the top tier of goalies, or at the top of the second tier; Holmes is generally regarded as a solid starter in an ATD context. Holmes was a first-team all-star once in his career (1925 – see footnote 2); Dryden earned that honour five times in just seven years. I’ll concede that Holmes is underrated playoff goalie – but Dryden is generally accepted as one of the greatest clutch goalies in hockey history. Thunder Bay has a sizeable advantage at the most important position.
2. Taylor
I think Nalyd and I disagree on this issue; it’s up to the voters to call this one. Just to be clear, I think that Taylor, had he been drafted as a forward, would be the second best talent in this series after Jagr. However, I think it’s unrealistic to suggest that Taylor would be anywhere near as effective as a defenseman.
I completely disagree with calling Lidstrom a complementary player; he’s proven for close to two decades that he can simultaneously be one of the top ten (or so) greatest offensive defensemen in hockey history, and probably one of the top ten greatest defensive defenseman. I think it requires a tremendous leap of faith to suggest that Taylor, being forced to play in the more conservative defenseman role, would be anywhere near as effective as he was while a rover or forward. On top of that, I haven’t read much about Taylor’s defensive game at all; given that it isn't too difficult to find quotes about the defensive ability of other star players from that era, it leads me to believe that Taylor was probably around average defensively. (I’m not willing to assume that speed, which Taylor has in abundance, necessarily translates into good defensive play). Even in the best case scenario, where Taylor somehow maintains Coffey-level offense while being forced to play the most conservative non-goalie position in hockey, overall I’d still put Lidstrom ahead due to a two-decade track record that conclusively demonstrates that he can simultaneously be among the very best in history in the offensive and defensive zone. I have the utmost respect for Taylor as a forward and rover but I feel the Saints are expecting far too much from Taylor based on his role on the team.
3. Discipline
I concede that the Saints are the tougher team, but they are also by far less disciplined. This chart shows each player’s career average PIM per 82 games. This isn’t adjusted for era (and probably should be) but I think this is still a solid starting point.
<chart>
Minnesota, as a team, takes nearly 60% more PIM than Thunder Bay (see footnote 1). It’s conceivable to suggest that this could give the Twins an extra 12 powerplays over the course of the series. The players most likely to respond to fisticuffs are Ulf Samuelsson, our #6 defenseman, and Adam Graves, the only forward on our team without a regular shift on the PP or PK.
However, there’s more to it than just looking at the team-wide averages. Consider the following:
a. Jagr, clearly the best forward in the series, is surprisingly undisciplined. He actually spends more time in the box than any of the Twins’ top six forwards, which is obviously problematic as he’s the cornerstone to the Saints’ offense. Jagr didn’t take smart, defensive penalties; most of his minors were simply due to frustration.
b. Gainey is universally lauded for being a smart, disciplined player but it’s worth noting that each of the Twins’ top four penalty killing forwards all take fewer penalties than Gainey (Madden 22 PIM, St. Louis 27 PIM, Goyette 11 PIM and Rousseau 31 PIM).
c. As much as Pronger is criticized for his lack of discipline, it’s unquestionable that the Saints have the more reckless blueline overall. Lidstrom, Zubov and Hajt and three of the most disciplined blueliners ever, especially given Lidstrom & Zubov’s ice time, and given Lidstrom & Hajt’s commitment to clean defensive play.
4. Bottom six forwards
The teams are quite different here. The Saints generally feature tough, strong players with solid goal-scoring ability (Sloan, Kurtenbach, Stewart, Smyl). The Twins generally have fast two-way forwards (St. Louis, Rousseau, Goyette). Which team has the better bottom six? I’m not sure, but I’m pretty sure the Twins forwards are more suited to this series.
It’s uncontroversial to state that both teams have among the very fastest top six forwards in the draft: Maltsev, Cowley, Kariya, Modano, Conacher, Jagr, Bentley, Darragh and MacKay were all exceptional skaters. One of the key to this series is: which team has the right mix of depth players to contain these speedy forwards?
The Saints bottom six forwards certainly have the edge in toughness but it will very tough for them to hit the Twins’ stars consistently. Only Crawford (who won three retro Selkes – though this would merely offset Berlinquette’s) was elite defensively and only he and McGee were above-average skaters. On the other hand, the Twins have very fast bottom six forwards (St. Louis, Berlinquette, Rousseau and Goyette were all known for there speed and defensive ability, though Graves is a notable exception).
- Berlinquette won three retro Selke trophies (which certainly aren’t a perfect measure but certainly highlight his defensive value) and was known as the “Flying Frenchman†due to his speed.
- Rousseau was lauded for his “exemplary two-way play†(source) and was known for “shadowing the opposition when playing against top scoring lines and often leading shorthanded rushes up the ice†(source)
- Goyette “learned the fine art of defensive anticipation, shadowing your check and face-offs†(source) killing penalties on the Habs dynasty
- Madden has been one of the very best defensive forwards in the league for a decade and no further elaboration is necessary.
- St. Louis is a speedy two-way player, a SHG threat, and peaked at 4th in Selke voting.
Simply put, the Twins’ bottom six forwards have the speed and defensive ability to keep up with & slow down the Saints’ top two lines; I don’t think the same can be said for the Saints (footnote 3).
I will try to keep Maltsev away from Gainey where possible (fortunately the Twins have home ice advantage).
Footnote 1: again I realize this probably should be adjusted for era, some of the PIM relate to coincidental minors/fighting majors, and obviously I’m missing data for all non-NHL portions of all players’ careers but this is a reasonable starting point. To be fair my 60% estimate is based on the weighted, not simple average, so the huge number of penalties from Hall won't skew the average too badly.
Footnote 2: to be fair, Holmes was a second-team all-star in the PCHA several times. However I question how informative this is – since professional talent was split over multiple leagues during this era, this is probably the equivalent of being named the 2nd best goalie in a conference (so, outside of 1925, probably Holmes was the 3rd-4th best goalie in the consolidated league several times). That’s a nice honour but is clearly inferior to Dryden’s five first all-star team nominations (though, to be fair, perhaps Tretiak or Holecek could have challenged Dryden for some of those…)
Footnote 3: in the above comparison I was focusing on the bottom two lines; I certainly concede that Gainey-Bentley -MacKay-Crawford-Darragh is close to Berlinquette-Goyette-Rousseau-Madden-St.Louis. (Though I do question whether it’s worth it to give Gainey, a weak scorer by ATD standards, 2nd line minutes). With that said, Modano and Alfredsson provide excellent defensive play on the second line. Despite the Saints having Gainey, I think the Twins have the overall edge in defensive forwards.
