ATD #10 - Foster Hewitt Semifinals: Houston Aeros (1) vs. Winnipeg Jets (5)

papershoes

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Houston Aeros
GM: Nalyd Psycho
Coach: Toe Blake

John Leclair - Cyclone Taylor - Vaclav Nedomansky
Johnny Gottselig (A) - Max Bentley - Peter Bondra
Rusty Crawford - Butch Goring - Johnny Pierson
Yvon Lambert - Vladimir Shadrin - Wilf Paiement
extras: Barney Stanley, Vic Stasiuk

Frantisek Pospisil - Dit Clapper (C)
Jean-Guy Talbot - Fern Flaman (A)
Petr Svoboda - Teppo Numminen
extra: Yuri Liapkin

Billy Smith
Paddy Moran

Power play units:
PP1: Leclair - Taylor - Nedomansky - Bentley - Clapper
PP2: Gottselig - Goring - Bondra - Pospisil - Numminen

Penalty killing units:
PK1: Taylor - Crawford - Talbot - Flaman
PK2: Goring - Gottselig - Pospisil - Clapper


VS.


Winnipeg Jets
GM: vancityluongo & Evil Speaker
Coaches: Jacques Demers, Lindy Ruff

Reg Noble - Norm Ullman - Jaromir Jagr
Rick Martin - Dale Hawerchuk (A) - Rick Vaive
Jere Lehtinen - Doug Risebrough - Claude Provost
Shayne Corson - Keith Primeau - Jim Peplinski
extra: Wayne Merrick

Rod Langway (A) - Doug Wilson
Hap Day (C) - Ted Green
Paul Reinhart - Keith Magnuson
extra: Gary Bergman

Terry Sawchuk
Bill Ranford

Power play units:
PP1: Martin - Ullman - Jagr - Day - Wilson
PP2: Noble - Hawerchuk - Vaive - Reinhart - Green

Penalty killing units:
PK1: Risebrough - Provost - Langway - Green
PK2: Primeau - Lehtinen - Day - Magnuson​
 
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God Bless Canada

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I think what this series will come down to is if Winnipeg can handle the top two lines of the Aeros. Nalyd went off the board to get Taylor, and then he fluked out by picking Bentley about 50 spots lower than Bentley should go. The Houston wingers are good, but not great, and if you can disrupt the puck distribution from Taylor and Magic Max to the wingers, you can beat Houston.

But it takes a certain type of play to do it. You need fast, highly intelligent and smartly aggressive players to do it. Play Taylor and Bentley too aggressive, and they'll burn you. And if you overcompensate the next time, they'll burn you again.

Winnipeg has three really good defensive centres in Ullman, Risebrough and Primeau. None of them were outstanding defensively for an extended period of time. Primeau was, for my money, the best defensive player in the world for about one-and-a-half years in 2003 and 2004. He would have cakewalked to the Selke in 2004 if he didn't get hurt. He's big and he's really quick for a player with his size and he's smart defensively, too. He's probably the best bet to play against Bentley or Taylor, but the flip side is that he never faced anything like them in the playoffs in 2003 or 2004.

I think Hap Day will be the key guy for Winnipeg. As I said before, I think he's the Jets best defenceman. With his mobility, hockey sense and toughness, he probably represents the Jets best hope against Taylor or Bentley. I don't know if this is the ideal situation for Rod Langway.

Winnipeg probably has the best defensive/checking line left in the draft. That'll come in handy against this team. Provost and Lehtinen are terrific. Two of the top three defensive line RWs of all-time. Lehtinen's out of position, but he has played LW before, and he played it well.

I've said it before: I think Dit Clapper is one of the most valuable players in the draft. He might be the only guy in the draft who can play on any line or any pairing. He can be your No. 1 all-round defenceman. He can log big minutes against the opponent's top line. He can accept a reduced role on a third pairing. (That would be silly, though). He can play RW on any line. He's a tremendous leader. He's a great guy. He's tough. He's durable. In this series, he'll be playing big minutes against Jagr. He's not Houston's best player, but he is their most valuable.

Give Winnipeg the edge in net, but not a big one. Not in the playoffs against Billy Smith. There is an edge, but this is Billy Smith's time of year. One of the best playoff goalies ever.

Warning to Rick Vaive: do not stand in front of Billy Smith's crease.

And a big edge behind the bench to Houston. Blake's in a lot of top two lists. Demers and Ruff are good, but they're a big step back from Blake.
 

vancityluongo

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I won't be able to go through this series as in-depth as the last one, which is a shame, because I know Nalyd can really get going in arguments, and discussions are often heated.

However, I'll try and post some stuff, either later this weekend, or early next week. Good luck to Houston, you guys have a very solid team, and I'm looking forward to the challenge of playing the division champs.
 

Nalyd Psycho

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Looking at the rosters, this doesn't feel like a 1 vs 5. But, hey, in this ATD, if you can't beat great teams, you can't beat any team.

So yeah, lets keep it a clean battle, but a battle none the less. :D

First things first. I don't think Winnipeg's centers have the ability to match-up against either Taylor or Bentley, let alone both.

Ullman: A very good two-way player for sure, but, watching quick and creative guys like Bentley and Taylor is a full time job. And if Winnipeg wants to give their best offensive center that job, go ahead, make my day.

Hawerchuk: Could skate with Bentley and the closest any Jet center would be to skating with Taylor. But, aside from that, just not a particularly defensive center. He would get burned.

Riseborough: Thing about Riseborough is he's more of an energy center than a defensive center. I have absolutely no doubt that he'd give 110% in what ever role he's assigned. But, does he have the vision and instincts to not get tangled up too frequently? I'm not so sure?

Primeau: Personally, this guy is not ATD material. A chronically disappointing 2nd line power forward who finally put it together as an all-round player for a year and a half before being sidelined by concussions. The guy was mediocre to poor defensively for most of his career. I like this line from legends of hockey, " In more recent years, he has been characterized as one of the league's best forwards who is not necessarily the best at any one thing in particular." And while his mobility is excellent for a guy his size, having him try to skate with Taylor would be hilarious. In ATD 9 I gut burned with Holik trying to shut down Bentley and Holik is much better defensively than Primeau.

I'll be perfectly honest, Merrick would be a much better fit than a VERY exploitable Primeau.
 

God Bless Canada

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Looking at the rosters, this doesn't feel like a 1 vs 5. But, hey, in this ATD, if you can't beat great teams, you can't beat any team.

So yeah, lets keep it a clean battle, but a battle none the less. :D

First things first. I don't think Winnipeg's centers have the ability to match-up against either Taylor or Bentley, let alone both.

Ullman: A very good two-way player for sure, but, watching quick and creative guys like Bentley and Taylor is a full time job. And if Winnipeg wants to give their best offensive center that job, go ahead, make my day.

Hawerchuk: Could skate with Bentley and the closest any Jet center would be to skating with Taylor. But, aside from that, just not a particularly defensive center. He would get burned.

Riseborough: Thing about Riseborough is he's more of an energy center than a defensive center. I have absolutely no doubt that he'd give 110% in what ever role he's assigned. But, does he have the vision and instincts to not get tangled up too frequently? I'm not so sure?

Primeau: Personally, this guy is not ATD material. A chronically disappointing 2nd line power forward who finally put it together as an all-round player for a year and a half before being sidelined by concussions. The guy was mediocre to poor defensively for most of his career. I like this line from legends of hockey, " In more recent years, he has been characterized as one of the league's best forwards who is not necessarily the best at any one thing in particular." And while his mobility is excellent for a guy his size, having him try to skate with Taylor would be hilarious. In ATD 9 I gut burned with Holik trying to shut down Bentley and Holik is much better defensively than Primeau.

I'll be perfectly honest, Merrick would be a much better fit than a VERY exploitable Primeau.
Did you watch Primeau in the year-and-a-half before the lockout? He was outstanding defensively. He used his size and mobility to full advantage. As I said before: if he didn't get hurt midway through 2003-04, he would have been a lock for the Selke Trophy. I think he's better-suited to matching up against Magic Max than Holik, because Primeau is quicker than Holik.

It's too bad that Primeau's shift in duty happened so late in his career, because when he did make the shift, he became the best in the league for defensive forwards. And it's too bad he ran into the concussion problems, because it limited his longevity as an elite defensive forward.
 

Nalyd Psycho

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Did you watch Primeau in the year-and-a-half before the lockout? He was outstanding defensively. He used his size and mobility to full advantage. As I said before: if he didn't get hurt midway through 2003-04, he would have been a lock for the Selke Trophy. I think he's better-suited to matching up against Magic Max than Holik, because Primeau is quicker than Holik.

It's too bad that Primeau's shift in duty happened so late in his career, because when he did make the shift, he became the best in the league for defensive forwards. And it's too bad he ran into the concussion problems, because it limited his longevity as an elite defensive forward.

Not denying he was good at the end, but a year and a half does not outweigh a decade of mediocrity.

Did you see Holik back in the mid 90's with the Crash Line? Much better than Primeau ever was defensively.
 

Sturminator

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Ullman: A very good two-way player for sure, but, watching quick and creative guys like Bentley and Taylor is a full time job. And if Winnipeg wants to give their best offensive center that job, go ahead, make my day.

Hawerchuk: Could skate with Bentley and the closest any Jet center would be to skating with Taylor. But, aside from that, just not a particularly defensive center. He would get burned.

I think this is rather unfair. Norm Ullman was a strong 2-way player throughout his whole career, and was able to maintain his checking prowess without losing any offense. He was also an excellent skater. Taylor is obviously not an easy player to contain, but Norm Ullman is one of the better matchups against him, IMO, and won't be playing "full time" defense in the process of slowing down the Cyclone. I also give Ullman the advantage on faceoffs and along the boards, so it's not like this matchup is a cakewalk for Taylor, either.

As far as Hawerchuk vs. Bentley is concerned, neither man will check the other effectively, in my opinion. It will be "Ole!" defense both ways in this matchup, so this really comes down to evaluating how good they were offensively relative to one another. I think Bentley clearly wins this, but saying that Hawerchuk can't check Bentley is somewhat misleading because the reverse is also true. Houston also may face something of a physicality problem on the second line. Bentley and Bondra are not going to make space on the line, so that duty falls to Johnny Gottselig. While I respect Johnny's game, is he really an ideal power guy for a scoring line? How will he do in the corners against Rick Vaive? Your skill players can't score if they can't get the puck off the boards.
 

vancityluongo

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Woo! I finished a months worth of work on the weekend, so hell yeah procrastination! Hopefully I'm not procrastinating on the series though.

I'll add a lot more soon, but a couple quick key points:

-Thanks Sturm for the whole post about Ullman and Hawerchuk. I agree wholeheartedly, and I think you aren't giving Ullman enough credit Nalyd.

-With Primeau, agreed with GBC that you aren't giving enough credit here again Nalyd. However, the point that you make is fairly irrelevant, because at home, that line will be against your third line. The second line will likely match up against the Bentley line, while Ullman will try and get out against the Taylor line or the fourth line. He could handle Bentley, and maybe contain Taylor IMO, but if we get our way, Primeau won't see much of either, although he is capable. Like I brought out last series, Phil Esposito said for a stretch in the playoffs, he was the most dominant player he'd ever witnessed, moreso than Gretzky, Orr and Howe. Hyperbole? Yup. Exaggeration? Hell yeah. But every exaggeration is based on the truth, and the truth is, he was a defensive beast.

-On defense, you have the best defenseman in Clapper. After that though, I'd say we have the next three best. I know you're a Langway fan Nalyd, so I don't know how much convincing you need on that. I disagree that he'll be in trouble against your two speedy centers, but that's an argument for later. Hap Day is being referred to as our best defenseman for his mobility, offensive smarts and toughness. Wilson obviously has the Norris, whatever that means.

-Even with Taylor, I believe Jagr is still the best offensive player in the series. Similar to Lalonde last series, Taylor has some advantages, although he's much more one dimensional than Lalonde. We can get in depth with that as well.

-Size. Maybe I'm looking at your roster and going "Bentley is small, Taylor is small, BAM!", but at first glance, I think we have the tougher, bigger team.

-The wings. While you have an advantage down the middle for the top two lines, we have a clear advantage on the wings. The Bondra pick was questioned, and while you couldn't have done much better considering where you got him, I still don't know if he's suited to play a top-6 role. Shayne Corson for example would not be a fun matchup for him, because of his physicality, and Bondra's lack of, IMO. And while that is pushing it a bit in terms of fairness, here's a serious question; are Leclair and Nedomansky physical enough to open up room for Cyclone? How about Gottselig and Bondra to open up room for Magic Max, or to handle physical duties at all, against guys like Vaive?

Edit: ^ Just noticed Sturm also pointed that out, FWIW.

-Goaltending versus coaching. It was brought up last series, and will definitely be brought up again in this series. I think Blake is a better coach than Lester Patrick, and your team is equally suited to Blake's style as Regina was to Patrick. However, even with Billy Smith stepping it up, big time this time of year, I still think Benedict is/was the better goalie, and therefore the gap between Sawchuk and Smith is even bigger than last series.


Looking forward to hearing some of what you have to say, and am really excited at possibly getting some discussion going.
 

Nalyd Psycho

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Before I start, I should note, I'm not matching forwards to forwards, at all. The opening face-off will have the Taylor line, but, after that, no deliberate match-ups.

Instead, I'll be matching forwards to defence and defence to forwards.

I want Pospisil and Clapper vs Ullman and Jagr and Talbot and Flaman vs the Hawerchuk line. I want the Taylor line vs Day and Green and Bentley vs Reinhart and Magnuson. After that, I leave it in Blake's hands.

-Thanks Sturm for the whole post about Ullman and Hawerchuk. I agree wholeheartedly, and I think you aren't giving Ullman enough credit Nalyd.

-With Primeau, agreed with GBC that you aren't giving enough credit here again Nalyd. However, the point that you make is fairly irrelevant, because at home, that line will be against your third line. The second line will likely match up against the Bentley line, while Ullman will try and get out against the Taylor line or the fourth line. He could handle Bentley, and maybe contain Taylor IMO, but if we get our way, Primeau won't see much of either, although he is capable. Like I brought out last series, Phil Esposito said for a stretch in the playoffs, he was the most dominant player he'd ever witnessed, moreso than Gretzky, Orr and Howe. Hyperbole? Yup. Exaggeration? Hell yeah. But every exaggeration is based on the truth, and the truth is, he was a defensive beast.
The big difference between checking most scorers and Taylor is Taylor's speed. If Taylor goes 75%, Ullman will have to go 100% to match it. And Taylor will have enough in the tank to go 100% late in the game when Ullman is exhausted. Over a seven game series that is a factor.

There are two ways to check a guy like Taylor: 1) Play conservative, make him come to you. 2) Work your f#*%ing ass off.

Ullman playing a conservative defensive style would be a boon for me. And, assuming this goes 6 or 7 games, which it will, the more I make a guy like Ullman work in games 1-5 will pay dividends in games 6 and 7.

I'm not planning to do a direct match-up, but, if you think Ullman vs Taylor won't hurt Ullman's production, you are fooling yourself, it takes more than hockey sense to stop a Cyclone.

Keep in mind, I won the division, I get 4 games with last line change. At the very least, Primeau will take lots of face-offs against Taylor and Bentley.

Not saying Primeau sucks or nothing. His well rounded play was just too small a part of his career for him to be concidered effective in an ATD environment.

-On defense, you have the best defenseman in Clapper. After that though, I'd say we have the next three best. I know you're a Langway fan Nalyd, so I don't know how much convincing you need on that. I disagree that he'll be in trouble against your two speedy centers, but that's an argument for later. Hap Day is being referred to as our best defenseman for his mobility, offensive smarts and toughness. Wilson obviously has the Norris, whatever that means.

You'll find no argument from me that Clapper is the best defenceman in the series and that Langway is the second best.

On the flipside, I will argue that Hap Day is worse than Pospisil. Wilson is open to debate, he's the 2nd best offensive d-man in the series, and it is too hard to compare between him, Flaman and Pospisil due to leagues, eras, styles of play and what not. I view them as all roughly equal, but debates can be made for all 3.

I've already gone through and demonstrated through MVP voting how Pospisil was not just the best defenceman in the golden age of Czechoslovakian hockey, but was also consistantly one of the elite Czechoslovakian players.

Flaman has 3 2nd team all-stars in a league with Doug Harvey, Red Kelly, Bill Gadsby, Tom Johnson, Tim Horton, Marcel Pronovost and other legends. Everyone knows the Gordie Howe quote, "He's the toughest defenseman I ever played against." But everyone forget Beliveau's take on him, "Any other player I do not worry about, but when I go near that fellow, believe me I look over my shoulder." Yes, the 6-1 and 6-3 powerforwards most fearsome physical opponent in the 1950's was the 5-10 Flaman. He was strong and he knew how to use his strength. Hockey Hall of Fame journalist Jim Proudfoot had this to say of Flaman, "When hockey players talk shop, they frequently discuss the matter of who is their toughest opponent. A note of something bordering on awe creeps into the conversation when the name Flaman comes up. It is not a question of fear, for Flaman is not a vicious player, but a question of knowing that Flaman can deal a devastating body check, that he is among the most competent of defencemen in the business, and that, if aroused, he is one of the most capable fisticuffers in the league." And, to top it off, he twice captained the Bruins to the cup finals.

Fern Flaman is one of the toughest shutdown d-men in NHL history. He's a shade below Scott Stevens and Jack Stewart, not below Hap Day.

Hap Day was never named to a post season all-star team, although why he wasn't on the 2nd all-star team in '33 is a mystery and he did have some solid years pre-all-star teams. Keep in mind, he was inducted into the Hall in 1961, long after his playing career, and his brilliant coaching career. It would be foolish to say his coaching exploits didn't help him get inducted. Because, honestly, if you take a way his coaching success, I fail to see why he'd be in the Hall at all. Not to say he's a bad player, he's a great 2nd pairing guy in the ATD. But, he was simply not elite. Clapper, Langway, Wilson, Pospisil and Flaman ware all elite talents in their realms. Hap Day was just very good.

-Even with Taylor, I believe Jagr is still the best offensive player in the series. Similar to Lalonde last series, Taylor has some advantages, although he's much more one dimensional than Lalonde. We can get in depth with that as well.

Taylor is not one dimensional. We're talking about a guy who was regarded as the best center in the world, the best rover in the world and the best defenceman in the world at different points of his career.

And lets face it, Taylor's combination of speed, agility, skating and puck control is a dimension in itself. A skill set that is so rare it isn't even generational. Taylor, Morenz, Orr, Kharlamov and Bure, that is it. And what's the common trend? When applied, it is a game breaking skill set that no one can defend against. Dirty play is often resorted to. And Clapper, Flaman and Paiement will make people suffer for trying that.

-Size. Maybe I'm looking at your roster and going "Bentley is small, Taylor is small, BAM!", but at first glance, I think we have the tougher, bigger team.

Your team is bigger. But mine is quicker. And my defence is very tough, but also very clean.

-The wings. While you have an advantage down the middle for the top two lines, we have a clear advantage on the wings. The Bondra pick was questioned, and while you couldn't have done much better considering where you got him, I still don't know if he's suited to play a top-6 role. Shayne Corson for example would not be a fun matchup for him, because of his physicality, and Bondra's lack of, IMO. And while that is pushing it a bit in terms of fairness, here's a serious question; are Leclair and Nedomansky physical enough to open up room for Cyclone? How about Gottselig and Bondra to open up room for Magic Max, or to handle physical duties at all, against guys like Vaive?

Edit: ^ Just noticed Sturm also pointed that out, FWIW.

Here's a listing of NHL goal scoring titles won in this series.

Peter Bondra-2
Norm Ullman-1

That is it, 3 goal scoring titles won, 2/3 won by Bondra. He is VERY well suited to a 2nd line role. Heck, if all you need is a pure sniper who can skate, Bondra is 1st line worthy. From the ten year period of 1994/95 through 2003/04, only Jagr has more goals.

Shayne Corson would be a fun match-up for Bondra. Well, he wouldn't even notice the match-up, what with Bondra having to look over his shoulder to see Corson. Bondra was for a long period the fastest player in the NHL. Corson may be tough, but he's not quick. And if he steps out of line, Paiement will be lining up against him a lot.

Are Leclair and Nedomansky going to make room for Taylor? Yes and no.

No, they aren't the type of players to pound opponents into the ice.

Yes, they have the strength to serve as excellent picks.

Yes, Taylor will be the primary puck carrier on the rush, but, once the rush is ended, both Leclair and Nedomansky can control the puck well, particularly Nedomansky, the Czechoslovakian system often relies on RWs to be the puck carrier and that style started because of the skill of Ned and Martinec. Therefore, when the play is set in the zone and all of Winnipeg's defence is in the zone, Nedomansky will be the primary puck carrier. Thus giving Taylor free reign of the high slot.

And the Bentley line will play a more Soviet style once the rush ends, lots of quick passing, avoiding the boards and corners, always moving their feet until a shot emerges. They will be more run and gun, giving up as many rushes as they create, but with their speed, backchecking is not a concern.

As for Vaive, say hello to Monsieur Talbot, you'll be seeing a lot of each other.

-Goaltending versus coaching. It was brought up last series, and will definitely be brought up again in this series. I think Blake is a better coach than Lester Patrick, and your team is equally suited to Blake's style as Regina was to Patrick. However, even with Billy Smith stepping it up, big time this time of year, I still think Benedict is/was the better goalie, and therefore the gap between Sawchuk and Smith is even bigger than last series.

I think coaching gets really underrated. I'd like to have an elite mind determining how my teams talents are used. But, I respect Patrick's abilities. I'd say Patrick & Sawchuk is a bit better than Blake & Smith, but not by much. And I think my defence will do a better job in bringing out the best in Smith than yours will in Sawchuk. And I think my fast paced offence will out gun yours while wearing out your forwards and causing your defencemen to take bad penalties.
 

vancityluongo

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I think coaching gets really underrated. I'd like to have an elite mind determining how my teams talents are used. But, I respect Patrick's abilities. I'd say Patrick & Sawchuk is a bit better than Blake & Smith, but not by much. And I think my defence will do a better job in bringing out the best in Smith than yours will in Sawchuk. And I think my fast paced offence will out gun yours while wearing out your forwards and causing your defencemen to take bad penalties.

My bad on the explanation here. Lester Patrick is the coach of Regina, the last team we faced. Our coaches are Jacques Demers and Lindy Ruff. I was pointing out that while Blake>Patrick>Demers/Ruff, Sawchuk>Benedict>Smith, so since we had an advantage last time, it can be said that we have an advantage here. Not a great analogy, but one I used anyways I guess.
 

Nalyd Psycho

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My bad on the explanation here. Lester Patrick is the coach of Regina, the last team we faced. Our coaches are Jacques Demers and Lindy Ruff. I was pointing out that while Blake>Patrick>Demers/Ruff, Sawchuk>Benedict>Smith, so since we had an advantage last time, it can be said that we have an advantage here. Not a great analogy, but one I used anyways I guess.

My bad.

IMO, Blake & Smith >>>>Demers, Ruff and Sawchuk
 
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I've always wondered why people jumble coaching and goaltending together? It seems to happen a fair bit, someone says that "yeah, you have the advantage in goaltending, but I have a greater advantage in coaching" and somehow that not only completely takes away the goaltending advantage, but makes the other team(with the better coaching and worse goaltending) seem a fair bit better. But why? Coaching and goaltending are two very seperate entities, and IMO there's no way coaching is more important than goaltending.
 

Nalyd Psycho

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I've always wondered why people jumble coaching and goaltending together? It seems to happen a fair bit, someone says that "yeah, you have the advantage in goaltending, but I have a greater advantage in coaching" and somehow that not only completely takes away the goaltending advantage, but makes the other team(with the better coaching and worse goaltending) seem a fair bit better. But why? Coaching and goaltending are two very seperate entities, and IMO there's no way coaching is more important than goaltending.

In this case it's simply because those are the only clear cut advantages.

As for coaching being more important than goaltending. I point you to Byron Dafoe. Former 2nd team all-star, but really, it was only because the coach created a system to hide his flaws and allow him to seem better than he is. A goaltender makes the teams defence better. By optimizing strengths and minimizing weakness, a coach makes the team better.
 
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In this case it's simply because those are the only clear cut advantages.

As for coaching being more important than goaltending. I point you to Byron Dafoe. Former 2nd team all-star, but really, it was only because the coach created a system to hide his flaws and allow him to seem better than he is. A goaltender makes the teams defence better. By optimizing strengths and minimizing weakness, a coach makes the team better.

Yeah, I didn't mean to pick on you, and can understand it, but I've seen it done quite a few times and I could not figure out why.

Also, while that is true, and simply a great point, I think history shows that the goaltending is more important than the coaching. Case in point, Stanley Cup champions. With the notable exception of Chris Osgood, I think you have to go back quite a ways to find a Stanley Cup champion that didn't feature either an elite goaltender or a goaltender who was playing like an elite goaltender(ie top Conn Smythe candidate). There's flaws in that statement, of course, but more often than not the team that wins it all has some exceptional goaltending. However, you can't really say the same for coaches. Some very average coaches have won it all, or have led their teams on a very deep run. Look at last year's ECF, where both teams had coaches that their fans hated and wanted fired. Again, there are flaws in that statement as well, but the point is that in many cases a team has won it all without a great head coach.

Some great examples, and recent ones at that, are the New Jersey Devils and Colorado Avalanche. With New Jersey, three cups, three different head coaches, one goaltender. Avalanche, two cups, two different head coaches, one goaltender.

I'm not about to deny you here. While he has Sawchuk, you have Billy Smith, an incredible playoff goaltender. He has the advantage, but it's not like you don't have a great goaltender. Meanwhile, you have one of the best of all-time, while he has two guys who are on the lower end of the spectrum. I just don't think, however, in most cases, they can be simply grouped together for the hell of it. I'm not buying it, at least.
 

vancityluongo

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In this case it's simply because those are the only clear cut advantages.

As for coaching being more important than goaltending. I point you to Byron Dafoe. Former 2nd team all-star, but really, it was only because the coach created a system to hide his flaws and allow him to seem better than he is.

Yeah, I also point to you Marty Brodeur, another complete product of the system. Right?

Looking at some recent cup winning coaches, using that logic, I can also point to you a guy like John Tortorella, or how about Marc Crawford. Yeah, they won the cup, but does Crawford win the cup with any other team except the Avs? I'm pretty sure it was Patty Roy and Joe Sakic were factors, not Crawford's system. Does Torts win it all coaching that year's version of the Leafs? How about Laviolette in '06? Does that team win the cup if not for the goaltending of Ward in the postseason?

LS, I agree with Nalyd that these two are grouped together in this case because of the clear advantages. I agree with you though, that goaltending is much more crucial to a series. Don't get me wrong, coaching makes a difference. However, the only way coaching determines a series is if he loses his room. This is the ATD. These are the best players and leaders ever, under the best hockey minds ever. I find it highly unlikely there's a riff raff in the dressing room of an ATD team. Unless you go to an extreme, such as drafting Sean Avery, or having a hothead like Barry Melrose.

Goaltending can lose you a game, but it can also steal you a series. There's much more chance of error, and there's also a much higher chance it's a difference maker. That's why having a significant advantage in net is more important than having a advantage behind the bench.

And I'm still going to argue that the advantage between Sawchuk and Smith is bigger than Blake and Demers/Ruff. While our guys aren't even middle of the pack ATD coaches alone, together, I definitely think we make up some ground on Blake.
 

vancityluongo

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Yeah, I didn't mean to pick on you, and can understand it, but I've seen it done quite a few times and I could not figure out why.

Also, while that is true, and simply a great point, I think history shows that the goaltending is more important than the coaching. Case in point, Stanley Cup champions. With the notable exception of Chris Osgood, I think you have to go back quite a ways to find a Stanley Cup champion that didn't feature either an elite goaltender or a goaltender who was playing like an elite goaltender(ie top Conn Smythe candidate). There's flaws in that statement, of course, but more often than not the team that wins it all has some exceptional goaltending. However, you can't really say the same for coaches. Some very average coaches have won it all, or have led their teams on a very deep run. Look at last year's ECF, where both teams had coaches that their fans hated and wanted fired. Again, there are flaws in that statement as well, but the point is that in many cases a team has won it all without a great head coach.

Some great examples, and recent ones at that, are the New Jersey Devils and Colorado Avalanche. With New Jersey, three cups, three different head coaches, one goaltender. Avalanche, two cups, two different head coaches, one goaltender.

I'm not about to deny you here. While he has Sawchuk, you have Billy Smith, an incredible playoff goaltender. He has the advantage, but it's not like you don't have a great goaltender. Meanwhile, you have one of the best of all-time, while he has two guys who are on the lower end of the spectrum. I just don't think, however, in most cases, they can be simply grouped together for the hell of it. I'm not buying it, at least.

I was watching the Nucks game while typing up the previous response, and didn't see your post.

You basically pointed out what I was trying to say, so I think we agree.

And again for clarification, while they can't be grouped together, you're right, look at it this way; if we deem coaching and goaltending as equal factors (which they aren't), and I have the clear advantage in goaltending, and he has it in coaching, that's two things we can negate as equal when combined: therefore we can look at closer issues more in-depth, such as defense. Too bad it isn't that easy, since goaltending plays a bigger factor, but it's definitely a start.

So yes, Nalyd I'll try and address the Day/Pospisil post if I can.
 

vancityluongo

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I understand that 12 GM's have already sent in their votes, so while I can't change their decisions, I can affect what the other 25 think of this series.

I really think that although we're the 5th seed, we can beat the division champs. We have a bunch of advantages that I hope aren't being overlooked. I'm going to try and point out some of the lesser talked about ones.


-Defensive forwards. Yeah, it's all fine and dandy that Houston has a Cyclone, and a Magician. We'll have some problems stopping them, even with the elite checking line, but whose gonna stop Jagr? Ullman? Hawerchuk? The latter two may not be as profound in the scoring department as the two Houston weapons, but Jagr is. You can match defensive pairings all you like, but what about forward units? Who is that third line going to play? Even if you stick Clapper and Pospisil against two of the forwards on our top line, you still have to have a forward checking a forward if you're playing a man-on-man defense. Looking a your third and fourth lines, Goring sticks out as elite/very good. Most of the others look average/below average.

(Another thing about coaching to add here: the "GM" makes a majority of the "decisions" when it comes to line matching usually. So it could be said that a major portion of the tactics needed to win a game/series are void right then and there). I'm not saying that we shouldn't have coaches for ATd teams, because on real teams they do play a role, I won't deny it. But it's very overrated.

-This definitely isn't a good series to have your teams two best defensive forwards as wingers, but we don't have a problem here really if you're looking at matching up your top centers against our defensemen.

-The Corson/Bondra post; while Bondra was speedy, Corson was gritty. So was Peplinski. So was Primeau. If that line lacks a defensive presence, they easily can make up for that in physicality. None of your lines from what I know about your bottom-6 guys provide that level of physicality.

-You point out our pairing of Reinhart-Magnusson. How about your bottom pairing of Svoboda-Teppo? I personally sometimes question Teppo in the ATD, and while Liapkin is slow (from what you say), I think he's still better than Numminen.

-Okay, the 2-3-4-5 argument on defense. Where to start?

First off, I don't see why you point out Flaman's advantage in defensive play over Hap Day. Yeah, fern was better in his own zone. But Hap was much better offensively. Day was also a smooth skater, and will help with our transition game. A much better comparison in terms of playing styles would be Flaman and Terrible Ted, and you win that one. You're right when you say that part of the reason Day is in the Hall is because of his coaching days. You're also right when you say those guys were all elite in their specific regard, while Day was just very good. Thing is, a few of those guys were just elite at that one facet of the game; and merely above average/good at most others. Hap Day was "very good/excellent" at almost every facet. He may not have been elite at anything, but still, he didn't have a weakness in his game. Flaman is a shade below Stevens defensively, and above Day. But I say Day is a shade above Flaman in all-around play.

Also, quotes are great and all, but what Beliveau and Howe said has to be taken with a grain of salt. Look at the Espo quote from earlier. Obviously, that was a much larger exaggeration, but still, I don't place much on quotes.

-As for Pospisil, I don't think I can come up with a fair argument really. I think while you point out those awards and credentials, we can't really be sure because of the level of competition he faced. I think when looking at him, you have to judge him the same way as some of the early Soviet stars, although I think we know more about them than the Czechs (I could be wrong here). So since I'm a fan of some of the early Soviet stars, I can give the benefit of the doubt here.

Hope I'm not too late for some responses, as although it'd be last minute, some more discussion would be great and fun, regardless.
 

seventieslord

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I don't think Nalyd is giving Day a fair shake. He'd have been in the hall either way, whether he coached or not. If you compare what's written about him and his credentials to those of a guy like Sylvio Mantha, (less than a year apart in age) it's not quite at that level, but it's close. He was one of the best offensive defensemen of his time, a great leader, and I haven't read anything bad about his defense, in fact, I found a quote saying that he was an excellent checking forward before dropping back to D. The only thing that raises doubts is his lack of AST nominations that guys like Mantha were taking over him. I think he gets taken a bit early (I think I said earlier, 7 spots after Mantha on average, which doesn't do Mantha justice) but he's a surefire hall of famer as a player.
 

Sturminator

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It should be noted that Day's teammate Red Horner was also never an all-star, and Red didn't make the hall because of any coaching record. It was a stacked era for defensemen as well as a time of bizarro all-star voting (discussed at length in ATD#8, if I recall correctly - I should dig up the old posts, but I'm too lazy right now), so I have a really hard time holding Day's 0 all-star nods much against him. I think he's in the upper eschelon of #3s, though Flaman should really be the #2 defenseman in Houston, so Day is not the best 2nd pairing guy in this series, as he would be against many teams.
 

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Jets Win in Game One Upset

The Winnipeg Jets took a 1-0 series lead in their Foster Hewitt semi-final with the Houston Aeros last night in Houston. Paced by airtight defensive play, the Jets only allowed 18 shots, none of which found the back of the net in their 2-0 victory. Things got off to a slow start with no goals until the last 5 minutes of the 2nd period. Dale Hawerchuk would take a pass from Rick Vaive and fire it past Billy Smith to put the Jets up 1-0. From here on out Winnipeg was content to sit back and rely on a tireless defensive effort to keep Houston at bay. All the home town's efforts were rebuffed at the Winnipeg blue line it seemed, as Houston would only manage 7 shots in the 3rd period. Houston would try one last time with an extra skater to tie the game, but would be rebuffed by Terry Sawchuk. With less than 10 seconds to go the Jets would get score on the empty net courtesy of Jaromir Jagr who would notch his first of the series to put the Jets up 2-0 and seal the victory for the road team.

Final: 2-0 Winnipeg

The Jets lead the series 1-0

Game Two: Houston Ties Series in OT Thriller

The Houston Aeros weren't about to go down 2-0 in their series against the Jets last night, and were the dominant team from start to finish. However, with Terry Sawchuk in goal, no win is guaranteed no matter how much rubber you fire at the net. Luckily for the Aeros, Max Bentley was on his game, scoring both Houston goals in 2-1 win over the Jets.

It would be Winnipeg that opened the scoring when Norm Ulmann would score on a rare playoff penalty shot midway through the first period.

It looked for awhile that once again one goal would be enough for the Jets. Terry Sawchuk turned everything he saw away frustrating the Aeros to no end. But finally, late in the 3rd the Aeros would get their first goal of the series when Max Bentley would tip in a point shot to tie the game and send it to overtime. Houston would not have to wait as long for their second goal, less than 5 minutes into the extra frame. Peter Bondra would come in off the wing and fire a pass to Bentley who snapped a one-timer past Sawchuk, sending the Houstons to their feet.

Final: 2-1 Houston
Series is Tied 1-1


Game 3: WHITEOUT! JETS WIN GAME 3!

The sea of white would not go home disappointed in Winnipeg last night, as the Jets downed the Aeros 4-2 in Game 3 of their Foster Hewitt Semifinal last night in Winnipeg. It would be 4th liner Keith Primeau who would open the scoring, putting the Jets up 1-0 midway through period number one. This time the Aeros would respond quickly. Just two shifts later, Cyclone Taylor potted his first of the series to tie the game at a goal apiece.

The second period would bring two more goals, both by the Jets. Jagr would score his 2nd of the series on a beautiful break away to give the lead to the Jets. Towards the end of the frame, Hap Day would fire in a point shot to give Winnipeg a 3-1 lead, and increasing the decibel level tenfold in the arena.

The fans would spend the entire final period on their feet, and realized this one was in the books when Jagr scored his 2nd of the game to put Winnipeg up 4-1. The crowd was in a frenzy and hardly even noticed when Dit Clapper scored late in the game to round out the scoring

Final: 4-2 Jets
Winnipeg leads series 2-1

Game Four: Jets Only One Win Away
The Houston Aeros are heading back home shocked after dropping both games in Winnipeg and finding themselves on the brink of elimination heading into Game 5. Despite their best efforts, nothing could get by Terry Sawchuk last night as the Aeros dropped a 3-0 decision to Winnipeg.

Norm Ulmann would open the scoring for the Jets intercepting a Houston pass and firing it past Smith giving his team the lead. Houston would press the rest of the way but to no avail. Shots rang of posts, were tipped wide or simply were stopped by the great Terry Sawchuk. In a last ditch effort the tie the game, Smith was pulled once again, this time with almost 2 minutes remaining. The Jets would score twice on the empty net, first on a goal by Claude Provost, and next by linemate Jere Lehtenin.

The chants of 'nah nah nah, nah nah nah HEY HEY HEY Goodbye' emanated from the street long into the night. The Jets fans were confident.

Final: 3-0 Jets
Winnipeg Lead the Series 3-1

Game 5: Houston Gets Back on Track with Game 5 Win
The Houston Aeros knocked off the Winnipeg Jets 4-1 last night to keep their hopes alive in their semi final playoff series. Houston came out flying getting the crowd into the game from the opening puck drop. The normally fantastic Sawchuk was caught flat footed early on, giving up 2 goals, one to Cyclone Taylor and the other to Max Bentley by the midway point of period number one. Winnipeg would cut that lead in half on a goal by Rick Vaive, but the Aeros would get their 2 goal lead back early in the third period on a goal by John Leclair to make it 3-1 Houston. Winnipeg wouldn't be able to sustain much pressure the rest of the way, and Fern Flaman would fire in a point shot late to round out the scoring giving the Aeros a 4-1 win.

Final: 4-1 Houston
Winnpeg leads series 3-2

Aeros Force Game 7
The Houston Aeros forced a seventh and deciding game in their best of 7 series last night, knocking off the Jets 2-1 in front of a Winnipeg crowd. Cyclone Taylor would score both goals for the Aeros in this one, the first a end to end rush in the first that even the Jets fans had to appreciate. Late in the 2nd the Jets would tie it up on a goal by Jagr, and the home crowd could feel the momentum on their side. Winnipeg would get several chances the rest of the way, but Smith would kick all the shots away to keep the Aeros in a tie with Winnipeg. Taylor would notch his 2nd goal of the game midway through the 3rd period to put the Aeros up 2-1. A late flurry by Winnipeg would be fruitless. The Aeros would win their 2nd straight, this time in a hostile road environment and were heading back to friendlier confines for a 7th and deciding game.

Felling the Giant, Jets Knock Off Top Ranked Aeros

The Winnipeg Jets are off to the Hewitt Division Finals after shocking the Houston Aeros, in Houston, in the 7th game of their semi-final. As has been the case so many times this series, Terry Sawchuk was the difference maker, stopping all 37 shots that came his way, in a 1-0 overtime win over Houston last night. These two teams would save the best for last in Game 7, keeping the fans on their feet all night long with great chances, great saves and great hits. From Sawchuk stopping the Aeros on a 2-minute 5 on 3, to Smith stopping 3 breakaways in the 2nd period alone to Ted Green sending John Leclair through the glass with a bonecrunching hit, this game had it all. It would take a 2nd overtime to put this one away, and the final hero was none other than Reg Noble who tipped in a Rod Langway point shot that just barely eluded the toe of Billy Smith who adjusted just in time to make a play on it, but to no avail. The Aeros fans were in a state of shock. Talks of a championship turned to talks of training camp as the fans exited the building. Back in Winnipeg they took to the streets until the early hours of the morning.

Final 1-0 Jets
Jets Win Series 4-3

3 Stars
1. Sawhuck
2. Bentley
3. Taylor
 
Jul 29, 2003
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Wow. I've noticed that last year, and the year's past, there weren't many upsets, but wow, things could be changing this year. Kudos to vcl as (thus far) the other team to go to the elite 8 as a 5 seed, knocking off a heavy favorite along the way.
 

VanIslander

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I didn't want to bias against #6s and #7s by mentioning it earlier but the fact is voting was razor thin between 1st and 5th for the regular season. If BM67 and agent dale cooper had voted, and in a certain way, the 5th place teams would have won their division! it was THAT close.

This has easily been the most competitive ATD yet.
 

vancityluongo

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Whoa.

Great series Nalyd, great writeups TC. I thought we were done for sure as soon as I read the 3-1 lead...

I agree that this was close as hell, of course no offense to Houston, as that was a solid team, and was obviously the consensus number 1 in the division. I'm happy that we knocked off the number one seed, but I'm more happy that people are actually starting to look at matchups rather than seedings.

Again, great series Nalyd, you had a great team.
 

God Bless Canada

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I hinted at this when I made my biggest upset of the draft so far comment in the Toronto/Buffalo series. And I do think Toronto/Buffalo was a bigger upset. But this one shocked me, too, simply because I didn't think that Winnipeg had the necessary guys to play against Taylor and Bentley. (Kenora and KC would have been another series).

And I'll admit that I was shocked when the results started to roll in, and the support for Winnipeg grew.

Anyways, tremendous series. Great job by VCL and the Speaker. (Will this be another permanent co-GM partnership?) Great job by Nalyd, too.
 

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