Around the NHL 2023-2024

[Ted Hoffman]

Nor do I think they should run it back without change. They should have made changes ever year for the last three. It still boggles my mind that an organization can think their defense and goaltending is good enough to compete for a cup.

I was just making a general comment about Matthews clearly not being 100%. No matter how flawed your roster is having your best player missing 2 games and playing injured in two others is never a recipe for success.

I'm not disagreeing with that, I'm just saying the Leafs have always leaned on an excuse for why they couldn't make changes and Matthews being hurt would be a fantastic excuse for not making changes yet again and giving it all one final shot. If it doesn't work yet again, Marner and Tavares are leaving in a year anyway so there's your change. They ... cannot do that.

If I'm Toronto, I ask Tom Stillman for permission to talk to Doug Armstrong and ask him "how much money and how much power do you want to come here" and give him what he wants. And I'm not saying that because I'm avidly anti-DA, I'm saying that because if people really think he's a great GM you put him at the top of the wishlist and say "do whatever it takes to get him." And then you do the same thing for head coach: figure out who you really want, go do whatever it takes to get him in. They cannot waste the prime years of Auston Matthews middling around with a roster that clearly is not built to win in the playoffs, and if they're going to try and win a Cup they have to go for broke.

 

[The Note]

I’d like to see Edmonton win. Everyone else left in the West can rot as far as I’m concerned. I don’t have any strong feelings about the East aside from hoping Boston gets their teeth kicked in by Florida.

 

[joe galiba]

I agree with the first part. But can't root for Vancouver, Colorado. In the East, I don't have strong feelings other than I tend to root for smaller market teams. Florida or Carolina would be great. I can't help but pull for Maroon to grow his legend and become Four Time Cup Champion Pat Maroon, though.

Maroon would then have to go and shoot some new updated commercials

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Maroon would then have to go and shoot some new updated commercials

He'd be just as good as Wayne Gretzky!

 

[Majorityof1]

I'm not disagreeing with that, I'm just saying the Leafs have always leaned on an excuse for why they couldn't make changes and Matthews being hurt would be a fantastic excuse for not making changes yet again and giving it all one final shot. If it doesn't work yet again, Marner and Tavares are leaving in a year anyway so there's your change. They ... cannot do that.

If I'm Toronto, I ask Tom Stillman for permission to talk to Doug Armstrong and ask him "how much money and how much power do you want to come here" and give him what he wants. And I'm not saying that because I'm avidly anti-DA, I'm saying that because if people really think he's a great GM you put him at the top of the wishlist and say "do whatever it takes to get him." And then you do the same thing for head coach: figure out who you really want, go do whatever it takes to get him in. They cannot waste the prime years of Auston Matthews middling around with a roster that clearly is not built to win in the playoffs, and if they're going to try and win a Cup they have to go for broke.

Armstrong is under contract for 2 more seasons. I don't think other teams can offer him anything without the Blues permission, which I doubt they'd give. Toronto will have to wait or look elsewhere. Why would Stillman give them permission to steal his GM that he has shown 0 indication of wanting to lose.

 

[Brian39]

If I'm Toronto, I ask Tom Stillman for permission to talk to Doug Armstrong and ask him "how much money and how much power do you want to come here" and give him what he wants. And I'm not saying that because I'm avidly anti-DA, I'm saying that because if people really think he's a great GM you put him at the top of the wishlist and say "do whatever it takes to get him." And then you do the same thing for head coach: figure out who you really want, go do whatever it takes to get him in. They cannot waste the prime years of Auston Matthews middling around with a roster that clearly is not built to win in the playoffs, and if they're going to try and win a Cup they have to go for broke.

I can't imagine a scenario where our organization gives another team to talk to our GM and President of Hockey Operations. I also can't see Army being interested in a position that gives him less power/autonomy than he currently has, so this hypothetical would rely on Brendan Shanahan being fired and Toronto ownership being okay with 1 guy doing a job that they have currently split between 2 people.

I'd be absolutely shocked if Toronto blows up their entire front office AND our ownership lets Army out of his contract.

 

[bleedblue1223]

I don't doubt that Toronto would want to do that, there was speculation of it last season. If Army leaves, he's leaving for a situation like he's currently in, full control. Shanahan's contract has 1 year left, so it's not unreasonable that Toronto starts making moves this summer or next with a complete overhaul.

I can't recall, what's in the CBA about compensation for poaching another GM or coach? Is compensation for us letting Army go a thing?

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

I hope the Blues win the draft lottery, but would be cool if 1st overall went to Utah.

 

[Majorityof1]

I hope the Blues win the draft lottery, but would be cool if 1st overall went to Utah.

We cannot win 1 OA. Only the bottom 11 can. Best we can do is 5 OA. We have a 1.1% chance if that.

 

[ezcreepin]

First things first, Armstrong is not leaving unless he’s fired. I think he likes his situation here and has full control.

Second, the Leafs are blowing it up, that much is certain. Keefe and Shanahan will be gone, and likely Marner (and maybe Tavares). If there is a scenario where Tavares leaves, I think that would be the best possible situation for us to get a 2nd line center who fills the role that we need. Strong defense, can score 60-70 points, plays on the pk, someone who can usher in Dvorsky and the kids while still competing. He has one more year left and after July 1st I think, he is owed like 900k or something close to league min. I don’t think the Leafs will be looking for much to offload him, but they’re going to be searching for defense, so there is a possibility you can move Krug or Faulk in that trade. I don’t know if they’d want to do something like this but maybe:

Blues get - Tavares (retained possibly)

Toronto gets - Faulk, Alexandrov, 2nd/3rd round pick

You might be able to get away with trading a 3rd instead of a 2nd, but Tavares is still a good player so I doubt you could get away with only trading someone like Faulk and Alexandrov. Idk it sort of makes sense in context

 

[Brian39]

Toronto should be looking to make changes, but I won't be surprised if they wind up having to just run things back next year. Marner and Tavares hold all the power and can simply refuse to waive. Or they can waive for a very small handful of preferred destinations and prevent Toronto from getting anything of real value beyond cap space.

What does Toronto do if Tavares or Marner's list of teams is Colorado, Vegas, Dallas, Edmonton, the Rangers, Tampa, and Florida? That's a fairly substantial list of teams for a guy with a full NMC and it would be hard to paint him as unreasonably wielding his trade protection at that point. That's not quite every contender, but it is most of them (plus the Lightning who have a great organizational reputation and were recently contenders). Most those teams would struggle to make his cap work without massive retention and/or Toronto taking back bad money.

Would Toronto eat $5M-$7M in dead/awful money just to get a deal done? Does that really make them any better? Neither of those two was good enough, but it isn't like they were actively bad. They were bad for the money, but only clearing out half their salary eliminates your ability to actually replace them.

I think it is time to move on from the core 4, but that doesn't mean that they will be able to do so in the summer of 2024 without making their team worse. There is a very real possibility that they have to chose between bringing all 4 back or getting a lackluster futures return that includes taking back a bad contract.

I think there is a pretty decent chance that the core 4 all start and end next season in Toronto.

 

[Brian39]

I don't doubt that Toronto would want to do that, there was speculation of it last season. If Army leaves, he's leaving for a situation like he's currently in, full control. Shanahan's contract has 1 year left, so it's not unreasonable that Toronto starts making moves this summer or next with a complete overhaul.

I can't recall, what's in the CBA about compensation for poaching another GM or coach? Is compensation for us letting Army go a thing?

There is no compensation and this rumor was pretty emphatically shut down last summer. JR wrote an entire article about it and the 32 Thoughts podcast discussed our unwillingness to give Army permission to talk to Toronto.

This is Leafs/media wish-casting and/or click-seeking as opposed to rumor backed by actual sources. We have no incentive to let our GM go to another organization just so we can explore the market for a replacement.

 

[Brian39]

If there is a scenario where Tavares leaves, I think that would be the best possible situation for us to get a 2nd line center who fills the role that we need. Strong defense, can score 60-70 points, plays on the pk, someone who can usher in Dvorsky and the kids while still competing. He has one more year left and after July 1st I think, he is owed like 900k or something close to league min. I don’t think the Leafs will be looking for much to offload him, but they’re going to be searching for defense, so there is a possibility you can move Krug or Faulk in that trade. I don’t know if they’d want to do something like this but maybe:

Blues get - Tavares (retained possibly)

Toronto gets - Faulk, Alexandrov, 2nd/3rd round pick

You might be able to get away with trading a 3rd instead of a 2nd, but Tavares is still a good player so I doubt you could get away with only trading someone like Faulk and Alexandrov. Idk it sort of makes sense in context

Tavares wouldn't even accept a pitch meeting from the Blues when he was a free agent in 2018. He turns 34 this year and has never made a deep playoff run. I don't see any reason that he would even consider waiving his NTC for the Blues.

Even if he did, there is also basically no chance that Faulk waives his NTC for Toronto. He's an American and was one of the few players who publicly criticized Canada's COVID protocols in 2021/22. He's played his entire career in the US in smaller markets and I can't imagine he has any desire to go to the absolute center of the Canadian hockey media.

We're not getting Tavares.

 

[bleedblue1223]

There is no compensation and this rumor was pretty emphatically shut down last summer. JR wrote an entire article about it and the 32 Thoughts podcast discussed our unwillingness to give Army permission to talk to Toronto.

This is Leafs/media wish-casting and/or click-seeking as opposed to rumor backed by actual sources. We have no incentive to let our GM go to another organization just so we can explore the market for a replacement.

Yes, I remember it was shot down, and agree, it wouldn't make sense for Stillman to allow Army to leave. I do think Toronto will start putting wheels in motion for a complete overhaul, and I would be curious what Stillman would do if Army approached him. Is their relationship close enough, to where Stillman would try and work something out, or would he tell him that he has a contract and needs to honor it? Do we have some sort of succession plan in place or has Army made it known to Stillman that he wants to essentially be David Poile and be here forever.

I could see any of those as being plausible, I'm not worried about Army leaving. I think it's much more likely that he stays here forever. It would probably take a move like Jersey did with Lou, where Stillman sort of forces him out by hiring a GM and keeping Army in a President role.

The thing with Toronto that will keep them around until Army gets another extension, they can offer all the money in the world, and the first President/GM that brings a Cup there through their plan, they will become royalty, and I think that has an allure to it.

 

[joe galiba]

We cannot win 1 OA. Only the bottom 11 can. Best we can do is 5 OA. We have a 1.1% chance if that.

Would be the most Blues thing to ever happen, win the lottery and only wind up with the 5OA pick

 

[bleedblue1223]

We cannot win 1 OA. Only the bottom 11 can. Best we can do is 5 OA. We have a 1.1% chance if that.

Actually 6th, so even if we win, we still can't get that top 5 pick.

 

[Majorityof1]

Actually 6th, so even if we win, we still can't get that top 5 pick.

Correct. Sorry, typo. You can move up a max of 10 spots. So. 11 can move to 1, 12 to 2, etc

 

[bleedblue1223]

Tavares wouldn't even accept a pitch meeting from the Blues when he was a free agent in 2018. He turns 34 this year and has never made a deep playoff run. I don't see any reason that he would even consider waiving his NTC for the Blues.

Even if he did, there is also basically no chance that Faulk waives his NTC for Toronto. He's an American and was one of the few players who publicly criticized Canada's COVID protocols in 2021/22. He's played his entire career in the US in smaller markets and I can't imagine he has any desire to go to the absolute center of the Canadian hockey media.

We're not getting Tavares.

Yeah. I don't see Tavares waiving a deal out of Toronto, and when he becomes a free agent again, I feel he'll be on a find me a Cup mission. Taking some sort of a discount to chase a Cup, and he'll have to do that as more of a secondary player.

 

[Brian39]

Yes, I remember it was shot down, and agree, it wouldn't make sense for Stillman to allow Army to leave. I do think Toronto will start putting wheels in motion for a complete overhaul, and I would be curious what Stillman would do if Army approached him. Is their relationship close enough, to where Stillman would try and work something out, or would he tell him that he has a contract and needs to honor it? Do we have some sort of succession plan in place or has Army made it known to Stillman that he wants to essentially be David Poile and be here forever.

I could see any of those as being plausible, I'm not worried about Army leaving. I think it's much more likely that he stays here forever. It would probably take a move like Jersey did with Lou, where Stillman sort of forces him out by hiring a GM and keeping Army in a President role.

The thing with Toronto that will keep them around until Army gets another extension, they can offer all the money in the world, and the first President/GM that brings a Cup there through their plan, they will become royalty, and I think that has an allure to it.

I don't know what there is to work out. We can't get compensation from Toronto for allowing him to leave and having to replace the head of our front office (and everyone who follows Army to Toronto) would dramatically hurt our organization. We don't have a mechanism to prevent all of 'his' people in our front office from following him to Toronto when their contracts expire. There are no roster/pick/monetary considerations that we could benefit from to let him go.

There isn't a middle ground to work out.

 

[BlueOil]

Toronto should be looking to make changes, but I won't be surprised if they wind up having to just run things back next year. Marner and Tavares hold all the power and can simply refuse to waive. Or they can waive for a very small handful of preferred destinations and prevent Toronto from getting anything of real value beyond cap space.

What does Toronto do if Tavares or Marner's list of teams is Colorado, Vegas, Dallas, Edmonton, the Rangers, Tampa, and Florida? That's a fairly substantial list of teams for a guy with a full NMC and it would be hard to paint him as unreasonably wielding his trade protection at that point. That's not quite every contender, but it is most of them (plus the Lightning who have a great organizational reputation and were recently contenders). Most those teams would struggle to make his cap work without massive retention and/or Toronto taking back bad money.

Would Toronto eat $5M-$7M in dead/awful money just to get a deal done? Does that really make them any better? Neither of those two was good enough, but it isn't like they were actively bad. They were bad for the money, but only clearing out half their salary eliminates your ability to actually replace them.

I think it is time to move on from the core 4, but that doesn't mean that they will be able to do so in the summer of 2024 without making their team worse. There is a very real possibility that they have to chose between bringing all 4 back or getting a lackluster futures return that includes taking back a bad contract.

I think there is a pretty decent chance that the core 4 all start and end next season in Toronto.

i understand why everyone wants them to blow it up, but i bet they end up letting bertuzzi walk, signing a defenseman (treliving's specialty), and trying to add another goalie. it's pretty much gonna look the same until tavares falls off their books

 

[Xerloris]

I hope Edmonton loses because while I have nothing against McDavid, I absolutely want Edmonton to be the team that wasted and ruined his career.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

I can't imagine a scenario where our organization gives another team to talk to our GM and President of Hockey Operations.

I agree, but go back to the entire point of my post: if I'm Toronto, I ask for permission.

I also can't see Army being interested in a position that gives him less power/autonomy than he currently has

Go back to my post and read

.. ask him "how much money and how much power do you want to come here" and give him what he wants.

Because that would give him at least the same power. Whether he gets less autonomy is a different question, but if you're going so far as to shell out money for him to have the position I don't think you're imposing ... but you have to run every single thing you want to do by us because that defeats the entire "how much power do you want to come here" part of the offer.

so this hypothetical would rely on Brendan Shanahan being fired and Toronto ownership being okay with 1 guy doing a job that they have currently split between 2 people.

I think Shanahan should be fired. Will he be? My gut says no, but I don't know how he survives after an 8th year of failure under his grand plan, after he shitcanned the GM who allegedly wanted to blow up the core. Which, again, goes back to what I would do if I'm Keith Pelley making decisions this offseason.

And if Toronto is serious about winning the Cup, having 1 guy do 2 positions is barely a concern if you think he's the guy that can lead you to the Cup. It's sure as hell not a financial concern.

I'd be absolutely shocked if Toronto blows up their entire front office AND our ownership lets Army out of his contract.

I won't be shocked if Toronto blows up the front office in part. I think there's a better chance of that than ownership letting Armstrong out of his contract, but if Doug wants to leave does it really do any good to point to that contract and say "nope, you're serving it out?"

The worst that happens is Stillman says "no." The 2nd worst that happens is Doug says "no." Might any of it happen? No, maybe (probably) not. But, you don't know if you never ask. Toronto may as well ask, settling for the 15th best candidate without reaching out to the first 14 because their team might say no is not how you achieve excellence and a championship.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

We can't get compensation from Toronto for allowing him to leave

I'm going to pick on this, too.

There's no requirement for compensation. Nothing says Toronto can't offer it freely.

 

[Brian39]

I'm going to pick on this, too.

There's no requirement for compensation. Nothing says Toronto can't offer it freely.

It is not allowed.

 

[Blueston]

I agree, but go back to the entire point of my post: if I'm Toronto, I ask for permission.


Go back to my post and read

Because that would give him at least the same power. Whether he gets less autonomy is a different question, but if you're going so far as to shell out money for him to have the position I don't think you're imposing ... but you have to run every single thing you want to do by us because that defeats the entire "how much power do you want to come here" part of the offer.


I think Shanahan should be fired. Will he be? My gut says no, but I don't know how he survives after an 8th year of failure under his grand plan, after he shitcanned the GM who allegedly wanted to blow up the core. Which, again, goes back to what I would do if I'm Keith Pelley making decisions this offseason.

And if Toronto is serious about winning the Cup, having 1 guy do 2 positions is barely a concern if you think he's the guy that can lead you to the Cup. It's sure as hell not a financial concern.


I won't be shocked if Toronto blows up the front office in part. I think there's a better chance of that than ownership letting Armstrong out of his contract, but if Doug wants to leave does it really do any good to point to that contract and say "nope, you're serving it out?"

The worst that happens is Stillman says "no." The 2nd worst that happens is Doug says "no." Might any of it happen? No, maybe (probably) not. But, you don't know if you never ask. Toronto may as well ask, settling for the 15th best candidate without reaching out to the first 14 because their team might say no is not how you achieve excellence and a championship.

i don't see leafs as option for army this summer. toronto hired treliving last year. they may well fire shanny, but the gm too? seems like axing tree after 1 year would be kind of thing that would scare off guys like army. why would he possibly want to leave great place where he has such strong relationship with his boss to step into that?