Around the NHL 2013-2014 Part IV: Offseason Edition

[joe89]

That sounds like the Blues offered $2.4m, Sobotka countered for $3m, and the Blues raised their offer t o $2.7m. Or am I reading it wrong? that looks like it's more on Sobotka for not being willing to come down than anything else.

It might have been $300k over the NHL contract, but he got $4M with term to play in the KHL. So he was willing to give up a million to stay in the NHL(albeit short deal so he could hit UFA).

Btw Sobotka for $3M would've actually been a very solid deal, certainly better than losing him anyway.

 

[Winger98]

It might have been $300k over the NHL contract, but he got $4M with term to play in the KHL. So he was willing to give up a million to stay in the NHL(albeit short deal so he could hit UFA).

Btw Sobotka for $3M would've actually been a very solid deal, certainly better than losing him anyway.

I don't blame him in the least leaving to earn significantly more in Russia. Just from the way the article was written, it seems more like he was unwilling to budge. So, when they say they were only $300k apart it seems like it was more on his end.

On the Blues end, they have to be looking at Stastny, Backes, Berglund, and Ott as centers already on the roster, and they still have to sign Schwartz. I'm not sure St. Louis would be able to fit Schwartz if the they gave Sobotka $3m. I think they could have had a hard time at $2.7m.

I get Sobotka leaving, and I get why St. Louis wouldn't up their offer. The "it's only $300k" bit seems a bit off the mark and simplified, though.

 

[InjuredChoker]

 

[TeemuS]

just saw it on my FB lol

 

[joe89]

I don't blame him in the least leaving to earn significantly more in Russia. Just from the way the article was written, it seems more like he was unwilling to budge. So, when they say they were only $300k apart it seems like it was more on his end.

On the Blues end, they have to be looking at Stastny, Backes, Berglund, and Ott as centers already on the roster, and they still have to sign Schwartz. I'm not sure St. Louis would be able to fit Schwartz if the they gave Sobotka $3m. I think they could have had a hard time at $2.7m.

I get Sobotka leaving, and I get why St. Louis wouldn't up their offer. The "it's only $300k" bit seems a bit off the mark and simplified, though.

I guess that difference was a big deal in the end. They didn't hesitate to sign Ott for $2.6M right after they lost Sobotka, which fits that type of budget. But while they were trying to save in there on that 3C spot, they went out and signed an unknown NHL commodity in Lehtera for $2.75M, who was a RFA no less. While there's no reason to doubt his abilities, rarely do NHL teams appease guys with that type of money to come over. So you can certainly ask yourself if they could've done things differently, and if they had their priorities straight.

 

[Run the Jewels]

http://prohockeytalk.nbcsports.com/...ween-sobotka-and-blues-was-300000-says-agent/

He's pretty much their Darren Helm although he doesn't put in the PK time that Helmer does. With the cap going up he could be worth $3 million but you can find a good 3C for less money. Plus they are probably grooming Fabbri for that spot, they are very high on him and after one more year in Guelph he could make the big club.

 

[WingedWheel1987]

The Blues took advantage of Sobotka. One day short of FA and they basically play hard ball with him. They gambled and will be a worse team next season. Not a good move for a team in the Western Conference.

 

[JmanWingsFan]

He's pretty much their Darren Helm although he doesn't put in the PK time that Helmer does. With the cap going up he could be worth $3 million but you can find a good 3C for less money. Plus they are probably grooming Fabbri for that spot, they are very high on him and after one more year in Guelph he could make the big club.

Pretty much their Darren Helm? Our Darren Helm is pretty much their Vladimir Sabotka. The dude is incredibly underrated because he doesn't put up points. Sabotka>>>>>>>>>>>>>Helm.

 

[Frk It]

I know this is a touchy subject, but thought this was worth sharing.

“Sometimes you can also get paralyzed with statistics in reading players,” Lamoriello said. “I saw something recently I thought was really interesting, but I probably would have lost my job if I had done a couple of things they said.”

“We’ve been talking about it, but I wouldn’t say it’s a big factor in any of our decision making,” Holland said. “Let’s say you’re Pavel Datsyuk’s linemate. You move to another team and not playing with Pavel Datsyuk is going to have an effect on your lack of success. With baseball, it’s more black and white because the pitcher is on the mound and he’s going against the batter. But in hockey, you’ve got four teammates and five opponents who are going to have some impact on what’s going to happen.”

Also last paragraph of the article is pretty cool, in my opinion.

http://www.thehockeynews.com/blog/are-nhl-teams-warming-up-to-advanced-stats-like-corsi-and-fenwick/

 

[Run the Jewels]

I know this is a touchy subject, but thought this was worth sharing.





Also last paragraph of the article is pretty cool, in my opinion.

http://www.thehockeynews.com/blog/are-nhl-teams-warming-up-to-advanced-stats-like-corsi-and-fenwick/

Good find, thanks for posting. I had to wince at the Datsyuk reference seeing as how Abdelkader has been on his line the past few seasons. I remember Shane Doan absolutely roasting Abby for his total lack of production playing on a line with #13. Does that one count as the eye test or the stat test? Obviously both.

Everyone knows the hits stat is a total joke and I don't know any serious stat like Corsi or Fenwick that uses that "crap" data. Oh, and I loved this part:

It should be noted that for two years the league didn’t make public its hits, ice time and giveaway/takeaway stats because it was concerned they would be used in arbitration. The NHLPA filed a grievance and won.

Don't ever change Gary Bettman.

 

[InjuredChoker]

i will always remember the doan chirp. it was one of the best.

 

[InjuredChoker]

10 of the most memorable NHL moments from the 90s

 

[SoupNazi]

I know this is a touchy subject, but thought this was worth sharing.
...
Also last paragraph of the article is pretty cool, in my opinion.

http://www.thehockeynews.com/blog/are-nhl-teams-warming-up-to-advanced-stats-like-corsi-and-fenwick/

Interesting read, Frk, and thanks for posting.

but he wonders whether analytics will ever be as prominent in hockey as they are in baseball. He still doesn’t trust all the numbers he sees.

To be honest, I don't think they ever will. As Holland says, there's just too many people on the ice influencing the play for stats (other than a few like goals, assists, and save percentage, for example) to ever give you a great read, particularly when you look at them on a piece of paper without any context. Though I believe they have their place, I'm not sure they'll ever be used to the same level they are in baseball; in fact, I'd bet against it.

 

[Bench]

Hockey is too fluid and organic to be isolated into singular statistics of any significance. At the best you might find some stats that show winning teams have X stat, but correlation doesn't equal causation necessarily.

It's really easy to create graphs that show correlation. I see them all the time posted to this forum, and often accepted without scrutiny. Of course, by that same token, we should also start worrying about organic foods.

 

[InjuredChoker]

Darren Dreger ‏@DarrenDreger 7 min
Paul Ranger has agreed to a 2 year deal to play in Geneva, Switzerland.

Rob Rossi ‏@RobRossi_Trib 7 min
Per #pens >> NO surgery for Crosby. @JoshYohe_Trib reported last week procedure was only a consideration on injured wrist.

Nashville Predators ‏@PredsNHL 2 min
BREAKING NEWS: @PredsNHL sign forward Mike Ribiero to a one-year contract.

Dan Rosen ‏@drosennhl 5 min
Preds also announce the signing of Derek Roy to a 1-yr, $1 million contract. They're paying Jokinen, Ribeiro and Roy $4.55 million combined.

 

[Frk It]

Sounds like Jarnkrok is bound for the AHL.

Let's see if those Sweden or NHL rumors are true

 

[JmanWingsFan]

Here's another interesting quote sadly left out from the cherry-picked quotes to make FancyStats look bad:

But there’s no doubt analytics are becoming a bigger part of the negotiation process for players, as evidenced by one agent’s dealings last year. He was negotiating with the team and it was pointed out to him the player had one of the worst plus-minus figures among forwards on that team. The agent pointed out that, for whatever reason, the goaltender had a worse save percentage when that player was on the ice than he did any other player on the team, which contributed to the bad plus-minus. The player signed a one-year deal this season and his plus-minus improved

http://www.thehockeynews.com/blog/are-nhl-teams-warming-up-to-advanced-stats-like-corsi-and-fenwick/

You mean to tell me that it's possible Dmen can be influenced by poor goaltending performances and be made to look worse or better than they actually are based on goaltending? Huh...

One of the biggest strawmen in the whole fancystats debate is how Corsi and Fenwick do not come with context. That is a bunch of crock. A whole lot of crock. It's a logical fallacy through-and-through. No sane user of Corsi/Fenwick uses the stats without context. To name some examples, we use WOWYs (With or Without you, to remove bias from playing with a player that makes you look better) and Zone Entry Data.

I know I like to use CorsiF% a lot. But I find it a nice starting reference point, kind of like OPS in Baseball. It saves time.

 

[SoupNazi]

One of the biggest strawmen in the whole fancystats debate is how Corsi and Fenwick do not come with context. That is a bunch of crock. A whole lot of crock. It's a logical fallacy through-and-through. No sane user of Corsi/Fenwick uses the stats without context.

Yet, amazingly, I see them used without context all the time by people who have never watched the players in favor of whom they're arguing.

 

[Frk It]

Cherry picked quotes to make fancy stats look bad?

Nah I quoted the only two quotes that were actually from NHL General Managers in that article.

Sorry they don't like fancy stats as much as you. And don't base their decisions solely on them.

 

[JmanWingsFan]

Yet, amazingly, I see them used without context all the time by people who have never watched the players in favor of whom they're arguing.

This logic is so terrible

 

[SoupNazi]

This logic is so terrible :facepalm

No, it really isn't, because I see it done all the time. People argue for defensemen or forwards they have never bothered to watch because they have pretty "fancystats."

 

[JmanWingsFan]

Cherry picked quotes to make fancy stats look bad?

Nah I quoted the only two quotes that were actually from NHL General Managers in that article.

Sorry they don't like fancy stats as much as you. And don't base their decisions solely on them.

They were cherry-picked. If you noticed, the quote I brought up was also from an important person inside the Hockey business- a player agent. And his reasoning actually turned out to be spot on and his player actually had improved numbers.

 

[Frk It]

They were cherry-picked. If you noticed, the quote I brought up was also from an important person inside the Hockey business- a player agent. And his reasoning actually turned out to be spot on and his player actually had improved numbers.

Dude. I said in my first post that the last paragraph was cool how he did that.

Also GM's are actually the ones that make the decisions. They kinda trump agents.

 

[SoupNazi]

They were cherry-picked. If you noticed, the quote I brought up was also from an important person inside the Hockey business- a player agent. And his reasoning actually turned out to be spot on and his player actually had improved numbers.

As far as team building goes, GMs are leaps and bounds more important than player agents. That's not even a close competition.

 

[JmanWingsFan]

Dude. I said in my first post that the last paragraph was cool how he did that.

Also GM's are actually the ones that make the decisions. They kinda trump agents.

As far as team building goes, GMs are leaps and bounds more important than player agents. That's not even a close competition.

You guys are missing the point completely. You aren't worth the hassle of discussing this.