Around the League 3 - The Threequel Always Sucks

[What the Faulk]

There has never been an indication, until last Summer when we revealed that we had entertained the idea of trading him at negative value, that Cam was ever on a short leash here with the front office. I was mainly speaking to fan sentiment that seems to pervade over logic at times. I don't think it's intellectually dishonest to say that there have been at least 3 guys that fans openly endorsed over Cam and to hell with Cam. I think we can all be dramatic at times when games aren't going the way we want, but I do remember around the time of Dan Ellis that people were mocking lineups with him as the starter and allocating Ward's money elsewhere because they were frustrated with his play and were basically "done" with him. I know the same thing happened with Khudobin as well.

It's easy when we know the fate of Ellis, Peters, Legace, Leighton (some people freaked on his early success in Philadelphia), etc. to say that those guys were never in the frame. But with a modicum of effort that I don't have right now, I could probably find a few dozen posts in favor of each of them from different posters *here*, which is a far cry from Facebook. Some of them probably from me.

The backup is the most popular guy in town. Because he represents a fresh start. We've had a torrid love affair with every new one we've gotten that didn't entirely bomb in Jamie Storr or John Grahame fashion. I suppose with the Hurricanes line of succession with goaltenders usually being guys that come from the backup position into the starting role it's only natural for us to suspect it might happen again.

Well, fan perspective is a bit of a different animal entirely. I mean, I'm sure you can find just about any opinion under the sun if you look hard enough.

But in terms of organization direction, I think Lack is the first guy that was brought in by management where the thought is that he might actually be the next guy. He's played 82 games over the last two seasons, so borderline starter workload, even if some of that was due to injury. And he's fared pretty well. He'll also only be 28 in January, so if he has a strong season, he could definitely be the guy to wrestle away a starter job from Ward for the next 3-4 seasons.

 

[Sens1Canes2]

As I read their posts, I thought it was in reference to a portion of our fan base not the organ-i-zation. There absolutely was a vocal, small contingent who would embrace whoever the backup of the moment was for Cam. Of course none of those recycled guys had a shot to supplant a healthy Ward but that doesn't negate the naivete and wishful thinking on the part of some of those fans.

I specifically remember a game when Leighton played well, and on my drive home every single caller wanted Ward out and Leighton in. Now, I know it's the Aftermath...but they're still fans. And, they've bought more tickets than I have for Canes games so their opinions are just as valid.

 

[Sens1Canes2]

Well, fan perspective is a bit of a different animal entirely. I mean, I'm sure you can find just about any opinion under the sun if you look hard enough.

But in terms of organization direction, I think Lack is the first guy that was brought in by management where the thought is that he might actually be the next guy. He's played 82 games over the last two seasons, so borderline starter workload, even if some of that was due to injury. And he's fared pretty well. He'll also only be 28 in January, so if he has a strong season, he could definitely be the guy to wrestle away a starter job from Ward for the next 3-4 seasons.

You don't think Khudobin was brought in to *maybe* take the job from Ward?

 

[What the Faulk]

You don't think Khudobin was brought in to *maybe* take the job from Ward?

The only goaltender brought in to compete with Ward was Khudobin. Maybe. Everyone else was clearly a backup.

Maybe, but probably not. He was a 27 year old with 21 career games who signed for one year, 800k. This is what JR had to say:

“Anton proved to be a very capable NHL backup for the Bruins last year,†said Rutherford. “This solidifies an elite goaltending tandem for the Hurricanes.â€

The extension is a different story.

 

[Sens1Canes2]

Maybe, but probably not. He was a 27 year old with 21 career games who signed for one year, 800k. This is what JR had to say:



The extension is a different story.

Good point.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

C'mon guys. Other than maybe Khudobin (who did far outperform Ward in 1 of the 2 seasons he was here and the Coach himself said he'd be battling for the starter spot), there have been no "next ones" crowned in ~10 years by fans or the Canes management. Every guy the Canes have brought in have been brought it in an attempt to simply be a capable back-up that could handle 15-20 games without ******** the bed so Ward wouldn't get worn out. There was no tide of people wanting Peters as a starter, in fact very few, if any wanted that as we all knew what he was, and wasn't capable of.

Ellis and Legace? C'mon BLB, you don't actually believe that do you? (particularly since, as Dave mentioned Legace wasn't even signed until mid season due to a rash of injuries).

For the better part of 10 years, the Canes have hooked their wagon to Cam Ward, and for the most part, only Cam Ward. I'm not saying that was a bad thing, but let's not act like the team, or Fans have been anointing his heir apparent for years, because it's simply not the case.

I was referring to the fan mentality of "Shiny new backup is the new starter" and there was absolutely a contingent of fans (even on this board) that declared we should trade Ward and make Ellis the starter. If you'd like, I could provide the links. Judging by the posts in those threads, the same thing happened with Leighton as well. I was mis-remembering Legace, however.

 

[StormCast]

I specifically remember a game when Leighton played well, and on my drive home every single caller wanted Ward out and Leighton in. Now, I know it's the Aftermath...but they're still fans. And, they've bought more tickets than I have for Canes games so their opinions are just as valid.

I remember it too and similar sentiments about Ellis. I just love Aftermath for those calls. Like an audio train wreck.

 

[Joe McGrath]

Didn't we have a "Dan Ellis for starter" thread here at one point. Then Cam got hurt and we found out, yes Dan Ellis still sucks?

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Didn't we have a "Dan Ellis for starter" thread here at one point. Then Cam got hurt and we found out, yes Dan Ellis still sucks?

We had two, in fact. And we also had one about how Ellis needed to start the first game of the season, so it was happening before any injury to Ward.

 

[NotOpie]

Eddie Lack will get an extension by the end of the season in the 4.5m range, and Ward will test the market, but come back and sign a short 2.5m deal.

That's my guess.

Very similar to my contention...except I don't automatically crown Eddie. But if he does outplay Ward AND he sees a relatively quick path to the playoffs (whcih I believe is important to him), then Eddie Lack will likely get a contract in the 3-5 year range paying $11-$21 million, more money per year for shorter term. If he's lights out I could see the Canes pushing for longer term at a little less money per year....but I don't think you'll see a Canes starting goaltender signed for more than 4 or 5 years for a very long time.

If Eddie get's that kind of money, Cam won't be back because he will be able to get near starter money elsewhere.

 

[HoneyBrownTown]

Goaltending

I don't post often, but this thread for the last few pages has been fairly interesting. I hope the points I put down add value:

1) I don't know who it was, and won't spend time finding it on the web, but someone compared Khudobin to the next Rask towards the end of his time in Boston. If my memory serves me correct, which it often doesn't, the same thing was said when the Canes got him. That doesn't illicitly say Canes next starter, but I read that as the implication. I am not referring to a post on this board, FWIW.

2) I totally agree with the poster that was talking about goal support. I feel like the ****** seasons we've endured as fans lately are more a direct result of awful and streaky offense than of poor goaltending.

3) Advanced stats are pretty indicative of how well a team is or isn't doing. As far as the Canes and goaltending go, though they allowed fewer shots over the last few years, they allowed more quality shots. There was a study done on this league wide recently, and the Canes have been pretty awful at allowing fewer quality shots.

4) Several years ago, goaltending was arguably the number 1 reason a team made the playoffs. Back in the 80's and 90's that was nowhere near the case, it was all offense. Now, the trend is a strong D along with some of the advanced stats. Chicago, LA, and Anaheim are all shining examples. Crawford would probably fare about the same on the Canes as Ward. Quick may do a little better. And I feel like Anaheim has switched with the Canes three or 4 times? Gerber, Khudobin, Ellis, more? I wouldn't point at goaltending as our problem. I would point at D. The initial excitement of Wiz has worn off, and I look at our current D roster and have a ton of questions. I look at our D roster in a few seasons, and I hope the trend is still towards great D's winning hockey games and championships.

Thanks for allowing me to post. Sorry if I offered no value!

 

[RodTheBawd]

4) Several years ago, goaltending was arguably the number 1 reason a team made the playoffs. Back in the 80's and 90's that was nowhere near the case, it was all offense. Now, the trend is a strong D along with some of the advanced stats. Chicago, LA, and Anaheim are all shining examples. Crawford would probably fare about the same on the Canes as Ward. Quick may do a little better. And I feel like Anaheim has switched with the Canes three or 4 times? Gerber, Khudobin, Ellis, more? I wouldn't point at goaltending as our problem. I would point at D. The initial excitement of Wiz has worn off, and I look at our current D roster and have a ton of questions. I look at our D roster in a few seasons, and I hope the trend is still towards great D's winning hockey games and championships.

I take that as you're implying Quick is only slightly better than Ward? Or that nearly any goaltender would fair as well as or slightly better than Ward in a Carolina net?

 

[HoneyBrownTown]

Actually, I think both Quick and Crawford might fare a little better than Ward. I really don't know. Looking at advanced stats, it goes: Crawford, Quick, Ward in in terms of who was tops of those three.

Crawford was on the 3rd best defensive team in the league. Quick on the 7th best. Canes were somewhere in the 20's.

There are goalies out there that could make a significant impact on the Canes, but I'd be surprised if they made near the impact that a stellar D would.

 

[What the Faulk]

3) Advanced stats are pretty indicative of how well a team is or isn't doing. As far as the Canes and goaltending go, though they allowed fewer shots over the last few years, they allowed more quality shots. There was a study done on this league wide recently, and the Canes have been pretty awful at allowing fewer quality shots.

Do you happen to have the link to that? What I'm seeing on War on Ice is that both shots and scoring chances are down:

This is how they stacked up against the rest of the league in 2014-2015. In pure shots against, they actually fared very well. Same with shot attempts. In terms of scoring chances, not as good, but still clustered somewhere around the middle.

This is them compared against themselves. The y-axis is scoring chances and the shade is shots on goal. Both are at post-lockout lows.

I don't suddenly think the defense became world beaters (more to do with defensive responsibility from the forwards/Peters' system/okay, a little above average play from most defenders), but it does explain the bump in Ward's numbers a little.

 

[The Stranger]

Quick is very good at tracking the puck through traffic and he's also a very athletic goalie. It would make sense that these skills would help bail out a poor defensive team that allows lots of net-front presence, cross-ice puck movement, and high quality scoring chances in general.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

I take that as you're implying Quick is only slightly better than Ward? Or that nearly any goaltender would fair as well as or slightly better than Ward in a Carolina net?

I'd assume the latter, and that's not exactly wrong. Much of goaltending nowadays is helped greatly by the team in front of them. Put Ward with Doughty and LA's defense in front of him and put Quick with Faulk and Carolina's defense in front of him and you'll probably see a shift in their respective GAA and SV%.

To use a segment from Quick himself:

http://www.theplayerstribune.com/jonathan-quick-kings-snipers/

In the NHL, 90 percent of the save happens before the player shoots the puck. As a goalie, if you’re relying on your reaction time to make saves, you’re going to get yanked in a hurry. Keeping pucks out of the net is mostly about intuition and geometry. You’re watching the puck carrier and processing all of the guy’s options on the ice, plus you’re looking at his feet, hands and body positioning. Is he shooting? High or low? Where’s his passing lane? What’s the play here?

All the variables add up and tell you everything you need to make a decision. Instantly, your brain tells you to push out to the top of the crease and make yourself “big†to close down the angle on the shooter, or to cheat your weight a little bit to push off and cover the pass. Before the shot even comes, most of your work is done. You’ve committed and you just hope you’ve made the right decision.

A good defense will severely limit the options the shooter has on the ice, therefore making the odds that the goaltender made the right decision much higher. From the same article:

The thing is, that save has very little to do with my hand-eye coordination. Actually, the first part of it has nothing to do with me, period. If my defenseman Drew Doughty doesn’t go down and smartly take away the cross-crease pass here, I’m dead in the water. You can tell that Kane wanted to pass, because his eyes and hips are facing away from the net at first. Thankfully, Drew had my back.

Now that's not to say goaltending only depends on the team in front of him. Obviously, players like Lundqvist and Price would likely find success where ever you stick them, and Ward would likely not be nearly as successful as those two if a switch was made. But for a good portion of the goaltenders, the team in front of them has a major effect on their respective stats.

 

[tarheelhockey]

“Anton proved to be a very capable NHL backup for the Bruins last year,” said Rutherford. “This solidifies an elite goaltending tandem for the Hurricanes.”

Reading that in hindsight makes me a little ill.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

I'm not sure what shots allowed has to do with it. If a goaltender is giving up just slightly more than 2 goals a game, I'd hardly call him terrible, regardless of how many shots he's facing. Assuming he's got a competent offense in front of him, only allowing about 2 goals per game should give him a decent amount of wins.

You can't pick and choose which contextual piece of evidence to allow. Yes, Ward played behind the worst offense the Hurricanes have iced since the early 2000's: but he also played behind the best defense in half-a-decade.

He allowed decent GAA; but his Sv% was incredibly under par for a starter, which is why mentioned shot total is important. Similar to how James Reimer led the Leafs into the playoffs a few years back: he had decent GAA, but the Leafs allowed 30+ shots per game, and Reimer had a ridiculously unsustainable Sv% to compensate.

Context matters in this situation: because the Hurricanes are going to have one of Liles, Hainsey or Hanifin on their top defensive pair 100% of the time this season, when healthy. The shot total could go back to what we have seen for the past 4 years, in which case, Ward's Sv%, if consistent with this year, or even the last several years, means his GAA is going to go up. You can't just say "He had a good GAA!!!" while ignoring context.

As for the Staal vs. Ward, if this was a reoccurring disappearing act, as it has been for Staal, I would be just as critical of Ward. But since his October this year seemed to be a bad month, coinciding with the rest of the team playing like ass as well, I'm more willing to call it what it likely was. But I also appreciate irony, and I can see where I'd be hypocritical if Ward performed as poorly as you believe he did in the first 3 months and I didn't call him out on it.

The fact that Staal was consistent about his disappearing act was never the main part of your argument against him: rather it was the fact that his late starts would sink the team. Similar to Ward and Khudobin's poor play sinking the team in a winless (holy **** I hate this word) October.

I just think it's humorous that Ward essentially pulled an Eric Staal this season, but you are willing to excuse that. If you want to place the line in the sand at "consistently inconsistent", fine, but that seems haphazard to me.

 

[Quacktastic]

I totally agree with the poster that was talking about goal support. I feel like the ****** seasons we've endured as fans lately are more a direct result of awful and streaky offense than of poor goaltending.

Good post, and I would agree to this with a caveat.

From merely watching the games it would seem that consistency in every area is our general issue. This seems to be something BP is intent on fixing so I remain generally optimistic. Some games the offense will not perform to the level it's capable of, sometimes it's the defense, and other times it's the goalie. When all 3 play well we're usually able to win, unless luck just wasn't with us in that game. However it would seem that more often than not at least one of the above groups had an off game which would lead us to a loss unless the other two groups were playing outstanding, which is unpredictable because again - inconsistency. And on top of all of that, the highest level our team can even play at since the cup has not been great considering the overall skill on our roster most years.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I was referring to the fan mentality of "Shiny new backup is the new starter" and there was absolutely a contingent of fans (even on this board) that declared we should trade Ward and make Ellis the starter. If you'd like, I could provide the links. Judging by the posts in those threads, the same thing happened with Leighton as well. I was mis-remembering Legace, however.

BLB, those were started by a known troll (ontariofisherman) and were a reaction to Cam playing poorly (which he was). Heck, even Vagrant was saying in those threads that Ellis should play until Cam starts playing like a starter again.

Let's not confuse game - game "over"-reaction after a bad stretch and known troll postings, with a fan base wanting to replace Ward all together.

 

[Sens1Canes2]

BLB, those were started by a known troll (ontariofisherman) and were a reaction to Cam playing poorly (which he was). Heck, even Vagrant was saying in those threads that Ellis should play until Cam starts playing like a starter again.

Let's not confuse game - game "over"-reaction after a bad stretch and known troll postings, with a fan base wanting to replace Ward all together.

I don't miss those troll accounts.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

You can't pick and choose which contextual piece of evidence to allow. Yes, Ward played behind the worst offense the Hurricanes have iced since the early 2000's: but he also played behind the best defense in half-a-decade.

He allowed decent GAA; but his Sv% was incredibly under par for a starter, which is why mentioned shot total is important. Similar to how James Reimer led the Leafs into the playoffs a few years back: he had decent GAA, but the Leafs allowed 30+ shots per game, and Reimer had a ridiculously unsustainable Sv% to compensate.

Context matters in this situation: because the Hurricanes are going to have one of Liles, Hainsey or Hanifin on their top defensive pair 100% of the time this season, when healthy. The shot total could go back to what we have seen for the past 4 years, in which case, Ward's Sv%, if consistent with this year, or even the last several years, means his GAA is going to go up. You can't just say "He had a good GAA!!!" while ignoring context.

Except his GAA and SV% were average or above average in November and December, so your contention that he was "terrible" for the first three months still doesn't hold any water.

He had a pisspoor October. No one's going to deny that. But it seems like a lot of people are letting those 4 games have way too much influence on their perception of him, as if he didn't play 47 games after that month.

BLB, those were started by a known troll (ontariofisherman) and were a reaction to Cam playing poorly (which he was). Heck, even Vagrant was saying in those threads that Ellis should play until Cam starts playing like a starter again.

Let's not confuse game - game "over"-reaction after a bad stretch and known troll postings, with a fan base wanting to replace Ward all together.

He created just two of the topics. There were other topics created by other people, and various posts from other people that held the same mentality. I've lost the links at the moment and don't really care enough to go digging for them again, so I'll just leave it at that.

If the fanbase didn't have a history of "shiny new toy syndrome", then it wouldn't be treated as such. But as has been pointed out, there have been at least 4 backups now that were/are going to "take the starter's job away from Ward": Leighton, Ellis, Khudobin and now Lack.

I love the Lack trade, especially with how cheaply he came compared to some of the other goalie deals in the same time frame. And if he wins the starting job, I'll cheer for him the same way I do for Ward. But declaring him the starter now, or saying we don't need Ward because we have Lack, is just letting history repeat itself and shows a surprising lack of knowledge about how difficult it really is to find a starting goaltender in the NHL.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

2) I totally agree with the poster that was talking about goal support. I feel like the ****** seasons we've endured as fans lately are more a direct result of awful and streaky offense than of poor goaltending.

I think it's a combination of both, and IMO, it's because the team has no depth. They aren't deep enough to handle any adversity (Skinner concussion, Pitkanen injury, Jordan Staal injury, soft goal being given up, bad call, etc...). The team can't put it together where they have decent offense, decent defense, decent special teams and decent goaltending all at once.

12/13: Good offense, poor defense, poor special teams, poor goaltending.
13/14: Poor offense, poor defense, poor special teams, ok goaltending (Khudobin).
14/15: Poor offense, good defense, good special teams, poor goaltending.

They all go hand in hand. People talk about the effect of no goal support on a goalie, and it's fair to consider that, but the reverse is also true. I remember a fair share of games where the Canes goalies (Ward included) gave up a weak goal or two at a bad time. For a team that struggles to score, that is demoralizing and difficult to recover from.

 

[What the Faulk]

^^ I can't even

 

[Sens1Canes2]

Would someone make a list of the goalies who were available thru FA/made available thru trade this summer, so we can argue for/against that keeping Ward is better than taking a flyer on one of those?