Speculation: Armchair GM Thread II: What did the goalie say to the puck?

[Deen]

I don’t think Hanifin will ever be the true #1 that he was pegged to be when he was drafted, but his value is sky high right now because of his contract and potential. I could see the logic in trading him for help up front in terms of a similar aged forward (Horvat for example), but AS is right that it wouldn’t send the right message to the group. That’s an off-season move (if Tre even sees it as necessary). And you never know, he’s only just turned 22.

It’ll be really interesting to see the direction Treliving takes with our youthful d. It’s the best young d corp in the league in my homerish opinion, no way we keep all of them if they all continue to flourish.

Tre might actually be the most valuable part of our organizatiom if he isn't signing free agents.

 

[MonyontheMoney]

I just don’t see much point in moving any of Hanifin, Valimaki, Andersson or Kylington at this point.

We’re going to need a Giordano replacement in the next few years, I think we’d be better off to let them play it out and see which one (if any) that will be.

Like, I don’t see us needing much help up front. I’d say Stone is more of a luxury for sure, and if you can’t get him without moving any of those guys, I’d pass and move on to more realistic targets like Zuccarello, who you won’t have to give up any of them to get.

 

[Dertell]

If Hanifin is the Giordano replacement it'll be time to tank

 

[super6646]

Yes, trade hanifin, and when you realize neither kylington or valimaki project as #1dmen, then panic. Hanifin definitely has flaws, buts he's miles ahead of any of our other other young dmen. When kylington or valimaki can play more than 13 minutes a night without struggling, then we can talk about trading hanifin.

Seriously, considering he and hamonic get the most dzone starts of our dmen and still have positive possession is pretty good (also, hanifin is on pace for 40 pts, with the vast majority at even-strength). Kylington and andersson (and valimaki) barely hold their heads above water when they are sheltered and play easier competition (though they have been trending the right way). But yes, hanifin made a few mistakes so let's trade him now.

 

[Dack]

Yes, trade hanifin, and when you realize neither kylington or valimaki project as #1dmen, then panic. Hanifin definitely has flaws, buts he's miles ahead of any of our other other young dmen. When kylington or valimaki can play more than 13 minutes a night without struggling, then we can talk about trading hanifin.

Seriously, considering he and hamonic get the most dzone starts of our dmen and still have positive possession is pretty good (also, hanifin is on pace for 40 pts, with the vast majority at even-strength). Kylington and andersson (and valimaki) barely hold their heads above water when they are sheltered and play easier competition (though they have been trending the right way). But yes, hanifin made a few mistakes so let's trade him now.

Hanafins possession numbers when not with Hamonic are abysmal, playing with Andersson he doesn't do any better than Kylington does.

Plus

QoT >>QoC

 

[DCDM]

Hanifin has gaps in his game? Man, if only he were 22 with lots of time left in his career to work on his flaws.

 

[Volica]

Hanafins possession numbers when not with Hamonic are abysmal, playing with Andersson he doesn't do any better than Kylington does.

Plus

QoT >>QoC

Wait. So Hanifin >> Giordano?
Because he spends more time starting the game in the defensive end, and has lower QoT?

I think this is beaten to death. Hanifin has played better, significantly, than any of our other young D. He's trusted, gives you 20+ HARD minutes a night, produces, and is a positive possession player.

You could dislike him, but the dude's a stud. He's been fantastic; he's playing big tough minutes, he's getting hammered on zone starts, he's on pace for 40 points, he's been one of our best PKers (better than Hamonic, IMO) and the guy's all of 4 months older than Kylington and 2 months younger than Andersson.

Guy's an ex top pick, and he's one for a reason.

 

[Lunatik]

Hanafins possession numbers when not with Hamonic are abysmal, playing with Andersson he doesn't do any better than Kylington does.

Plus

QoT >>QoC

Let's pretend for a moment that "possession" numbers actually measure possession.

When Andersson & Hanifin played together it was in a top 4 role. When Andersson & Kylington play together it's a 3rd pairing role... so even if the possession numbers aren't any better... they are more impressive because they are facing more difficult competition. Not to mention Andersson & Kylington have played together quite a bit, while Andersson and Hanifin have not, which automatically gives an advantage to the pairing that know each other better and have more of an opportunity to develop chemistry.

 

[super6646]

Hanafins possession numbers when not with Hamonic are abysmal, playing with Andersson he doesn't do any better than Kylington does.

Plus

QoT >>QoC

Andersson has had pretty poor possession with virtually everyone this year. He's gotten a lot better as of late, but he's still a net negative on the third pair for the year overall.

 

[super6646]

Wait. So Hanifin >> Giordano?
Because he spends more time starting the game in the defensive end, and has lower QoT?

I think this is beaten to death. Hanifin has played better, significantly, than any of our other young D. He's trusted, gives you 20+ HARD minutes a night, produces, and is a positive possession player.

You could dislike him, but the dude's a stud. He's been fantastic; he's playing big tough minutes, he's getting hammered on zone starts, he's on pace for 40 points, he's been one of our best PKers (better than Hamonic, IMO) and the guy's all of 4 months older than Kylington and 2 months younger than Andersson.

Guy's an ex top pick, and he's one for a reason.

This... 100% this. You cannot compared 13 minutes against bottom 6 competition compared to 21-22 minutes against top 6 players and in a pretty hard shutdown role at times. Considering hanifin was super sheltered in carolina and has transitioned so well to his new role should make people here extatic at his upside, but I guess he didn't hold the blue line well that one time so he has hockey iq issues and needs to be traded asap. Lol

 

[Dack]

Wait. So Hanifin >> Giordano?
Because he spends more time starting the game in the defensive end, and has lower QoT?

I think this is beaten to death. Hanifin has played better, significantly, than any of our other young D. He's trusted, gives you 20+ HARD minutes a night, produces, and is a positive possession player.

You could dislike him, but the dude's a stud. He's been fantastic; he's playing big tough minutes, he's getting hammered on zone starts, he's on pace for 40 points, he's been one of our best PKers (better than Hamonic, IMO) and the guy's all of 4 months older than Kylington and 2 months younger than Andersson.

Guy's an ex top pick, and he's one for a reason.

I said QoT is more important than QoC not that it wipes away everything else and simply having a worse Qot makes you a better player.

Something like this explains it better

Why Quality of Competition doesn’t matter

https://www.nhlnumbers.com/2016/11/4/beware-of-what-zone-starts-are-telling-you-part-ii-shot-metrics

Yes hes trusted over the 2 rookie d men because he has over 200 games played under his current coach. One is in his 1st season and the other is in his 4th after 2 years of struggling because he was rushed to the NHL. If Hanafin wasn't playing more than either of the rookie d men are in his 4th NHL season there would be a massive issue.

I don't dislike him. I think he's made to look far better than he is because he plays with a much better player.

The only reason I even brought up Possession stats is because people keep using them as some big bonus for him even though they crater when not with Hamonic.

Absolutely no knocks on his offense he's been great.

While he's only 22 he's been in the NHL for almost 4 years now. I know it happens but how many players actually get significantly better in their 5th seasons and beyond.

[/QUOTE]Let's pretend for a moment that "possession" numbers actually measure possession. When Andersson & Hanifin played together it was in a top 4 role. When Andersson & Kylington play together it's a 3rd pairing role... so even if the possession numbers aren't any better... they are more impressive because they are facing more difficult competition. Not to mention Andersson & Kylington have played together quite a bit, while Andersson and Hanifin have not, which automatically gives an advantage to the pairing that know each other better and have more of an opportunity to develop chemistry.[/QUOTE] I know that. I'm not arguing that Hanafin is some awful player I'm sayin that maybe he's not our number #3 D man and that hes not a future number 1. Like seriously if Kylington is a #6 with significant gaps in his game then Hanafin who performs exactly the same against slightly higher competition is what?

Hanafin does face harder competition and he does get harder zone starts. I'm just not sure how much effect that's actually going to have on the numbers. Also my beef with Hanafin has never been about his numbers it comes strictly from watching him but everytime I bring it up it's just dismissed as him being young.




I didn't even bring up the analytics everyone just keeps using them as evidence of something Hanafin does well without looking at the circumstances surrounding them.


Edit: Honestly its beyond dumb the amount of strawman arguments that people use for players because they're young. He's in his fourth season guys he had room to grow but I don't see why everyone seems to think that your career doesn't actually start until your like 25. This same stuff was said about Bennett 2 years ago.

 

[super6646]

I said QoT is more important than QoC not that it wipes away everything else and simply having a worse Qot makes you a better player.

Something like this explains it better
Corsi adjusted for zone starts and QoC?

Yes hes trusted over the 2 rookie d men because he has over 200 games played under his current coach. One is in his 1st season and the other is in his 4th after 2 years of struggling because he was rushed to the NHL. If Hanafin wasn't playing more than either of the rookie d men are in his 4th NHL season there would be a massive issue.

I don't dislike him. I think he's made to look far better than he is because he plays with a much better player.

The only reason I even brought up Possession stats is because people keep using them as some big bonus for him even though they crater when not with Hamonic.

Absolutely no knocks on his offense he's been great.

While he's only 22 he's been in the NHL for almost 4 years now. I know it happens but how many players actually get significantly better in their 5th seasons and beyond.

Let's pretend for a moment that "possession" numbers actually measure possession. When Andersson & Hanifin played together it was in a top 4 role. When Andersson & Kylington play together it's a 3rd pairing role... so even if the possession numbers aren't any better... they are more impressive because they are facing more difficult competition. Not to mention Andersson & Kylington have played together quite a bit, while Andersson and Hanifin have not, which automatically gives an advantage to the pairing that know each other better and have more of an opportunity to develop chemistry.[/QUOTE] I know that. I'm not arguing that Hanafin is some awful player I'm sayin that maybe he's not our number #3 D man and that hes not a future number 1. Like seriously if Kylington is a #6 with significant gaps in his game then Hanafin who performs exactly the same against slightly higher competition is what?

Hanafin does face harder competition and he does get harder zone starts. I'm just not sure how much effect that's actually going to have on the numbers. Also my beef with Hanafin has never been about his numbers it comes strictly from watching him but everytime I bring it up it's just dismissed as him being young.




I didn't even bring up the analytics everyone just keeps using them as evidence of something Hanafin does well without looking at the circumstances surrounding them.


Edit: Honestly its beyond dumb the amount of strawman arguments that people use for players because they're young. He's in his fourth season guys he had room to grow but I don't see why everyone seems to think that your career doesn't actually start until your like 25. This same stuff was said about Bennett 2 years ago.[/QUOTE]

Canes fans last year: Elias Lindholm will be nothing more than a 45 pt winger.... that's what he's been for his first 5 seasons.

I'll see myself out.

 

[Dack]

Canes fans last year: Elias Lindholm will be nothing more than a 45 pt winger.... that's what he's been for his first 5 seasons.

I'll see myself out.

Because he's playing with Johnny Gaudreau... even then he's not the rule he's the exception. But you're right I did write myself into a bit of a hole there. For every Lindholm there's a Frolik, a Phaneuf and an Adam Larsson.

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

Hanifin has room to grow, but it shouldn't make him out to be painted as a future #1 on a sweetheart deal. He's a solid #4D making #4D money with some upside.

Pretending he is the only guy capable of doing heavy lifting is silly, it was only last offseason when all the knocks on him were how sheltered he was and how he would falter in an elevated role - and then he faltered for the first month of the season before Hamonic came in and saved the day. Have people forgotten how unimpressive the Flames looked while Hamonic was out? Hanifin wasn't a #3, he was a talented young player who was unable to carry Stone or Andersson on the second pair. For much of that stretch it was actually the Valimaki-Stone pair that was looking like our second pair and I wouldn't be surprised if they were taking on tougher matchups than Hanifin-Andersson.

Hanifin has some serious tools that let him succeed on the second pair beside Hamonic - high-end skating, offensive creativity, a decent first pass, a solid point shot. This doesn't mean we should overlook his weak areas and then flip around and use those identical weak areas to knock another player. Hanifin does make poor reads, and it has nothing to do with quality of competition and everything to do with his own judging of gaps and the modt dangerous player on the ice. Playing with Hamonic helps hide many of those weaknesses.

Know who has almost the same set of strengths, weaknesses, and perceived "sheltering" that Hanifin had in October? Oliver Kylington. And he's not making #4 money.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

It’s frustrating that we can’t have an objective conversation with some about this. Ferland was awesome in his time here, just because he was dealt doesn’t change that.

The argument isn’t that Hanifin isn’t great or doesn’t have extremely high upside, it’s more that he’s an extremely valuable commodity and are the Flames best served using that asset to fill a hole up front. None of Kylington, Valimaki or Andersson hold near Hanifin’s value, that’s what the conversation is about. I love Hanifin and ideally I don’t want him going anywhere but it’s more the fact that the Flames have lots of depth on the backend.

Let’s say we were to move Kylington, we would be lucky to get someone like Kapanen, in fact we would be adding to that. Hanifin would arguably fetch Stone, Nylander, Ehlers, etc.

 

[Dertell]

FYI, 10% zone starts rel is equal to ~1.6 CF%Rel. It's not that big of a deal.

 

[super6646]

Because he's playing with Johnny Gaudreau... even then he's not the rule he's the exception. But you're right I did write myself into a bit of a hole there. For every Lindholm there's a Frolik, a Phaneuf and an Adam Larsson.

Guess playing with talent makes talented players look good? Chiasson was still garbage beside him, so what's your point? Very few players stop developing at 22.

Hanifin has room to grow, but it shouldn't make him out to be painted as a future #1 on a sweetheart deal. He's a solid #4D making #4D money with some upside.

Pretending he is the only guy capable of doing heavy lifting is silly, it was only last offseason when all the knocks on him were how sheltered he was and how he would falter in an elevated role - and then he faltered for the first month of the season before Hamonic came in and saved the day. Have people forgotten how unimpressive the Flames looked while Hamonic was out? Hanifin wasn't a #3, he was a talented young player who was unable to carry Stone or Andersson on the second pair. For much of that stretch it was actually the Valimaki-Stone pair that was looking like our second pair and I wouldn't be surprised if they were taking on tougher matchups than Hanifin-Andersson.

Hanifin has some serious tools that let him succeed on the second pair beside Hamonic - high-end skating, offensive creativity, a decent first pass, a solid point shot. This doesn't mean we should overlook his weak areas and then flip around and use those identical weak areas to knock another player. Hanifin does make poor reads, and it has nothing to do with quality of competition and everything to do with his own judging of gaps and the modt dangerous player on the ice. Playing with Hamonic helps hide many of those weaknesses.

Know who has almost the same set of strengths, weaknesses, and perceived "sheltering" that Hanifin had in October? Oliver Kylington. And he's not making #4 money.

Remember when hamonic was garbage last year? Just because they have good chemistry, doesn't mean one of them is heavy lifting. I have no clue where this narrative started, but it's really not true. Also, if kylington was capable of top 4 minutes, he would get them. He's a net negative in regards to possession playing easy minutes and if you want to argue that andersson is the reason he is, than the argument that hanifin not "carrying" him properly goes out the window too.

 

[Dack]

Guess playing with talent makes talented players look good? Chiasson was still garbage beside him, so what's your point? Very few players stop developing at 22.



Remember when hamonic was garbage last year? Just because they have good chemistry, doesn't mean one of them is heavy lifting. I have no clue where this narrative started, but it's really not true. Also, if kylington was capable of top 4 minutes, he would get them. He's a net negative in regards to possession playing easy minutes and if you want to argue that andersson is the reason he is, than the argument that hanifin not "carrying" him properly goes out the window too.

Not necessarily he wouldn't just last year Kulak wasn't even an everyday player despite being a huge upgrade in Bartkowski and now he's an everyday player and a nice find for the Canadiens.

Chiasson wasn't good with Gaudreau but he's probably going to hit 20 goals this season with McDavid. I guess that's where chemistry comes in to play.

 

[Anglesmith]

It’s frustrating that we can’t have an objective conversation with some about this. Ferland was awesome in his time here, just because he was dealt doesn’t change that.

The argument isn’t that Hanifin isn’t great or doesn’t have extremely high upside, it’s more that he’s an extremely valuable commodity and are the Flames best served using that asset to fill a hole up front. None of Kylington, Valimaki or Andersson hold near Hanifin’s value, that’s what the conversation is about. I love Hanifin and ideally I don’t want him going anywhere but it’s more the fact that the Flames have lots of depth on the backend.

Let’s say we were to move Kylington, we would be lucky to get someone like Kapanen, in fact we would be adding to that. Hanifin would arguably fetch Stone, Nylander, Ehlers, etc.

The argument to trade Hanifin is essentially the same as the argument to trade Tkachuk. His value is sky-high, so he'd bring back a huge return. It's arguable that all of his success has come down to opportunity to play with other players. He noticeably makes mistakes every game. We have other young guys who can play LW. Compared to moving a Mangiapane or Dube, Tkachuk would get us a way better haul. Trading Tkachuk would also help our cap situation for next year tremendously.

The argument not to trade Hanifin is the same as the argument not to trade Tkachuk.

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

G
Remember when hamonic was garbage last year?

No, because not one of our top 4D was ever garbage last year. Neither was our 3rd pair. Hamonic took some time to adjust to aggressive systems having come from a passive team in New York but he was never garbage, it was clear from day one that his first pass and ability to break up a cycle were legit top 4D material.

The only things that were garbage last year were:

Our Forward-biased systems that held the D core back
Our #1 Power play after Versteeg's injury
Our #2 Powerplay after Tkachuk was bumped up to PP1
Our obsession with top 9 forward Garnet Hathaway
Stajan-Brouwer as a PK unit getting shit kicked
Team shooting percentage with Backlund, Bennett, Jagr, Frolik having huge down years
TJ Brodie's confidence on the breakout playing the left side in a restictive system

Despite all of the above, going into last year's all star break we were a playoff team because our top 6D and our first line were that good.

Just because they have good chemistry, doesn't mean one of them is heavy lifting.

Hamonic erases a lot more of Hanifin's gaffes than Hanifin does Hamonic. In fact Hamonic's gaffes are guaranteed to find the back of the net because Hanifin is rarely covering for him.

Also, if kylington was capable of top 4 minutes, he would get them.

This is a falacy. If you truly believe anything is this black and white we really have nothing more to discuss.

He's a net negative in regards to possession playing easy minutes and if you want to argue that andersson is the reason he is, than the argument that hanifin not "carrying" him properly goes out the window too.

Kylington and Hanifin are similar tiers of players - Neither can carry Andersson right now. Even Mark Giordano's numbers crater with Andersson to --2.07% CFRel and he is undoubtably the best possession D on the team.

Using Andersson's numbers to knock Kylington is inherently flawed because Kylington has been glued to Andersson for virtually his entire NHL career. It's not a coincidence that Kylington's numbers, in those same sheltered minutes, completely skyrocket when his partner is friggin Dalton Prout.

Saying Kylington could play well with Hamonic on the second pair is not baseless It's based on the countless things that Kylington does at a clearly second or top pair level - things that have nothing to do with competition and everything to do with his stretch pass, his skating, his stickwork, his gap control, his offensive game, his reads, his elusiveness and tight puck skills under pressure, his quick and intelligent clears as forecheckers pressure him. All things that won't change as competition increases.

The only thing Kylington has not done to prove himself is the only thing outside of his control - usage.

 

[Iggys Dome]

Tre might actually be the most valuable part of our organizatiom if he isn't signing free agents.

This. The thing is I’ll trust his decision making anyway (not blindly- he’s made errors), but he’s had a lot more hits than misses as a GM. I gained a lot of respect for him at the presser after he fired GG, when he shouldered most of the blame. He set out in the off season and rectified this roster and coaching staff. We had no idea if it would work, but it’s looking like it’s some of the most important moves in franchise history.

 

[super6646]

No, because not one of our top 4D was ever garbage last year. Neither was our 3rd pair. Hamonic took some time to adjust to aggressive systems having come from a passive team in New York but he was never garbage, it was clear from day one that his first pass and ability to break up a cycle were legit top 4D material.

The only things that were garbage last year were:

Our Forward-biased systems that held the D core back
Our #1 Power play after Versteeg's injury
Our #2 Powerplay after Tkachuk was bumped up to PP1
Our obsession with top 9 forward Garnet Hathaway
Stajan-Brouwer as a PK unit getting **** kicked
Team shooting percentage with Backlund, Bennett, Jagr, Frolik having huge down years
TJ Brodie's confidence on the breakout playing the left side in a restictive system

Despite all of the above, going into last year's all star break we were a playoff team because our top 6D and our first line were that good.



Hamonic erases a lot more of Hanifin's gaffes than Hanifin does Hamonic. In fact Hamonic's gaffes are guaranteed to find the back of the net because Hanifin is rarely covering for him.



This is a falacy. If you truly believe anything is this black and white we really have nothing more to discuss.



Kylington and Hanifin are similar tiers of players - Neither can carry Andersson right now. Even Mark Giordano's numbers crater with Andersson to --2.07% CFRel and he is undoubtably the best possession D on the team.

Using Andersson's numbers to knock Kylington is inherently flawed because Kylington has been glued to Andersson for virtually his entire NHL career. It's not a coincidence that Kylington's numbers, in those same sheltered minutes, completely skyrocket when his partner is friggin Dalton Prout.

Saying Kylington could play well with Hamonic on the second pair is not baseless It's based on the countless things that Kylington does at a clearly second or top pair level - things that have nothing to do with competition and everything to do with his stretch pass, his skating, his stickwork, his gap control, his offensive game, his reads, his elusiveness and tight puck skills under pressure, his quick and intelligent clears as forecheckers pressure him. All things that won't change as competition increases.

The only thing Kylington has not done to prove himself is the only thing outside of his control - usage.

In regards to your first point, our d-core gave up 244 goals last year, which was 19th best. The second pair in large part was awful at actual defending, and while I don't think hamonic or Brodie were at fault more so than our system, absolutely there were questions at the actual effectiveness of our defense.

As for the rest, I've made my stance clear that I don't think he's ready for top 4 minutes YET. There is a lot I like about his game, and honestly I think he's been better than valimaki in his time here. He skates like a prime Erik karlsson, and that is not hyperbole on my part, and has some great offensive tools (needs to work on timing is one-time shot, because it's actually really effective when he doesn't whiff on it). But his gap contorl and positioning are nowhere near perfect, and his skating wouldn't bail him out against top 6 players. I will concede this, if kylington can put everything together, he will be our future #1d, and that's because he really has a ton of tools that can make for a solid defensemen. Just his staking alone will probably be enough to make him a top 4d in his prime. We will find out in the following years, but I think it's envyable that we have to argue which one of our young defensemen will be the best considering how hopeless some other teams are (hint hint, look 300 km north).

 

[Bounces R Way]

Flames: this is a young promising blueline...

Flames fans: HURRY AND TRADE THEM BEFORE THEY LOSE VALUE

 

[super6646]

Flames: this is a young promising blueline...

Flames fans: HURRY AND TRADE THEM BEFORE THEY LOSE VALUE

Oilers fans are probably crying inside knowing that we can actually argue over this

 

[Lunatik]

It’s frustrating that we can’t have an objective conversation with some about this. Ferland was awesome in his time here, just because he was dealt doesn’t change that.

The argument isn’t that Hanifin isn’t great or doesn’t have extremely high upside, it’s more that he’s an extremely valuable commodity and are the Flames best served using that asset to fill a hole up front. None of Kylington, Valimaki or Andersson hold near Hanifin’s value, that’s what the conversation is about. I love Hanifin and ideally I don’t want him going anywhere but it’s more the fact that the Flames have lots of depth on the backend.

Let’s say we were to move Kylington, we would be lucky to get someone like Kapanen, in fact we would be adding to that. Hanifin would arguably fetch Stone, Nylander, Ehlers, etc.

That's not entirely true when you have folks claiming Kylington is better, because he simply isn't.