Speculation: Armchair GM Thread - 2019/20 Season Part 2

[InfinityIggy]

If we trade JG we are going to get absolutely hosed. Some of the proposed returns I've seen are really pie in the sky.

The best hope is some other team is disgruntled with one of their stars (none come to mind, maybe Laine) and want to make a swap.

Otherwise we are going to get a 'top-6' (read mediocre) forward + some decent but not that great futures (late 1st, not-quite-bluechip prospect).

 

[Khrox]

Tkachuk-Kadri-Lindholm/Hall

That would be a hell of a line for about 65 games or so (I assume that would be all the 3 of them would actually play together. Tkachuk and Kadri risking suspensions, and Hall risking injury). But during those games, that would probably be our defacto #1 line. All 3 of them are capable of being wrecking balls out there, Kadri and Tkachuk are top notch pests, and Hall isn't exactly soft (if anything, he'd be less injury prone if he toned down a bit). This would be amazing to watch.

 

[DCDM]

If we trade JG we are going to get absolutely hosed. Some of the proposed returns I've seen are really pie in the sky.

The best hope is some other team is disgruntled with one of their stars (none come to mind, maybe Laine) and want to make a swap.

Otherwise we are going to get a 'top-6' (read mediocre) forward + some decent but not that great futures (late 1st, not-quite-bluechip prospect).

Pretty much. Teams that trade star forwards for "packages" rarely, if ever, come out ahead.

At least I somewhat trust Treliving to get the best deal here though. I don't envy him being the guy who, for better or worse, is gonna go down as the guy who traded Johnny Gaudreau.

 

[Flames Fanatic]

Pretty much. Teams that trade star forwards for "packages" rarely, if ever, come out ahead.

At least I somewhat trust Treliving to get the best deal here though. I don't envy him being the guy who, for better or worse, is gonna go down as the guy who traded Johnny Gaudreau.

Only way we win is if Tre gets good/great assets and then also uses the cap space effectively on a free agent. Alone though, yeah, teams rarely win moving the best player. Maybe we'll get lucky with a Pacioretty esque trade.

 

[Volica]

So, this past weekend, I was working on an article for a project that I'm working on with some folks RE:Flames, that essentially took that random Athletic "What it takes to build a cup winner" and actually dissected it to some bare numbers/positions for the top 5 priority positions/requirements for Stanley Cup winners.

It took a look at how the last 5 cup winning franchises as well as Tampa (Who will very likely be the 6th) put together a cup winning team in terms of 5 key component. What I did was eliminate the key factors like "Playoff Hero", essentially, there's no tangible way to account for someone who shows up big for a cup team, as there have been 1st line players through 13th forwards that have played that hero role.

What it broke it down to was five major factors:

1) An elite 1 Centre, who does not require an elite winger.
2) Either an elite 2C (A guy who'd be playing 1C on half the teams in the league) OR a an offensive minded 2C (someone who normally dominates possession, but still produces at a high level).
3) An elite winger. Preferably playing on the second line away from the first line centre. It elevates the 2C into almost a 1B type role. Someone who's goal forward during a playoff run will be +50% 5v5, and even better +60.
4) A Minute eating #1D that controls play heavily when they're on the ice (so 52+% to 60 % CF/SCF/GF)
5) A goalie that has the ability to be elite for a 20 game stretch. Does not require an all-world goalie.

When you look at the Flames, you essentially have 2.5 checks out of 5.
You don't have an elite centre. Monahan isn't that guy. Bennett isn't that guy. Lindholm fits more in that high-end 2C described above.
You have a very good 2C in Mikael Backlund, and in effect, Sean Monahan and Elias Lindholm.
You have the luxury of having 2 all-star wingers on this team, in Matthew Tkachuk and Johnny Gaudreau
You sort of have that 1D. You had in Gio a year ago, but this past season was regression, and in the playoffs this regressed further. He could find that level again, but you're also counting on it.
You don't have a goalie that could give you that elite level goaltending. Rittich has only shown it in very small patches, with some very ugly patches provided as well.

When you circle back to it, trading Gaudreau is a luxury for Calgary, BUT it has to resolve one of the other key ingredients. If you trade Johnny for a winger and some picks, this team is further behind today than it was yesterday. If you trade Johnny for a legitimate 1D, then you've checked a box. If you trade Johnny in a package to get a 1C that won't need him to produce (but will still play with the likes of Lindholm/Dube/Mangi/Bennett, i.e not pure scrubs) then you check a box and are closer.

The reality the Flames don't have a cup potential roster looking at modern NHL history, without making a key addition. If either of the two boxes in terms of 1C or 1D can be checked in a Gaudreau trade, then you do it.... if not, you're better off trying to land a goalie who can check the fifth box and hope Gio regains form... so that you can try to pseudo check the first requirement using Gaudreau/Some Combination of centres.

 

[Flames Fanatic]

Using Tampa as your comparable Volicia, we struck out comparatively. Monahan and Bennnett at 4 and 6 have not panned out into elite C's. Tampa had Stamkos (though you can argue about if he's actually a C or not) and Hedman with their top picks (and traded for Sergachev essentially with their other one, while we come out slightly ahead with the Tkachuk pick). Our late rounder hit in Gaudreau was a star winger, whereas they got Point who is arguably one of the top centers in the league AND Kucherov. Our next closet non early first round impact player is.... Mark Jankowski or Andrew Mangiapane.

They've also had significantly larger success drafting, free agency, developing depth, goaltending and trade chips. Their trades overall have also been highly impactful, mostly positively.

While yes we did get Gio from an undrafted UFA position, he was also significantly older. They also got St. Louis whose impact both from a development standpoint and eventual trade standpoint is still felt on the roster too, as well as Yani Gourde.

Tampa is hardly the standard model in some ways, as they've both been lucky, skilled and about to reap the consequences of their actions. To me, I look more at the Blues and see what they did right in terms of drafting and development, a few high picks, and trades.

Lindholm has been great, and Kadri could have been our Schenn move, but we've definitely lacked the Ryan O'Reilly esque player (and boy isn't that ironic). We could have had a similar one two punch on D with Gio and Dougie, but obviously that ship sailed. Gaudreau could have been our Tarasenko.

Just a lot of what could have beens, draft failures, and trades backfiring or failing to happen, and of course free agent backfires. Hindsight being 2020, but would be interesting to see what this team becomes without the Hamonic trade, finding a goalie sooner, and Brouwer/Neal not turning into disasters or simply not happening. As much as I still like the Dougie trade from Boston overall, imagine if we had one of Connor, Barzal or Chabot on the roster today instead. Really changes the feel of the "core".

 

[Volica]

Jack Eichel trade request. Brad. This is it. Anything they want. Literally anything. Multiple firsts, Mony, John, anyone, anything.

 

[Mobiandi]

Eichel reportedly wants out. Everything should be on the table

Edit: beaten to it. But yeah wow

 

[Mobiandi]

Jack Eichel trade request. Brad. This is it. Anything they want. Literally anything. Multiple firsts, Mony, John, anyone, anything.

McDavid patiently waits to see how this plays out

 

[Volica]

Fun fact:
When a #1C or potential #1C becomes available. Pay the price because you'll win that trade almost every time.

 

[Body Checker]

We are quite far from a Tampa comparison. We are too old in key spots, too soft in key spots and lack depth in forward spots 9-14 and defence spots 5-7 now. Also our top guys are well below Tampa’s top guys. We are nowhere near matching up with Vasilevsky, Hedman,McDonaugh, Point and Kucherov.

Johnny is a nice player, entertaining most of the time but right now this roster is just not in a place depth or cap wise to have him around for 2 years as I don’t think we are that close to a Cup contender. Use him as an asset to acquire assets like Gost, Farabee, Frost, 23rd pick, Myers, etc. in some combination (obviously won’t get all that) then add depth in free agency and move on.

Ive been watching the Flames since the 80s and Johnny, while fun to watch, does not elicit emotion from me like Macinnis, Gilmore, Nieuwendyk, Fleury, Iginla, Kipper did. I am kind of tired of his whining to the refs, embellishments and the such. Hey I enjoy watching him but he needs an attitude adjustment if he is going to stick around long term.

 

[Mobiandi]

Of the contenders, we are most closely represented by Boston by far in their roster construction

 

[InfinityIggy]

Give up whatever Buffalo wants for Eichel.

The idea of something around Monahan + Gaudreau for Eichel + Skinner springs to mind. Skinner being quasi-cap-dump.

 

[Body Checker]

Move on from Eichel; the rumor was debunked

 

[Mazatt]

Feel like anyone trading for Eichel is immediately in a worse spot because they have lesser players to build around him.

If I'm Buffalo, and you want an elite 1C in his prime for 5+ years, I'm saying Tkachuk, Andersson and a 1st is the starting point of what they wouldn't expect and you wait for Calgary to build up from there. We aren't getting Eichel for Monahan and Gaudreau, unless Buffalo's whole plan is to do what we've done and barely make the playoffs for revenue and are content without winning much of anything. If anything they also want to maybe push for Lindholm as part of the forward return for more certainty, is that a return we're willing to give up?

 

[Flames Fanatic]

Feel like anyone trading for Eichel is immediately in a worse spot because they have lesser players to build around him.

If I'm Buffalo, and you want an elite 1C in his prime for 5+ years, I'm saying Tkachuk, Andersson and a 1st is the starting point of what they wouldn't expect and you wait for Calgary to build up from there. We aren't getting Eichel for Monahan and Gaudreau, unless Buffalo's whole plan is to do what we've done and barely make the playoffs for revenue and are content without winning much of anything. If anything they also want to maybe push for Lindholm as part of the forward return for more certainty, is that a return we're willing to give up?

Even though it's been debunked already by Bob McKenzie, Monahan they could keep and then flip Gaudreau at 50% retained for big bucks from a contender. I'm not sure many teams top that offer in terms of what they could get back.

 

[Mazatt]

Even though it's been debunked already by Bob McKenzie, Monahan they could keep and then flip Gaudreau at 50% retained for big bucks from a contender. I'm not sure many teams top that offer in terms of what they could get back.

Ehhh I don't see it that way. If you're trading Eichel you are getting the best possible value you on him. Right now people are doubting what Gaudreau could get, thinks like Frost, Gostisbehere, and a 1st are being thrown around. Even Voracek and Ghost has been mentioned for the return alongside a prospect. Philly would easily give up more for Eichel, they could get a better prospect than anything Gaudreau gets, and Monahan being included won't change that. It's right back to where we are, thinking "If we trade Gaudreau, then we're f***ed with Monahan" except they are getting 50% back. It makes more sense to get assured value on Eichel from Buffalo's perspective than to hedge their bets and get a controlled asset and spin the wheel of Gaudreau's value

 

[Flames Fanatic]

Ehhh I don't see it that way. If you're trading Eichel you are getting the best possible value you on him. Right now people are doubting what Gaudreau could get, thinks like Frost, Gostisbehere, and a 1st are being thrown around. Even Voracek and Ghost has been mentioned for the return alongside a prospect. Philly would easily give up more for Eichel, they could get a better prospect than anything Gaudreau gets, and Monahan being included won't change that. It's right back to where we are, thinking "If we trade Gaudreau, then we're f***ed with Monahan" except they are getting 50% back. It makes more sense to get assured value on Eichel from Buffalo's perspective than to hedge their bets and get a controlled asset and spin the wheel of Gaudreau's value

Keep in mind we don't have any concrete value on Johnny. That makes it pretty nebulous. But Johnny at 3.375 million to a contender for two years? I think Buffalo could reap a kings ransom, and flip Monahan too for that matter if they really wanted.

Maybe Eichel gets more in return. I'm not sure. Most contending teams can't give up those high caliber of assets.

 

[Volica]

It's worth mentioning, when absolute stars get dealt, they rarely get dealt for what everyone expects.

In Buffalo's world, a Gaudreau/Monahan package gives them a replacement 1C in Monahan (while much, much, much lower end than Eichel), Gaudreau gives them their American star they can flip if they want to for further assets, or keep for the next two years. Then add in a bunch of firsts, that's probably better than most of the pieces that others can offer.

You see people on the board essentially throwing in firsts and random middle 6ers. Here you're getting an all-star, a 20-30 goal centre and a bunch fo first round picks. I'd even throw in Juuso or Rasmus in this trade... I think Calgary would just be better off with the legitimate centre in the mix.

I can't think of many teams in better positions to realistically make this happen. NYR is they want to move one of their top picks or this years' #1 (then again, does Buffalo want another first round pick, to pick a winger, that's a downgrade). Getting your replacement centre is a big deal that people don't want to admit; adding in a top winger in the game would be another big win.

The big issue, for Calgary, is not losing Matthew Tkachuk in the deal. He's the only guy I probably draw the line on, especially because I'm sure they'd expect further pieces on top of it (which at that time may not be worth it).

 

[JPeeper]

Fun fact:
When a #1C or potential #1C becomes available. Pay the price because you'll win that trade almost every time.

Agreed. I mean trading Gaudreau, Monahan, Tkachuk, Vali and 3 firsts we lose but.

Monahan + should get it done in reality. They won't get a better center back in a package and we can still add.

 

[Volica]

Agreed. I mean trading Gaudreau, Monahan, Tkachuk, Vali and 3 firsts we lose but.

Monahan + should get it done in reality. They won't get a better center back in a package and we can still add.

I mean, when's the last time a superstar was traded for two other super stars, a good 1B type centre, a bluechip prospect and three firsts. I mean, never. Unless someone invented a time machine and you could get a prime Gretzky or Sidney

Gaudreau + Monahan + 2 fists.

That's a f***ing haul. That's a f***ing haul that any GM in the league would have problems matching.

 

[Turning Mangiapanese]

Gaudreau + Monahan + 2 fists.

That's a f***ing haul. That's a f***ing haul that any GM in the league would have problems matching.

I'm just going to quote this for posterity before you fix that typo.

But yeah, I'd pay that price for Eichel.

I know these Eichel rumors pop up every offseason, but it was McKenzie who started this one and he does not make things up. Probably leaked by request of Eichel's agent, who then quickly denies the whole thing publicly so everyone looks good PR-wise... but puts a bit of real pressure on the Sabres.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

Give up whatever Buffalo wants for Eichel.

The idea of something around Monahan + Gaudreau for Eichel + Skinner springs to mind. Skinner being quasi-cap-dump.

For me, other than Tkachuk and Lindy, have it all.

 

[JPeeper]

Monahan + Hockey + 2 first is steep but Gaudreau is a ghost in the playoffs, Eichel is obviously Elite over Monahan and the two firsts hurts if we keep bleeding draft picks but the price is worth it for Eichel especially if Johnny ain't re-signing in 2 years. Tkachuk can fill top line duties or even Mangiapane since Eichel.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

I’d offer Monahan + Hanifin + Pelletier + 1st + 2nd.