Armchair GM: Offseason Roster Moves and Rumors

[thebus88]

It’s crazy to me how much talk and focus is being put on Nylander. He adds nothing to the team that it doesn’t already have. Small sample size while put in extremely favorable situations at the end of ANOTHER failed season during garbage time.

Can’t play center or on the PK and brings nothing to the ice that we should be looking to add to it. Not to mention the younger wingers that are just as good and overall number of wingers that we already have.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

It’s crazy to me how much talk and focus is being put on Nylander. He adds nothing to the team that it doesn’t already have. Small sample size while put in extremely favorable situations at the end of ANOTHER failed season during garbage time.

Can’t play center or on the PK and brings nothing to the ice that we should be looking to add to it. Not to mention the younger wingers that are just as good and overall number of wingers that we already have.

well, actually…

…wait, holy crap, we're 100% aligned on this one.

 

[cslebn]

It’s crazy to me how much talk and focus is being put on Nylander. He adds nothing to the team that it doesn’t already have. Small sample size while put in extremely favorable situations at the end of ANOTHER failed season during garbage time.

Can’t play center or on the PK and brings nothing to the ice that we should be looking to add to it. Not to mention the younger wingers that are just as good and overall number of wingers that we already have.

I think, not saying this is a good idea, that he's a replacement piece of we trade soothe middle six winger in a package to improve.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

It’s crazy to me how much talk and focus is being put on Nylander. He adds nothing to the team that it doesn’t already have. Small sample size while put in extremely favorable situations at the end of ANOTHER failed season during garbage time.

Can’t play center or on the PK and brings nothing to the ice that we should be looking to add to it. Not to mention the younger wingers that are just as good and overall number of wingers that we already have.

At $1 million or so per year, he's an organizational depth player at the worst. Org depth players are a part of any NHL team.

Let's say he is signed and doesn't do well in the NHL early next season and is sent to the AHL. CBJ have some injuries (couldn't happen, I know). Given the options of recalling a Meyer, Fix Wolanski, or Gaunce doesn't seem to be as useful as a potential 20 goal scorer like Nylander.

His salary can be "buried" and not affect the cap if sent to the minors. Virtually a no risk signing, IMO.

 

[majormajor]

As far as I can tell all of the focus and talk about Nylander is being driven by people who don't think he should be on our roster, and then others disagreeing with that giving a very tepid case for Nylander - that he's free, fully buriable cap hit, might be useful if we have injuries.

Has anyone put any focus and talk on Nylander in a highly positive light? It seems fair that someone should given how good he was. Thank you bus for bringing this shortcoming to my attention.

 

[thebus88]

Well, again, all some seem to care about is goals scored. What does Nylander do to help the team keep the puck out of the net or PROTECT leads??

We clearly need to look to add CENTERS, or guys with any possibility to play center. Versatility. I don’t see that with Nylander.

To add, talking about the “culture change”. What is Nylander? A quiet, soft, offensive winger. If we want to change the culture and bring in a different style of player, it would be MUCH easier to start off lower in the lineup with easier to acquire players, similar to Nylander.

 

[majormajor]

To add, talking about the “culture change”. What is Nylander? A quiet, soft, offensive winger. If we want to change the culture and bring in a different style of player, it would be MUCH easier to start off lower in the lineup with easier to acquire players, similar to Nylander.

That makes sense but the thing with Nylander is that you can scratch him and send him down as you see fit. He maybe starts the season as 13 or 14F. Whoever we'd be bringing in to be that different style of player would be on that kind of level with a fully buriable cap hit. Probably not a good player, though I'd listen if you have candidates in mind.

I am fully on board with bringing in that different sort of player higher up in the lineup, with a real contract and (unlike Nylander) real risk, that just doesn't have that much to do with Nylander.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

nylander is a perfect 13th forward who you keep in the press box in case there's an injury in the top six, or a player who is mired in a slump. olivier is a perfect 14th forward who fits that role for the bottom six.

he's a nice story but not an up-and-coming prospect (older than laine!) and he's not going to displace anyone from the top nine, nor should he be expected to.

the guy he actually is displacing (in terms of NHL opportunity/role) is trey fix-wolansky, who, shockingly, is somehow only a year younger than nylander.

 

[majormajor]

he's a nice story but not an up-and-coming prospect (older than laine!) and he's not going to displace anyone from the top nine, nor should he be expected to.

We're making too much of the average age-development curve. 26 year olds pop in the NHL, it happens every year. It's how Bill Zito has built a juggernaut. I don't have high expectations for Nylander but for all we know he could end up as a top half of the lineup type of player for part of his career.

the guy he actually is displacing (in terms of NHL opportunity/role) is trey fix-wolansky, who, shockingly, is somehow only a year younger than nylander.

TFW was never really a candidate to be a 13 or 14F. If guys like Milano and Duclair were a standard deviation below NHL average defense, TFW is two standard deviations below. Not a viable 5v5 player. Carson Meyer is the guy who could be a 13 or 14F.

 

[MoeBartoli]

At $1 million or so per year, he's an organizational depth player at the worst. Org depth players are a part of any NHL team.

Let's say he is signed and doesn't do well in the NHL early next season and is sent to the AHL. CBJ have some injuries (couldn't happen, I know). Given the options of recalling a Meyer, Fix Wolanski, or Gaunce doesn't seem to be as useful as a potential 20 goal scorer like Nylander.

His salary can be "buried" and not affect the cap if sent to the minors. Virtually a no risk signing, IMO.

I’m with you for the reasons you cite. What I liked about Nylander was that he was effective on the 3rd line with Sillinger before joining Johnny on the first line (which was not where he should be). That he scores close to the net is also appealing as we have guys who shoot from the circles. While he is 26, my hope would be is that we saw him emerge similarly to how JAM did at 25 once on a club where he got the chance and was mentally ready to play.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

Well, again, all some seem to care about is goals scored. What does Nylander do to help the team keep the puck out of the net or PROTECT leads??

We clearly need to look to add CENTERS, or guys with any possibility to play center. Versatility. I don’t see that with Nylander.

To add, talking about the “culture change”. What is Nylander? A quiet, soft, offensive winger. If we want to change the culture and bring in a different style of player, it would be MUCH easier to start off lower in the lineup with easier to acquire players, similar to Nylander.

When your team is in the bottom quarter in goals scored and your leading scorer has 23 goals-tied for 101st in the NHL-goal scoring is an issue. A big one

Once again, I'm looking at him as an org depth guy, but as Moe Bartoli pointed out, he could be a late bloomer like Marchessault. He was the 8th pick of his draft so there's talent there. He's not a throw away player like a Meyer is. Meyer will never amount to anything in the NHL. At least Nylander has a chance to become a useful NHLer. He might develop into a really good two way player.

At his price, the organization would be foolish not to go with him for at least another year.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

To add, talking about the “culture change”. What is Nylander? A quiet, soft, offensive winger. If we want to change the culture and bring in a different style of player,

I mean, JD said the culture needed changed but he didn’t say how or in what way or what the culture is now or what it should be.

So who the hell knows?

 

[koteka]

I mean, JD said the culture needed changed but he didn’t say how or in what way or what the culture is now or what it should be.

So who the hell knows?

True. Maybe they think Olivier is the problem. I mean, you can’t have the highlight of the season be Olivier punching Rempe in the face. So the obvious CBJ type solution is let’s get rid of Olivier and bring in guys who won’t fight.



BTW, I went to one of the last few home games. They were showing some highlight clips of the season during a break and Olivier punching Rempe got a huge cheer.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

True. Maybe they think Olivier is the problem. I mean, you can’t have the highlight of the season be Olivier punching Rempe in the face. So the obvious CBJ type solution is let’s get rid of Olivier and bring in guys who won’t fight.



BTW, I went to one of the last few home games. They were showing some highlight clips of the season during a break and Olivier punching Rempe got a huge cheer.

Yes, the culture outcomes are completely binary. More guys who fight or less guys who fight. That's it. Fighting = culture.

 

[squashmaple]

True. Maybe they think Olivier is the problem. I mean, you can’t have the highlight of the season be Olivier punching Rempe in the face. So the obvious CBJ type solution is let’s get rid of Olivier and bring in guys who won’t fight.



BTW, I went to one of the last few home games. They were showing some highlight clips of the season during a break and Olivier punching Rempe got a huge cheer.

Unironically, though, I could see the Priest regime having an issue with Olivier, but not for this. He publicly criticized the team and organization on live TV during a game. That's a massive no-no for the Priest Jackets.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Unironically, though, I could see the Priest regime having an issue with Olivier, but not for this. He publicly criticized the team and organization on live TV during a game. That's a massive no-no for the Priest Jackets.

the mike priest blue jackets seem 100% content to just exist in their niche within this market if it means they never have to refresh their stale, dated business practices (particularly marketing + game ops) or, god forbid, try to innovate.

Once again, I'm looking at him as an org depth guy, but as Moe Bartoli pointed out, he could be a late bloomer like Marchessault. He was the 8th pick of his draft so there's talent there.

marchessault is the exception, not the rule.

florida signed marchessault for cheap in the nascent days of analytics, and with a memed-to-death group of analytics disciples at the top of their hockey ops. the public sphere analytics personalities were all clamoring for a team to sign him. a few years later, they'd to the same for verhaeghe.



that same community has, by and large, spent the last few years calling nylander a bust or saying he did not project as an NHL player.

marchessault and verhaeghe both put up absurdly good results in low-usage roles, which the analytics community keyed in on and believed warranted bigger roles. that's not at all what nylander has shown in his career.

draft pedigree doesn't matter to me when the player is already 26. nobody's predicting that michael dal colle and logan brown are finally going to become stars this year, or saying the jackets should re-sign jakub zboril.

hell, the jackets have the guy who was second overall pick in the same draft as nylander, and that guy has a higher career scoring rate (0.81 ppg) over 480 games than what nylander did in a 23-game heater this season (0.65 ppg), and the fans are clamoring to get the former off the roster!

 

[koteka]

Yes, the culture outcomes are completely binary. More guys who fight or less guys who fight. That's it. Fighting = culture.

My point is that the greatest highlight of the season (based on actual ticket-buying fan reaction to a highlight video) is a fight, which is probably not what the team wants. So the simple solution to that issue is not play better hockey, it is get rid of the fighter. It was a joke.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

My point is that the greatest highlight of the season (based on actual ticket-buying fan reaction to a highlight video) is a fight, which is probably not what the team wants. So the simple solution to that issue is not play better hockey, it is get rid of the fighter. It was a joke.

Gotcha.

 

[majormajor]

marchessault is the exception, not the rule.

There are so many exceptions to the rule that I do not think it is useful to think of it as a rule.

You can throw Dakota Joshua in as an example of a guy who was an AHLer not that long ago, and is just figuring it out at age 27.

 

[EspenK]

That makes sense but the thing with Nylander is that you can scratch him and send him down as you see fit. He maybe starts the season as 13 or 14F. Whoever we'd be bringing in to be that different style of player would be on that kind of level with a fully buriable cap hit. Probably not a good player, though I'd listen if you have candidates in mind.

I am fully on board with bringing in that different sort of player higher up in the lineup, with a real contract and (unlike Nylander) real risk, that just doesn't have that much to do with Nylander.

Actually you can only send Nylander down if you want to risk having him claimed. Personally I think he showed enough to get a deal and I would hope he continues to produce.

 

[majormajor]

Actually you can only send Nylander down if you want to risk having him claimed. Personally I think he showed enough to get a deal and I would hope he continues to produce.

Right but I meant that fear of losing him is not a reason to not sign him in the first place.

We can unload him to the minors / waivers anytime we want.

 

[Viqsi]

Well, again, all some seem to care about is goals scored. What does Nylander do to help the team keep the puck out of the net or PROTECT leads??

We clearly need to look to add CENTERS, or guys with any possibility to play center. Versatility. I don’t see that with Nylander.

To add, talking about the “culture change”. What is Nylander? A quiet, soft, offensive winger. If we want to change the culture and bring in a different style of player, it would be MUCH easier to start off lower in the lineup with easier to acquire players, similar to Nylander.

Your analysis seems to be assuming a zero-sum game in which keeping Nylander means missing out on someone else. I do not think this is a fair or accurate assumption.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

There are so many exceptions to the rule that I do not think it is useful to think of it as a rule.

You can throw Dakota Joshua in as an example of a guy who was an AHLer not that long ago, and is just figuring it out at age 27.

dakota joshua – who i think is a decent player – isn't the "not every mid-20s winger turns into jonathan marchessault" counterpoint you think he is.

• he had a shooting percentage (21.4%) over 2x the league average
• was on a team that had two superstar forwards (miller + EP40) absorb (and dominate) the toughest matchups
• he played with significantly better linemates (garland and blueger) than the year before (nils aman and curtis lazar)
• he did significantly worse in terms of CF% and xGF% away from those linemates than they did away from him (joshua CF% without garland = 36%, garland CF% without joshua = 57%)

even if you only normalize for shooting percentage instead of all the other factors, you're left with a player putting up 23 points in 63 games, which is not star-level production by any stretch of the imagination.

marchessault is the exception because he was always going to end up as a top-line player. he dominated big AHL minutes and small NHL minutes. florida's analytics team (and every single analytics personality on twitter) saw that he was worthy of an opportunity when the hockey dinosaurs didn't.

in his first full-time tase of NHL action, he scored 30 goals. the season after that, he put up 75 points and was above a point per game in the playoffs. he was always a stud, he was just overlooked because he was a small UDFA winger.

 

[majormajor]

dakota joshua – who i think is a decent player – isn't the "not every mid-20s winger turns into jonathan marchessault" counterpoint you think he is.

I think Joshua is a very useful player right now, that's all.

You're arguing [Someone else said] that we shouldn't sign a 26 year old to a near league minimum contract, so it's on you to make the case not just that he isn't Marchessault, but that he isn't useful at all.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

I think Joshua is a very useful player right now, that's all.

that's fine

You're arguing that we shouldn't sign a 26 year old to a near league minimum contract, so it's on you to make the case not just that he isn't Marchessault, but that he isn't useful at all.

did you miss the comment where i said nylander is perfectly cast as a 13th forward who can play spot duty on a scoring line when there are injuries?

my two positions on nylander are "he's good depth for a team that always has injury problems" and "he's not jonathan marchessault, who is a first line forward" – it's on you to explain 1) how those are incompatible and 2) how that even remotely resembles an argument that he shouldn't be signed at all?

the broader point i was making re: marchessault is those guys (i.e. him + verhaeghe) fit a very specific mold of "guy who dominates in the AHL + dominates in very limited NHL role, then dominates in their first expanded NHL role"

the subsequent point is that dakota joshua (career 0.4p/gp in the AHL, 0.34p/gp in the NHL) and alex nylander (career 0.75p/gp AHL, 0.41p/gp NHL in 120+ games) do not fit the extremely specific mold of the extremely specific player (marchessault) that people keep waving around as a comparable.