Proposal: Armchair GM - An unbiased look at the Montreal Canadiens

belair

Jay Woodcroft Unemployment Stance
Apr 9, 2010
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This is a bit of a read but these are just my thoughts as a neutral observer. I have no hate for the Habs nor do I particularly love them either. I just feel that the team has been spinning its tires since the PK Subban deal and need to stop using half-measures to address their team needs. Reading Elliotte Friedman's comments in his '31 Thoughts' blog this week about Marc Bergevin got me thinking...

3. I think Montreal GM Marc Bergevin wanted to get through those three games against Boston to see if the Canadiens had a shot at getting back into the race. We know the answer, and it is no. Bergevin, busy at even the quietest of times, is very active, trying to get something going. There’s a reason he won’t use the word “rebuild,” and that reason is Colorado. The cap has evened-out the NHL. Everyone has a fatal flaw, and just because you are bad one year doesn’t mean you’re bad the next. I don’t think he’s trading Carey Price, Shea Weber or Victor Mete. I find it extremely unlikely he’s trading Jonathan Drouin. Other than that? He’s listening and ready.

Marc Bergevin made two very substantial moves over the past two summers respectively that he hung his entire GM career on. He went all-in on a small core group of players on the cusp of stepping outside of their primes. Shea Weber and Carey Price are the backbone of the Montreal Canadiens and both are now moving into their 30s. Both are signed through to 2026, when both are likely in the twilight of their respective careers. He gambled on these players because he himself was convinced that they are capable of providing the base of a championship team.

That gamble hasn't paid off. For the past two seasons Habs fans have halfheartedly called for Bergevin's head as they've seen him shuffle deck chairs and add depth toughness to try to spark their cause. Many are convinced the Habs are on the verge of a total rebuild and it's my opinion that doing so would be a substantial mistake. Trading off expensive assets is more than likely to yield lackluster returns making a Montreal rebuild a long-term, fruitless endeavor. Perhaps Marc Bergevin isn't the man to make the calls moving forward, but I believe doubling-down on his gambles could turn the team around in short order...
 

belair

Jay Woodcroft Unemployment Stance
Apr 9, 2010
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Bergevin made the first move effectively replacing Max Pacioretty this summer with a young, offensive winger in Jonathan Drouin. In one season, Pacioretty is set to become a highly paid UFA that the Canadiens simply don't have the finances to fit into their future payroll. With the backbone of the Habs roster set for the foreseeable future, the one weakness that has haunted them has been at the center position. The trade return for Pacioretty at the 2018 Trade Deadline HAS TO return a quality center prospect. The example I provide here may not be entirely realistic, but mind you this is a ballpark of what they should be targeting IMO...

:blues
LW Max Pacioretty
:habs
C/RW Jordan Kyrou
2019 STL 1st Round Pick


The Habs acquire a high-end 19 year old prospect who has torn up the Ontario Hockey League and could potentially break into their top six in short order.

Heading into the off-season, they'll find themselves with a significant amount of cap space to address their roster needs as well as likely signing Phillip Danault to an extension. I believe with one shrewd trade and a few key free agent signings the Montreal Canadiens would be back in the playoff hunt next season.

:hawks
C/RW Andrew Shaw 3.9, 2022
LD Karl Alzner 4.625, 2022
:habs
RD Brent Seabrook 6.875, 2024
C Artem Anisimov 4.55, 2021

This deal is likely going to find little fanfare due to the Habs taking on yet another long-term deal to an aging veteran player, but its reasoning is fairly straight-forward. Shoring up the RD position (Weber-Petry-Seabrook) for the foreseeable future, which is substantial considering the lack of available options league-wide, and adding an established match-up center to replace Tomas Plekanec who leaves Montreal this summer as a UFA.

With those two trades the Canadiens would find themselves with greater depth at both the center position, which has been a weakness for them for a significant period, greater depth on defense with three significant options capable of playing all situations and some key futures without significantly depleting themselves in terms of depth...
 
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belair

Jay Woodcroft Unemployment Stance
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:habs

Jonathan Drouin - Paul Stastny (3yr, 6.0) - Brendan Gallagher
Alex Galchenyuk - Artem Anisimov - Jordan Kyrou
Artturi Lehkonen - Phillip Danault (5yr, 4.0) - Paul Byron
Nicholas Deslauriers (2yr, 1.6) - Byron Froese - XXXXXXXXXX
Charles Hudon

Victor Mete - Shea Weber
Jack Johnson (2yr, 4.5) - Jeff Petry
David Schlemko - Brent Seabrook
Jordie Benn - Jakub Jerebek

Carey Price
XXXXXXXXX
Heading into free agency, the Habs would have nearly $17m in cap space to fill the remaining holes on the roster. Since they've already got a significant amount of cap tied up in several long-term deals. The two players I've targeted here may be a bit unorthodox, but they'd be two quality impact players who they could likely grab without offering significant term. They could even afford to overpay if need be. Johnson would be a good compliment to Jeff Petry, a solid defensive defenseman, as Johnson is an adept puck-moving defender who has a bomb of a point shot. Stastny at 33 likely takes a 3 year term if it's a decent pay day and he fills the francophone quota in Montreal.

With those two signed the Habs still have roughly $5m in cap space to fill two minor holes either via UFA or from within the organization. But ultimately I see this as a deeper, veteran roster capable of matching up against an team in the Eastern Conference.

Thoughts?
 
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belair

Jay Woodcroft Unemployment Stance
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They definitely shouldn't sign Johnson, guy is not NHL caliber.
He looked OK last season in Columbus paired with David Savard. With Petry who's a decent two-way D, Johnson would make a good partner as a puck-moving option.
 
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MMC

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He looked OK last season in Columbus paired with David Savard. With Petry who's a decent two-way D, Johnson make a good partner as a puck-moving option.
At his best he's not better than Jordie Benn so its nonsensical to bench Benn to sign JJ.
 

Colt55

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You do realize blues are not trading prospects for rentals. Especially not Thomas kyrou Thompson kostin. Per dough armstrong. I would target aa or attar from detroit. Good luck with the rebuild
 

Twisted Sinister

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In my opinion, these are moves that are logistically possible, and the value seems fair(ish. Dunno how STL fans feel about that Kyrou+1st deal... Also don't know why anyone would want Alzner in any capacity).

On paper though, I'm not sure that team is much more than on the playoff bubble at best.
 

go4hockey

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Neither of the UFA’s you have inked into the lineup will sign those shot term deals. Just guessing both will want/get more term.
 

go4hockey

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In my opinion, these are moves that are logistically possible, and the value seems fair(ish. Dunno how STL fans feel about that Kyrou+1st deal... Also don't know why anyone would want Alzner in any capacity).

On paper though, I'm not sure that team is much more than on the playoff bubble at best.

I can tell you the Blues fans will hate that deal and are not interested in giving up the high end prospects they have as they are in positions of need.
 
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SakuKoivu11

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Jun 29, 2017
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You do know mtl is a cap team right? They are one of the richest team in the league. They can afford to resign Pacioretty if they want to.
 

lanceuppercut75

Registered User
Feb 20, 2016
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You could probably ask Chicago to add in a 2nd/3rd rounder to dump that brutal Seabrook contract.

Even if they say no, they'll probably give a 4th/5th/6th to meet you halfway.
 

Ricky Bobby

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Aug 31, 2008
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Habs have far too many holes to fix in one off-season.

Avs didn't just just get better overnight either. They got better largely on the back of MacKinnon, Landeskog, Ratanen being the best line in the league. Habs don't have those quality horses.

Habs need a few years to restock.
 

belair

Jay Woodcroft Unemployment Stance
Apr 9, 2010
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Neither of the UFA’s you have inked into the lineup will sign those shot term deals. Just guessing both will want/get more term.
I think Stastny falls into Eric Staal-esque buyer beware category come UFA time. He's a 33 year old come December and he didn't exactly light it up in St Louis. If you give the guy a contract with an AAV that starts with a number higher than five, he'll start taking years off the term IMO. Johnson's looking for money up front, so you might even convince him to take just a year. I'm obviously ball parking the cap number, too since there's never really much on the market in terms of defensemen.
 

belair

Jay Woodcroft Unemployment Stance
Apr 9, 2010
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Habs have far too many holes to fix in one off-season.

Avs didn't just just get better overnight either. They got better largely on the back of MacKinnon, Landeskog, Ratanen being the best line in the league. Habs don't have those quality horses.

Habs need a few years to restock.
They kinda did, actually. They sold on Duchene this year. Obviously it's the guys they already had pushing them forward. For Montreal, all it should really take is rejuvenating Carey Price's game considering the Atlantic Division is a bit of a toilet. IMO addressing the center position will go a long way to improve the team defensively as a unit.
 

Ricky Bobby

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Aug 31, 2008
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They kinda did, actually. They sold on Duchene this year. Obviously it's the guys they already had pushing them forward. For Montreal, all it should really take is rejuvenating Carey Price's game considering the Atlantic Division is a bit of a toilet. IMO addressing the center position will go a long way to improve the team defensively as a unit.

Point is the Avs had the elite youngsters. Elite youngsters the Habs don't come anywhere close to matching. Elite youngsters who they can build around for 5+ years.

If the Habs get a Vezina season out of Price and get back to the playoffs next year what's that even really accomplish? They aren't good enough to go deep in the playoffs. They're still set up to be a middle of the road team for a long time. They also won't get back there without Patches. But do they wanna just lose him for nothing for a single playoff run?
 

2020 Cup Champions

Formerly Sila v Kucherove
Nov 26, 2013
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I thought in previous years it was established around here that the NMC and NTC were separate clauses--this seems to imply, in any case, that the players cannot be moved before those NTCs kick in (seems to use language like "full NMC, M-NTC begins 201x").

From Capfriendly's page on Brent Seabrook (Brent Seabrook - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps):
CLAUSE DETAILS: Full NMC from 2016-17 to 2021-22. Modified NTC: submits a 5 team trade list in 2022-23; submits a 10 team trade list in 2023-24

Artem Anisimov(Artem Anisimov - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps):
CLAUSE DETAILS: Modified NTC: Starting 2018-19, Lists 10 teams that he can be traded to

What realistically gets them to waive whatever clauses they have and leave Chicago? Or have Montreal as one of the 5 or 10 teams?

The Blues probably need their center prospects as bad as anyone in the league considering how set they are elsewhere.

The Habs are in a tough spot here.
 

belair

Jay Woodcroft Unemployment Stance
Apr 9, 2010
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Point is the Avs had the elite youngsters. Elite youngsters the Habs don't come anywhere close to matching. Elite youngsters who they can build around for 5+ years.

If the Habs get a Vezina season out of Price and get back to the playoffs next year what's that even really accomplish? They aren't good enough to go deep in the playoffs. They're still set up to be a middle of the road team for a long time. They also won't get back there without Patches. But do they wanna just lose him for nothing for a single playoff run?
You don't think that roster could make up 6-7 wins on this year's team? Pacioretty is on this team and that's where they are. I don't think it's necessarily going to be him driving the bus anymore on the offense if they even were to pay him the $8m he's likely to ask for. Drouin is the Pacioretty replacement IMO.
 

Omar

Registered User
Oct 10, 2017
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You don't think that roster could make up 6-7 wins on this year's team? Pacioretty is on this team and that's where they are. I don't think it's necessarily going to be him driving the bus anymore on the offense if they even were to pay him the $8m he's likely to ask for. Drouin is the Pacioretty replacement IMO.
If you’re goal is to get 6-7 wins more to just make the playoffs, give up. This team needs to build towards a Cup not a perennial 8th place team.
 

belair

Jay Woodcroft Unemployment Stance
Apr 9, 2010
38,644
21,839
Canada
If you’re goal is to get 6-7 wins more to just make the playoffs, give up. This team needs to build towards a Cup not a perennial 8th place team.
It's not. My argument is that this roster is easily in the playoff conversation in their division. In relation the the Friedman quote, I think these moves effectively address the weaknesses of the Canadiens roster this season--it may not be perfect, there are still weaknesses--but they aren't as significant on paper as they have been this season. It also improves their future situation with the Pacioretty deal which is likely to occur regardless.

To build a Cup contender, you should probably get there first though. Building from the ground up isn't exactly a favorable option, which is the point I'm trying to convey here.
 

Aoko

Order has now fallen.
Dec 14, 2017
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I'm confused... isn't this entire section just a bunch of armchair GMs?
 

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