Are the Leafs a top 5 Stanley Cup contender going into next season?

[Hamilton Bulldogs]

Yes.

I’d put Avs, Oilers, Lightning and maybe the canes over them but nobody else.

 

[Face Of Bear]

I'd say they have the best odds of any team. So yea top 5 or #1.

 

[Connor McConnor]

I'm told losing in the 1st round is more important than reaching a conference finals. They also got a ton of respect in the handshake line. Gotta be top 5 then right?

All jokes aside, I have them in the 5-7 range.

 

[hockey20000]

top 10 no way there top 5... I don't care how good a reg season they have.. you can't be top 5 favorites when you can't even win one round for multiple years now when they should of atleast broke thru to a conference final once.

 

[Mr Positive]

Yes I have them there

Part of the issue is that there isn't a top 5. It's a top 2. The other contenders who I might be tempted to put other Toronto took a step back. It's really the playoff reputation that's holding the Leafs back and that's ultimately a small sample, so I wouldn't be too convinced of it.

 

[Mugzy97]

top 10 no way there top 5... I don't care how good a reg season they have.. you can't be top 5 favorites when you can't even win one round for multiple years now when they should of atleast broke thru to a conference final once.

Who is your top 5?

 

[wintersej]

I do think the "can't win a round" trope is super overrated. The Habs series, sure, but Boston and Tampa were elite teams. Once they get the monkey off their back, sky is the limit.

Well... goaltending is the limit.

 

[The90]

top 10 no way there top 5... I don't care how good a reg season they have.. you can't be top 5 favorites when you can't even win one round for multiple years now when they should of atleast broke thru to a conference final once.

Interesting (not really), how the bar for whether they can be taken serious is if they’ve been to a single conference final. Interesting

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

I'm told losing in the 1st round is more important than reaching a conference finals. They also got a ton of respect in the handshake line. Gotta be top 5 then right?

All jokes aside, I have them in the 5-7 range.

 

[ole ole]

Easily a top 3-5 team during the regular season.
Playoffs are a different beast.

 

[Karl Eriksson]

No, but easily top 10. Basically what they have been for a few years; one round and done.

 

[Panthaz89]

Not true. They are actually a pretty good playoff team. Better than most. Just not so great at close out games. A team that is soft and lacks character doesnt tske the lightning to the brink. If only Kerfoot and that puck had more character in ot in Game 6 on the breakaway. Suddenly the team would be full of character according to many.

Panthers took the Lightning to 7 2 years ago without Ekblad then lost to them 4-0 last year with Ekblad who cares how close a series was either you win or lose.

 

[Karl Eriksson]

Not true. They are actually a pretty good playoff team. Better than most. Just not so great at close out games. A team that is soft and lacks character doesnt tske the lightning to the brink. If only Kerfoot and that puck had more character in ot in Game 6 on the breakaway. Suddenly the team would be full of character according to many.

Really you could argue they won that round, and who knows how far they actually went. Maybe they won it all.

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

In the East? Sure.

That goaltending, defense and lack of depth is one hell of a hurdle to overcome

 

[McVespa99]

They are 2nd in odds in most betting sites. Though that may be influenced by fanbase which is more likely to bet on bad odds. I don't know how the oddsmakers make their odds, if it's just raw probability estimation and banking on the margins or are things like that included.

Things like that are more important than actual odds

 

[Video Nasty]

They’ll likely finish with a top 5 regular season record again, but until they can make it to at least the Conference Finals, they can’t be considered a serious contender.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

It’s rare but teams have won the Cup with bad goaltending before. I’m not sure that any team has ever won with a duo as bad as Murray/Samsonov have been for the last three years though. So while I think they could finish top 5 in the season and that they have a top contending team in every other position, I don’t think they’re one of the top five teams likely to go all the way because of their goaltending.

 

[Jumptheshark]

For those voting yes are also saying the oilers are

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

It’s rare but teams have won the Cup with bad goaltending before. I’m not sure that any team has ever won with a duo as bad as Murray/Samsonov have been for the last three years though. So while I think they could finish top 5 in the season and that they have a top contending team in every other position, I don’t think they’re one of the top five teams likely to go all the way because of their goaltending.

Kuemper's playoff performance this past playoffs, and Niemi's performance during the 2010 Hawks' Cup run come to mind.

And honestly, Fleury's performance in the 2009 Cup run was 50% great, 50% "bad goaltending". So obviously they needed that 50% great to win, but it wasn't like he gave them strong goaltending the entire run, or even the majority of it. Each series (other than the Carolina one) was basically 4 good games (the wins) and 3 bad games (the losses).

Leafs just have to hope Murray can re-find his game and stay healthy, the latter having the greatest effect on the former.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Kuemper's playoff performance this past playoffs, and Niemi's performance during the 2010 Hawks' Cup run come to mind.

And honestly, Fleury's performance in the 2009 Cup run was 50% great, 50% "bad goaltending". So obviously they needed that 50% great to win, but it wasn't like he gave them strong goaltending the entire run, or even the majority of it. Each series (other than the Carolina one) was basically 4 good games (the wins) and 3 bad games (the losses).

Leafs just have to hope Murray can re-find his game and stay healthy, the latter having the greatest effect on the former.

Those are probably the closest examples but I’m focusing on their regular season numbers. Niemi had a .912 save percentage the year the Hawks won the Cup which was really his first year playing even as a 1B. Another guy is Binnington but again this was his first year and he had a .927 save percentage that season. Kuemper’s last three years before the Cup win were .925, .928 and .907. And in the Cup year it was .921 Those are top 10 numbers even playing on Arizona.
I can’t think of a duo that had below .900 numbers as an average for the last 3 years and won the Cup.