When a guy is as touted as Lafreniere is for so long, has a long international history of being dominant and has a CHL player of the year before its even his draft year (amongst other accomplishments), theyre very hard to pass as the number one pick. Byfields size and skill have people saying he could challenge but I find it highly unlikely in the end. 100 point Byfield could happen but he probably does so in a lot of games because he probably wont play world juniors. Lafreniere will probably end up around 120 points with the world juniors thrown in.
I know people hope for some draft day drama and Byfield might be able to challenge him but the mountain he has to climb is ridiculous. Youre talking a draft-1 seaso CHL player of the year vs a guy who isnt even a point per game in junior right now
And they are almost a full year apart in age. Remember, last year was Byfield's first year in the OHL and played the entire year at the age of 16; last year was Lafreniere's second year in the QMJHL and played nearly the entire season at the age of 17.
Normally I hate the age or service time debate, but when they are synchronized as they are in this case, I think it is a legitimate talking point.
Age 16 seasons:
Lafreniere, LW, QMJHL, 60gp 42g/38a/80p = 1.333 P/GP
Byfield, C, OHL, 64gp 29g/32a/61p = 0.953 P/GP
Considering the positional premium of Byfield, I think you are talking about Lafreniere being ahead, but it's not nearly as great as some people would suggest. If Byfield has a season that's in the same breath as Lafreniere's in 2018-19, I have no problem making this a 1A/1B assessment. But, the impetus is obviously Byfield's play; if he doesn't blow up, I think we maintain a pretty clear draft day favorite in Lafreniere.