#/Analysis of Larkin: Stacking up to 1C's very well

[deca guard]

so only points matter ? how bout maybe being able to shut down opponant centers mattering ??????????? as in having this capabilty which some other higher point centerman dont have boosts larkys rating up because having this capability GREATLY helps his team

 

[raymond23]

Are there any stats out there for scoring chances created? Would be interested to see where Larkin ranks there.

 

[Bench]

Players love playing.

This is the kind of wisdom you only find from guys who understand competitive hockey broomball.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

This is the kind of wisdom you only find from guys who understand competitive hockey broomball.

 

[Henkka]

14th ranked on these metrics:

Tableau Public

I like these merged different statistics, because nowadays you can pick one certain statistc and make one argument based on it. Then pick another statistic and make a counter argument. You can put any player look bad and whine about him or vise versa. Combined bigger stat pack is everything.

I potted out Centers only from that rank.

1. McDavid
2. MacKnnon
3. Crosby
4. Bergeron
5. Aho
6. Tavares
7. Matthews
8. Stamkos
9. Point
10. Eichel
11. Monahan
12. Draisaitl
13. Seguin
14. Larkin
15. Hertl
16. Barkov
17. Couturier
18. Krejci
19. Couture
20. Malkin

Rank Is Based On:
Goals Created Per Game = ((.75*Goals Scored)+(.7*Primary Assists)+(.55*Secondary Assists)+(.075*Shots Taken)+(.05*Blocked Shots)+(.01*(Faceoffs Won-Faceoffs Lost)+(.15*(Penalties Drawn-Penalties Taken))+(.15*(5v5 Goals On Ice For - Against))+(.05*(5v5 Corsi For - Corsi Against)))/3

This was based on last season only. No relative things, pure production with some weighing of values. Would like to prefer merging multiple season's. Also smaller sample sizes are not working at their best there.

Ps.

I don't like this ranking system at all for defencemen, because it's mostly offence-based. But tells very much about forwards and their main duty: Offence.

 

[Flowah]

Of course we aren't elite, we are garbo. Wait until him (he's only 23 ffs) and everyone else gets close to their potential/keeps improving.

I was responding to the guys who said they don't mind Larkin as 1C. I *do* mind.

St. Louis winning with O’Reilly doesn’t change your mind on this at all?

Not really. It's hockey. It's the most random of the major sports. I'm not saying it's impossible to win with Larkin as our 1C. I just don't think it's very likely, moreso than it already is for any elite team.

*Maybe* if we had some real center depth but it goes Larkin and then, at least as of now, drops off a cliff. Nielsen, Glendening, Filppula, AA? If we had 2 Larkins I'd feel much better about it.

So I'll amend my statement. I mind Larkin as our 1C only if we don't get another guy damn close to Larkin's level. As of right now who are those guys? We only have projections of people, like Veleno, in our pipeline who we hope become that good.

14th ranked on these metrics:

Man... I don't know about any ranking system that puts Mac above Crosby, incredible though he is, along with Malkin and Barkov that low.

Obviously it's a list of incredible players and it's fantastic that Larkin is on it.

 

[Gniwder]

14th ranked on these metrics:

Tableau Public

I like these merged different statistics, because nowadays you can pick one certain statistc and make one argument based on it. Then pick another statistic and make a counter argument. You can put any player look bad and whine about him or vise versa. Combined bigger stat pack is everything.

I potted out Centers only from that rank.

1. McDavid
2. MacKnnon
3. Crosby
4. Bergeron
5. Aho
6. Tavares
7. Matthews
8. Stamkos
9. Point
10. Eichel
11. Monahan
12. Draisaitl
13. Seguin
14. Larkin
15. Hertl
16. Barkov
17. Couturier
18. Krejci
19. Couture
20. Malkin



This was based on last season only. No relative things, pure production with some weighing of values. Would like to prefer merging multiple season's. Also smaller sample sizes are not working at their best there.

Ps.

I don't like this ranking system at all for defencemen, because it's mostly offence-based. But tells very much about forwards and their main duty: Offence.

...and the Caps won the Cup 2 seasons ago and don't have a single guy on the list.

I don't care if it's a center or a winger, but I think the team needs an elite scorer. The team also needs scoring depth, but I think that's coming with Veleno, Raz, Zadina, Svehc, etc.

I have no issues with Larkin as 1C, I think he's better than Backstrom or Kuz, and I'm a Caps fan. I'd trade either straight up for Larkin without any hesitation, with salary retention to make the salaries equal.

 

[obey86]

You can't manipulate points/60.
It's a black and white metric.
There's virtually no way in hell Larkin was the best player on the ice surface for 40 games if the Wings lost so often, or if he ends up a "minus player" (even after all those PK goals).

But Larkin is a horse. And he's a gamer who keeps rounding his game to form.

Hogwash. Barkov was a minus player last year. Even the great McDavid was barely a positive player (+3)

There are 4 other skaters on the ice at all times when Larkin is out there 5v5. The defensive group he played with was among the worst in the league. He can't carry an entire team.

 

[Henkka]

I don't care if it's a center or a winger, but I think the team needs an elite scorer. The team also needs scoring depth, but I think that's coming with Veleno, Raz, Zadina, Svehc, etc.

Yeah, at least one Elite scorer is needed, only Larkin and Mantha filled those spots as a 1st line player.

And only Athanasiou and Bertuzzi filled spots as 2nd line player (vs. NHL average).

Hirose was the nearest scoring talent for 3rd line.

Mantha - Larkin - XXX1 (Nyquist also ended with a ranking for a 1st liner)
Athanasiou - XXX2 - Bertuzzi
Hirose - XXX3 - XXX4 (Vanek was at 3rd line level, Nielsen borderline)

XXX1 = Lafreniere or other 2020 draftee
XXX2 = Veleno
XXX3 = ? Rasmussen ?
XXX4 = Zadina

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Yeah, at least one Elite scorer is needed, only Larkin and Mantha filled those spots as a 1st line player.

And only Athanasiou and Bertuzzi filled spots as 2nd line player (vs. NHL average).

Hirose was the nearest scoring talent for 3rd line.

Mantha - Larkin - XXX1 (Nyquist also ended with a ranking for a 1st liner)
Athanasiou - XXX2 - Bertuzzi
Hirose - XXX3 - XXX4 (Vanek was at 3rd line level, Nielsen borderline)

XXX1 = Lafreniere or other 2020 draftee
XXX2 = Veleno
XXX3 = ? Rasmussen ?
XXX4 = Zadina

XXX1 = Zadina (man he better with us passing on Hughes)
XXX2 = Byfield or just 1A and 1B with Captain Larks.
XXX3 = Veleno
XXX4 = Rasmussen

I am not sure Hirose is quite as good as his play indicated last year, felt he was tailing off a bit but understand those point to 7 points. Might be a Cory Conacher type from early in Yzerman's run that he pulls the shoot on for value. I mean you also have Svech, Mastrosimone, Berggren, probably Phillips and other chasing. We will see, I also wouldn't be surprised if we are only keeping one of Athanasiou and Mantha depending on the figures they currently want in negotiations.

We won't likely go that young, but I think we have enough pieces up front to manipulate some deals and shift them around. The assets acquired up front make this interesting.

I am very curious to see where Rasmussen and Svech are at. I know people have lost a little faith, but I still think they can be prominent in this picture. Adjustments young players make are important, though both start in GR, I see them in front of a player like Hirose still in terms of importance.We will see though, he has hockey sense. Training camp should be fascinating to see where all these guys are at there are jobs. Erne also could put it together in Detroit, we have options up front we just don't have on the back-end and goalie.

You also have to wonder who becomes a Seattle player at some point.

 

[roman star]

theres the zadina over bouchard/hughes . bergren over wilde . rasmussen over necas. seider over about 10 guys . all nightmares weve got to deal with in our sleep and waking hours

 

[Gniwder]

Hirose - XXX3 - XXX4 (Vanek was at 3rd line level, Nielsen borderline)

Nielsen's stats were borderline because he got stuck playing with guys who can't score, Helm, LGD, and Abby. That line looked pretty good with Hirose and Vanek, can't expect 3rd liner stats playing with 4th line defensive specialists and whatever the heck Abby is.

I am not sure Hirose is quite as good as his play indicated last year, felt he was tailing off a bit but understand those point to 7 points.

The points fell off as soon as LGD got injured and Helm wound up on the 2nd line. (Same problem as above.) I have doubts about his defensive abilities, but none about his offensive. He's got tremendous vision and hockey IQ. Even LGD can score when Hirose is on the ice. If he gets dropped down to 3rd line with Nielsen, that'll become one of the better scoring 3rd line in the league.


Gotta say Helm was one of my favorite players when he was 4th/3rd line center, not so much anymore. Hate to turn on the guy but he's not even good defensively anymore. I wouldn't be surprised if this is his last NHL contract. The only player he ever looked good with was Gus, says a lot about Gus' hockey IQ and passing ability...

 

[Pavels Dog]

Hogwash. Barkov was a minus player last year. Even the great McDavid was barely a positive player (+3)

There are 4 other skaters on the ice at all times when Larkin is out there 5v5. The defensive group he played with was among the worst in the league. He can't carry an entire team.

Larkin being a -6 on a team with a GD of -50, while being the guy that gets the biggest minutes against the best opponents, is very impressive.

 

[odin1981]

Larkin is gonna be our Bergeron when he tops out and would anyone try and say he isn't a 2 way #1 center?

 

[MBH]

This is the kind of wisdom you only find from guys who understand competitive hockey broomball.

I don't play competitive broomball, bench.
Once a year, maybe.

But that's a weak reply, man.

 

[MBH]

Larkin is gonna be our Bergeron when he tops out and would anyone try and say he isn't a 2 way #1 center?

"gonna be" vs "is"
I would love for Larkin to be our Bergeron.
Or Veleno.

 

[MBH]

I am not sure Hirose is quite as good as his play indicated last year, felt he was tailing off a bit but understand those point to 7 points. Might be a Cory Conacher type from early in Yzerman's run that he pulls the shoot on for value. I mean you also have Svech, Mastrosimone, Berggren, probably Phillips and other chasing. We will see, I also wouldn't be surprised if we are only keeping one of Athanasiou and Mantha depending on the figures they currently want in negotiations.

We won't likely go that young, but I think we have enough pieces up front to manipulate some deals and shift them around. The assets acquired up front make this interesting.

I am very curious to see where Rasmussen and Svech are at. I know people have lost a little faith, but I still think they can be prominent in this picture. Adjustments young players make are important, though both start in GR, I see them in front of a player like Hirose still in terms of importance.We will see though, he has hockey sense. Training camp should be fascinating to see where all these guys are at there are jobs. Erne also could put it together in Detroit, we have options up front we just don't have on the back-end and goalie.

You also have to wonder who becomes a Seattle player at some point.

Hirose 37% CF.
Lots of assists on goals that required ridiculous individual efforts by the goal scorer.
Can you say unsustainable?

I saw things I liked from him.
But anyone who watched those games knows he was nowhere near as good as his point totals.

As for Svech and Rasmussen. The Svech we saw in 2018 was better than the Rasmussen we saw in 2019.
Better skater. More productive.

 

[NickH8]

theres the zadina over bouchard/hughes . bergren over wilde . rasmussen over necas. seider over about 10 guys . all nightmares weve got to deal with in our sleep and waking hours

Your hindsight would make you a great scout, eh?
Zadina and Berggren were both highly rated and were considered steals. Rasmussen has played more NHL games than any of the guys people say we should have taken over him. It's way too early to say anything about Seider. You're either new to following the draft or a troll if you don't understand how random the draft is outside of the top 5.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Your hindsight would make you a great scout, eh?
Zadina and Berggren were both highly rated and were considered steals. Rasmussen has played more NHL games than any of the guys people say we should have taken over him. It's way too early to say anything about Seider. You're either new to following the draft or a troll if you don't understand how random the draft is outside of the top 5.

I shouldn't have gone there, he/she was right.

I just think Zadina better wind up a first liner, we had a higher rating on him than Andrei Svechnikov from what I have heard. I really did like his pro season a lot more than most. I saw gains in a lot of the areas Zadina needed to work on to become a better player long-term. Excited to see where he is at in camp. I know @Frk It bangs this drum a lot, but his playmaking is pretty underrated and that should improve at the next level with more talent.... Not that he should keep saying that out loud. If he is in GR to start I expect his stay to be brief, but he should put his head down and go to work if it happens. It should be easier this year as he would likely be on a line with first round talents on it if he is down there.

 

[TheMule93]

My biggest issue with zadina last season is that he seemed like a passenger waiting for plays to come to him, rather than him trying to drive the bus himself.

He's certainly talented enough to be a driver, I hope he can make it work.

Note that this is based on my limited viewings on him, which include training camp, preseason, a few AHL games, and his short stint on Detroit last spring.

 

[HisNoodliness]

I shouldn't have gone there, he/she was right.

I just think Zadina better wind up a first liner, we had a higher rating on him than Andrei Svechnikov from what I have heard. I really did like his pro season a lot more than most. I saw gains in a lot of the areas Zadina needed to work on to become a better player long-term. Excited to see where he is at in camp. I know @Frk It bangs this drum a lot, but his playmaking is pretty underrated and that should improve at the next level with more talent.... Not that he should keep saying that out loud. If he is in GR to start I expect his stay to be brief, but he should put his head down and go to work if it happens. It should be easier this year as he would likely be on a line with first round talents on it if he is down there.

I'm not sure if I'm convinced Zadina is ready because that's the truth or I just want to watch him in Detroit, but I'm convinced Zadina is ready.

I like the point about his playmaking. Zadina has an elite shot and that's what stands out at first, but what defines his game is that he's good enough at everything else that you can't treat him like a shooting threat alone. Do that and he'll burn you with his hands or playmaking.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

I'm not sure if I'm convinced Zadina is ready because that's the truth or I just want to watch him in Detroit, but I'm convinced Zadina is ready.

I like the point about his playmaking. Zadina has an elite shot and that's what stands out at first, but what defines his game is that he's good enough at everything else that you can't treat him like a shooting threat alone. Do that and he'll burn you with his hands or playmaking.

He needs to get better at realizing how quickly guys can close space at the pro level though. He gets rocked a little too often for my liking because of this. I think because of some of the young guys in the league we forget that it is still a few years development for most normal guys. I have no concerns about Zadina as a top 6 winger, I just really am hoping for a Pasta type or superstar player and I have never been completely sold on him hitting that level. Brock Boeser is another kind of possibility I guess. We will see.

These guys still have a lot of runaway. Of course one of the fun things if he could be a Pasta type, is Larkin is already a Bergeron type so I have seen how that fits if both guys maximize themselves. But they still have plenty of growing to do to get there, but the ceilings exist for sure in my opinion.

Given that he might be on a line with Svech/Ras - Veleno if he is beaten out for the NHL in GR it isn't the same picture there either for me. I do expect him to play a lot in Detroit this year, I won't meltdown if he isn't there opening night. I think he will be, but it depends on the gains he has made this summer and the gains those other guys have made. We are going to have a lot of competition in our training camp this year.

Finding who fits with Larkin and who fits with Veleno who I think are pretty similar will be interesting. I think Ras - Veleno - Zadina could work long-term as a grouping.

 

[deca guard]

ive criticized zadina not becauseof his talent but because of his penchant for skating around like a fool not aware hes being hunted . that scares me because thats basic common sense survival logic that you should have since a kid . hopefully hes just been so physically dominant growing up in europe that he got used to letting his guard down out there and last season was a wake up call and he now fully engages his survival instincts

 

[JoesuffP]

I don’t really understand analytics but it’s encouraging to see. For me, just from watching Larkin I wouldn’t call him good defensively yet. He’s shown improvement and the effort is definitely there. Right now his D game is mostly relentless back-checking. He needs to be smarter positionally and more crafty with his stick. He also needs to cut back on the penalties a lot. If he figures this out without sacrificing offense he’s a true #1 all day

 

[Fil Larkmanthanasiou]

His stats would look even better playing for a coach who is not a moron.