Chojin
Tiny Panger...
- Apr 6, 2011
- 4,301
- 573
The 2012-2013 NHL schedule is quite different from the original schedule structure. The biggest change, aside from the elimination of inter-conference games, is that teams play an un-even number of games against divisional opponents. For example, the Blues play the Wings and Hawks five times apiece, while they only play the Predators an Jackets four times. Since the Blues have one less game against the worst team in the league last season, the Blue Jackets, one could say that they have a slightly more difficult schedule than those that do. The question is how to quantify this effect.
I settled on comparing the difficulty of the current season as compared to the previous one via mean opponent points percentage, or MOPP. This is the average points percentage for a team's opponents in a season, weighted by the number of games against each team. To get a better idea of how the shortened schedule affects each time, I compared the relative change in MOPP between the 2012-2013 season and a regular 82-game season, minus any inter-conference games. Obviously, this is not an ideal measure of team quality; it ignores head-to-head matchups and any offseason improvements, among other factors. But I still think that tracking the change in MOPP provides some insight into how the shortened season affects competitive balance.
I wrote a python script to scrape schedule and standings data from the www.nhl.com, then calulate the change in MOPP. Here are the results (note that the more positive the change, the more difficult the schedule):
Winners
Colorado, Nashville, Detroit, Montreal, and New Jersey are the biggest beneficiaries of the new schedule. This is typically due to easy divisional matchups; for example, Colorado plays Minnesota and Edmonton five times each, both of whom were among the worst teams in the West.
Losers
Calgary and Chicago are the recipients of the biggest increases in difficulty, followed by Winnipeg, Philadelphia, and Boston. Calgary has to play Vancouver five times, and poor Chicago has to play the top teams in the Central Division five times as well.
EDIT: I didn't hear anything from a mod on this yet, so I'll assume it's OK if I link to the code I used for this analysis: https://github.com/thesquelched/nhl-season-judge
I settled on comparing the difficulty of the current season as compared to the previous one via mean opponent points percentage, or MOPP. This is the average points percentage for a team's opponents in a season, weighted by the number of games against each team. To get a better idea of how the shortened schedule affects each time, I compared the relative change in MOPP between the 2012-2013 season and a regular 82-game season, minus any inter-conference games. Obviously, this is not an ideal measure of team quality; it ignores head-to-head matchups and any offseason improvements, among other factors. But I still think that tracking the change in MOPP provides some insight into how the shortened season affects competitive balance.
I wrote a python script to scrape schedule and standings data from the www.nhl.com, then calulate the change in MOPP. Here are the results (note that the more positive the change, the more difficult the schedule):
Code:
2012-2013 NHL Schedule Difficulty by Team (easiest to hardest)
Team Relative Change in MOPP (lower is easier)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Montréal -0.434 %
New Jersey -0.378 %
Washington -0.191 %
Pittsburgh -0.160 %
Toronto -0.130 %
Florida -0.103 %
NY Islanders -0.099 %
Carolina -0.072 %
Tampa Bay -0.043 %
Buffalo +0.058 %
Ottawa +0.177 %
NY Rangers +0.250 %
Boston +0.341 %
Philadelphia +0.392 %
Winnipeg +0.407 %
Colorado -0.565 %
Nashville -0.533 %
Detroit -0.442 %
Anaheim -0.202 %
Dallas -0.175 %
San Jose -0.132 %
Minnesota -0.132 %
Vancouver +0.000 %
Edmonton +0.129 %
Columbus +0.184 %
Los Angeles +0.250 %
Phoenix +0.265 %
St. Louis +0.294 %
Chicago +0.481 %
Calgary +0.574 %Winners
Colorado, Nashville, Detroit, Montreal, and New Jersey are the biggest beneficiaries of the new schedule. This is typically due to easy divisional matchups; for example, Colorado plays Minnesota and Edmonton five times each, both of whom were among the worst teams in the West.
Losers
Calgary and Chicago are the recipients of the biggest increases in difficulty, followed by Winnipeg, Philadelphia, and Boston. Calgary has to play Vancouver five times, and poor Chicago has to play the top teams in the Central Division five times as well.
EDIT: I didn't hear anything from a mod on this yet, so I'll assume it's OK if I link to the code I used for this analysis: https://github.com/thesquelched/nhl-season-judge
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