Cost uncertainty is one reason for the Indians to trade right-hander Trevor Bauer rather than Corey Kluber or Carlos Carrasco. Bauer’s appeal to clubs heavy into analytics is another. He turns 28 on Jan. 17, approaches his craft intellectually and is still trending upward.
Carrasco will pitch next season at 32, Kluber at 33. Carrasco is the most affordable, earning $9.75 million in 2019 with a $10.25 million club option in ’20. Kluber will earn $17 million in 2019 with club options of $17.5 million in ’20 and $18 million in ’21 (his three straight top-three Cy Young finishes triggered escalators in his original contract).
Bauer, with two years of arbitration remaining before he becomes a free agent, has said repeatedly he will not sign an extension, preferring to go year to year. MLBTradeRumors projects he will earn $11.6 million in arbitration next season. His number the following year might approach $20 million. The Indians cannot be sure.
Any team that acquired Bauer would inherit the same questions, but clubs today crave surplus value — a player’s worth, based upon Wins Above Replacement, beyond his salary. Bauer, even as he grows more expensive, offers the greatest upside, and perhaps the greatest chance for surplus value among the three available Indians starters.
