Blue Jays Discussion: Almost time for real baseball

[hockeywiz542]

 

[Discoverer]

That Smoak article on Fangraphs is really interesting. It's amazing how he can be so close to some of the top hitters in the game and be so bad.

It's also kind of amazing that so many regimes have obviously seen something more there and given him a chance.

Just like the batted ball stuff with Morales, I would love to see if any of that data has historically been predictive of pending breakouts.

 

[zeke]

That Smoak article on Fangraphs is really interesting. It's amazing how he can be so close to some of the top hitters in the game and be so bad.

It's also kind of amazing that so many regimes have obviously seen something more there and given him a chance.

Just like the batted ball stuff with Morales, I would love to see if any of that data has historically been predictive of pending breakouts.

heheh.

2012: http://twoseam.blogspot.ca/2012/06/justin-smoak-is-probably-highly-touted.html?m=1

2012: http://seattle.sbnation.com/2012/2/15/2800797/seattle-mariners-justin-smoak-breakout-candidate

2012: http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/pag...potential-breakout-stars-top-500-mlb-rankings

2013: http://baseball.realgm.com/wiretap/34365/Justin-Smoak-Primed-For-Breakout-Season

2014: http://rotoprofessor.com/baseball/?p=21655

2015: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-xhrfb-rate-underachievers/

2016: https://www.google.ca/amp/s/glovepo...pherals-domingo-santana-and-justin-smoak/amp/

 

[Mach85]

That Smoak article on Fangraphs is really interesting. It's amazing how he can be so close to some of the top hitters in the game and be so bad.

It's also kind of amazing that so many regimes have obviously seen something more there and given him a chance.

Just like the batted ball stuff with Morales, I would love to see if any of that data has historically been predictive of pending breakouts.

I would love to see what teams have on the predictive validity of these things too. And what the Jays have on Smoak. But it's tough, partly because Statcast data is so new and partly because teams keep things under wraps through proprietary data (maybe one of us can get a job with the Cards). I guess the longer Smoak goes putting up clearly inferior numbers, the more he just looks like an exception in the group in question.

 

[hockeywiz542]

at six-foot-four and 220 pounds, he’s formidable at the plate, though leaner than a year ago. During his breakout season at double-a new hampshire in 2016, tellez hit .297 and finished in the top 10 in the league in hits (130, tied for 10th), home runs (23, tied for fifth), rbis (81, sixth) and ops (.917, fifth). He is likely destined for triple-a buffalo come april. As a member of the jays’ 40-man roster, he gets to spend the beginning of the spring in the major league camp and the california native is determined to leave a impression.

“i’m going to go out there and work as hard as i can and leave everything up to the people who make those decisions,†tellez said. “i’m going to be the best person, the best teammate off the field, and when the time comes, the time comes. I can only control what i can control. How hard i take my at bats. How hard i play defence. How smart i play.

“i want to show them that i’m ready when they are. If it’s one pitch in one game, i’ll be there. If they need me for a long time, i’ll be there too.â€

since he is still just 21, he won’t be rushed by blue jays management. Any promotions to the big leagues will depend on how he handles the next level. Some of it may depend on the performance and injury status of others on the big roster. It wouldn’t be a shock, however, if tellez earns at least a taste with the jays at some point this season, especially in september when the rosters expand.

As atkins acknowledged on monday, the timing will take care of itself, meaning there may come a point where tellez won’t be able to be held back any longer.

“he’s been phenomenal,†atkins said. “the biggest thing with rowdy is he focuses on the work in a very authentic way. He focuses on little things like base running. He focuses on being a better teammate on a daily basis, and he’s 21. That’s unusual."

“then you factor in his power, plate discipline, a very solid defensie approach with his age … it’s all very encouraging.â€

 

[Paladin2799]

Why on earth would you sign a bench guy to a two or three year deal you hope might be able to get his **** together? He's just not that good. He started strong and just went downhill from there. Remember jpa's first MLB game with the Jays? That was exciting and then reality started to set in. He's Canadian and I couldn't give less of a **** about that. We have better options already on the team. Most I offer is a mlc with an invite to camp

Because lawrie could possibly explode and be a regular starter for this team if he puts it together. I don't think Toronto could lose in a deal here. Were not signing him for 10+m a year, he wants a few mil to play. Give him a couple year deal and if he sucks sink him into the minors and waive him.

 

[theaub]

So you want a team on a payroll budget to potentially just blow, let's say, $4M per year over 2 years on a guy who they'll just waive and eat the money on?

You know who else might put it together? Justin Smoak. Is that a good contract?

 

[TOGuy14]

Off topic but curious to see what Ryan Dempster looks like pitching at the WBC, guy hasn't thrown competitively in years now.

 

[GoonieFace]

Because lawrie could possibly explode and be a regular starter for this team if he puts it together. I don't think Toronto could lose in a deal here. Were not signing him for 10+m a year, he wants a few mil to play. Give him a couple year deal and if he sucks sink him into the minors and waive him.

Until the first time he gets jacked up and separates Donaldson's shoulder after a home run celebration.

 

[phillipmike]

Off topic but curious to see what Ryan Dempster looks like pitching at the WBC, guy hasn't thrown competitively in years now.

Him and Gagne. Gagne should be very interesting especially since he is attempting a comeback.

Until the first time he gets jacked up and separates Donaldson's shoulder after a home run celebration.

I was thinking he jumps on Morales other leg.

 

[zeke]

So you want a team on a payroll budget to potentially just blow, let's say, $4M per year over 2 years on a guy who they'll just waive and eat the money on?

You know who else might put it together? Justin Smoak. Is that a good contract?

i'd say lawrie would be cheaper, fewer years, and much better value.

 

[Silver91]

i'd say lawrie would be cheaper, fewer years, and much better value.

Honestly, if he was willing to take a MiL contract and play corner OF, I'd give him a shot to see if he could become our super utility guy. But if he's looking at a guaranteed contract, right now I'm not sure I'd give him more than $2M max, on a one year deal. While I think it's possible he's changed, he just got cut from his last team and has too much baggage for me to invest very much in him. Plus, for him, if he comes on a one year deal, and does well, it's probably better for him next November anyways.

 

[inthe6ix]

Barney doesn't get enough love around here. Guy is a solid multi-position player who can hit decently. We don't need Lawrie to disrupt team chemistry who will likely ***** about coming off the bench.

 

[AllDay28]

nothing suggests Lawrie is better value than Smoak btw. Nothing. Below avg WRC+, negative defense. I dont get the love. Move past the fact he's Canadian who cares. If a dreadful team like Chicago cant use him, why would we suddenly?

 

[Kurtz]

Barney doesn't get enough love around here. Guy is a solid multi-position player who can hit decently. We don't need Lawrie to disrupt team chemistry who will likely ***** about coming off the bench.

We love having Barney around and he's not part of the conversation because he's a lock to make the team already.

The question then is, would you rather take one of Smoak/Goins or Lawrie?

Given how brittle Travis and Tulo are...and that we really could use a legit backup 3B so JD doesn't have to play 160 games in the field (many of them injured), the case for the versatile Lawrie is quite compelling.

The alternative is Goins...but I don't think anyone really wants to see Goins make the opening day roster...which as of now, he probably will (as Travis may not be ready for opening day).

Then there's Smoak...and one really wonders what possible reason there is to carry Smoak on your major league roster, when Pearce is confined to 1B at the moment due to his arm issues, and when Morales is a capable backup at 1B.

 

[Kurtz]

nothing suggests Lawrie is better value than Smoak btw. Nothing.

Smoak has a cumulative fWar of 0.3 over his 824 career games. Lawrie has a cumulative 9.7 fWar over his career 588 games. Lawrie is 3 years younger, and can presumably be had on a very cheap 1 year deal.

 

[phillipmike]

I thought about that too but with Travis unlikely to start Opening Day, Donaldson's injury. Smoak at 1B and some variation of Upton and Carrera in LF i think there could be 1-4 spots for Lawrie to help the team. Barney would be my 1st choice at 2B if Travis is hurt and if Donaldson needs a break at 3B then you are probably looking at Goins at 3B. Or plan B is Pearce at 2B and Barney at 3B which is better but i dont think Pearce would be ready to play 2B. I think Lawrie is good insurance at 3B and MAYBE 1B/DH which brings me to my next point.

Part of the reason why i think Lawrie fell off a bit since the Jays is because he was moved between 2B and 3B. This is me talking out loud with no evidence of anything but he doesnt have a 2B body type or perhaps the want to play 2B. I see him as a 3B and a 3B only but was a team guy and played 2B. Some guys can embrace the super-utility role and Lawrie has the athleticism to play multiple positions but i question his want to play multiple positions whether conscious or subconscious. With no evidence behind it i think Lawrie is a player who plays better when he plays one position and can focus on that one position, 3B (i think something similar happened to Edwin when he moved from 3B to 1B). Less time trying to practice your position and more time in the batting cages. Playing a defensive position could affect a player's hitting and i think Lawrie is one of those guys. Not to mention more was asked of him when he was moved to Oakland and Chicago (worse lineups) as he hit higher vs the Jays were less pressure was on him and hit lower. With the exception of 2014, Lawrie hit better as a 3B vs 2B and hit better in better lineups where he was lower. Maybe he was asked to try to be more of a power bat since the Jays because he was in worse lineups and just completely failed hence the increase in K%.

Not perfect conclusions to draw upon but Lawrie more or less hits better when he plays 3B, plays in better lineups and has better defense at 3B. That being said if i am him i try to find a place that can play me a bulk or ideally all my games at 3B which likely means i dont think the best spot for him is the Jays. Still think the Mets are the best spot for him. Reyes is better suited in the middle infield and minimal 3B if needed.

 

[phillipmike]

nothing suggests Lawrie is better value than Smoak btw. Nothing. Below avg WRC+, negative defense. I dont get the love. Move past the fact he's Canadian who cares. If a dreadful team like Chicago cant use him, why would we suddenly?

Smoak is being graded at playing 1B vs Lawrie at 2B and 3B. If Lawrie played 1B his defense would be graded much better than Smoak or conversely Smoak's would be worse if he played 2B/3B.

Not matter who you shake it Lawrie has been the better player than Smoak in the past and not suggests that likely wont happen again this season.

 

[The Nemesis]

Not a great inning for Happ. Looks like 2014 Happ instead of 2016 Happ.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[zeke]

nothing suggests Lawrie is better value than Smoak btw. Nothing. Below avg WRC+, negative defense. I dont get the love. Move past the fact he's Canadian who cares. If a dreadful team like Chicago cant use him, why would we suddenly?

everything does, actually.

He's smoak with the bat, but with actual defensive and baserunning value.

 

[The Nemesis]

Aaaaaand nobody covering 1st base. Yep, it's spring training alright.

 

[zeke]

travis is depressing me.

 

[Bjorn Le]

Getting beat up by Canadian minor leaguers anonymous and Freddie Freeman. Not sure if I should be happy.

 

[Eyedea]

Smoak is being graded at playing 1B vs Lawrie at 2B and 3B. If Lawrie played 1B his defense would be graded much better than Smoak or conversely Smoak's would be worse if he played 2B/3B.

Not matter who you shake it Lawrie has been the better player than Smoak in the past and not suggests that likely wont happen again this season.

Not factually true