Prospect Info: Alexander Holtz (Part II)

[Triumph]

not every prospect is the same. Not every prospect is Dawson Mercer or Zach Parise who start out on the 4th line and work their way up the lineup.

Holtz has a very specific skillset and he needs to be put in the right scenarios to succeed. Yes, he thus far has not been good enough, but he has also not been done any favors. If you are expecting him to "work his way up the lineup" by playing him on the 4th line with Mike McLeod nightly, then you might as well just trade him now because that is not what his skillset is best suited for.

I am not saying to hand him anything. Just for him to be put in better positions to succeed.

I'm tired of this narrative about him playing with McLeod - he played for 20 minutes with McLeod. He was really not used on the 4th line very often.

I also don't think he is a bad fit with McLeod but whatever, people will see what they want to see.

 

[devilsblood]

not every prospect is the same. Not every prospect is Dawson Mercer or Zach Parise who start out on the 4th line and work their way up the lineup.

Holtz has a very specific skillset and he needs to be put in the right scenarios to succeed. Yes, he thus far has not been good enough, but he has also not been done any favors. If you are expecting him to "work his way up the lineup" by playing him on the 4th line with Mike McLeod nightly, then you might as well just trade him now because that is not what his skillset is best suited for.

I am not saying to hand him anything. Just for him to be put in better positions to succeed.

The fact that he is awful if not put in the perfect scenario is a sign that he is not good. His skill set is just too specific.

And he had lousy numbers with good players too. So him playing 30 minutes this year with McLeod is not the issue.

Needs to be better. Especially in those area's that allows guys to succeed on 3rd lines.

 

[Lou Bloom]

I don't care about maximizing the value of every player, that isn't the goal. The Devils' window is open now. They have no immediate NHL roster needs but they don't have infinite resources. Injuries will happen. Maybe Holtz can win a spot even without injuries. Again, if he wants out, fine, I wouldn't blame him. He still represents a huge need on this team and Toffoli may walk next offseason.

It’s about role and fit. You can find players relatively cheap who can be solid NHL players in a bottom 6 role, and it’s very possible one of those players could be a more impactful role player than Holtz. Stashing a recent 7th overall pick as a depth piece in his D+4 season, when you can find cheap depth around the league is bad roster management.

 

[devilsblood]

Again, if he wants out, fine, I wouldn't blame him. He still represents a huge need on this team and Toffoli may walk next offseason.

If the Devils are looking out and seeing Holtz in the mix next next year, they need to express that to Holtz, while also guiding him as to where he needs to improve.

From his perspective, as a high pick, it might suck that he's still in the AHL(assuming he is this year) but he's all of 21, there is still plenty of time for him. So if he wants out, and we would rather not, then he just needs to suck it up.

 

[Triumph]

It’s about role and fit. You can find players relatively cheap who can be solid NHL players in a bottom 6 role, and it’s very possible one of those players could be a more impactful role player than Holtz. Stashing a recent 7th overall pick as a depth piece in his D+4 season, when you can find cheap depth around the league is bad roster management.

It's not because injuries happen and Holtz is much more likely than any of those players to explode. I also hate HATE the idea of a 'bottom 6', something which the Devils almost never operated with last season. This idea of a 'top 6' forward versus a bottom 6 forward is absolutely for the birds. 3rd lines exist, they are scoring lines, they are not for 'role players'.

 

[devilsblood]

It’s about role and fit. You can find players relatively cheap who can be solid NHL players in a bottom 6 role, and it’s very possible one of those players could be a more impactful role player than Holtz. Stashing a recent 7th overall pick as a depth piece in his D+4 season, when you can find cheap depth around the league is bad roster management.

What would be better roster mgmt? Trading him for a 2nd?

And if we are keeping him, it's not for depth this season, if he can't make the roster we definitely don't think he is good at the moment. We are keeping him in hopes that his overall game can improve to the point where his scoring skills are able to be utilized.

 

[FooteBahl]

It's not because injuries happen and Holtz is much more likely than any of those players to explode. I also hate HATE the idea of a 'bottom 6', something which the Devils almost never operated with last season. This idea of a 'top 6' forward versus a bottom 6 forward is absolutely for the birds. 3rd lines exist, they are scoring lines, they are not for 'role players'.

Yeah I think we’ve evolved from “top 6” to having a “top 9” with our depth.

 

[Lou Bloom]

It's not because injuries happen and Holtz is much more likely than any of those players to explode. I also hate HATE the idea of a 'bottom 6', something which the Devils almost never operated with last season. This idea of a 'top 6' forward versus a bottom 6 forward is absolutely for the birds. 3rd lines exist, they are scoring lines, they are not for 'role players'.

When I say bottom 6 I’m not just talking about grinders, the Devils in general are not short on scoring talent (finished 4th in the NHL in scoring and added a 30+ goal, 70 point player in Toffoli.) I’m general they could use a player that has a more versatile skill set to add a complimentary element to they’re already stacked skill group. That’s part of the reason why having a 1 dimensional player like Holtz on your 3rd line is probably not the best for roster construction.

 

[devilsblood]

Yeah I think we’ve evolved from “top 6” to having a “top 9” with our depth.

Still see us as top 6. Just because of the centers. Though Triumph is right that the 3rd line is pretty distinct from the 4th line.

The usage is interesting because we have a top 6 line which will be used for heavy defensive minutes, and another which will be used very lightly in those situations.

We also have a 4th line which, while not playing against top opposition, will take a ton of defensive draws.

Our 3rd line is still lacking an identity. If Haula plays 3rd line it will be utilized more like the Nico line is my guess. If he's not? Then I'm not sure, would depend on the center I guess.

 

[Lou Bloom]

What would be better roster mgmt? Trading him for a 2nd?

And if we are keeping him, it's not for depth this season, if he can't make the roster we definitely don't think he is good at the moment. We are keeping him in hopes that his overall game can improve to the point where his scoring skills are able to be utilized.

Alex Newhook got a 1st and 2nd round pick. It’s certainly possible you could get solid value for Holtz and I’d personally rather get picks or a prospect/young player that can bring a more well rounded skillset and speed based game.

 

[Triumph]

When I say bottom 6 I’m not just talking about grinders, the Devils in general are not short on scoring talent (finished 4th in the NHL in scoring and added a 30+ goal, 70 point player in Toffoli.) I’m general they could use a player that has a more versatile skill set to add a complimentary element to they’re already stacked skill group. That’s part of the reason why having a 1 dimensional player like Holtz on your 3rd line is probably not the best for roster construction.

They have plenty of versatile players on the roster. If at the deadline they don't like the looks of things there, they can move Holtz at that point.

 

[Bad Goalie]

The Devils also have Clarke, Foote, Thompson and Gristyuk as near ready NHL winger prospects. Holtz's best attribute (his scoring ability) is something the Devils' currently have an abundance of in the organization, if they can get a player or pick of similar value that can add a different element to the team (200 ft play, forechecking, physicality, etc...) I don't see how that wouldn't be a good move to try and add a bit of diversity of talent to the system.

"200 ft play, forechecking, physicality"

Clarke is a 1-trick pony. He doesn't play well with others. No physicality, doesn't forecheck, rarely found in a board battle. His game is not NHL ready. Fear NHL players will physically eliminate him from the play, especially when he tries to go 1 on 1 or 1 on 2 which is his MO. He passes only when he has no alternative.

Thompson falls down when trying to check someone. Skates his butt off up the ice pursuing the puck and arrives on the end boards or in the corner with an opponent and fails to come up with the puck. So much for his forechecking and physicality.
Scoring? He scored 6 goals in the first 25 games got 1 more in game 35 and that was it for the season. In the Comets five playoff games they scored 20 goals. His contribution was 2 assists.

Foote has the best chance of these 3 as he can and will be physical even though he seems to use his physicality sparingly and often in a get even kind of hit. He can score.

I have watched these guys play every game and in spite of his NJ appearances, Holtz has by far been the better player of the 4. He has also learned to play the whole 200 ft. There have been several occasions which seemed very odd where he skated back from the O-zone as the opponents broke out and ended up the only Comet back and literally adopted the D-man role and broke up the play. He also broke up plays from behind. He was responsible at the blueline when a defender pinched. In short he was far better defensively 5 on 5 than any of the others. Foote being the only one other than Alex who can play some in his own end.

Alex is the best of the 4 at moving a pass from the half boards up the ice or at least out of the zone. Clarke and Thompson are most often turnovers in that location. Foote is so-so.

He is the best passer, can receive a pass without it bouncing off his stick. Can't say the same for the other 3.
He has the hardest shot and in the past it has been accurate. Thompson needs a 10 ft net and the other 2 maybe 8 foot. They would also benefit from 2 or 3 extra feet on top, LOL. "High!" - "Over the Net!" or "Wide" - "Misses the open side!" or "Misses high AND wide!" are the most frequent PBP calls when these guys shoot.

I can't comment on Gristyuk as he hasn't played here and won't even be able to at least until his new KHL 2-yr contract runs out. He may never play here at all.

Alex will have trouble on the 4th line. The other 3 lines this season will all have a lot of offensive potential, so he just might be able to get it going if Rupp gives him more than a token game every now and then. A guy with his offensive promise needs an opportunity to bury himself or make it happen. His usage up to this point will never do that.

Last preseason he played very well, The line was the Devils top scoring line. When the season opened that line no longer existed and Alex was in the press box. If that's Lindy's plan for this season, the best thing for Alex is to be traded to a team that will give him that chance.

 

[Lou Bloom]

"200 ft play, forechecking, physicality"

Clarke is a 1-trick pony. He doesn't play well with others. No physicality, doesn't forecheck, rarely found in a board battle. His game is not NHL ready. Fear NHL players will physically eliminate him from the play, especially when he tries to go 1 on 1 or 1 on 2 which is his MO. He passes only when he has no alternative.

Thompson falls down when trying to check someone. Skates his butt off up the ice pursuing the puck and arrives on the end boards or in the corner with an opponent and fails to come up with the puck. So much for his forechecking and physicality.
Scoring? He scored 6 goals in the first 25 games got 1 more in game 35 and that was it for the season. In the Comets five playoff games they scored 20 goals. His contribution was 2 assists.

Foote has the best chance of these 3 as he can and will be physical even though he seems to use his physicality sparingly and often in a get even kind of hit. He can score.

I have watched these guys play every game and in spite of his NJ appearances, Holtz has by far been the better player of the 4. He has also learned to play the whole 200 ft. There have been several occasions which seemed very odd where he skated back from the O-zone as the opponents broke out and ended up the only Comet back and literally adopted the D-man role and broke up the play. He also broke up plays from behind. He was responsible at the blueline when a defender pinched. In short he was far better defensively 5 on 5 than any of the others. Foote being the only one other than Alex who can play some in his own end.

Alex is the best of the 4 at moving a pass from the half boards up the ice or at least out of the zone. Clarke and Thompson are most often turnovers in that location. Foote is so-so.

He is the best passer, can receive a pass without it bouncing off his stick. Can't say the same for the other 3.
He has the hardest shot and in the past it has been accurate. Thompson needs a 10 ft net and the other 2 maybe 8 foot. They would also benefit from 2 or 3 extra feet on top, LOL. "High!" - "Over the Net!" or "Wide" - "Misses the open side!" or "Misses high AND wide!" are the most frequent PBP calls when these guys shoot.

I can't comment on Gristyuk as he hasn't played here and won't even be able to at least until his new KHL 2-yr contract runs out. He may never play here at all.

Alex will have trouble on the 4th line. The other 3 lines this season will all have a lot of offensive potential, so he just might be able to get it going if Rupp gives him more than a token game every now and then. A guy with his offensive promise needs an opportunity to bury himself or make it happen. His usage up to this point will never do that.

Last preseason he played very well, The line was the Devils top scoring line. When the season opened that line no longer existed and Alex was in the press box. If that's Lindy's plan for this season, the best thing for Alex is to be traded to a team that will give him that chance.

Yeah, I don't disagree that Holtz is probably the best forward in Utica. The difference is I don't mind giving players like Clarke or Foote another year in Utica to develop and be emergency depth. Whereas having someone like Holtz in that role is superfluous and a waste of a player who still holds decent value.

 

[My3Sons]

"200 ft play, forechecking, physicality"

Clarke is a 1-trick pony. He doesn't play well with others. No physicality, doesn't forecheck, rarely found in a board battle. His game is not NHL ready. Fear NHL players will physically eliminate him from the play, especially when he tries to go 1 on 1 or 1 on 2 which is his MO. He passes only when he has no alternative.

Thompson falls down when trying to check someone. Skates his butt off up the ice pursuing the puck and arrives on the end boards or in the corner with an opponent and fails to come up with the puck. So much for his forechecking and physicality.
Scoring? He scored 6 goals in the first 25 games got 1 more in game 35 and that was it for the season. In the Comets five playoff games they scored 20 goals. His contribution was 2 assists.

Foote has the best chance of these 3 as he can and will be physical even though he seems to use his physicality sparingly and often in a get even kind of hit. He can score.

I have watched these guys play every game and in spite of his NJ appearances, Holtz has by far been the better player of the 4. He has also learned to play the whole 200 ft. There have been several occasions which seemed very odd where he skated back from the O-zone as the opponents broke out and ended up the only Comet back and literally adopted the D-man role and broke up the play. He also broke up plays from behind. He was responsible at the blueline when a defender pinched. In short he was far better defensively 5 on 5 than any of the others. Foote being the only one other than Alex who can play some in his own end.

Alex is the best of the 4 at moving a pass from the half boards up the ice or at least out of the zone. Clarke and Thompson are most often turnovers in that location. Foote is so-so.

He is the best passer, can receive a pass without it bouncing off his stick. Can't say the same for the other 3.
He has the hardest shot and in the past it has been accurate. Thompson needs a 10 ft net and the other 2 maybe 8 foot. They would also benefit from 2 or 3 extra feet on top, LOL. "High!" - "Over the Net!" or "Wide" - "Misses the open side!" or "Misses high AND wide!" are the most frequent PBP calls when these guys shoot.

I can't comment on Gristyuk as he hasn't played here and won't even be able to at least until his new KHL 2-yr contract runs out. He may never play here at all.

Alex will have trouble on the 4th line. The other 3 lines this season will all have a lot of offensive potential, so he just might be able to get it going if Rupp gives him more than a token game every now and then. A guy with his offensive promise needs an opportunity to bury himself or make it happen. His usage up to this point will never do that.

Last preseason he played very well, The line was the Devils top scoring line. When the season opened that line no longer existed and Alex was in the press box. If that's Lindy's plan for this season, the best thing for Alex is to be traded to a team that will give him that chance.

Thanks as always for sharing these thoughts. You have always been even handed in your evaluations in my view.

 

[Bad Goalie]

Yeah, I don't disagree that Holtz is probably the best forward in Utica. The difference is I don't mind giving players like Clarke or Foote another year in Utica to develop and be emergency depth. Whereas having someone like Holtz in that role is superfluous and a waste of a player who still holds decent value.

As I said above "he just might be able to get it going if Rupp gives him more than a token game every now and then. A guy with his offensive promise needs an opportunity to bury himself or make it happen. His usage up to this point will never do that.

Last preseason he played very well. The line was the Devils top scoring line. When the season opened that line no longer existed and Alex was in the press box. If that's Lindy's plan for this season, the best thing for Alex is to be traded to a team that will give him that chance."

Tossing him away and giving Foote or Clarke the future role of a guy they can't match no matter how hard they try, is throwing away a 21-yr-old kid who was never actually given a chance. 21 is not OLD!

This will, be his 3rd professional season, not 4th. 2021-22 was an entry level slide. It was one of the best AHL seasons in history for a kid who started at his age, 19. He made that historical impact in only 52 games.

So, in the 1st year of his 3-yr ELC, 2022-23, instead of giving him another year in the AHL to work on what he didn't do well (which they should now do with 19-yr-old Nemec), they made him a Devil. Then Ruff used him sporadically in 19 games!!! There's a sure fire way to develop a top prospect. Sit a 20-yr-old in the press box! They literally blew an entire season of this kid's development. That's management CRIME!

Holtz finally went to Rupp and asked to report to Utica. Lindy sent him down, but not before he covered his ass with a BS cover. He said a player with Alex's potential had to play lots of games to make his development happen. So, sending him down was the right thing to do. It was the right thing to do in October not in mid-February (2/17).


He immediately played the next 2 games and failed to record a point. Looked like a rust man.
Then he missed 4 games supposedly due to an injury.
He returned to the lineup on 3/5 and scored the game's first goal. Played the next game on 3/10 and scored 2 more goals. He put up 3 assists in the next 2 games before not recording a point on 3/15, but scored in his next game on 3/17. he was sailing along.

Then something went wrong. He played 3 games in which something looked wrong. He wasn't keeping up. He wasn't shooting. Then he went out of the lineup. They said he was ill. That was 3/26.

He missed every single game for the rest of the regular season. That was 9 games. Rumor circulated throughout the city and during games. It was finally reported he was down with Mono, but it wasn't verified by management. I still believe the first time he lost 4 games it was the same problem. He felt himself ready to go after some serious rest and played well for a short time and then it hit again only worse. He rallied himself to play in the playoffs and played short shifts and contributed where he could.
He still wasn't the Holtz everyone knew. He couldn't get his shot on net during PPs and that was when he actually got it off. He passed the puck almost as soon as he got it. He looked to be trying to help out rather than lead the way. He played all six games and picked up 5 assists. Hopefully all of that is put behind him and comes back to the NJ camp healthy.

He still has 2 years remaining on his ELC. That's significant as to how young this kid was when he started. NJ can certainly take the time to get this now 21-yr-old up to snuff at $80K /season.

2022-23 saw him play 33 total games. The season was like a write-off. A waste of a season. Development stagnated.

If that means the AHL to start on ELC yr #2, so be it. Giving up on a kid that young, especially after pissing away a full season, is just stupid. I hope NJ brass has more sense than that.

If they want to give the kid a change of scenery with another team willing to give him the kind of chance NJ wasn't willing to give him, also so be it.

 

[glenwo2]

I have a feeling he gets traded along with another lower-end prospect in order to get into the 1st round.

Not sure it will happen but Fitz has batted just about a thousand so far so we'll see.

 

[glenwo2]

^^^ So much for that "feeling". Must've been indigestion.

 

[Clam Jensen]

^^^ So much for that "feeling". Must've been indigestion.

 

[ninetyeight]

Depending on how he looks in camp/pre-season, with the depth we have I'd like the Devils to fill the third line with talent and insert Holtz into a permanent top6 role for at least the first 30 games or so. Sink or swim. Playing him in the bottom6 with below average playmakers couple of minutes/game will do him no favor. He also won't learn the timing and pace in the AHL.

I'm just a fan with no professional hockey experience, but to me it seems clear that Holtz needs to play with Hughes or/and Bratt, and stick to it and not just give up after two games.

 

[Nico Hischier]

I have a feeling he gets traded along with another lower-end prospect in order to get into the 1st round.

Not sure it will happen but Fitz has batted just about a thousand so far so we'll see.

I don’t want to trade him but I think the writing is on the wall now with acquiring toffoli. There’s no room left in the top 6. Fitz has already said something about a potential extension too.

Vanacek plus holtz or preferably Casey and a pick for hellebuyck?

Not sure we can even fit him in anymore after getting toffoli.

If we had a choice of adding just one of either toffoli or hellebuyck id take hellebuyck 10/10 times. Just think he would put this team over the top more than toffoli does.

I was not a huge fan of the toffoli trade. I think he’s too slow for this devils team and plays more at a pace suitable for rangers or islanders. He is a right handed shot and has a good shot and gets in the right places so I’m sure I will like him. I just would have rather had holtz at elc and hellebuyck over toffoli at 4.25 mil and vanacek. If fitz can somehow fit both toffoli and hellebuyck in then that would be some magic.

 

[pkbrux]

I'm just a fan with no professional hockey experience, but to me it seems clear that Holtz needs to play with Hughes or/and Bratt, and stick to it and not just give up after two games.

I tend to agree, but with Lindy and his love of switching line combos, I do not think that will happen.

I still believe in Holtz, I really want him to find his game in NJ, but sadly I think it may end up being elsewhere.

 

[AfroThunder396]

I don't really care about top-6 or top-9 as they relate to lines. Some guys have better chemistry with players you might not expect. Lines are whatever, they will sort themselves out eventually. But in terms of overall roster construction and depth - absolutely it matters.

When someone says top-6 forward, what I hear is "can you win a Stanley Cup if this player is one of your 6 best forwards?" To me, a top-pairing defenseman is a guy that you can win a Stanley Cup with if he's playing on your top-pair. A franchise player is a guy you can win a championship with if they are your best overall player.

Put it this way - if Erik Haula is one of your 3 best forwards, is your team good? Probably not. If Erik Haula is one of your 9 best forwards, is your team good? Probably, because it means you have 8 guys better than him.

I don't think you can win a Cup if Dougie Hamilton is your best player. But I think you can definitely win a Cup if he's your best defenseman or playing on your top pair. So I don't consider him a franchise defenseman, but do think he's a slam dunk top pairing guy - regardless of minutes or where he actually slots in on the game day lineup. Even if he's playing on "the 2nd line".

I don't think you can win a Cup if Jesper Bratt is your best forward. But if he's your third best forward (ie, a "first liner"), I think you're in pretty good shape.

As it related to Holtz, I don't see him anywhere close to being one of the 12 best players for this forward group.

 

[My3Sons]

I don't really care about top-6 or top-9 as they relate to lines. Some guys have better chemistry with players you might not expect. Lines are whatever, they will sort themselves out eventually. But in terms of overall roster construction and depth - absolutely it matters.

When someone says top-6 forward, what I hear is "can you win a Stanley Cup if this player is one of your 6 best forwards?" To me, a top-pairing defenseman is a guy that you can win a Stanley Cup with if he's playing on your top-pair. A franchise player is a guy you can win a championship with if they are your best overall player.

Put it this way - if Erik Haula is one of your 3 best forwards, is your team good? Probably not. If Erik Haula is one of your 9 best forwards, is your team good? Probably, because it means you have 8 guys better than him.

I don't think you can win a Cup if Dougie Hamilton is your best player. But I think you can definitely win a Cup if he's your best defenseman or playing on your top pair. So I don't consider him a franchise defenseman, but do think he's a slam dunk top pairing guy.

I don't think you can win a Cup if Jesper Bratt is your best forward. But if he's your third best forward (ie, a "first liner"), I think you're in pretty good shape.

As it related to Holtz, I don't see him anywhere close to being one of the 12 best players for this forward group.

All fair evaluations. Holtz is still young enough that the book is not written on him yet.

 

[ninetyeight]

As it related to Holtz, I don't see him anywhere close to being one of the 12 best players for this forward group.

They all have different roles so it's hard to compare them. I doubt Mikey, Bastian or even Boqvist can score now as much as Holtz did in the AHL at 20yo, and certainly didn't at his age, but they bring other important skills to the table. If we don't give Holtz a chance and let him make mistakes and learn we'll never know what he can do. Sometimes people are too afraid of prospects losing their trade value that they don't even want to give them a proper chance.

 

[devilsblood]

Alex Newhook got a 1st and 2nd round pick. It’s certainly possible you could get solid value for Holtz and I’d personally rather get picks or a prospect/young player that can bring a more well rounded skillset and speed based game.

Newhook does have a couple OK NHL seasons under his belt.

But I'd be interested in a 1st and 2nd for Holtz.