Advanced Stats: Corsi, QoC, etc

[hockeymetrics]

ATTN: Hockey Stats

Is anyone here really interested in stats (objective performance analysis)? Are you into sabermetrics in baseball and wonder about hockey in that way as well? I certainly am and have started to do a lot of research into it and my findings so far are interesting. I'd love to find more people who are interested in this, have an open mind about the power of stats, and are more knowledgeable about the sport than me. Eventually I'm starting a website and need people who are knowledgeable and objective to get involved. Alas, I'm an American who's only been a big hockey fan for a few years, but I like to think I bring a wealth of knowledge about performance and statistical analysis. If you aren't interested I'd prefer if you didn't flame me - it's just a waste of your time and mine.

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[boltsgirl41922]

I'm interested, I think

 

[Lowetide]

There's some very good stuff out there:

http://www.mc79hockey.com/

http://vhockey.blogspot.com/

http://hockeynumbers.blogspot.com/

 

[CaptBrannigan]

I'm very interested in stats and trends and the like, especially how looking at team stats and goalie stats. Particularly minor league.

 

[Injektilo]

There's some very good stuff out there:

http://www.mc79hockey.com/

http://vhockey.blogspot.com/

http://hockeynumbers.blogspot.com/

Those are some great sites, that should be emphasised. Very illuminating stuff.

I don't think i could contribute much to this proposed site, but i'm certainly interested in reading it.

 

[hockeymetrics]

here's a tip for you guys with your fantasy teams - shots on goal is better for predicting future goals than past goals. Generally the best players get the most shots - it's more complicated than this, but think about this if it interests you and i'll go more in depth.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Check out the Hockey Analytics Group on Yahoo! Groups. There are a lot of out there.

 

[SupersonicMonkey*]

A few new stats in hockey

There should be a few new stats in hockey.

GCR - Goal Created
SCR - Scoring Chance Created
GPR - Goal Prevented
SPR - Scoring Chance Prevented

The first two would be a FAR better indication of how much a player contributes to goals scored then the 'Assist' stat.

The last two would be a FAR better indication of how much a player contributes to goals prevented then the '+/-' stat.

Another stat:

SGA - Skater Goals Against

Would also be a smart indication of how poor a player is defensively. They would have to be directly involved in the play, no jumping on or off the bench as a goal is scored. Which is why +/- is a poor stat.



An example of use:

Tonight's USA v SWE game.

Kreider directly contributed to 2 of USA's goals. However, the way 'assist' works, there is no recorded credit for the contribution on each goal. Someone who may not have seen the game and looks at the box score, would not know of these contributions.

However, with those stats, someone would be able to tell by the box score, that the player directly contributed/created scoring chances and goals.


The other stats, someone would be able to see by the box score how a player directly prevented or allowed a goal against.


As things are, currently, there is NO WAY to know of these things in recorded credit, because they're currently not recorded contributions.

And in my personal opinion, these things are equally, if not more important then scoring the actual goal. Or saying a player was +2 or -2.

 

[inthewings]

Difficult to quantify. There are some very quantifiable statistics I'd like to see:
- average length of time carrying puck per possession
- rate of success vs. failure in distributing puck based on a series of good vs. bad possible outcomes

I love baseball sabermetrics and would love to see an increased statistical component to hockey analysis.

 

[SupersonicMonkey*]

I'm not as big on Sabermetrics.

But, a few stats that measure a player's direct impact on goals created and prevented would be great.

 

[SabresFreak97]

Why don't they stop with these small stats(ones of which will be carelessly thrown out to prove a players worth on Forums) and try to fix whats wrong with the game... Seriously who cares

 

[piqued]

How are you going to measure these new stats? Who is going to measure them?

What is the difference between a goal prevented and a scoring chance prevented? Scoring chances are often only realized as such after a goal is scored. Likewise, how do you know if a goalie would've gone on to make a certain save or not?

If you think hits and giveaways/takeaways (and even shots!) are subjective and highly variable between rinks, imagine what would happen with these.

 

[danishh]

all of these stats are far too subjective.

I even hate the 'scoring chance' stat that is kept now. Who decides what is a scoring chance? I'd bet 1/5 or more of goals arnt scored on what would be deemed a 'scoring chance'.

 

[passive voice]

all of these stats are far too subjective.

I even hate the 'scoring chance' stat that is kept now. Who decides what is a scoring chance? I'd bet 1/5 or more of goals arnt scored on what would be deemed a 'scoring chance'.

Vesa Toskala thinks "opposing D-man gets puck at own goalline" should count as a scoring chance.

 

[danishh]

we should have 2 more
time on ice in the offensive zone
time on ice in the defensive zone

even that would be a very costly stat to keep.

statskeepers are very busy already just keeping track of when players come on and off the ice.

 

[um]

we should have an errors stat like in baseball and also one for a good play so if you have made 5 mistakes and 10 good plays you are +5

 

[Granlund2Pulkkinen*]

I think shootout goals should be kept track of.

The leader in the end of the year gets the Jussi Jokinen Trophy

 

[massivegoonery]

we should have an errors stat like in baseball and also one for a good play so if you have made 5 mistakes and 10 good plays you are +5

Useful but very subjective. I usally keep running counts like this going when I watch games but I doubt anyone else's count would look anything like mine.

 

[tarlinian]

The problem with most hockey stats not directly related to Goals are than they are highly dependent on interpretation. There's a piece on the Puck Prospectus hockey blog (http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=351) that shows even shot totals are counted very differently from arena to arena. To ask scorers to make judgments on errors and the like is even more absurd.

(Besides, every baseball sabermetrician will tell you that errors are one of the most useless stats around since they don't account for the fact that a fielder with good range can get to many more balls than one without any range. Similar issues would occur with errors in hockey. A more offensively oriented defesnseman might pinch in the offensive zone 20 times in a game up to the goal line. A stay-at-home guy might only pinch 5 times in a game up till the top of the faceoff circle. Its obviously likely that the offensive dman will have more "errors" from not succeeding on his pinch, but the payoffs would be greater if he succeeded.)

IMO, in order for further statistical analysis of hockey to be useful in evaluating players on a year to year basis, the human element needs to be taken out of scorekeeping. In this sense, I sometimes wish the glow-puck was still around. I, like many of you hated the visuals of it. But the information that could have been gathered from it would be invaluable. So much information could have been gathered from such a system, which is currently either taken by fallible human scorekeepers or is simply not available at all.

 

[kivaerijo]

I think shootout goals should be kept track of.

The leader in the end of the year gets the Jussi Jokinen Trophy

pretty sure they do http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats.htm?fetchKey=20102ALLAASAll&sort=goals&viewName=shootouts

as to OP......i like it. tired of all the liberal second assists being thrown around too.

 

[SayNoToStim]

oh god. The creator of the Quarterback rating system just rolled over in his grave. (or his bed...is he dead yet?)

 

[kingsholygrail]

DA = Dives Attempted
SD = Successful Dives

 

[deanosaur]

You put way too much thought into that. Sorry.

And there's already a few useless stats anyways no need to add four more.

 

[kingsholygrail]

Would it be bad taste for some players to put stamps on their helmets for players destroyed?

 

[SayNoToStim]

players destroyed as in body checks (ala Kronwall on anyone), careers destroyed (ala Lidstrom on Cloutier), or BOOM-HEADSHOT (ala McSorely on Donald Brashear) ?