Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap Part LXII (Arbitration MADNESS)

[Ridley Simon]

You don't want JVR trust me. He's at best a very poor defensive player and will be a bad fit here. Maybe Trotz can get the guy to hit...Carlyle couldn't. He plays like he's 5'9 170 as opposed to his size.

He addresses absolutely NO needs that we have on top of that.

Our farm system needs to be rebuilt due to all the graduations. Trading valuable young assets for an uneeded player who certainly won't put us over the top is rubbish.

EDIT:

We were discussing Bowey sometime back and I made reference to how he reminded me of Carlson. Funny that this just came out:

http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=774610

A bad fit? Based on what? He's still very young, has a lot more talent than someone like Johansson, and is cost controlled for another 3 seasons. If MaJo is anywhere near 4m, you'd be foolish to not make the swap between those 2, assuming that's it doesn't cost Bowey, Vrana, Samsanov, Barber, or the 1st next year (and I'm not totally sold on Barber, I wouldn't choke if he was sent out).

Scoring and Speed are necessary in today's game. Period. JVR is a much better scorer than MaJo, and can carry a line. He is not a passenger, whereas by most accounts, MaJo is.

Flyers fans lament the deal for Schenn. JVR was good for them, but that's seems to be long forgotten because of the Maple Leafs struggles.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Let's get rid of Johansson's 17 ES goals and bring in someone who scores more, like JvR, who had 17 ES goals. Throw in Bowey and a 1st to make up the difference.

It's fun to cherry pick stats, I can play that game?

So the year before, JVR has 19 ES goals, MaJo had 2.

But they are the same offensive player, for sure.

Edit-- and no one is saying to overpay for JVR. Lord, the hyperbole on this board. "I don't like an idea, so I will create the absolute worst scenario for it to happen, and then comment accordingly". That's the mantra.

GMBM hasn't really overpaid for anyone, save *maybe* the Glencross deal, but even that was going rates. He won't carve up the farm here. If a Copley + 3rd type of upgrade (like the Oshie/Brouwer swap) doesn't get it done, then don't do it.

 

[BobRouse]

A bad fit? Based on what? He's still very young, has a lot more talent than someone like Johansson, and is cost controlled for another 3 seasons. If MaJo is anywhere near 4m, you'd be foolish to not make the swap between those 2, assuming that's it doesn't cost Bowey, Vrana, Samsanov, Barber, or the 1st next year (and I'm not totally sold on Barber, I wouldn't choke if he was sent out).

Scoring and Speed are necessary in today's game. Period. JVR is a much better scorer than MaJo, and can carry a line. He is not a passenger, whereas by most accounts, MaJo is.

Flyers fans lament the deal for Schenn. JVR was good for them, but that's seems to be long forgotten because of the Maple Leafs struggles.

That was the whole premise of the argument. If you ask me to swap out MJ for JVR sure. But when you start adding the likes of Vrana, Bowey or a 1st (or even 2 of the 3 which has been mentioned) then thats just dumb.

I'd take JVR for MJ sure. Its not as big of an upgrade as you think it is. JVR is bigger but doesn't use his size. MJ is faster. JVR is the better goal scorer but a worse defender. In fact he's a bad defensive player period.

Let's get rid of Johansson's 17 ES goals and bring in someone who scores more, like JvR, who had 17 ES goals. Throw in Bowey and a 1st to make up the difference.

Exactly. This makes no sense.

It's fun to cherry pick stats, I can play that game?

So the year before, JVR has 19 ES goals, MaJo had 2.

But they are the same offensive player, for sure.

Look up MJs shooting percentage that year.

Every other year MJ has been about 15% give or take. That year he was like 6%. Thats an outlier.

 

[g00n]

So who thinks Mojo is at or above 17ESG next year?

 

[BrooklynCapsFan]

So who thinks Mojo is at or above 17ESG next year?

Under. He tops out at 12-15 whether he's on line 1, 2 or 3 in Washington or elsewhere.

 

[Zoidberg Jesus]

It's fun to cherry pick stats, I can play that game?

So the year before, JVR has 19 ES goals, MaJo had 2.

But they are the same offensive player, for sure.

Edit-- and no one is saying to overpay for JVR. Lord, the hyperbole on this board. "I don't like an idea, so I will create the absolute worst scenario for it to happen, and then comment accordingly". That's the mantra.

GMBM hasn't really overpaid for anyone, save *maybe* the Glencross deal, but even that was going rates. He won't carve up the farm here. If a Copley + 3rd type of upgrade (like the Oshie/Brouwer swap) doesn't get it done, then don't do it.

Yeah, it's cherry picked, but it doesn't change the fact that JVR wouldn't be some huge upgrade. You looked it up, you know his career high is 19 ES goals. I assume you also know that as a lefty, he's gonna have just as much difficulty scoring goals on our PP as Johansson has. If the price is marginal prospects/picks, then whatever. But a lot of people here do want to sell the farm to upgrade from Johansson to JVR, and that seems ridiculous to me.

Flyers fans lament the deal for Schenn. JVR was good for them, but that's seems to be long forgotten because of the Maple Leafs struggles.

That has as much to do with Schenn being an awful hockey player as it does JVR being a good one. If we traded Johansson for an overpaid 6th D, we'd lament that deal too.

So who thinks Mojo is at or above 17ESG next year?

Dunno if he hits 17, but I'm willing to bet he's within 3 ESG of JVR next year.

 

[DCorNothing]

So who thinks Mojo is at or above 17ESG next year?

Not even close.

 

[Bananas]

I'm not entirely blown away by the prospect of JVR more due to toughness and style of play questions, but if we get him for an Oshie type package I'd say, "why the hell not?"

 

[HeyMattyB]

I just want a legit third-line center.

(And for Holtby to get signed before his arbitration case.)

 

[EYEuhFRAYtee]

"I don't like an idea, so I will create the absolute worst scenario for it to happen, and then comment accordingly"

The internet in a nutshell.

I say Mojo pots 12 ESGs

 

[Capitlols]

Under. He tops out at 12-15 whether he's on line 1, 2 or 3 in Washington or elsewhere.

Even that seems generous to me.

 

[txpd]

So who thinks Mojo is at or above 17ESG next year?

I think relatively speaking, he will be at or above that number. You should caveat that OT goals don't count. Right? 90 is going to eat that 3 on 3 stuff up with his speed.

So lets go ahead now and say that if he scored 25 esg, that it doesn't count unless he scores 5-10 playoff goals.

 

[Hivemind]

It's interesting to see how many on this board will readily accept Oates as the cause of the struggles of Holtby, Wilson, Erat, etc. but don't take the same stance for Johansson.

 

[BrooklynCapsFan]

I think relatively speaking, he will be at or above that number. You should caveat that OT goals don't count. Right? 90 is going to eat that 3 on 3 stuff up with his speed.

So lets go ahead now and say that if he scored 25 esg, that it doesn't count unless he scores 5-10 playoff goals.

If we take this absurd hypothetical to its conclusion, 25 ESGs should translate to about 33 goals (via the very realistic projection of multiplying his career numbers by 2.5ish). The expectation then, should be 2.8 per 7 playoff games. He's scored 3 in his last 40 playoff games.

 

[g00n]

It's interesting to see how many on this board will readily accept Oates as the cause of the struggles of Holtby, Wilson, Erat, etc. but don't take the same stance for Johansson.

Did you see earlier where his points were the same or better under Oates? 4 coaches in his career, same points, same style. Except early last season and the Isles series. In a contract year.

 

[g00n]

I think relatively speaking, he will be at or above that number. You should caveat that OT goals don't count. Right? 90 is going to eat that 3 on 3 stuff up with his speed.

So lets go ahead now and say that if he scored 25 esg, that it doesn't count unless he scores 5-10 playoff goals.

No let's go ahead and not **** with what I actually said in favor of some ******** strawman arguments.

 

[Hivemind]

Did you see earlier where his points were the same or better under Oates? 4 coaches in his career, same points, same style. Except early last season and the Isles series. In a contract year.

The conversation recently has focused on goals, and specifically even-strength goals.

 

[txpd]

If we take this absurd hypothetical to its conclusion, 25 ESGs should translate to about 33 goals (via the very realistic projection of multiplying his career numbers by 2.5ish). The expectation then, should be 2.8 per 7 playoff games. He's scored 3 in his last 40 playoff games.

lets simplify then. yes. 17esg or above.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Did you see earlier where his points were the same or better under Oates? 4 coaches in his career, same points, same style. Except early last season and the Isles series. In a contract year.

Soooooo what, you're suggesting that it's a contract year and he won't replicate his numbers?

Until his performance shows otherwise, I think this was a bit of a breakout season for Mojo. Unless his role is dramatically altered, I don't see a drop-off coming next season. I think he continues to improve production-wise.

 

[Blades of Steel]

17 esg? i'll be (surprised) happy if he hits 17-20 goals again.

He had 20 goals last year on a contract season?

 

[g00n]

The conversation recently has focused on goals, and specifically even-strength goals.

If that's the limitation then is there a comparable measurement for the players you mentioned, pre and post-Oates?

Several other players had decent goalscoring years last year, including ESG. Why was Mojo uniquely affected, and why did he only score 8 total goals and 2 ESG all year despite PP1 and top line time? The previous year he had 3 ESG in 34 games. What exactly about Oates caused him and him specifically to score so few goals while others who were also affected by Oates still put pucks in the net?

Mojo had 13 ESG under BB/Hunter and 10 under BB. Eric Fehr had 17ESG last year under Trotz and 13 under Oates the year before. Is Fehr then worth 3.5-4M? Why did he have 6 times as many ESG as Mojo with Oates and the same # with Trotz?

 

[BobRouse]

Did you see earlier where his points were the same or better under Oates? 4 coaches in his career, same points, same style. Except early last season and the Isles series. In a contract year.

We can look at it another way...

Last year was the 1st year since his rookie season where we had competent coaching.

In his rookie year he put up solid numbers in a season where we played the trap for a good deal of it.

The next year it was BBs trap mixed with Hunterhockey.

Then Oates happened.

I think we saw what a real coach can do for a great many of our players.

If that's the limitation then is there a comparable measurement for the players you mentioned, pre and post-Oates?

Several other players had decent goalscoring years last year, including ESG. Why was Mojo uniquely affected, and why did he only score 8 total goals and 2 ESG all year despite PP1 and top line time? The previous year he had 3 ESG in 34 games. What exactly about Oates caused him and him specifically to score so few goals while others who were also affected by Oates still put pucks in the net?

Mojo had 13 ESG under BB/Hunter and 10 under BB. Eric Fehr had 17ESG last year under Trotz and 13 under Oates the year before. Is Fehr then worth 3.5-4M? Why did he have 6 times as many ESG as Mojo with Oates and the same # with Trotz?

The stick altering may have had alot to do with it. Also Oates making MJ play on a line with 8/19 where Ovie was told to not carry the puck.

Also his abberation of a shooting percentage in his 8 goal year (which again could have been due to the stick issue)

We saw how Oates micromanaged a guy like Holtby and how it impacted his play. Same for Mojo perhaps?

 

[Turd Ferguson]

I think relatively speaking, he will be at or above that number. You should caveat that OT goals don't count. Right? 90 is going to eat that 3 on 3 stuff up with his speed.

So lets go ahead now and say that if he scored 25 esg, that it doesn't count unless he scores 5-10 playoff goals.

hehe.. Mojo getting 45-50% of his career total in goals in one season at even strength.

 

[g00n]

lets simplify then. yes. 17esg or above.

I'll take the under.

I'm not worried about 3 on 3 OTG screwing up the curve because he has 8 regular season GWG in his entire career and ZERO OT goals. In fact I think he's got maybe 4 OT points in 5 years.

Mojo has been 4th on the team in ES/TOI/g the last 4 years behind Ovie, Backstrom, and whoever the flavor of the year happens to be (Ribs, Ward, Semin, Grabo). He's had more of a consistent chance at ES than any other regular Caps player below our two franchise top line stars.

What does this guy do at an elite level? 8 and 19 have elite talents. What is Mojo elite at?

 

[g00n]

We can look at it another way...

Last year was the 1st year since his rookie season where we had competent coaching.

In his rookie year he put up solid numbers in a season where we played the trap for a good deal of it.

The next year it was BBs trap mixed with Hunterhockey.

Then Oates happened.

I think we saw what a real coach can do for a great many of our players.



The stick altering may have had alot to do with it. Also Oates making MJ play on a line with 8/19 where Ovie was told to not carry the puck.

Also his abberation of a shooting percentage in his 8 goal year (which again could have been due to the stick issue)

We saw how Oates micromanaged a guy like Holtby and how it impacted his play. Same for Mojo perhaps?

Again, other players had the same level of micromanagement affecting their games and still produced. Other players went through as many coaches. Why was Mojo uniquely affected despite more consistent opportunity for secondary scoring at ES than anyone els?