Yeah the Penguins have been a playoff regular these last few years. The change in start can only be bad for them. Especially with more Eastern teams in and no Western teams. Their western record these last few years has been killer.
This start helps teams like the Islanders and Maple Leafs - teams that are usually out of it by January and never get the energy push from being in the playoff rush. I'd put money on one of those two suprising us this year and making top 3. I'd also put money on one of the big teams - Pittsburgh, Philly, New York, or Boston not making the playoffs.
I'd rather the team slip in as a 6,7 or 8.. avoid that brutal 4-5 match up.. and start a series on the road without the pressure. Getting there will be painful to watch though.
I'm not buying it. IMO, a condensed, shortened season benefits good teams that didn't experience a bunch of turnover — at least in the context of getting enough points to make the playoffs.
Teams that had a lot of turnover — or which have to integrate important new players into the mix — will be at a disadvantage, because those players will have to adjust to new linemates and new systems. Points lost during early-season growing points will be crucial.
While the Isles and Leafs (I do think the Isles will do well and am cautiously optimistic for the Leafs) didn't have drastic turnover in the offseason, other well-regarded teams in the east have. From what I was able to find re: offseason moves:
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Flyers lose JVR, Jagr, Carle and add Schenn, Fedotenko, Gervais
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Rangers add Nash, Pyatt, Halpern, Asham; lose Dubinsky, Anisimov, Erixson, Prust.
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Capitals add Riberio, Crabb, Wolski; lose Semin, Eakin, Wideman.
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Hurricanes add Staal, Semic, Corvo; lose Sutter.
And that doesn't include the promotion of rookies to the NHL roster.
Those teams have a decent amount of departing players to replace and new guys to integrate, and each of those teams have at least one top-six change. By comparison, here's what the Pens did: lose (third-line) Staal and (fourth-line) Asham; add Sutter and Glass. Replaced/upgraded backup goalie Johnson with Vokoun.
In a shortened season, I'd rather have question marks about how long it will take my third line to mesh than questions about how my first- and second-lines are going to mesh. Although most Pens fans appreciate what J. Staal can do, would any of us feel confident with the prospect of him clicking with Semin during the first month of the season? And keep in mind, that first four weeks (14 games) is going to amount to about 30 percent of the entire regular season.
That said, those talented-but-in-transition teams certainly could be in a position to do some damage in the playoffs. But as for qualifying for the playoffs, I don't worry too much about the Pens.