A Look at Seedings, Power Rankings & Tuesday's games

Discussion in 'International Tournaments' started by Czech Your Math, Feb 19, 2006.

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  1. Czech Your Math

    Czech Your Math Registered User

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    Here is how Group standings will be affected by the final preliminary games:

    Group A: Finland is #1. Swiss are #2, unless they lose to Italy. Then the Czech-Canada game will be for 2nd instead of 3rd, with the loser finishing 4th either way (if Czech-Canada is a tie, Swiss are 2nd, Canada 3rd, Czechs 4th).

    Group B: USA is #4. If Slovakia beats Sweden, it will be 1. Slovakia 2. Russia 3. Sweden. Same if Slovakia ties Sweden, unless US beats Russia, in which case Sweden #2 and Russia #3. If Sweden beats Slovakia, then I believe it's 1. Sweden 2. Slovakia 3. Russia, unless Russia beats US, in which case it should be 1. Russia 2. Sweden 3. Slovakia.

    Tuesday's Games
    -----------------
    Latvia vs. Kazakhstan: This one's strictly for pride.

    Switzerland vs. Italy: Swiss need at least a tie to ensure #2 seed in Group A. If they lose, the winner of Czech-Canada game will be #2, Swiss will be #3.

    Finland vs. Germany: This game is irrelevant to medal round seedings.

    Canada vs. Czech Rep.: Winner of this game is #3 in Group A, which may not matter so much in QFs (likely play Slovakia or Russia either way), but #3A would likely play winner of Sweden-Swiss in semifinal (instead of favorite Finland).

    Sweden vs. Slovakia: Slovakia needs to win or tie to be #1 in Group B. If Sweden wins, they finish 1st or 2nd, otherwise they'll be 3rd (and likely draw Swiss in QF).

    USA vs. Russia: USA would love to beat Russia, Russia will have nothing to play for if Slovakia beats Sweden, otherwise will determine seedings.

    My power rankings, pending Tuesday's games:
    1. Finland: Only 2 goals given up (both to Czechs) in round robin, easy call.
    2. Slovakia: Has chance to go undefeated in preliminary round, goaltending has been pleasant surprise.
    3. Russia: Can't hold opening game loss to Slovakia against them too much.
    4. Czechs: Ranked ahead of Canada, because they played as good or better against common opponents thus far, but Vokoun will have to be sharp if they are to advance in medal round. Losing Hasek, Elias, and Jagr (for most of important Finland game) has hurt them, but still very dangerous.
    5. Canada: Lucky to be this high, after back to back shutouts. Can they suddenly turn it on in the medal round?
    6. Sweden: Would move up with win against Slovakia, but got skunked by Russia.
    7. Swiss: Deserve credit for great wins in round robin, but can't be considered a favorite against anyone in medal round.
    8. USA: Has played better than I expected, won't be easy QF matchup.
     
  2. Leo Naphta

    Leo Naphta Registered User

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    If Russia beats the US, Sweden need to beat Slovakia with four goals in order to finish second, (ahead of Slovakia) and with 7 or 8 in order to win the group. It won't happen in other words.
     
  3. SChan*

    SChan* Guest

    I want the swiss.
     
  4. Czech Your Math

    Czech Your Math Registered User

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    You are right, if they use head-to-head goal differential before total goal differential. It is not clear to me whether this is the case, or they go straight to total goal differential. Anyone have any insight on this?
     
  5. Leo Naphta

    Leo Naphta Registered User

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    I'm pretty sure they use head-to-head, but I haven't got a link to prove it.
     
  6. sabresrat

    sabresrat Registered User

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    1. Finland
    2. Russia
    3. Slovakia
    4. Sweden
    5. Czechs
    6. Canada
    7. USA
    8. Swiss
     
  7. shawn_kemp*

    shawn_kemp* Guest

    Guys, I didn't think I'd ever say this, I think I'm being a coward and all, but I hope Russia loses tomorrow and will pray for a Swedish win in order to avoid the Czech Republic / Canada.
     
  8. shawn_kemp*

    shawn_kemp* Guest

    I agree except that it should be a 3-way tie between Czech Republic, USA and Canada.
     
  9. SChan*

    SChan* Guest

    I think the same thing. I hope Sweden loses against slovakia.
     
  10. sabresrat

    sabresrat Registered User

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    I think the Czechs are a slight step ahead of Canada and the USA, and I think Canada's overall talent level is higher than the USA.
     
  11. shawn_kemp*

    shawn_kemp* Guest

    :biglaugh: We're even bigger losers than some of those annoying whining Canadians (no generalizations!).

    We hope we lose before the game is played, and we find excuses to lose, not to explain why we lost! :biglaugh: :sarcasm:
     
  12. Czech Your Math

    Czech Your Math Registered User

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    I don't know how one can rank Russia over Slovakia, if tournament results are a factor at all.

    If you're going purely on opinion of talent, then I guess anything goes.

    I can see moving Sweden ahead of Canada (and possibly ahead of/tied with Czechs), especially if Forsberg is near full strength. I mainly ranked Czechs ahead of them, because they haven't been blown out (like Sweden vs. Russia), lost to Swiss by one goal in early morning (back to back) and were playing as well or better than Finland until Jagr was injured (and he should be at or near full strength by Tuesday).

    I know USA may have more talent than Swiss, but USA has kept close in low-scoring games, but mostly lost (and tied Latvia), while Swiss have similarly played low-scoring games, but beaten both Czechs and Canada (despite being outshot by wide margins in both games) and their tie with Germany was about all they needed at this point.
     
  13. sabresrat

    sabresrat Registered User

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    Goaltending.
     
  14. shawn_kemp*

    shawn_kemp* Guest

    Not only the fact that Nabokov is Russia's no. 1, but watching Slovakia against Latvia, USA and Kazakhstan I've the impression their defense hasn't improved at all, while the Russians changed things radically.

    But we'll see.
     
  15. Caz

    Caz Hedonist

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    Here's the St Rank (statistical ranking)
    after tonight's games 19Feb06:

    St Rank
    1. FIN
    2. SVK
    3. SWE
    4. RUS
    5. CAN
    5. SUI
    7. USA
    8. CZE
    9. GER
    10. KAZ
    10. LAT
    12. ITA

    At this moment it looks like a tight race between FIN and SVK,
    with SWE right in the heels and RUS just a little bit behind.
    Then there's actually a gap and a tight group of CAN, SUI, USA
    & CZE in that order, and the rest quite clearly behind.

    All stats used in detail in the attached gif.

    :teach:
     
  16. Epsilon

    Epsilon #TeamHolland

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    I'd like to see Canada-Russia and Slovakia-Czech Republic in the quarterfinals for some good rivalry matchups.
     
  17. VanIslander

    VanIslander Don't waste my time

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    I am kicking myself for not taking the long odds on:

    Gold: Russia
    Silver: Slovakia
    Bronze: Canada

    I might've been able to buy that house I've always wanted!
     
  18. Firsov99

    Firsov99 Registered User

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    1. Finland: World Cup 04 final appearance obviously wasn't a fluke. This is the most balanced team on this tournament. The only negative is that perfect round robin records haven't brought luck recently, so they should lose to Germany if they want to win gold :)

    2. Slovakia: The offense hasn't scored a lot in the last two games, but they still won them. Budaj must be sharp in the playoffs if the Slovaks want to advance. Hossa has been superb.

    3. Russia: The Russians have found the scoring touch again. Nabokov has been solid. If Gonchar and Afinogenov don't turn the puck over, the Russians can go deep in the playoffs.

    4. Sweden: They have improved after the 0-5 loss to Russia, but they won't win gold without Forsberg. The Swedes should hope that he remains healthy.

    5. Czech Republic: As long as they have healthy Vokoun and Jagr, they can beat anyone.

    6. Canada: Team Canada "A" was shut out in two games in a row; this is a true "miracle on ice." Ironically, a lot of Canadian fans, probably, think right now that Canada should have sent its "B" or "C" or maybe "W" team to this tournament :) But seriously, even if Canada doesn't score agaisnt the Czechs in two days, NOONE from group B would want to play Canada in the quarterfinals in anyway.

    7. Switzerland: Despite the Switz achievements, Slovakia, Russia, and Sweden hope that they play Switzerland instead Canada or Czech Republic in the quarterfinals.

    8. USA: As I mentioned in my earlier rankings, the Americans have a good D and goaltending, but there is no finesse and accuracy up front. They can upset Finland though.

    9-12. Who cares..... :)
     
  19. DatsyukOwnzU13

    DatsyukOwnzU13 Registered User

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    I've been really pleased by the level of competition with all teams. Some pleasant suprises with the upsets and some fun games to watch with Kazhakstan (against Russia and Slovakia). Here's to hoping it only gets better (and the US doesn't continue to embarass)
     
  20. misterchainsaw

    misterchainsaw Garbo is coming

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    1. Finland
    2. Slovakia
    3. Russia
    4. Sweden
    5. Canada
    6. Czech Republic
    7. USA
    8. Switzerland
     
  21. sabresrat

    sabresrat Registered User

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    Soooo close.
     
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