"A Defenseman Scoring 100 Points in a Season is Like a Forward Scoring..."

[M2Beezy]

100 for a dman id say is around 126 points maybe 127 for a forward

 

[Dingo]

118 forwards and 6 dmen have done it

"itth da thame!"

lol, ok.

 

[TropicOfNoReturn]

Depends. Does the defenceman actually defend or does he play rover and routinely essentially play the wing ?

For a guy that's responsible defensively and stays in position, i'd say it's the equivalent of like a 120 points for a forward.

For an all offence no defence guy that just cares about jumping up the rush and actually doesn't pay attention to defending, it's the same.

Assuming it's an actual "Blue liner" 120.

Go take a look at how many 120 point seasons there are from forwards in league history. Then, go see how many 100 points seasons there from defenseman in league history.

The answer is more like 140-150 points.

 

[authentic]

100 for a dman id say is around 126 points maybe 127 for a forward

I’m surprised 131+ is the popular answer, I would say it’s 130 at the most and if some believe that Karlsson is just as good offensively as McDavid then that means an average Lidstrom season was better offensively than an average Crosby season and it’s pretty obvious Lidstrom was not a better offensive talent, that means there are a ton of defenseman who are also better offensively than Crosby but just happened to play defense

 

[norrisnick]

So defensemen who have put up 70-80 points are comparable to 115-130 point scorers in the past? Maybe this is the case but still seems like a bit much to me, this would have an average Lidstrom season higher than most of Crosby’s offensively, doesn’t really check out to me.

Not all defensemen, no. But defensemen on par with Lidstrom, Bourque, Potvin, Robinson, Chelios, Hedman, etc... guys that eat 25-30 minutes a night in every situation matched up against the oppositions' best? yeah, absolutely. A 70+ point season from those guys is easily worth a 100+ season from a scoring forward.

 

[authentic]

Not all defensemen, no. But defensemen on par with Lidstrom, Bourque, Potvin, Robinson, Chelios, Hedman, etc... guys that eat 25-30 minutes a night in every situation matched up against the oppositions' best? yeah, absolutely. A 70+ point season from those guys is easily worth a 100+ season from a scoring forward.

100+ sure, but 115-130? That means Lidstrom had an average season better than all but a few of Crosby’s

 

[CascadiaPuck]

Now with the new PP set up racks up secondary assists for the defenseman at the point, 100 points for a defenseman won't be an unattainable target for the most elite offensive D in the league.

I mean, maybe. But shouldn’t we wait to see it more than once in the past 30 years before we hint at it being attainable? I’d love to see it, but I’m not holding my breath that Hughes or Makar will get there.

 

[norrisnick]

100+ sure, but 115-130? That means Lidstrom had an average season better than all but a few of Crosby’s

Lidstrom at his best was better than Crosby at his best, yes.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Trying to apply this as a straight up no-context equation for all defensemen is utter gibberish.

I'm surprised so many people are going along with it.

 

[norrisnick]

Trying to apply this as a straight up no-context equation for all defensemen is utter gibberish.

I'm surprised so many people are going along with it.

Yeah, without context 100=100, 90=90, etc...

There's 70pt seasons I'd prefer from certain forwards over 90-100pt seasons from certain D... And vice versa.

 

[authentic]

Lidstrom at his best was better than Crosby at his best, yes.

 

[majormajor]

With Erik Karlsson, 100 pts is like 100 pts from a forward. He was often more of a 4th forward than a D.

If Cale Makar scores 100 pts though, that's like 145 pts from a forward.

 

[Dust]

I still think they could make it with a bit more puck luck.

Their PP isn't going to end the season under 10%. Whoever runs that PP should be fired into the sun having those kinds of weapons and it being that bad.

 

[Hisch13r]

150

 

[Regal]

And then there's the whole "why didn't the Penguins get better??!!?" factor and like, Karlsson's old. The Penguins were already old. Karlsson's 22-23 season was a standout season in his whole career, let alone at the age he's at. It probably wasn't fair to expect 22-23 as the norm.

Then you factor in that the Penguins are significantly underperforming their analytics, and it becomes another thing that's impossible to gauge with a single numerical value.

Karlsson also has been on the ice for 30GF and 16 GA at 5v5. Hard to blame him for them having a worse record

 

[Juxtaposer]

Jeez, another poorly disguised Karlsson Actually Sucks thread.

The answer truly depends. If Evan Bouchard gets 100 points with 60 of them PP assists on McDavid goals, it’s not that impressive.

If a defenseman scores 74 even strength points on a terrible team with like two other borderline NHL players on their roster? Diffferent. Last year’s Erik Karlsson was as good offensively at even strength as Connor McDavid.

The “Karlsson sucks” argument should easily be rebuffed by how the Sharks went from a passable NHL team last season to a borderline ECHL team this year despite much better goaltending. The Sharks were “lucky” to lose as many games as they did last year. The Penguins not knowing how to use Karlsson doesn’t change that.

 

[Regal]

Go take a look at how many 120 point seasons there are from forwards in league history. Then, go see how many 100 points seasons there from defenseman in league history.

The answer is more like 140-150 points.

I don’t buy that two things being similarly rare makes them similarly valuable. There’s 50% more forwards in the league for starters, and even then a far greater percentage of forwards are capable of big offensive seasons than defensemen both from a talent perspective as well as a usage perspective. There’s rarely more than one defenseman given the green light on a team whereas there’s often two or three forwards. If we look at last year for example, there were 35 other forwards within half of McDavid’s totals but only 17 other defensemen within half of Karlsson’s. If these outlier point totals are similarly difficult to attain, we should expect it to happen more often for forwards because there’s a greater pool of possible players to draw from.

 

[Realgud]

100 for a dman id say is around 126 points maybe 127 for a forward

127? Absolutely no way... but 126? Now we're talking.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Yeah, without context 100=100, 90=90, etc...

There's 70pt seasons I'd prefer from certain forwards over 90-100pt seasons from certain D... And vice versa.

We used to affectionately call it "Kopitar math"

Sure he 'only' put up 70+ points a year but he did it while rendering the opposing 100 pt scorer into a 50 pt scorer. I'd absolutely put Lidstrom's 70 pt seasons into the Kopitar math bucket (and then some).

 

[norrisnick]

We used to affectionately call it "Kopitar math"

Sure he 'only' put up 70+ points a year but he did it while rendering the opposing 100 pt scorer into a 50 pt scorer. I'd absolutely put Lidstrom's 70 pt seasons into the Kopitar math bucket.

Kopitar is the post-lockout player I most wish would have been a Wing. But... it's long gotten past the point where it'd be weird if he played anywhere else. I check the boxscores to see if he'll squeeze out another King season scoring title. He's gotta be getting close to that record, no? How many seasons did Gretzky play? 19? EDIT - 20, with leading his team 19 times. 2 more for Anze to tie...

 

[TropicOfNoReturn]

I don’t buy that two things being similarly rare makes them similarly valuable. There’s 33% more forwards in the league for starters, and even then a far greater percentage of forwards are capable of big offensive seasons than defensemen both from a talent perspective as well as a usage perspective. There’s rarely more than one defenseman given the green light on a team whereas there’s often two or three forwards. If we look at last year for example, there were 35 other forwards within half of McDavid’s totals but only 17 other defensemen within half of Karlsson’s. If these outlier point totals are similarly difficult to attain, we should expect it to happen more often for forwards because there’s a greater pool of possible players to draw from.

Well said. I like your reasoning. I hadn't considered that aspect.

 

[authentic]

I don’t buy that two things being similarly rare makes them similarly valuable. There’s 33% more forwards in the league for starters, and even then a far greater percentage of forwards are capable of big offensive seasons than defensemen both from a talent perspective as well as a usage perspective. There’s rarely more than one defenseman given the green light on a team whereas there’s often two or three forwards. If we look at last year for example, there were 35 other forwards within half of McDavid’s totals but only 17 other defensemen within half of Karlsson’s. If these outlier point totals are similarly difficult to attain, we should expect it to happen more often for forwards because there’s a greater pool of possible players to draw from.

Also assuming that the rarity of each aligns with their value that would mean a 100 point defenseman is actually clearly better than a 150 point forward and that’s definitely not the case.

 

[Dingo]

I’m surprised 131+ is the popular answer, I would say it’s 130 at the most and if some believe that Karlsson is just as good offensively as McDavid then that means an average Lidstrom season was better offensively than an average Crosby season and it’s pretty obvious Lidstrom was not a better offensive talent, that means there are a ton of defenseman who are also better offensively than Crosby but just happened to play defense

there were four seasons that overlapped in their careers, wherein Sid played a full season

Sid scored 102, 120, 103, and 109

Nick had 80, 62, 59 and 49

in total, in those 7 seasons Sid had 609 in 434.

Nick had 416 in 548.

Average seasons of 115 and 67.

Nick's average season, by the 100/130 ratio would be more like a consistent 85-90pt forward. Marty St. Louis was a better target.

 

[norrisnick]

there were four seasons that overlapped in their careers, wherein Sid played a full season

Sid scored 102, 120, 103, and 109

Nick had 80, 62, 59 and 49

in total, in those 7 seasons Sid had 609 in 434.

Nick had 416 in 548.

Average seasons of 115 and 67.

Nick's average season, by the 100/130 ratio would be more like a consistent 85-90pt forward. Marty St. Louis was a better target.

I'm more interested in whether Sid outscores Lidstrom's 70pts at 37yo next season.

 

[bambamcam4ever]

Trying to apply this as a straight up no-context equation for all defensemen is utter gibberish.

I'm surprised so many people are going along with it.

Agreed. The real answer is N/A.

It's not hard for a defenseman to put up a bunch of points of they make that their only goal. Achieving the right balance between offensive/defense is very hard to do well and make a consistent positive impact at both ends.

Jeez, another poorly disguised Karlsson Actually Sucks thread.

The answer truly depends. If Evan Bouchard gets 100 points with 60 of them PP assists on McDavid goals, it’s not that impressive.

If a defenseman scores 74 even strength points on a terrible team with like two other borderline NHL players on their roster? Diffferent. Last year’s Erik Karlsson was as good offensively at even strength as Connor McDavid.

The “Karlsson sucks” argument should easily be rebuffed by how the Sharks went from a passable NHL team last season to a borderline ECHL team this year despite much better goaltending. The Sharks were “lucky” to lose as many games as they did last year. The Penguins not knowing how to use Karlsson doesn’t change that.

It's probably not an accident that a team's goaltending improves without EK65.