MattMartin
Killer Instinct™
NEW YORK ISLANDERS AT TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING
GAME 7: ISLANDERS AT LIGHTNING
8 PM | AMALIE ARENA
SERIES TIED 3-3
WATCH: NBCSN | CBC | SN | TVAS | NHL.TV
LISTEN: 88.7FM | 103.9FM | 98.7FM
Preview
Let’s get the narrative stuff out of the way first. It would be very big for believers in karma if Nikita Kucherov was unable to go in Game 7. As of this writing, the Tampa Bay Lightning remain mum on their star sniper and leading point-getter of the Stanley Cup playoffs.
It’s been much-discussed that the defending champs stashed Kucherov right until the end of the regular season so as to circumvent the salary cap, giving them a loaded roster for their title defense.
So it would be fitting if they had to win their first elimination game in over two years with the version of the team that existed throughout the regular season. His absence is the fundamental basis for the handicap of Game 7 between the Lightning and New York Islanders.
Islanders Must Convert Offensive Chances
Whether it’s in this space, or over on NHL.com with The Action Network content provided by our own NHL editorial leader, Michael Leboff, we’ve made a big deal about the Islanders play at even-strength in comparison to Tampa Bay. Why not keep that energy going and drop this table on you?
As you can see, the Islanders are generating more offence than the Lightning are at even-strength but are not converting at the same rate that Tampa is.
The Bolts’ 19.5% conversion rate is considerably above the 14% average in the NHL, which isn’t too surprising given the talent they have on the team. Even without Kucherov this season, the Lightning converted at 16.2% during the regular season.
The last line in the chart isn’t all that surprising either, given that the Lightning came into the series converting at higher than 40% of their powerplay opportunities in the first two rounds. So how are the Islanders doing this?
Guts, guile, gumption, an electric home facility? Sorry, but none of these are actual reasons. The three games they’ve won in this series have come by scores of 2-1, 3-2, and 3-2, which aren’t as flashy as say 8-0, but each count just the same.
In those three games, the Isles have given Tampa Bay just 2, 1 and 2 power play opportunities, with no goals resulting on those chances. That’s a pretty good recipe for making it an even-strength game, where the Isles are proving equal to the Lightning.
Lightning Are Different Team Without Kucherov
Tampa’s story for Game 7 without Kucherov is a different version of the tale told when he’s in their lineup. Often when a player is forced out for a game or two, it becomes a very inexact science trying to quantify his impact.
Here’s the rare situation where we actually can quantify his impact with a decent degree of certainty. Let’s take a look at another sweet chart.
Tampa’s power play has been the literal difference-maker this playoff season. While 5-on-5, the Lightning haven’t been near dominant, averaging 1.79 Expected Goals For against three quality teams, but those opponents have averaged 1.88 Expected Goals of their own.
Through 17 games of playoff hockey, the Lightning have killed teams who dare to take a penalty against them, converting at an outlandish 37.7% rate. This is due to a power play that features Kucherov on one side, Steve Stamkos on the other, and a trio of characters in the middle that either set them up, or feed off them.
When one of those wing weapons goes out, it becomes easier to defend. How much easier? The Lightning power play was a modest 22.2% during the regular season. That’s the difference between the expectation of scoring on one of three opportunities, or one of five opportunities. So if Kucherov is unable to go in Game 7, and the Islanders are stingy with the penalties, where is the difference-making offence supposed to come from?
The quick answer to that is to list their other star talent making up their still-over-the-cap salary commitments, beginning with Brayden Point, who hopes to score in this league-record 10th straight playoff game. However, near records like that, and accolades that follow Stamkos and Conn Smythe-winner Victor Hedman are all built into the numbers above.
With the Lightning having to revert to the version of themselves from the regular season, the key cog will be Andrei Vasilevskiy, and that’s not the worst thing in the world, as the best goaltender in the league has outrageous numbers after a loss in the playoffs en route to an 11-0 record for the Bolts in bounce-back situations.
Playoff Series History
GAME 7: ISLANDERS AT LIGHTNING
8 PM | AMALIE ARENA
SERIES TIED 3-3
WATCH: NBCSN | CBC | SN | TVAS | NHL.TV
LISTEN: 88.7FM | 103.9FM | 98.7FM
Preview
Let’s get the narrative stuff out of the way first. It would be very big for believers in karma if Nikita Kucherov was unable to go in Game 7. As of this writing, the Tampa Bay Lightning remain mum on their star sniper and leading point-getter of the Stanley Cup playoffs.
It’s been much-discussed that the defending champs stashed Kucherov right until the end of the regular season so as to circumvent the salary cap, giving them a loaded roster for their title defense.
So it would be fitting if they had to win their first elimination game in over two years with the version of the team that existed throughout the regular season. His absence is the fundamental basis for the handicap of Game 7 between the Lightning and New York Islanders.
Islanders Must Convert Offensive Chances
Whether it’s in this space, or over on NHL.com with The Action Network content provided by our own NHL editorial leader, Michael Leboff, we’ve made a big deal about the Islanders play at even-strength in comparison to Tampa Bay. Why not keep that energy going and drop this table on you?
As you can see, the Islanders are generating more offence than the Lightning are at even-strength but are not converting at the same rate that Tampa is.
The Bolts’ 19.5% conversion rate is considerably above the 14% average in the NHL, which isn’t too surprising given the talent they have on the team. Even without Kucherov this season, the Lightning converted at 16.2% during the regular season.
The last line in the chart isn’t all that surprising either, given that the Lightning came into the series converting at higher than 40% of their powerplay opportunities in the first two rounds. So how are the Islanders doing this?
Guts, guile, gumption, an electric home facility? Sorry, but none of these are actual reasons. The three games they’ve won in this series have come by scores of 2-1, 3-2, and 3-2, which aren’t as flashy as say 8-0, but each count just the same.
In those three games, the Isles have given Tampa Bay just 2, 1 and 2 power play opportunities, with no goals resulting on those chances. That’s a pretty good recipe for making it an even-strength game, where the Isles are proving equal to the Lightning.
Lightning Are Different Team Without Kucherov
Tampa’s story for Game 7 without Kucherov is a different version of the tale told when he’s in their lineup. Often when a player is forced out for a game or two, it becomes a very inexact science trying to quantify his impact.
Here’s the rare situation where we actually can quantify his impact with a decent degree of certainty. Let’s take a look at another sweet chart.
Tampa’s power play has been the literal difference-maker this playoff season. While 5-on-5, the Lightning haven’t been near dominant, averaging 1.79 Expected Goals For against three quality teams, but those opponents have averaged 1.88 Expected Goals of their own.
Through 17 games of playoff hockey, the Lightning have killed teams who dare to take a penalty against them, converting at an outlandish 37.7% rate. This is due to a power play that features Kucherov on one side, Steve Stamkos on the other, and a trio of characters in the middle that either set them up, or feed off them.
When one of those wing weapons goes out, it becomes easier to defend. How much easier? The Lightning power play was a modest 22.2% during the regular season. That’s the difference between the expectation of scoring on one of three opportunities, or one of five opportunities. So if Kucherov is unable to go in Game 7, and the Islanders are stingy with the penalties, where is the difference-making offence supposed to come from?
The quick answer to that is to list their other star talent making up their still-over-the-cap salary commitments, beginning with Brayden Point, who hopes to score in this league-record 10th straight playoff game. However, near records like that, and accolades that follow Stamkos and Conn Smythe-winner Victor Hedman are all built into the numbers above.
With the Lightning having to revert to the version of themselves from the regular season, the key cog will be Andrei Vasilevskiy, and that’s not the worst thing in the world, as the best goaltender in the league has outrageous numbers after a loss in the playoffs en route to an 11-0 record for the Bolts in bounce-back situations.
Playoff Series History
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2003-2004
2004 NHL Eastern Conference Quarter-Finals: NYI vs. TBL | Hockey-Reference.com
2015-2016
2016 NHL Eastern Second Round: NYI vs. TBL | Hockey-Reference.com
2019-2020
2020 NHL Eastern Conference Finals: NYI vs. TBL | Hockey-Reference.com
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All Time Record VS Lightning
| .....................ALL GAMES......................... | .............................HOME............................. | ..............................AWAY............................. | ......................PLAYOFFS.................... |
| W-L-T | WIN% | GFPG | GAPG | W-L-T | WIN% | GFPG | GAPG | W-L-T | WIN% | GFPG | GAPG | W-L | WIN% | GFPG | GAPG |
| 56-66-3 | 46.0 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 31-29-1 | 51.6 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 25-37-2 | 40.6 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 7-15 | 31.8 | 1.8 | 3.1 |
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Possible Starting Goalies:
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Possible Lineups:
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Team Leaders:
Game 1 Recap
Islanders vs. Lightning - Game Recap - June 13, 2021 - ESPN
Game 2 Recap
Islanders vs. Lightning - Game Recap - June 15, 2021 - ESPN
Game 3 Recap
Lightning vs. Islanders - Game Recap - June 17, 2021 - ESPN
Game 4 Recap
Lightning vs. Islanders - Game Recap - June 19, 2021 - ESPN
Game 5 Recap
Islanders vs. Lightning - Game Recap - June 21, 2021 - ESPN
Game 6 Recap/Highlights
Lightning vs. Islanders - Game Recap - June 23, 2021 - ESPN
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Possible Starting Goalies:
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Possible Lineups:
.
.
.
.
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.
Team Leaders:
Game 1 Recap
Islanders vs. Lightning - Game Recap - June 13, 2021 - ESPN
Game 2 Recap
Islanders vs. Lightning - Game Recap - June 15, 2021 - ESPN
Game 3 Recap
Lightning vs. Islanders - Game Recap - June 17, 2021 - ESPN
Game 4 Recap
Lightning vs. Islanders - Game Recap - June 19, 2021 - ESPN
Game 5 Recap
Islanders vs. Lightning - Game Recap - June 21, 2021 - ESPN
Game 6 Recap/Highlights
Lightning vs. Islanders - Game Recap - June 23, 2021 - ESPN
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