Series Discussion: (3) Dallas Stars vs (6) Calgary Flames

[Kahvi]

They keyword is proxy.

I have read a few analyses comparing and contrasting corsi to actual zone time, but it was ages ago and I have no idea where to find them again. But the general gist is that ES corsi strongly correlates to ES possession time, and the minor difference between the two is compensated for by the fact that shot attempts are simply more predictive of future goals.

Yes, a proxy. Good one or bad one. Who decided that it is a good one? My point is that once (if) we get good, reliable possession data based on puck and player tracking, we can reliably review if that proxy is good or not.

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

Yes, a proxy. Good one or bad one. Who decided that it is a good one?

Does it really matter?

What matters is if it's a good predictor of future goals.

We see here:

https://hockeygraphsdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2015/09/newplot.png

That expected goals is a better predictor than corsi, which is a far better predictor than goals, of future goals.

So I don't care if someone wins a faceoff and spends 20 seconds with the puck cycling fruitlessly. I care if my team has more expected goals than the other team.

 

[InfinityIggy]

I was referring to compiled faceoff stats. Actually, in that link I posted four years ago, I said the same thing - that I was referring to the stat, not the skill:

Around the NHL, p.12: Stuff is once again starting to happen!!! ‎

Fair enough, and reading that thread you do seem to be keeping your argument to the stats specifically. I am referring to your entire body of work though, so to speak.

You're stating you're only meaning to argue FO stats though, so I will accept that.

 

[Mobiandi]

In my uneducated, uninformed opinion, I believe that faceoff percentages have about the same meaning as plus/minus. It's worth paying attention to if it swings one way or the other dramatically.

One of the reasons we struggled so much against the Ducks back in 2015 and 2017 is because our FO% was hovering around the 30s, making it impossible to get anything going 5v5.

 

[Kahvi]

Does it really matter?

What matters is if it's a good predictor of future goals.

We see here:

https://hockeygraphsdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2015/09/newplot.png

That expected goals is a better predictor than corsi, which is a far better predictor than goals, of future goals.

Does it matter if some proxy is a good one or a bad one? of course it matters. Analysing day of the week is a really bad proxy for team performance, even though you might get some predictions from there. If shot metrics are a good proxy for goal scoring, I have no problem with that. Saying they are a proxy for possession, thats another thing

And it matters if we are talking about proxy for possession. Semantics, I know, like you said. Real possession date would bring more insight for analytics people, and current shot based metrics could be reviewed based on that data

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

Fair enough, and reading that thread you do seem to be keeping your argument to the stats specifically. I am referring to your entire body of work though, so to speak.

You're stating you're only meaning to argue FO stats though, so I will accept that.

I would never argue that winning any puck battle is useless, and faceoffs are a puck battle. I just think that by using them as a stat, you are diminishing the importance of many, many, many other puck battles, races, takeaways, giveaways, etc that happen on a shift.

 

[InfinityIggy]

I would never argue that winning any puck battle is useless, and faceoffs are a puck battle. I just think that by using them as a stat, you are diminishing the importance of many, many, many other puck battles, races, takeaways, giveaways, etc that happen on a shift.

I partially agree. As a stat on their own it's hard to gather much from them. Other than to identify the outliers in terms of that specific skill (Bergeron, Malhotra etc).

When you treat them as just one of the many 'puck possession/puck battle' stats that I agree do matter, perhaps more; then FO stats are a useful piece of that puzzle.

 

[Kahvi]

Just goes to show how meaningless faceoffs are.

I would never argue that winning any puck battle is useless, and faceoffs are a puck battle.

I mean technically you are correct

But I'm gonna cop out and not start discussion about what's meaningless and what's useless

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

In my uneducated, uninformed opinion, I believe that faceoff percentages have about the same meaning as plus/minus. It's worth paying attention to if it swings one way or the other dramatically.

One of the reasons we struggled so much against the Ducks back in 2015 and 2017 is because our FO% was hovering around the 30s, making it impossible to get anything going 5v5.

The 2015 Flames were simply outtalented by the Ducks. They had one top 4 defenseman on their roster in Brodie, and three bottom pairing guys playing 20+ minutes in Wideman, Russell, and Engelland. Faceoffs wouldn't have moved the needle for that squad.

We outplayed the Ducks in 2017 in almost every regard. We had 53.64% of the scoring chances at 5v5 in that series. The difference was that Gibson stopped 97.99% of all shots he saw 5v5. Our goalies stopped 90.23% of the shots they saw 5v5. Ultimately goaltending let us down and saved the ducks. Ferland and Monahan in particular had some absolutely dangerous 5v5 chances that simply didn't go in on Gibson whereas they were scoring from every angle on Elliott. Faceoffs don't change that.

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

But I'm gonna cop out and not start discussion about what's meaningless and what's useless

Regarding what you quoted, that needs context. I was responding to a post with an image showing faceoff stats. So when I said "faceoffs are meaningless" - I was referring to the stats posted in the quoted post.

 

[Fig]

I didn't know we had a fancy glorified stat for corner puck battles that was treated as more important than other, equally important puck battles.

My point isn't that you want to lose faceoffs.

It's the faceoffs not a useful stat.

I agree with others that faceoffs aren't meaningless. But if you're saying faceoffs stats are like +/- and relatively meaningless? I can live with that.

 

[Rubi]

Analytics guys have argued that faceoffs are massively overvalued for years.

Why faceoffs aren't as important as they're made out to be - TheHockeyNews

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.si.../03/illustrated-review-importance-nhl-faceoff


The relationship between Corsi% and winning faceoffs.



Connecting the Dots: The Importance of Face-offs


OKG isn't being crazy saying that faceoffs are massively overvalued. There are moments in time where you need a faceoff win but most of the time it's not something that makes all that big of a difference.

I have to agree with OKG and Dack.
HOWEVER, that being said, if you win the majority of non-important faceoffs you are more likely to win the important key ones too.

 

[Kahvi]

And for now, something completely different. I didnt watch the first game but I checked the score few times because I didnt sleep well that night and woke up every now and then. 2-0 with Dube scoring both goals looked really good, as well as Anderson scoring that third goal. I was really pissed off with Stars tying the game and Benn scoring the OT winner in the 5th minute of the second OT, and I threw my mouse to the wall in frustration.

And when I finally got up in the morning I was really disappointed about the game. Took me the first cup of coffee until I started thinking that everything I remember might not be correct and some of that might have been a bad dream

 

[HighLifeMan]

Faceoffs are massively important.

They are massively important on the PP.
They are massively important for the PK.
They are massively important for defensive zone draws late in games.

Being strong in the face off dot has always, and will always be an extremely valued skill set in the NHL. Is it a make or break skill? No, but it's importance can't be overlooked.

Last game proved just that... Ward for some reason decides to make Backlund take the defensive zone draw in the last minute of the game on the PK in a game where he was at the time 4 for 20 in the faceoff circle.. Well guess what.. he lost it cleanly and Dallas got possession and created a few scoring chances.

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

Last game proved just that... Ward for some reason decides to make Backlund take the defensive zone draw in the last minute of the game on the PK in a game where he was at the time 4 for 20 in the faceoff circle.. Well guess what.. he lost it cleanly and Dallas got possession and created a few scoring chances.

Do you think Ward should have sent Lucic out instead of Backlund?

Remember when Gulutzan kept sending Brouwer out instead of Backlund because faceoffs?

Backlund is who I trust in that situation. Win or lose the draw.

 

[HighLifeMan]

Do you think Ward should have sent Lucic out instead of Backlund?

Remember when Gulutzan kept sending Brouwer out instead of Backlund because faceoffs?

No, but there was another capable faceoff man on the ice in Lindholm. Strong side or not Backlund was having an atrocious night in the dot, and it almost cost us.

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

No, but there was another capable faceoff man on the ice in Lindholm. Strong side or not Backlund was having an atrocious night in the dot.

I suppose so. If you ask me though, what was egregious in that final sequence was the dman (Forbort? idr) letting the seam pass through to Seguin.

 

[HighLifeMan]

I suppose so. If you ask me though, what was egregious in that final sequence was the dman (Forbort? idr) letting the seam pass through to Seguin.

There was definitely a few decisions/plays in the final moments that had me questioning things and holding my breathe.

Regardless we got the W, and I am sure they have gone over those final minutes heavily on tape.

Let's see how tonight goes!

 

[Bounces R Way]

Faceoffs are meaningless. Goals are meaningless. Hockey is meaningless. Life is meaningless.

#2020mood

 

[Kahvi]

Faceoffs are meaningless. Goals are meaningless. Hockey is meaningless. Life is meaningless.

Honestly it has felt like this since early March, although I would add "everything" to that list of meaningless things

 

[Flames Fanatic]

Do you think Ward should have sent Lucic out instead of Backlund?

Remember when Gulutzan kept sending Brouwer out instead of Backlund because faceoffs?

Backlund is who I trust in that situation. Win or lose the draw.

Honestly, I think that would be a situation where you consider trying to stack the line with both for the faceoff and then have the faceoff guy jump off. It's not a universally good idea, but there are times where it could work.

 

[SKRusty]

I would never argue that winning any puck battle is useless, and faceoffs are a puck battle. I just think that by using them as a stat, you are diminishing the importance of many, many, many other puck battles, races, takeaways, giveaways, etc that happen on a shift.

Your obsession with turning hockey into into numbers is the fundamental flaw because in reality the only stat that matters is the final score.

There is a reason Billy Bean, Tampa, Kyle Dubas and others create great regular season teams but fail to understand the teams failures in the playoffs. What you and they don't get is the playoffs are a completely different game played by a completely different teams.

Tampa and Calgary last year were a perfect example of how irrelevant regular season stats were in the postseason. Everything changes in the playoffs from the how refs call the games differently to how the players play differently. People often refer to this as the intangibles but in many cases it can be seen.

What you, John Chyka, Billy Bean and a myriad of other that believe in advanced stats don't understand is what it takes to win.

First the rules change transforming the game into something completely different.

To be successful in the playoffs players need to be fearless. And there is no tangible way to measure this. I know it sounds simplistic but it is so much more than that. It is that willingness to without a second thought go down to block a Chara slapshot. It is that ability to not give a second thought if you are winning or losing. It is Stevie Y pulling himself up off the ice with one leg and go into the hard areas time after time and prying himself up off the ice. It requires these players to accept the pain and work through it.

This fearlessness is then used hyper-focus for every little detail and never giving up. The best playoff performers... the legends find ways to do this year after year after year. You can not measure or make sense of this ability and there lies how your complete vision of the Calgary team is indeed a fictional story.

 

[Mazatt]

Flames absolutely cannot start game 3 with the same lineup. Lindholm looked great centring a line and seemed impactful in the third in a way I haven't seen all playoffs from him, Gaudreau just looks shaky all around, and Monahan is, imo, the saving grace of that line. If Tkachuk is out the line can get complicated but here are my ideas for augmenting it. My biggest struggle is finding a way for Lindholm to get to centre, but also having Bennett at centre.

Tkachuk - Backlund - Mangiapane
I genuinely considered Dube up there since Mangiapane... he hasn't been underwhelming but he hasn't felt imapctful against Dallas. The third period changed my mind on him though, I feel like this line cycled the best out of any and actually had sustained zone pressure. Shame Tkachuk wasn't there for a lot of it.

Monahan - Bennett - Dube
My biggest thought with this line was keeping Bennett and Dube together and letting Monahan focus more on play up the ice with Bennett taking defensive responsibilities. Monahan can use his modified grit/scoring approach and play the body, but also be more of a threat than Lucic is in the same role. Can also take faceoffs for Bennett.

Lucic - Lindholm - Gaudreau
Giving Gaudreau someone who can make space for him is my biggest thought with this line. Lucic can fulfill that role, and Lindholm is at centre and can hopefully flourish there. Plus this line is still defensively responsible. This all hinges on Gaudreau being able to make a pass tho.

4th line the same.

If Tkachuk is out:

Lucic - Backlund - Mangiapane

Dube - Monahan - Lindholm

Gaudreau - Bennett - Quine/Robinson(?)

Jankowski - Ryan - Rieder

 

[Half Clapper]

Tkachuk needs to put on another 20 lbs of muscle. if he can do that, he will be the best power forward in the show.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

Tkachuk is a gamer. He played in the Memorial Cup with a broken ankle, he won’t be out.