Rumor: 2024 Trade Rumors and Free Agency Thread: Post Deadline

ABasin

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If Landy comes back at a legit Top 6 level, between he and Nuke in the Top 6 the Avs simply would not miss Lehky nearly as much as you think they would.
That's one scenario (an awesome one, hope it happens). What about these other two scenarios?

1) Landeskog comes back playing at a bottom 6 level.

2) Landeskog can't tell if he can come back or not until October, 100 days after the FA period.
 
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LOFIN

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I’m not saying he’s going to take until he’s a UFA to sign. I’m saying he’s going to want to get paid. He’s proven he’s willing to push it to get paid more.
He literally didn't, when he signed for cheaper than Marner after Marner signed his deal, while having a better case than him.
 
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flyfysher

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A ton of interest.

Organizations would buy-in to his style and give the time(2-4 years) to get the right personnel to start playing that way.
Well, I was there the first year, 48 point season so a GM really has to be committed to the process. At least 4 years. Maybe even 5 years to win it all even though the Avs got back to the POs a couple of years thereafter IIRC. So I suspect a lot would ride on ownership’s buy-in too.
 

henchman21

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He literally didn't, when he signed for cheaper than Marner after Marner signed his deal, while having a better case than him.

He signed weeks after Marner and pushed about as close as he could to the start of the season. The Avs held their ground more than Rants decided to give a discount. And Marner had a better case. Marner was coming off a 94 point season with 70 ES points alongside elite defensive play.

Rants will end up at or above MacK by a half or so million, and it will be well deserved. It will also be a discount to what he could have gotten on the open market. All of this can be true, and be reasonable.
 

Pierce Hawthorne

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That's one scenario (an awesome one, hope it happens). What about these other two scenarios?

1) Landeskog comes back playing at a bottom 6 level.

2) Landeskog can't tell if he can come back or not until October, 100 days after the FA period.

The Avs will be operating under the assumption Landy is back next year. The only scenario where this isn't true is if he suffers a setback in the rehab in which case then he's on LTIR again and you don't even have to worry about moving anyone.


Personally if I was a betting man(And I am), I'd bet Landy plays in these playoffs still. Things are slowly ramping up with him already but I have a feeling as soon as they cross over that specific day threshold they have in mind, it's going to go from 1 to 100 real quick.
 
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LOFIN

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He signed weeks after Marner and pushed about as close as he could to the start of the season. The Avs held their ground more than Rants decided to give a discount.
Well that's one way of looking at it, vs seeing Rantanen sign for 2m! less than his closest comparable.
Marner was coming off a 94 point season with 70 ES points alongside elite defensive play.
Rantanen was pacing for 96 points, he only played in 74 games while Marner did a full 82. Marner had 26 goals, Rantanen had 31 (34 pace). And in the playoffs, Marner had 4 points in 7 games vs. Rantanen who had 14 points in 12 games. Frankly, the only case Marner could have against Rantanen was his rookie year, and for Rantanen that was with the 48 point Avs. 2nd and third year of their ELCs, I'd say Rantanen was better than Marner.
Rants will end up at or above MacK by a half or so million, and it will be well deserved. It will also be a discount to what he could have gotten on the open market. All of this can be true, and be reasonable.
If Rantanen signs for 13mil after we do a deep run, I think most people would say that's perfectly good value for him. Him making more than MacKinnon would look silly, but look at what Nylander just signed for lol. And Pastrnak is a pretty good comparable, 1,8 more than him with a two year inflation and cap rising fits the pick as well. It's another thing if this is the smart play for the Avs, many people make good arguments why it's not and they are pretty good ones as well.

I just really don't like your premise of him being a hard guy to negotiate with. I don't think you can make that claim based one negotiation, when that literally happened with 4 other (maybe I'm missing someone as well) big name players at the same time. It was the market that dictated those negotiations. And frankly, I still do think that he can sign for a tad under MacKinnon. But just a tad, between Pasta and MacK.

Sooo, 12x8=96?
 
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Balthazar

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If Rantanen signs for 13mil after we do a deep run, I think most people would say that's perfectly good value for him.
Bednar keeps hammering in interviews that you need depth to have success in the playoffs. Hopefully his GM is listening.
 

henchman21

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Well that's one way of looking at it, vs seeing Rantanen sign for 2m! less than his closest comparable.

Rantanen was pacing for 96 points, he only played in 74 games while Marner did a full 82. Marner had 26 goals, Rantanen had 31 (34 pace). And in the playoffs, Marner had 4 points in 7 games vs. Rantanen who had 14 points in 12 games. Frankly, the only case Marner could have against Rantanen was his rookie year, and for Rantanen that was with the 48 point Avs. 2nd and third year of their ELCs, I'd say Rantanen was better than Marner.

If Rantanen signs for 13mil after we do a deep run, I think most people would say that's perfectly good value for him. Him making more than MacKinnon would look silly, but look at what Nylander just signed for lol. And Pastrnak is a pretty good comparable, 1,8 more than him with a two year inflation and cap rising fits the pick as well. It's another thing if this is the smart play for the Avs, many people make good arguments why it's not and they are pretty good ones as well.

I just really don't like your premise of him being a hard guy to negotiate with. I don't think you can make that claim based one negotiation, when that literally happened with 4 other (maybe I'm missing someone as well) big name players at the same time. It was the market that dictated those negotiations. And frankly, I still do think that he can sign for a tad under MacKinnon. But just a tad, between Pasta and MacK.

Sooo, 12x8=96?
It is basically 1.6m, but we're splitting hairs there. IMO Marner's case was better. Pacing does not equal what actually happens, and defense is an important part of the game.

What I don't get is that holding out through training camp somehow makes Rantanen easy to deal with? You are giving every single benefit of doubt to his side. When he was one of the 3 or 4 longest holdouts of the since ROR (Kuch, Nylander, and I think one I'm forgetting). If you go by the rumors that have floated... the compromise was the Avs cutting off 2 years at the same AAV so he'd hit UFA earlier. They didn't want to go up on AAV. From there the choice was to be as difficult as Nylander (which Rantanen is clearly not) or sign.

I remember people giving me crap saying MacK would end up above McDavid and that he's going to demand that. With 13m being the real starting point. It ended at 12.6 much closer to what I was saying than people praying for 10m. This isn't that different of a situation... Rants is worth about 13.5m on the open market. Maybe a touch more from the right spot, but most teams he'd want to play for are in that range. Like MacK I expect some discount in trade for an 8th year. Which should put it around 13m. Half mil either way wouldn't be shocking. I just do not believe that Rants feels like he has to come in under MacK, and I don't think he will immediately settle for that (nor should he have to).
 

lionsDen

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For shits, imagine they did make that trade I just mentioned at the deadline:

Dowd(@650k) + Lindgren for 2024 1st

Next year we would have:

Nuke - Mack - Mikko
Landy - Mitts - Lehky
Wood - Colton - Kovalenko
LOC - Dowd - ????

Toews - Makar
Girard - Manson
Behrens - ????

George*
Lindgren


And if you assume ~$6M for Mitts. That group would be at ~$85.7M, so roughly $2M left for the remaining spots. Enough space to fill out a 20 man roster for sure.

And quite frankly at that point I'd argue George is the easy move to create the necessary remaining cap space to get to a 22 man roster, and just run Lindgren/Annunen as 1A/1B.



He's saying the opposite of what you think.


He's saying no matter what trades they make to get cap compliant, Colton isn't going to be part of those trades. Meaning he is staying.


Call me crazy but I think you could get a pretty high 1st for him, I'd bet teams like Buffalo, Ottawa, Detroit, Seattle(Especially if they steal Rod), Arizona Utah would all be lining up for him.
Yeah maybe my value was off a little bit haha. He compliments all players he plays with and can play on any line. I balk at a first and b-/ c+ value I understand all the reasons he won’t go(Colton) if they choose Colton over lehky I’m going to become a troll. lol Colton will never love it down
 

henchman21

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No need to be a dick. Welcone to ignore.
I don't think the intent was to be a dick. Just showing that salary has to be cut and there simply isn't anyway around it. $4m has to come off the books with minimal coming back. Or if you go higher amounts you can bring back some salary. There is a contingent here that simply ignores the fiscal reality of the situation. There is nothing against any of these players, it is simply that the Avs cannot continue to afford all of them... to the tune of $4m being gone. There are about 6 different ways that it can go that have various pros and cons. I don't think any of them would really be popular.
 

lionsDen

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Question

Makar is able to re-sign next offseason, are we going to be able to afford both Rantanen and makar?

Has there been any indication how much the cap is going up in25?
 

AllAboutAvs

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Question

Makar is able to re-sign next offseason, are we going to be able to afford both Rantanen and makar?

Has there been any indication how much the cap is going up in25?
Makar cannot re-sign until Jul 1st, 2026
 

henchman21

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Question

Makar is able to re-sign next offseason, are we going to be able to afford both Rantanen and makar?

Has there been any indication how much the cap is going up in25?
The Avs will find a way to do it. Teams just don't let the stars of the team go.

On cap increases, unless the NHLPA and NHL agree otherwise, we are 5% increases through the rest of the CBA (2026). It is not impossible for the parties to agree, but the sticking point is escrow... which has been a non-starter for the PA. We actually would have had a higher cap this year by ~1.5m if the NHLPA agreed to a 3% higher escrow (and they would have gotten that full amount back).
 

LOFIN

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What I don't get is that holding out through training camp somehow makes Rantanen easy to deal with?
Because everyone in that RFA class did. I've tried to hammer down this point multiple times, but it's still not coming through to you. Might as well bring in 1980s negotiations with Grezky if you are bringing up Nylander, Kuch and whatnot. They are not relevant to what the market was for Rantanen and the rest of the RFAs. They were not comparables.
I just do not believe that Rants feels like he has to come in under MacK, and I don't think he will immediately settle for that (nor should he have to).
Well no agent should, but the Avs have the stats to argue their case. The last time they didn't, and a comparable contract didn't exist in any case within the team.

Despite your efforts, there really are no parallels to draw with the upcoming Mikko extension talks and previous negotiations. None.

Bednar keeps hammering in interviews that you need depth to have success in the playoffs. Hopefully his GM is listening.
I'm sure he'd rather have 3 Ross Coltons instead of Rantanen.
 

henchman21

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Because everyone in that RFA class did. I've tried to hammer down this point multiple times, but it's still not coming through to you. Might as well bring in 1980s negotiations with Grezky if you are bringing up Nylander, Kuch and whatnot. They are not relevant to what the market was for Rantanen and the rest of the RFAs. They were not comparables.

Well no agent should, but the Avs have the stats to argue their case. The last time they didn't, and a comparable contract didn't exist in any case within the team.

Despite your efforts, there really are no parallels to draw with the upcoming Mikko extension talks and previous negotiations. None.

And what you don't seem to get is Rantanen took it further than everybody else in that class. Sure there were lots of guys who had big deals coming up, nobody pushed it as far as Rantanen in that class. Only a few have taken it as far as him in the last decade. Somehow Marner signing before camp absolves Rantanen for holding out in your mind and I just don't get that.

Rants has UFA as the card to play. If the Avs don't want to pay him, he can just wait it out. Comparables don't matter all that much in UFA because he can just hit the market. Just look at Nylander this year and Pasta last year. Played through the season and played very well, those teams ended up paying quite a bit more than they were offering in the summers to get the deal done. If the Avs stick on 11.5m, Rants can just play next year and know the Avs will come up... because the alternative is horrible.

If you don't think the last negotiations show the desire to get paid, then I just don't know whatelse to say. We can circle back around on this when Rantanen re-signs.
 

ABasin

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And what you don't seem to get is Rantanen took it further than everybody else in that class. Sure there were lots of guys who had big deals coming up, nobody pushed it as far as Rantanen in that class. Only a few have taken it as far as him in the last decade. Somehow Marner signing before camp absolves Rantanen for holding out in your mind and I just don't get that.

Rants has UFA as the card to play. If the Avs don't want to pay him, he can just wait it out. Comparables don't matter all that much in UFA because he can just hit the market. Just look at Nylander this year and Pasta last year. Played through the season and played very well, those teams ended up paying quite a bit more than they were offering in the summers to get the deal done. If the Avs stick on 11.5m, Rants can just play next year and know the Avs will come up... because the alternative is horrible.

If you don't think the last negotiations show the desire to get paid, then I just don't know whatelse to say. We can circle back around on this when Rantanen re-signs.
Do you think part of the Rantanen negotiations in 2019 were perhaps made more difficult by the Avs being in the situation where MacKinnon was clearly the #1 player, but current (at the time) salary dynamics were dictating that they were going to have to pay Rantanen ~50% more than they were paying MacKinnon? Kind of a "Duchene cap" situation, but significantly worse?
 

henchman21

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Do you think part of the Rantanen negotiations in 2019 were perhaps made more difficult by the Avs being in the situation where MacKinnon was clearly the #1 player, but current (at the time) salary dynamics were dictating that they were going to have to pay Rantanen ~50% more than they were paying MacKinnon? Kind of a "Duchene cap" situation, but significantly worse?
The Avs were clearly willing to go above MacK, they just had a limit. Rumors are that the Avs cut term as the compromise. Same thing they did for Makar.

Sorry, but insinuating that "Math is hard" is being a dick.
Fair enough… the fiscal situation doesn’t seem to get through. Which is basically 4m has to come off the books. Give or take a touch.
 

LOFIN

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And what you don't seem to get is Rantanen took it further than everybody else in that class. Sure there were lots of guys who had big deals coming up, nobody pushed it as far as Rantanen in that class. Only a few have taken it as far as him in the last decade. Somehow Marner signing before camp absolves Rantanen for holding out in your mind and I just don't get that.
When there are literally 5 big name RFA's, and all of them hold out the same way until training camp, and then sign within a week of eachother, that tells you that they were all playing the waiting game and seeing who gives up first. Marner did, and that was basically because of media pressure, when details of his contract negotiations leaked out.

You are saying that Rantanen held out the longest, which is technically true. We are however talking about 3 days longer than Tkachuck, it's not really that long in the grand scheme of things.

I think we absolutely might see Rantanen pull of a Nylander or a Pastrnak, as in willing to wait out. But that has absolutely no relation to what he did in 2019. It has more relation to what Nylander did this year, and what Pastrnak did two years ago.

Look mate, I'm perfectly fine if we just leave it at this. We are not going to agree, and whatever. We are arguing about semantics here. None of this is really that relevant when it comes to how the Avs are dealing or should deal with Mikko. How these playoffs go (both for the team and for him) will determine that by a large degree.
 

ABasin

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Sorry, but insinuating that "Math is hard" is being a dick.
I'm not purposefully trying to demean you or anyone. Are you perhaps being just a trifle over sensitive?

You put forth a roster scenario, I responded by pointing out that it wouldn't mathematically work, and in order for it to work, a current $4M salary needs to go away.

Given that a number of posters in here repeatedly refuse to acknowledge said $4M salary needs to go away for next year's roster to work within the cap, I emphasized that.

I have no idea what the problem is/was. I feel as if this sort of back and forth happens in here all day long, every day.

Sorry if my response offended you.
 
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The Abusement Park

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If the Avs trade Lehky that will close our window.

I'd literally rather play Lehky at 3C than Ross Colton if it came down to losing one of them. They are in different leagues.
If moving on from Lehkonen closes our window then this core isn’t that great.

Lehkonen is awesome. A perfect compliment to the core of this team, but that’s like saying moving on from Palat would’ve closed Tampas window.
 

AllAboutAvs

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And what you don't seem to get is Rantanen took it further than everybody else in that class. Sure there were lots of guys who had big deals coming up, nobody pushed it as far as Rantanen in that class. Only a few have taken it as far as him in the last decade. Somehow Marner signing before camp absolves Rantanen for holding out in your mind and I just don't get that.

Rants has UFA as the card to play. If the Avs don't want to pay him, he can just wait it out. Comparables don't matter all that much in UFA because he can just hit the market. Just look at Nylander this year and Pasta last year. Played through the season and played very well, those teams ended up paying quite a bit more than they were offering in the summers to get the deal done. If the Avs stick on 11.5m, Rants can just play next year and know the Avs will come up... because the alternative is horrible.

If you don't think the last negotiations show the desire to get paid, then I just don't know whatelse to say. We can circle back around on this when Rantanen re-signs.
Maybe the Avs were the difficult ones in this case when considering Mikko got the same term as Marner but for 1.6M less. To me it indicates he did not get paid like you suggest.
 

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