Rumor: 2024 Trade Rumors and Free Agency Thread: Post Deadline

[EdAVSfan]

Nichushkin ($6.125m) - MacKinnon ($12.6m) - Rantanen ($9.25m)
Landeskog ($7m) - Mittelstadt (RFA) - Lehkonen ($4.5m)
Wood ($2.5m) - Colton ($4m) - O'Connor ($1.05m)
Kovalenko ($900k) - Wagner ($775k) - ?1
?2/?3

Toews ($7.25m) - Makar ($9m)
Girard ($5m) - Manson ($4.5m)
?4 - ?5
?6

Georgiev ($3.4m)
Annunen ($840k)

--

That's a $78.7m team without including Mittelstadt's ~$6.5m and filling out 5-6 additional spots which includes an entire third pairing of defense.

Internal/signed options for ?1/?2/?3 = Foudy($850k), Ivan($850k), Pavel($870k), Ritchie(not signed yet)

Internal/signed options for ?4/?5/?6 = Behrens($905k), Malinski($850k)

Assume Mitts at $6.5m and $900k each for the open spots, you're looking at a $91m team.

It... doesn't... work.

I think we’re all in agreement that 1 contract needs to go, well, almost everyone understands that.

I think the Avs can run a little leaner, as in a 22 man roster instead of 23. That could save 900K under your scenario. Once you move one of the 4M+ salaries, drops us to about 86-87.

 

[ABasin]

Nichushkin ($6.125m) - MacKinnon ($12.6m) - Rantanen ($9.25m)
Landeskog ($7m) - Mittelstadt (RFA) - Lehkonen ($4.5m)
Wood ($2.5m) - Colton ($4m) - O'Connor ($1.05m)
Kovalenko ($900k) - Wagner ($775k) - ?1
?2/?3

Toews ($7.25m) - Makar ($9m)
Girard ($5m) - Manson ($4.5m)
?4 - ?5
?6

Georgiev ($3.4m)
Annunen ($840k)

--

That's a $78.7m team without including Mittelstadt's ~$6.5m and filling out 5-6 additional spots which includes an entire third pairing of defense.

Internal/signed options for ?1/?2/?3 = Foudy($850k), Ivan($850k), Pavel($870k), Ritchie(not signed yet)

Internal/signed options for ?4/?5/?6 = Behrens($905k), Malinski($850k)

Assume Mitts at $6.5m and $900k each for the open spots, you're looking at a $91m team.

It... doesn't... work.

It’s almost like people are willfully ignoring the math, as if math itself doesn’t exist. Even when shown again and again and again.

“Oh, a $91M cap number? OK, I’ll just pretend that the Avs didn’t resign Landeskog a few years ago. Voila!”

Bottom line: If Landeskog is on the roster, a current $4M salary needs to be shed. Pick your $4M poison.

I think we’re all in almostagreement that 1 contract needs to go, well, almost everyone understands that.

You sure about that?

 

[UncleRisto]

Bottom line: If Landeskog is on the roster, a current $4M salary needs to be shed. Pick your $4M poison.

Colton. Next.

 

[NorthernAvsFan]

If the old war horse Jack Johnson wants to come back for 800K he can play on the bottom pair again.

Keep doing it until the wheels fall off, and then replace at the deadline, if necessary.

 

[EdAVSfan]

It’s almost like people are willfully ignoring the math, as if math itself doesn’t exist. Even when shown again and again and again.

“Oh, a $91M cap number? OK, I’ll just pretend that the Avs didn’t resign Landeskog a few years ago. Voila!”

Bottom line: If Landeskog is on the roster, a current $4M salary needs to be shed. Pick your $4M poison.


You sure about that?

I should’ve emphasized “almost” a little more

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I could see the Avs running a 22 man roster instead of 23, especially if they have someone who can play spot duty at both F and D like they had going on with MacDermid. Caleb Jones played a couple games at F this year so perhaps that's what they decide to do with him and bring him back as the 7D and 14F role next year.



But otherwise ya, that still only creates $800k in additional room. What we really need is the Leafs to make the cup finals to generate as much additional league revenue as possible, and get the cap up to like $89M instead of $87.7M.

 

[henchman21]

Colton. Next.

Find a team that has traded for a top 9 center, signed him to term, and then moved him within a year.

I could see the Avs running a 22 man roster instead of 23, especially if they have someone who can play spot duty at both F and D like they had going on with MacDermid. Caleb Jones played a couple games at F this year so perhaps that's what they decide to do with him and bring him back as the 7D and 14F role next year.



But otherwise ya, that still only creates $800k in additional room. What we really need is the Leafs to make the cup finals to generate as much additional league revenue as possible, and get the cap up to like $89M instead of $87.7M.

The issue is less HRR but more the MOU that dictates only a 5% raise unless otherwise negotiated. Which is code for increased escrow.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

What are you even talking about? This was already acknowledged. If Mikko doesn’t do a S&T, the return isn’t likely going to be what many believe. In fact, it may be so underwhelming that the Avs would consider its worth keeping him for the last year. That is unless, the simply trade him for an underwhelming return where mgt agrees with many here that the main benefit is cap space.

You said CMac had nothing to do with it. I was just arguing he does:

1. He can decide to extend him this summer.
2. He can decide not to sign him at all and let him walk to FA
3. He can trade him to any team that is not on his NT list without his consent
4. He can try to convince him to accept a trade to one of the teams that is on his NT list
5. He can try to convince him to sign and be traded to any team

Obviously some of these options are better than others. I have never argued otherwise. Everybody knows he would maximize his value going to FA. And I think most here knows as well that the Avs wouldn't get as much if he is traded without an extension in place. You made it sounds like CMac could only sit back and accepts whatever Mikko wanted to do. I disagreed. Let's move on, shall we?

 

[henchman21]

Sure, but good luck attracting another FA for quite some time.

Trading him one year after signing him won't sit well when we're already not an attractive destination for UFAs. We haven't signed a $4m AAV UFA in a long time(I don't count re-signing Manson).

Dumping our most expensive UFA signing in years won't go over well with agents.

And right before his NTC hits.

 

[RoyIsALegend]

And right before his NTC hits.

Honestly forgot we traded for him!

 

[GeoRox89]

Sure, but good luck attracting another FA for quite some time.

Trading him one year after signing him won't sit well when we're already not an attractive destination for UFAs. We haven't signed a $4m AAV UFA in a long time(I don't count re-signing Manson).

Dumping our most expensive UFA signing in years won't go over well with agents.

Colton was an RFA with one year left we traded for but otherwise I agree

 

[RoyIsALegend]

Colton was an RFA with one year left we traded for but otherwise I agree

Yep, my bad, I forgot!

I don't see him getting traded. Avs worked hard to get the center depth (1-2-3C) along with having a strong top 4/5 D core.

 

[UncleRisto]

Sure, but good luck attracting another FA for quite some time.

Trading him one year after signing him won't sit well when we're already not an attractive destination for UFAs. We haven't signed a $4m AAV UFA in a long time(I don't count re-signing Manson).

Dumping our most expensive UFA signing in years won't go over well with agents.

Find a team that has traded for a top 9 center, signed him to term, and then moved him within a year.

That is true... I would move Manson regardless, but the defense is going to be bad.

 

[henchman21]

Teams don’t just spend a year rebuilding the center position to trade it away. I get that Colton is the guy who has the least attachment and isn’t the highest impact. It is just a move that is not made in the NHL.

Oh, right... I would move Manson regardless, but the defense is going to be bad.

The issue with moving Manson is his replacement. I think he’s the guy I’d try to move first, but I don’t see that RD spot being easy/cheap to fill. Maybe you term out Walker to save a bit, but we’re not talking 3m. Maybe 1m. Or you deal with that spot being shit until the deadline and just understand you’re trading a first. Which I think is a fairly viable path, but would be very against what the Avs have prioritized.

 

[John Mandalorian]

You said CMac had nothing to do with it. I was just arguing he does:

1. He can decide to extend him this summer.
2. He can decide not to sign him at all and let him walk to FA
3. He can trade him to any team that is not on his NT list without his consent
4. He can try to convince him to accept a trade to one of the teams that is on his NT list
5. He can try to convince him to sign and be traded to any team

Obviously some of these options are better than others. I have never argued otherwise. Everybody knows he would maximize his value going to FA. And I think most here knows as well that the Avs wouldn't get as much if he is traded without an extension in place. You made it sounds like CMac could only sit back and accepts whatever Mikko wanted to do. I disagreed. Let's move on, shall we?

Does everyone know that? Based on the majority of comments, it doesn't seem that way at all. If people realized this, it wouldnt be such an effort to explain how head-in-the-clouds the S&T scenario is. Just for clarity, the S&T scenario isnt impossible but its extremely unlikely. Yet people talk about S&T matter-of-factly like its an assumed reality.

 

[UncleRisto]

Teams don’t just spend a year rebuilding the center position to trade it away. I get that Colton is the guy who has the least attachment and isn’t the highest impact. It is just a move that is not made in the NHL.

Takes them down to Rantanen or gutting the defense if they can't move Colton or Wood for fear of being the Golden Knights. Wood is completely replaceable immediately. Colton playing behind MacK and Mittelstadt is replaceable internally. Lehkonen is an option, but I don't see it.

 

[henchman21]

Takes them down to Rantanen or gutting the defense if they can't move Colton or Wood for fear of being the Golden Knights. Wood is completely replaceable immediately. Colton playing behind MacK and Mittelstadt is replaceable internally. Lehkonen is an option, but I don't see it.

Wood is a hard contract to move just due to term. Worth exploring.

I don’t see Colton as replaceable internally. I know people will point to Ritchie, but he’s not at all a similar style of player and the Avs desire Colton’s style in the bottom 6. Nor would it do Ritchie any good to play that role. He’s much more likely to spot in at wing in the top 6 than anywhere in the bottom 6.

Lehky would suck to lose, but after Wood or Manson, he makes the most sense. Arguably more sense given his value. There are potential replacements in the system. He saves the right amount of money. He recoups assets instead of spending them.

Or just play the LTIR game. There will be options.

 

[UncleRisto]

I don’t see Colton as replaceable internally. I know people will point to Ritchie, but he’s not at all a similar style of player and the Avs desire Colton’s style in the bottom 6. Nor would it do Ritchie any good to play that role. He’s much more likely to spot in at wing in the top 6 than anywhere in the bottom 6.

Yes, he isn't in that sense. I wasn't even necessarily looking at Ritchie, I just think anyone could technically play there. It does beg the question, would they rather move Lehkonen and replace him with whoever, or Colton the center.

 

[Hasbro]

If the old war horse Jack Johnson wants to come back for 800K he can play on the bottom pair again.

Keep doing it until the wheels fall off, and then replace at the deadline, if necessary.

The Penguins will still be paying him.

 

[RoyIsALegend]

The Penguins will still be paying him.

AND the year after. He's getting paid by Pittsburgh until June 30, 2026.

This is so amazing.

 

[henchman21]

Yes, he isn't in that sense. I wasn't even necessarily looking at Ritchie, I just think anyone could technically play there. It does beg the question, would they rather move Lehkonen and replace him with whoever, or Colton the center.

Ideally I think they want to move neither and would investigate other routes (like Manson), but push came to shove, Lehky moves before Colton. Just simply because you have Drouin who may re-sign cheaper than Lehky, Kovalenko who the Avs have a tendency to overproject prospects in a role, and Ritchie who could get his feet wet as a 2nd line wing all just sitting there. Nobody can really replace Colton's style/role.

I think the Avs will explore a lot of other routes before that choice (including lowballing Mitts) and maybe find a way to make it work, but Lehky will be higher up the list than I think most expect.

 

[GeoRox89]

Teams don’t just spend a year rebuilding the center position to trade it away. I get that Colton is the guy who has the least attachment and isn’t the highest impact. It is just a move that is not made in the NHL.



The issue with moving Manson is his replacement. I think he’s the guy I’d try to move first, but I don’t see that RD spot being easy/cheap to fill. Maybe you term out Walker to save a bit, but we’re not talking 3m. Maybe 1m. Or you deal with that spot being shit until the deadline and just understand you’re trading a first. Which I think is a fairly viable path, but would be very against what the Avs have prioritized.

My worry with moving Manson and not replacing him until the deadline is you can already book it that Cale will miss 5-20+ games next year. Without Manson that leaves us vulnerable to playing a sizeable chunk of the season with Malinski or a replacement level bottom pairing guy as the top RHD

I still think best case scenario is we see Gabe back in the playoffs at a level where it’s clear that he’s not going to be ready to be back full time next year and he either LTIRetires (no one is batting an eye at that surgery not working well enough) or spends all next season on LTIR again targeting a playoff return because he ‘had a setback and had to start at square one’ like they’ve been talking about all year. You just hope to hell they manage to get him and the team that second Cup that makes sitting out all year (or retiring ) more palatable.

That or we get back 80% Landy and just deal with having to let go of Lehky even though I’d hate to see it but that level of return from Gabe replaces him pretty well (career wise his production is something like 25% higher in the playoffs so it’s not like we’re replacing a clutch guy with a floater). Bednar’s system works best when they have at least 2 of Landy/Nuke/Lehky for the top 6 to be the gritty forechecking hardworking guy

 

[RoyIsALegend]

I still think best case scenario is we see Gabe back in the playoffs at a level where it’s clear that he’s not going to be ready to be back full time next year and he either LTIRetires (no one is batting an eye at that surgery not working well enough) or spends all next season on LTIR again targeting a playoff return because he ‘had a setback and had to start at square one’ like they’ve been talking about all year. You just hope to hell they manage to get him and the team that second Cup that makes sitting out all year (or retiring ) more palatable.

How is the best case scenario that our captain can't play hockey?

 

[dahrougem2]

I mention again, though, that drafting Ritchie allows the Avs to move Colton given we also acquired Mittelstadt.

It would be one thing if there was no 37 but the Avs have their top two centers. Obviously strange to acquire a guy only to trade him a year later but the salary cap is a real thing.

I am of the belief that the Avs management values players who fit into the style of play Bednar wants over positional depth (i.e needing three centers before looking at wingers). In that sense, Lehkonen >>>>> Colton.

I still think it will be Manson who goes because of how that contract was structured but if it comes down to 62 vs 20 I pray CMac chooses to keep 62. I actually feel quite strongly that he will, too, because of the Ritchie option.

 

[henchman21]

My worry with moving Manson and not replacing him until the deadline is you can already book it that Cale will miss 5-20+ games next year. Without Manson that leaves us vulnerable to playing a sizeable chunk of the season with Malinski or a replacement level bottom pairing guy as the top RHD

I still think best case scenario is we see Gabe back in the playoffs at a level where it’s clear that he’s not going to be ready to be back full time next year and he either LTIRetires (no one is batting an eye at that surgery not working well enough) or spends all next season on LTIR again targeting a playoff return because he ‘had a setback and had to start at square one’ like they’ve been talking about all year. You just hope to hell they manage to get him and the team that second Cup that makes sitting out all year (or retiring ) more palatable.

That or we get back 80% Landy and just deal with having to let go of Lehky even though I’d hate to see it but that level of return from Gabe replaces him pretty well (career wise his production is something like 25% higher in the playoffs so it’s not like we’re replacing a clutch guy with a floater). Bednar’s system works best when they have at least 2 of Landy/Nuke/Lehky for the top 6 to be the gritty forechecking hardworking guy

I have the same concern with moving Manson, but I also don't think Manson is irreplaceable.

IMO we see a roster similar to this (not my personal preference, just my expectation):

Nuke-MacK-Rants
Landy-Mitts-Ritchie
Wood-Colton-LOC
Kovy-Foudy-Vet
Vet

Toews-Makar
Girard-Manson
Behrens-Lyubushkin
Malinski

George
Annunen

I mention again, though, that drafting Ritchie allows the Avs to move Colton given we also acquired Mittelstadt.

It would be one thing if there was no 37 but the Avs have their top two centers. Obviously strange to acquire a guy only to trade him a year later but the salary cap is a real thing.

I am of the belief that the Avs management values players who fit into the style of play Bednar wants over positional depth (i.e needing three centers before looking at wingers). In that sense, Lehkonen >>>>> Colton.

I still think it will be Manson who goes because of how that contract was structured but if it comes down to 62 vs 20 I pray CMac chooses to keep 62. I actually feel quite strongly that he will, too, because of the Ritchie option.

Ritchie's style doesn't at all mesh with what Bednar wants out of his bottom 6.