Speculation: 2024 Off-Season Thread

[Stammertime91]

Cirelli's doesn't kick in until next year, extra trade value there.

Thats an extra 1.24 Selke-meter points in trade value.

 

[Sky04]

Thats an extra 1.24 Selke-meter points in trade value.

His only argument is his defense so why don't we just trade him and get a 6M defenseman instead, would do wonders.

 

[ccman68]

cirelli has negative trade value i have no idea how you people think we’re trading him.

 

[Soul Assumption]

Stammer-Paul-Kuch
Hagel-Cirelli-Point
?-?-?
Motte-Glendening-Eyssimont

Hedman-Cernak
Serg-?
Lilleberg-Raddysh

And you have like 10 million for the whole 3rd line+top 4 RD

 

[Stammertime91]

cirelli has negative trade value i have no idea how you people think we’re trading him.

Strongly disagree. I think you overestimate scouting departments and GMs. GMs get fleeced all the time. I mean, its.comical to keep bringing him into the fold but look at Jeannot. GMs overpay for what they believe their team lacks/needs all the time. A team like Toronto would absolutely cream their loser panties to get Cirelli. The amount of teams that would have interest in Cirelli is more than we'd guess. I imagine every team with 4M in cap space would call to see what it would take.

Not just that, he's a very good player. Make no mistake, Cirelli is a damn good hockey player with two key contributions to winning a cup. The "issue" here is that he's no longer sub 4M and on a team with cap space. Things have changed but his production hasn't moved the needle to cement his place here (at least, in our eyes). I've been beating the drum for nearly three years and nothing has changed. He's a 2.5C and a luxury on this team. Just because he's a luxury here which is why we have become so annoyed at times, doesn't mean he's not a legit 2C on other teams that need one. Cirelli in no way imaginable has negative trade value.

Sergachev, Cirelli, and Cernak, in that order have a hell of a lot of trade value if JBB started taking offers. Cirelli easily gets a top 4 defenseman in a "hockey trade."

Also, I'm not saying we should've held onto Killorn or Palat, but... if we had traded Cirelli or do trade him, imagine Palat or Killorn still on the team with Hagel on the second line. Top six suddenly looks much better. At this point, I'm fine with creating duos in the lineup like Stamkos/Kuch and Point/Hagel, but Cirelli has been and is the odd man out. Other players can kill penalties. Hagel is just as good defensively. He's more of a hound than Cirelli is these days. Cirelli absolutely fetches a top 4 defenseman. That one move elevates the 2024-2025 Lightning over this team.

 

[LightningStrikes]

So we let Stamkos walk, trade Cirelli and Cernak and sign Reinhart, McMichael and Hronek.

Am I doing this right?

 

[Outl4w]

So we let Stamkos walk, trade Cirelli and Cernak and sign Reinhart, McMichael and Hronek.

Am I doing this right?

Knowing Jbb we will sign some Canadian enforcers and old guys that are past their primes and call it a day.

 

[RussianGuyovich]

im ok with blowing it all up, it's ok to not be good for awhile. i dont want to be the penguins and capitals getting blown out in the first round every year and parading out the corpses of hedman and stamkos for the next 5 years.

if there is a deal to be made, trade everyone not named cirelli/serge/vasy/kucherov, imo. and lets build through the draft.

 

[Tampa22]

This would never happen, so I dream in peace... Nobody mess with my team, pure heart and cheap, I promise a discount in ticket prices!

Hagel - B. Tkachuk - Kucherov
M. Foligno - Stamkos - Coleman
Hathaway - Kunin - Eyssimont
Imama - Glendening - Duhaime

Hedman - Shenn
Gilbert - Cernak
Tucker - Middleton

 

[Hoek]

16 teams is half the league. I think the bottom teams on his "no" list and the top teams will not trade for him so it's not easy.

He shouldn't feel particularly married to playing for us at this point. Barely plays and we're a non contender, I bet he waives for any place that'll actually play him.

 

[Coopers Gum]

I'm on the trade Cirelli for D train. We need a better bottom 6 too.

Look at our strengths vs weaknesses right now:

Strengths: Top 6
Weaknesses: Bottom 6, defense, depth, draft capital

We can get into specifics after that like we need a large, puck-moving RHD, or a power forward or whatever, but sports deals are pretty much always made trading a strength to improve a weakness.

The last month or so of the regular season tricked us into believing we were a better team than we actually are. This team was never making it to a cup final, for example. The defense is too atrocious. We need better D, and more depth scoring. Those are the two things that torched us in the regular season, and failed us further in this last playoff series. To get those things, we need to give up pretty much the only thing we have, which is a little depth on top (celery). Not saying trading him will get us everything we need, but it's a step. We all know top-heavy teams don't make it far in this sport. Better depth all around = more success for any team.

 

[DFC]

cirelli has negative trade value i have no idea how you people think we’re trading him.

Lol his trade value isnt close to negative. Although I agree we aren't trading him.

I really think we got spoiled with good contracts and are out of touch with how much players make in this league. Not the bargain contracts, but the market value contracts.

 

[ccman68]

Lol his trade value isnt close to negative. Although I agree we aren't trading him.

I really think we got spoiled with good contracts and are out of touch with how much players make in this league. Not the bargain contracts, but the market value contracts.

If he had a year or two left on his contract it would be fine but no one is trading for a middle 6 forward who is a bit overpaid for the next million years

 

[Flat Ronnie]

im ok with blowing it all up, it's ok to not be good for awhile. i dont want to be the penguins and capitals getting blown out in the first round every year and parading out the corpses of hedman and stamkos for the next 5 years.

if there is a deal to be made, trade everyone not named cirelli/serge/vasy/kucherov, imo. and lets build through the draft.

What corps of Hedman and Stamkos? They're 33 and 34 and in great shape. Stamkos literally played like one of the top players in the league for the past 30 games.

 

[DFC]

If he had a year or two left on his contract it would be fine but no one is trading for a middle 6 forward who is a bit overpaid for the next million years

Teams like guys in their mid twenties to have term.

We didnt get a discount on Cirelli but we would have no problem moving him for value.

 

[Maelmoor]

For me it's not a rebuild or "blowing it all up" if you keep the core of "older" player's. I'm not advocating that myself, but just saying.

I still think we can be competitive with some adjustments, but yeah, changes are needed both for defense and forward depth, which won't be easy and will definitely come at some cost.

 

[Flat Ronnie]

Couple things:

1) Can we have a little nuance with the TDL deals. Both Dumba and Duclair played a big role (whether in the locker room or on the ice) in getting us on a run and into the playoffs. JBB had scraps to work with and he was able to accomplish that. At the same time, both guys bombed in the playoffs and contributed nothing. Both can be true.

2) I don't think it's that we didn't have any depth, it's that we have the wrong depth. Sheary, Jeannot and Duclair were literal scratches in the playoffs. That's brutal. These are your depth guys. On paper, these guys should have been able to make somewhat of a difference. Instead they literally did nothing. Replacing them should be a top priority this year.

3) Sheading salary to make room for Stamkos and replace the above players is the top priority. If you want to bring Duclair back fine. But I wouldn't pay him shit. Sheary HAS TO go. He is a scratch. Jeannot and Cirelli I would look at as cap relief.

 

[DFC]

I'm on the trade Cirelli for D train. We need a better bottom 6 too.

Look at our strengths vs weaknesses right now:

Strengths: Top 6
Weaknesses: Bottom 6, defense, depth, draft capital

We can get into specifics after that like we need a large, puck-moving RHD, or a power forward or whatever, but sports deals are pretty much always made trading a strength to improve a weakness.

The last month or so of the regular season tricked us into believing we were a better team than we actually are. This team was never making it to a cup final, for example. The defense is too atrocious. We need better D, and more depth scoring. Those are the two things that torched us in the regular season, and failed us further in this last playoff series. To get those things, we need to give up pretty much the only thing we have, which is a little depth on top (celery). Not saying trading him will get us everything we need, but it's a step. We all know top-heavy teams don't make it far in this sport. Better depth all around = more success for any team.

There are no good answers. I think the Cirelli option should be on the table but losing him crushes our depth even more.

Our top-six is... ok? It's our top line that's good, but the our second line tends to be below average. And as good as Stamkos has been for the past two months, he was pretty ineffective 5v5 until the tdl. It's just hard to imagine our offense being driven by more than one line.

the cap has gutted us. It was inevitable and we put it off longer than anyone thought we could. But it caught up to his and here we are.

 

[Flat Ronnie]

There are no good answers. I think the Cirelli option should be on the table but losing him crushes our depth even more.

Our top-six is... ok? It's our top line that's good, but the our second line tends to be below average. And as good as Stamkos has been for the past two months, he was pretty ineffective 5v5 until the tdl. It's just hard to imagine our offense being driven by more than one line.

the cap has gutted us. It was inevitable and we put it off longer than anyone thought we could. But it caught up to his and here we are.

You're talking 30 games. I wouldnt short change that. Also, that second line was great the last couple months.

Our top 6 is good enough. However, you let Stamkos walk and it's all over. Our Top two line have barely ever been running on all cylinders, even during the cup runs.

 

[Point21]

Looking at the free agency this offseason... no real names stick out that seem like cheapish options for the bottom 6 that likely make it to FA. but there are a few names i wouldnt mind seeing us take a shot at if we have the cap to do it.

Sam Lafferty
Travis Boyd
Colin Blackwell
Ryan Carpenter
AJ Greer
Brandon Duhaime
Kasperi Kapanen
Sam Carrick

 

[flying squirrel]

Stammer-Paul-Kuch
Hagel-Cirelli-Point
?-?-?
Motte-Glendening-Eyssimont

Hedman-Cernak
Serg-?
Lilleberg-Raddysh

And you have like 10 million for the whole 3rd line+top 4 RD

No bad.......

Dang it, hate this part!!!! But Point is answer keep coming back too: when it comes to what big contracts should be moved,. Point, for many reasons just is not the defensive pest, offensive difference maker, or player he was when Lightning were killing it. Have only witnessed Point looking Mr. Playoff for one month in last 2 seasons (Push for playoff after trade deadline this yr). In our house, we always give injured players benefit of doubt until enough time passes because that's fair thing to do. Seems enough time as passed to asked what happened to Mr. Playoffs?

 

[Sky04]

There are no good answers. I think the Cirelli option should be on the table but losing him crushes our depth even more.

Our top-six is... ok? It's our top line that's good, but the our second line tends to be below average. And as good as Stamkos has been for the past two months, he was pretty ineffective 5v5 until the tdl. It's just hard to imagine our offense being driven by more than one line.

the cap has gutted us. It was inevitable and we put it off longer than anyone thought we could. But it caught up to his and here we are.

How? 40 point players are a dime a dozen. The problem is NOT having depth because he costs 6.25m and produces less than that value.

The cap isn't what's hurting us, it's holding onto contracts that aren't providing value. We have outs on all of Sergachev, Cirelli and Cernak contracts should we need to move them. If we want to sit on an iffy-defensive 8.5M dman playing a #2 role and no PP time and a 6.25M 3rd line center then yeah we're shooting ourselves in the foot.

 

[LTIR Trickery]

You know, looking at the series and how things went it gets you thinking about what happened toward the end of the season and the compounding problems it caused, and the few bright spots it let shine:

- Fleury was a much bigger loss than expected, not because of his talent level, but more for who was behind him in waiting. Really hurt to lose him, hurt even more in the way we lost him, and having someone you can really trust to eat at least 15 a night in the playoffs is huge.
- Duclair really left a bad taste in the mouth. 2 points and a -3 for a player that was the needed depth scoring this team leaned on down the stretch. There is a lack of killer instinct from him and it showed in a big way, especially as the games against FLA got heavier - he was glued to the bench. While this team needs depth scoring, it needs it for the entirety of the season.
- Jeannot, I don't know what else needs to be said but we go from 5 picks and extending him for 2.3? 2.5? only to see him play 10, 8, 10, and 7 minutes in the Florida series including sitting him for a game. He did nothing to move the needle or give you the impression we're "hard to play against". He can't skate, he can't seem to make any plays, he had two opportunities coming down the slot last night that went straight through him. Waste of a roster spot. At least Patty, Perry and whoever could give you a good banger shift, generate a few shots, and keep depth on the other team gasping for air.
- Lilleberg/Crozier/Chaffee - actually very impressed by the 3 of them. They had some big tasks taking on a very deep Panthers team and they got abused in spots as 3 kids are going to against a deep team of vets, but overall I think they played very well and really give you something to look forward to with them.
- They still need to find someone that can split work with Vasy. They've were in such a bad spot at the start of the year that they once again ran the brakes off of him. He didn't even get rehab starts, they threw him straight into the crease and it showed for the first month. Its also very clearly the MO of all these teams to throw junk on net from a distance and without anyone willing to do some real shot blocking and not give up open lanes to throw pucks by, it'll continue to be a problem.
- I really wish I knew where Perbix went wrong and when he turned into a pillow.

How? 40 point players are a dime a dozen. The problem is NOT having depth because he costs 6.25m and produces less than that value.

The cap isn't what's hurting us, it's holding onto contracts that aren't providing value. We have outs on all of Sergachev, Cirelli and Cernak contracts should we need to move them. If we want to sit on an iffy-defensive 8.5M dman playing a #2 role and no PP time and a 6.25M 3rd line center then yeah we're shooting ourselves in the foot.

2023-24 Active NHL Players - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

2023-24 NHL players who are currently active in the league

www.capfriendly.com

They might be a "dime a dozen" but they certainly don't cost a dime.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Couple things:

1) Can we have a little nuance with the TDL deals. Both Dumba and Duclair played a big role (whether in the locker room or on the ice) in getting us on a run and into the playoffs. JBB had scraps to work with and he was able to accomplish that. At the same time, both guys bombed in the playoffs and contributed nothing. Both can be true.

2) I don't think it's that we didn't have any depth, it's that we have the wrong depth. Sheary, Jeannot and Duclair were literal scratches in the playoffs. That's brutal. These are your depth guys. On paper, these guys should have been able to make somewhat of a difference. Instead they literally did nothing. Replacing them should be a top priority this year.

3) Sheading salary to make room for Stamkos and replace the above players is the top priority. If you want to bring Duclair back fine. But I wouldn't pay him shit. Sheary HAS TO go. He is a scratch. Jeannot and Cirelli I would look at as cap relief.

1. Dumba slotted the defense better for a bit and probably made the dressing room better, but his on ice play wasn't good especially as the end of regular season got closer and in the playoffs. Duclair was very good in the regular season but slowed during the final week or two and his game isn't really made for the playoffs

 

[Flat Ronnie]

1. Dumba slotted the defense better for a bit and probably made the dressing room better, but his on ice play wasn't good especially as the end of regular season got closer and in the playoffs. Duclair was very good in the regular season but slowed during the final week or two and his game isn't really made for the playoffs

Thays pretty much what I said lol