GDT: 2024 NHL Sharks Lottery Draft (update: We won! Sharks will pick 1st for the first time ever!)

[Juxtaposer]

Compared to last year, Celebrini is below Bedard and above Smith. But where do folks think Celebrini falls in comparison to Carlsson and Fantilli, i.e.., if he was in last year's draft, where would he have gotten picked?

Hard to say between Mack, Carlsson, and Fantilli. I don’t really think there’s a wrong answer between them. I’m a little biased, but I like Celebrini the most on account of his high hockey IQ and plus-plus defensive game, though he doesn’t have the physical tools of the other two.

 

[sampler]

Clutterbuck is about done as a NHLer plus you’ve got players like him on the roster kinda of redundant. I like the idea of Duke coming back Dallas is up against the cap and Pavs lack of foot speed was real evident in the Vegas series so it’s possible the stars let him walk

I strongly expect Duke back. Could be the one big term grier hands out. Guy in his prime, good speed.

Thing about guys like clutterbuck is that any flyer on a guy like that has to be cheap. throwing big money for no reason at all is just dumb.

Basically sign 3-4 top end UFA's for way to much in exchange for 1-2 year term? march 2 yrs, 18M? Montour 2 yrs 16M? similar for Demelo. 2 yr 14M for stephenson?

it will be hard to land anyone, but for enough $$$? and if they dont hand out term over 2 years, then whats the downside? if they suck, they suck. if they play well, then youve rented them while the kids ply their trade.

 

[dmcccdmn]

Just saw that you guys won, congratulations. Can't tell you how happy I am for you Sharks fans.

All the best in the draft and the upcoming season.

I think fans of 31 teams all thought "Thank god!" when Chicago didn't win Celebrini as well. It remained to be seen whether Bedard + Demidov is the new Crosby + Malkin.

 

[sampler]

Don't start sprinting when you're only halfway through the marathon.

I get the philosophy, but you gotta spend somehow?

I suppose the other option is to trade cap space for even more prospects/picks by taking on bad short term deals for cash strapped contenders. Blah...

Personally, I dunno if the fan base will forgive another year like this one. The tank was empty, the culture was toxic. Obviously, there is optimism getting super lucky with mack, but they need to build a winning culture and you dont do that by adding players with the full expectation you will stink.

They also need to start adding the next base this summer. Having 60M in space next summer is not good. Rarely is there 60M worth of talent that you can and want to land. I think this summer can be a mix of respectable long term deals with short term overpaid 1-2 yr deals.

 

[Cas]

I get the philosophy, but you gotta spend somehow?

I suppose the other option is to trade cap space for even more prospects/picks by taking on bad short term deals for cash strapped contenders. Blah...

Personally, I dunno if the fan base will forgive another year like this one. The tank was empty, the culture was toxic. Obviously, there is optimism getting super lucky with mack, but they need to build a winning culture and you dont do that by adding players with the full expectation you will stink.

They also need to start adding the next base this summer. Having 60M in space next summer is not good. Rarely is there 60M worth of talent that you can and want to land. I think this summer can be a mix of respectable long term deals with short term overpaid 1-2 yr deals.

We don't have to spend $30 million.

 

[TheBigDrunkPanda]

I strongly expect Duke back. Could be the one big term grier hands out. Guy in his prime, good speed.

Thing about guys like clutterbuck is that any flyer on a guy like that has to be cheap. throwing big money for no reason at all is just dumb.

Basically sign 3-4 top end UFA's for way to much in exchange for 1-2 year term? march 2 yrs, 18M? Montour 2 yrs 16M? similar for Demelo. 2 yr 14M for stephenson?

it will be hard to land anyone, but for enough $$$? and if they dont hand out term over 2 years, then whats the downside? if they suck, they suck. if they play well, then youve rented them while the kids ply their trade.

Montour is if you’re pushing for the playoffs, Demelo that’s an absurd waste of money lol. No guarantee that Macklin is playing in the NHL yet so there’s that

 

[LadyStanley]

 

[Lebanezer]

The next 2 seasons should be viewed as developmental seasons, spent establishing culture and providing experience to not only the young players with elite potential, but guys like Gushchin, Bordeleau, Graf, Thrun etc. to see if they have what it takes to be high level NHLers and part of the future. Filling the roster with aging veterans, in positions where it's not necessary (i.e. Forward, I'd sign every FA defensemen on the planet right now), doesn't serve any real purpose. The goal is establishing long term success and hopefully winning a championship.

 

[norcaltactics]

So stoked!

 

[YUPPY 2 7 10 11]

1 Celebrini
14 Trevor Connelly? No, GMMG would not pick a kid with a questionable off the ice issue?

DRAFT	ROUND 1	ROUND 2	ROUND 3	ROUND 4	ROUND 5	ROUND 6	ROUND 7
2024	#1 #14	#33 #42	2024 NHL Draft - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps	2024 NHL Draft - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps	2024 NHL Draft - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps	2024 NHL Draft - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

 

[The Nemesis]

1 Celebrini
14 Trevor Connelly? No, GMMG would not pick a kid with a questionable off the ice issue?

DRAFT	ROUND 1	ROUND 2	ROUND 3	ROUND 4	ROUND 5	ROUND 6	ROUND 7
2024	#1 #14	#33 #42	2024 NHL Draft - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps	2024 NHL Draft - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps	2024 NHL Draft - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps	2024 NHL Draft - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

I'm not touching Connelly with a 10 foot pole.

 

[The Nemesis]

I get the philosophy, but you gotta spend somehow?

I suppose the other option is to trade cap space for even more prospects/picks by taking on bad short term deals for cash strapped contenders. Blah...

Personally, I dunno if the fan base will forgive another year like this one. The tank was empty, the culture was toxic. Obviously, there is optimism getting super lucky with mack, but they need to build a winning culture and you dont do that by adding players with the full expectation you will stink.

They also need to start adding the next base this summer. Having 60M in space next summer is not good. Rarely is there 60M worth of talent that you can and want to land. I think this summer can be a mix of respectable long term deals with short term overpaid 1-2 yr deals.

You don't have to spend to the cap. Or anywhere near it.

You buy trade assets. Guys like Duclair that are open to short-term contracts at reasonable values or discounts because they need to rehab their reputation after a down year or coming off injury or something like that.

your suggestions are going out and splurging all the cap space available on name guys like Guentzel or players "meant" for playoff-bound teams looking to fill that lost hole or two. Those guys aren't coming to the Sharks because they'll be in demand with teams that have aspirations of contention or because they're cashing in at the height of their FA value and are going to be looking for long-term security. Instead you do what Grier did for this last season: a collection of misfit toys where you hope that a couple of them find their way enough to be worth a 2nd to 4th or some playoff team's cast-off prospect they don't have room for or who has disappointed and needs to rebuild their own value.

The Sharks are likely only $12-15m from next season's cap floor. Spend to that point, set up to be an attractive seller at the deadline, be a team that can facilitate for other teams and absorb cap hits or re-route guys in trade for contenders (not as easy since they're without their retention slots for next season).

They'll find ways to spend cap space when they need to. It's not a big deal. Sitting here and fretting about having X amount of space on the books a couple years from now as some sort of impetus to start spending now is pointless. No team has ever had its GM go to the media and say "yeah, I just can't spend money as fast as I need to."

 

[LadyStanley]

I would like the Sharks to sign a Ryan Reaves type player to help deter abuse of the kids.

I would like to ensure that new HC/staff have good special teams and communicate well with players.

 

[Shark Finn]

Reading through this thread, I'm just happy to see that everyone here is happy, even for a moment before the guy busts or whatever. It has been a while.

 

[The Nemesis]

I would like the Sharks to sign a Ryan Reaves type player to help deter abuse of the kids.

I would like to ensure that new HC/staff have good special teams and communicate well with players.

There's no evidence this actually works.

 

[sharski]

Reading through this thread, I'm just happy to see that everyone here is happy, even for a moment before the guy busts or whatever. It has been a while.

This was everyone here after they learned that the Sharks won

 

[Anomie2029]

There's no evidence this actually works.

If anything, I would suggest it increases the likelihood the other team will have a goon in their line up that would do something like it.

Thankfully, Reaves is under contract.

 

[hohosaregood]

Honestly, it'll be so so much fun to have Celebrini and Smith both go back to college. Head to head matches for our 2 best prospects during the NCAA season, the Beanpot, WJC, and the Frozen Four again!! Then finish off the season together in San Jose. I'm hyped.

 

[timorous me]

I'm not touching Connelly with a 10 foot pole.

What about, like, poking and prodding him with that pole in a mildly annoying way?

If anything, I would suggest it increases the likelihood the other team will have a goon in their line up that would do something like it.

Thankfully, Reaves is under contract.

And if you ask me, played a pretty big part in two Toronto losses in the first round. Noah Gregor was a major upgrade on him in their lineup!

 

[Bowie22]

Celebrini
Smith
Bystedt
Edstrom

 

[The Nemesis]

If anything, I would suggest it increases the likelihood the other team will have a goon in their line up that would do something like it.

Thankfully, Reaves is under contract.

Pretty much this. But even regardless of that there's been research done which suggests that if there is any correlation between dressing a goon and what happens to your players, it's that you're more likely to have guys get hurt or be the victim of suspension-worthy hits and whatnot. But for the most part having an enforcer mostly does nothing and almost certainly doesn't actually help you sustain less injuries or be targeted for fewer cheap shots.

What Is It Good For? Absolutely Nothing: The Myth of Enforcer Culture

War, huh. No, not WAR—Wins Above Replacement—but strategic violence to attain an objective. You know, the thing that so many hockey GMs trade assets to get a player to do, and why so many NHL coaches…

www.ontheforecheck.com

The Edmonton Oilers and the new era of the one-dimensional fighter

Yesterday, the Edmonton Oilers claimed Luke Gazdic off waivers from the Dallas Stars. In so doing, they confirmed the new administration’s commitment to what…

edmontonjournal.com

Did Thornton Inadvertently End Savard's Career?

How Shawn Thornton's play may have actually led to Matt Cooke's devastating hit.

www.stanleycupofchowder.com

Tooth for a tooth: Does fighting serve as a deterrent to greater violence in the modern NHL

Fighting has been part of the fabric of the NHL for nearly a century. Recent sharp declines in the frequency of fighting and increased understanding of the long-term consequences of traumatic brain injuries have led many to question whether fighting still has a place in the modern NHL. League...

journals.plos.org

Jay Rosehill or Zack Stortini will not prevent violence against the Flyers’ stars

While we’re watching Jay Rosehill and Zack Stortini battle for the job as enforcer with the Flyers here in training camp, it’s time for a friendly reminder: That’s the old argument: that you have…

www.broadstreethockey.com

Are Enforcers Still Valuable to NHL Teams?

In light of the brawl between the Calgary Flames and the Vancouver Canucks last Saturday, we must again ponder the question of whether or not enforcers are valuable to their teams...

bleacherreport.com

The Enforcer Fallacy: Hockey's Fighting Specialists Don't Protect Anyone

On the opening night of the 2013-14 NHL season, Montreal Canadiens forward George Parros suffered a concussion and had to be removed from the ice on a stretcher following a fight with Colton Orr of the Toronto Maple Leafs.

deadspin.com

Does Fighting Deter Other Nasty Business in Hockey?

Lots of talk about fighting acting as a deterrent in the game of hockey. Is that true? PPP Investigation finds out for you.

web.archive.org

And that's just like 15-20 minutes of research and link-gathering.

 

[The McMafia]

Well the 1C part of the rebuild is done! A huge relief after last year. Not to say that Smith couldn't be one, but now he's either a first line winger or an elite 2C.

An argument can be made that Celebrini + Smith may be a better combo than Bedard + (likely) Demidov, too. Not too bad!

Next list of items:

• Bring in two or three solid players on 3-4 year deals this summer, maybe with some overpay (ex. Duclair, Lindholm, DeBrusk, Roy) that can A) create some structure over the next two years and then B) can bump down the lineup once the kids start arriving.
• Keep some cap space this year to take on expiring contracts for additional futures at the 2025 deadline.
• Set yourself up for another top 5 pick next season, maybe you get lucky and win #1/#2. Hope for Vegas to enter true cap hell and completely faceplant for a second lottery ball. Maybe grab a top D man here or get an asset that you can flip for one later.
• Keep enough cap available to go big game hunting for one UFA in summer 2025... if it looks like at least three of Musty, Smith, Celebrini, Bystedt, and Edstrom are really going to hit.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Well the 1C part of the rebuild is done! A huge relief after last year. Not to say that Smith couldn't be one, but now he's either a first line winger or an elite 2C.

An argument can be made that Celebrini + Smith may be a better combo than Bedard + (likely) Demidov, too. Not too bad!

Next list of items:

• Bring in two or three solid players on 3-4 year deals this summer, maybe with some overpay (ex. Duclair, Lindholm, DeBrusk, Roy) that can A) create some structure over the next two years and then B) can bump down the lineup once the kids start arriving.
• Keep some cap space this year to take on expiring contracts for additional futures at the 2025 deadline.
• Set yourself up for another top 5 pick next season, maybe you get lucky and win #1/#2. Hope for Vegas to enter true cap hell and completely faceplant for a second lottery ball. Maybe grab a top D man here or get an asset that you can flip for one later.
• Keep enough cap available to go big game hunting for one UFA in summer 2025... if it looks like at least three of Musty, Smith, Celebrini, Bystedt, and Edstrom are really going to hit.

Thinking about it, the forwards are fine. Maybe you'd like an extra top-six center:

Eklund-Granlund-Zetterlund
Kostin-Celebrini-Kunin
Gushchin-Sturm-Smith
Bordeleau-Carpenter-Graf

The defense is a real issue. The Sharks need a puck-mover. I would target Reilly from TML. They also need a shutdown guy...Roy, Faulk, etc. should work. Trade Ferraro, buyout Vlasic:

Rielly-Emberson
Thrun-Faulk
Mukhamadullin-Benning
Rutta

Now each rookie is paired with a vet.

 

[mogambomoroo]

As excited as I am that we got our 1C of the future, I agree that the team building still needs to be done with a lot of patience. We'll need solid free agents (defencemen) this summer to help the younger players coming up, but we don't need to get the best pieces just yet.
Get players that are solid and have a good track record, with shorter term but bigger cap.

I think MG is working on it as we speak and will try to find a good combination for our next year team. It's all about just building the chemistry, the winning culture even though we don't win as much as a playoff team. I want to see smiles, comeback victories, exciting OT's and anything that can get young players feeling like ''Next year, we'll be a lot better''

 

[Shark Finn]

I can't stop thinking how absolutely awkward would the lottery watch party have been had the Sharks picked #2.