Prospect Info: 2024 NHL Draft Thread

[Unknown Caller]

I highly doubt Fitz will allow the scouts to push for Eiserman at 10. The org already hates Holtz. They're realllly gonna hate Eiserman. I'm very certain though at at least one of the players I'm quite fond of will be available at 10.

I think Yakemchuk will go higher (because BIG and RD), and I am very happy with that. He's a guy I would stay away from in the top-10. When a defenseman's best attribute is shot, but has issues with IQ/vision and skating...those are big red flags.

Other than that, I think this year's top 10-12 is quite strong, with a sharp fall-off after that. The Devils will still get a very good prospect. For forwards, one of Catton, Helenius, or Lindstrom will be available and I'd be ecstatic with any.

There is an outside shot that a defender like Dickinson or Silayev drops, and that kind of player is a real organizational need as well.

The only difference is that Eiserman is a legitimately good version of Holtz. But I agree that he's not the type of player they'll be targeting. He's just going to be significantly better than Holtz.

 

[bossram]

The only difference is that Eiserman is a legitimately good version of Holtz. But I agree that he's not the type of player they'll be targeting. He's just going to be significantly better than Holtz.

Is he? Pronman has him rated later than 10 (not saying that's the end-all, be-all), and Holtz himself was an 8th overall pick. Reports seem to think Eiserman has a bad attitude and might be lazier defensively. I think he has more dynamic upside than Holtz, but IMO Holtz has adapted to the pro game well in his age 20 and 21 seasons.

 

[Unknown Caller]

Is he? Pronman has him rated later than 10 (not saying that's the end-all, be-all), and Holtz himself was an 8th overall pick. Reports seem to think Eiserman has a bad attitude and might be lazier defensively. I think he has more dynamic upside than Holtz, but IMO Holtz has adapted to the pro game well in his age 20 and 21 seasons.

As scoring prospects, Holtz never had the elite production to match his reputation and Eiserman does. It's really that simple.

Production isn't everything for certain players, but for pure goal scorers like Holtz and Eiserman it's highly predictive of NHL success. Eiserman is on a different level as a prospect than Holtz ever was.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Here's a quick mini-mock. Maybe I'll do something more in-depth if I free up some time in the coming weeks.

The important thing we need to keep in mind is that 2024 might be the toughest year in recent NHL mock drafting history. We know Celebrini is going #1, but after that? Well, there's literally 5-6 players who are in the running at #2, and probably 10 players in the running at #3. You have guys like Eiserman and Catton who could go high as top 4 or fall out of the top 15 altogether. It's literally a mess.

That being said, I think this can create an interesting dialogue on why teams will or won't draft which prospects...

1 SJ C M. Celebrini -- whomever wins the lottery is getting a franchise center.
2 CHI C/RW C. Lindstrom -- I think the Hawks would love a big, skilled power F to line up beside Bedard more than they would love a 4-5 year wait for Demidov
3 ANH RD A. Levshunov -- Levshunov playing in Michigan lowers the wait time, and he's one hell of a prospect at the extremely coveted RD position
4 CLB W I. Demidov --the Jackets have prospect depth everywhere, but if there's one need it's high-end talent on the wing. Demidov's immense scoring upside cannot be understated.
5 MTL LD S. Dickinson -- almost a left-handed version of their #1 pick of Reinbacher last year, a do-everything-well D who lacks elite scoring upside, but a can't-miss NHLer
6 ARI LD A. Silayev -- the Coyotes have focused in recent drafts on big, talented D and Russian prospects, Silayev is a 6'7 giant with upside to match his stature
7 OTT RD C. Yakemchuk -- Ottawa has a big need at RD, opting for Yakemchuk's physical, two-way style over Parekh's all-out offense
8 SEA LD Z. Buium -- though the Kraken have built a solid blueline, no one in the organization offers the offensive upside of Buium, the most electrifying scoring generator from the blueline in the 2024 class
9 CGY W T. Iginla -- it's just too much to pass up on the son of the biggest star in franchise history, and this high-scoring, high-character, high-compete kid is also a tremendous prospect in his own right
10 NJ C/RW K. Helenius -- Helenius is a high-compete, high-IQ two-way player who can fit in NJ's near-future as either a top-6 wing or an elite 3C behind Hischier and Hughes
11 BUF RD Z. Parekh -- loaded all over the organization with high-end talent, Buffalo still has needs at RD and G. Parekh has some questions, but in this scenario there is little doubt he offers more upside than any remaining RD.
12 PHI RW L. Greentree -- not a pick I'd be in love with, but after the "forced" Gauthier trade, it's safe to say the closest thing the Flyers pipeline has to a power forward in future bottom-6er Devin Kaplan.
13 SJ (from PIT) W B. Catton -- Catton's offensive pure abilities might be behind just Celebrini, Lindstrom, Demidov and Buium in this draft, but lack of size and elite skating could drop him.
14 MIN W I. Chernyshov -- the Wild have shown excellent recent acuity identifying high-end talent and they are not afraid to draft out of Russia -- Chernyshov is a top 10 talent who has been underrated by most draft pundits who are asleep at the wheel when it comes to this tenacious and talented young player
15 DET RW M. Brantsegg-Nygard -- another player whom I feel is underrated due to his nationality alone, the young Norwegian is a can't miss, two way power F combining great skating with an elite combo of size/IQ/shooting
16 STL RD A. Jiricek -- I know some people are going to ask why Cole Eiserman is not included in a 16-pick mini-mock, but Jiricek is a better player at a more valuable position. He's going to be a steal in the mid-to-late first round for some lucky team.

 

[Guadana]

As scoring prospects, Holtz never had the elite production to match his reputation and Eiserman does. It's really that simple.

Production isn't everything for certain players, but for pure goal scorers like Holtz and Eiserman it's highly predictive of NHL success. Eiserman is on a different level as a prospect than Holtz ever was.

View attachment 854513

Go check star probabilities of Raymond, Rantanen, Sanderson and Slafkovsky. No matter with or without Holtz in the roster Eiserman is the wrongest pick Devils could make. Not as wrongest as star probability tool of course.

Here's a quick mini-mock. Maybe I'll do something more in-depth if I free up some time in the coming weeks.

The important thing we need to keep in mind is that 2024 might be the toughest year in recent NHL mock drafting history. We know Celebrini is going #1, but after that? Well, there's literally 5-6 players who are in the running at #2, and probably 10 players in the running at #3. You have guys like Eiserman and Catton who could go high as top 4 or fall out of the top 15 altogether. It's literally a mess.

That being said, I think this can create an interesting dialogue on why teams will or won't draft which prospects...

1 SJ C M. Celebrini -- whomever wins the lottery is getting a franchise center.
2 CHI C/RW C. Lindstrom -- I think the Hawks would love a big, skilled power F to line up beside Bedard more than they would love a 4-5 year wait for Demidov
3 ANH RD A. Levshunov -- Levshunov playing in Michigan lowers the wait time, and he's one hell of a prospect at the extremely coveted RD position
4 CLB W I. Demidov --the Jackets have prospect depth everywhere, but if there's one need it's high-end talent on the wing. Demidov's immense scoring upside cannot be understated.
5 MTL LD S. Dickinson -- almost a left-handed version of their #1 pick of Reinbacher last year, a do-everything-well D who lacks elite scoring upside, but a can't-miss NHLer
6 ARI LD A. Silayev -- the Coyotes have focused in recent drafts on big, talented D and Russian prospects, Silayev is a 6'7 giant with upside to match his stature
7 OTT RD C. Yakemchuk -- Ottawa has a big need at RD, opting for Yakemchuk's physical, two-way style over Parekh's all-out offense
8 SEA LD Z. Buium -- though the Kraken have built a solid blueline, no one in the organization offers the offensive upside of Buium, the most electrifying scoring generator from the blueline in the 2024 class
9 CGY W T. Iginla -- it's just too much to pass up on the son of the biggest star in franchise history, and this high-scoring, high-character, high-compete kid is also a tremendous prospect in his own right
10 NJ C/RW K. Helenius -- Helenius is a high-compete, high-IQ two-way player who can fit in NJ's near-future as either a top-6 wing or an elite 3C behind Hischier and Hughes
11 BUF RD Z. Parekh -- loaded all over the organization with high-end talent, Buffalo still has needs at RD and G. Parekh has some questions, but in this scenario there is little doubt he offers more upside than any remaining RD.
12 PHI RW L. Greentree -- not a pick I'd be in love with, but after the "forced" Gauthier trade, it's safe to say the closest thing the Flyers pipeline has to a power forward in future bottom-6er Devin Kaplan.
13 SJ (from PIT) W B. Catton -- Catton's offensive pure abilities might be behind just Celebrini, Lindstrom, Demidov and Buium in this draft, but lack of size and elite skating could drop him.
14 MIN W I. Chernyshov -- the Wild have shown excellent recent acuity identifying high-end talent and they are not afraid to draft out of Russia -- Chernyshov is a top 10 talent who has been underrated by most draft pundits who are asleep at the wheel when it comes to this tenacious and talented young player
15 DET RW M. Brantsegg-Nygard -- another player whom I feel is underrated due to his nationality alone, the young Norwegian is a can't miss, two way power F combining great skating with an elite combo of size/IQ/shooting
16 STL RD A. Jiricek -- I know some people are going to ask why Cole Eiserman is not included in a 16-pick mini-mock, but Jiricek is a better player at a more valuable position. He's going to be a steal in the mid-to-late first round for some lucky team.

Mtl are set on the left side mostly. They have some lack of offensive talents from their point of view and from objective reasons. They should like Reindacher, Hutson, Mallioux, Xhekaj and Guhle.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Go check star probabilities of Raymond, Rantanen, Sanderson and Slafkovsky. No matter with or without Holtz in the roster Eiserman is the wrongest pick Devils could make. Not as wrongest as star probability tool of course.



Mtl are set on the left side mostly. They have some lack of offensive talents from their point of view and from objective reasons. They should like Reindacher, Hutson, Mallioux, Xhekaj and Guhle.

That's a good point.

My follow-up question would be: what forward would the Canadiens take at #5 overall with Celebrini, Lindstrom and Demidov all off the board?

It seems a bit early for taking a chance on Catton with a can't miss guy like Dickinson still on the board. Eiserman has the pure talent to justify a pick there, but I think a team would be insane to take Eiserman so high with all the problems in his overall game. Maybe they consider Helenius? I'm really high on Helenius personally -- his mix of elite compete/IQ combined with check-plusses across the board in pretty much every imaginable category make him one hell of a great prospect in my book.

I would rank Dickinson about even with Guhle and ahead of Hutson and Xhekaj. I agree the Canadiens are thinner on the right side of the blueline, with one top-four candidate in Reinbacher and a couple bottom-pairing types in Barron and Mailloux. Do you think they might take a stab at Parekh or Yakemchuk at #5?

It's an interesting question, I'll think more about it.

 

[Brodeur]

12 PHI RW L. Greentree -- not a pick I'd be in love with, but after the "forced" Gauthier trade, it's safe to say the closest thing the Flyers pipeline has to a power forward in future bottom-6er Devin Kaplan.
13 SJ (from PIT) W B. Catton -- Catton's offensive pure abilities might be behind just Celebrini, Lindstrom, Demidov and Buium in this draft, but lack of size and elite skating could drop him.

In this scenario, I had the Flyers going for Catton even if he doesn't profile the same as Gauthier. I figured Danny Briere would be okay with an undersized forward with offensive upside.

With San Jose in particular, I wonder if they'd value Eiserman more than others due to the Boston connections with Mike Grier and their director of scouting Tim Burke. Celebrini probably turns pro, but there's the possibility he goes back for one more year at BU and could play with Eiserman.

 

[JrFischer54]

No reason to believe that Nico would look to bolt as a UFA, especially being the captain of this team.

Just saying his next contract will be a lot more then what it is now.

 

[StevenToddIves]

In this scenario, I had the Flyers going for Catton even if he doesn't profile the same as Gauthier. I figured Danny Briere would be okay with an undersized forward with offensive upside.

With San Jose in particular, I wonder if they'd value Eiserman more than others due to the Boston connections with Mike Grier and their director of scouting Tim Burke. Celebrini probably turns pro, but there's the possibility he goes back for one more year at BU and could play with Eiserman.

Great points on both the Flyers pick and the second SJ first-rounder.

In the theoretical scenario where the Sharks land a surefire franchise C in Celebrini, they could certainly afford to roll the dice on Eriserman's 50+ goal potential, even with all the questions and red flags.

As for the Flyers, it's tough to tell. If they are committed to Tortorella -- probably the case even after a historic end-of-year collapse which was largely his fault -- they have to be careful about taking the type of players who Tortorella traditionally clashes with. Farabee and Couturier both despise the man and are stuck there with long-term deals. It's a powder keg which likely cost them Gauthier, as well. It's similarly tough to see Berkly Catton changing his style to block more shots.

I actually don't have Liam Greentree as even in consideration for my top 20, his skating is too concerning, but he is an effective power forward down low and the type of player who wouldn't have to reinvent himself completely to succeed in low-event, Tortorella hockey.

 

[Guadana]

That's a good point.

My follow-up question would be: what forward would the Canadiens take at #5 overall with Celebrini, Lindstrom and Demidov all off the board?

It seems a bit early for taking a chance on Catton with a can't miss guy like Dickinson still on the board. Eiserman has the pure talent to justify a pick there, but I think a team would be insane to take Eiserman so high with all the problems in his overall game. Maybe they consider Helenius? I'm really high on Helenius personally -- his mix of elite compete/IQ combined with check-plusses across the board in pretty much every imaginable category make him one hell of a great prospect in my book.

I would rank Dickinson about even with Guhle and ahead of Hutson and Xhekaj. I agree the Canadiens are thinner on the right side of the blueline, with one top-four candidate in Reinbacher and a couple bottom-pairing types in Barron and Mailloux. Do you think they might take a stab at Parekh or Yakemchuk at #5?

It's an interesting question, I'll think more about it.

I really not sure, but as I said before they can be the first team who can draft Iginla. Catton is still an option. About Helenius we dont know how bad their ptsd after Kotkaniemi draft is.

May be they are not so sure in Reinbacher so some RD could be protection pick. Of course Dickinson is attractive. I'm just talking about more likely and less likely outcomes.

Great points on both the Flyers pick and the second SJ first-rounder.

In the theoretical scenario where the Sharks land a surefire franchise C in Celebrini, they could certainly afford to roll the dice on Eriserman's 50+ goal potential, even with all the questions and red flags.

As for the Flyers, it's tough to tell. If they are committed to Tortorella -- probably the case even after a historic end-of-year collapse which was largely his fault -- they have to be careful about taking the type of players who Tortorella traditionally clashes with. Farabee and Couturier both despise the man and are stuck there with long-term deals. It's a powder keg which likely cost them Gauthier, as well. It's similarly tough to see Berkly Catton changing his style to block more shots.

I actually don't have Liam Greentree as even in consideration for my top 20, his skating is too concerning, but he is an effective power forward down low and the type of player who wouldn't have to reinvent himself completely to succeed in low-event, Tortorella hockey.

I would love to see Catton blocking more shots. 1 is more than less than 1. Overall Torts is more about active forechecking. Blocking is more about passive defense like Islanders played.

I think Brier should go BPA. Of course every gm has own view of who is BPA.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I really not sure, but as I said before they can be the first team who can draft Iginla. Catton is still an option. About Helenius we dont know how bad their ptsd after Kotkaniemi draft is.

May be they are not so sure in Reinbacher so some RD could be protection pick. Of course Dickinson is attractive. I'm just talking about more likely and less likely outcomes.


I would love to see Catton blocking more shots. 1 is more than less than 1. Overall Torts is more about active forechecking. Blocking is more about passive defense like Islanders played.

I think Brier should go BPA. Of course every gm has own view of who is BPA.

Although I laughed out loud reading your "PTSD" comment, I'm going to go on record saying Helenius is a better prospect than Kotkaniemi at the same age.

You know as well as anyone how highly I factor in hockey IQ and compete level into my player evaluations. Helenius is elite to me in both categories, while Kotkaniemi was far, far from it. Right now, I'd say Helenius' upside is in the Nick Suzuki ballpark while Kotkaniemi's upside is probably leveling off as "poor man's Haula".

Though I haven't had the fortune or time to watch as much hockey this year as in past draft years, I've been extremely impressed by Helenius in all 10-12 games I've seen of him. The kid is really one heck of a hockey player. He might not be my top overall choice, but I'd be absolutely thrilled to get Helenius in NJ.

 

[My3Sons]

Although I laughed out loud reading your "PTSD" comment, I'm going to go on record saying Helenius is a better prospect than Kotkaniemi at the same age.

You know as well as anyone how highly I factor in hockey IQ and compete level into my player evaluations. Helenius is elite to me in both categories, while Kotkaniemi was far, far from it. Right now, I'd say Helenius' upside is in the Nick Suzuki ballpark while Kotkaniemi's upside is probably leveling off as "poor man's Haula".

Though I haven't had the fortune or time to watch as much hockey this year as in past draft years, I've been extremely impressed by Helenius in all 10-12 games I've seen of him. The kid is really one heck of a hockey player. He might not be my top overall choice, but I'd be absolutely thrilled to get Helenius in NJ.

It’s so much fun to read your prospect thoughts. I’ve missed them and thought they were done forever.

 

[longislanddevil]

I would be thrilled if Dickinson fell to 10. It sounds like he’s the kind of player who would complement Nemec really well. That would be a filthy pairing!! Hopefully Arizona, Ottawa, Calgary or Seattle go with the RD. There would be a very real chance Buium might be there in that scenario (and Dickinson to a lesser degree). My train of thought mirrors some of you guys.

From Fitz’ presser today though, I get the impression this pick will be dealt and I hope I’m wrong. I should divorce myself from getting too attached to these prospects.

 

[Unknown Caller]

Go check star probabilities of Raymond, Rantanen, Sanderson and Slafkovsky. No matter with or without Holtz in the roster Eiserman is the wrongest pick Devils could make. Not as wrongest as star probability tool of course.

As I said, comps and star probabilities are much more predictive for pure goal scorers like Holtz and Eiserman whose value and abilities are largely based on offensive production.

Sanderson was drafted as a two-way defenseman. Production comps aren't that valuable there. I would give zero weight to production based models for non-offensive defensemen.

There are also always outliers with star probablities. That's why it's a sliding scale. It doesn't say 100% star or 0% star. Rantanen and Raymond are pure outliers who hit on their 15% chance to be a star. For every Rantanen and Raymond, I could point to 50 other guys with a similar production profile who were drafted high and busted.

 

[Unknown Caller]

Here's a quick mini-mock. Maybe I'll do something more in-depth if I free up some time in the coming weeks.

The important thing we need to keep in mind is that 2024 might be the toughest year in recent NHL mock drafting history. We know Celebrini is going #1, but after that? Well, there's literally 5-6 players who are in the running at #2, and probably 10 players in the running at #3. You have guys like Eiserman and Catton who could go high as top 4 or fall out of the top 15 altogether. It's literally a mess.

That being said, I think this can create an interesting dialogue on why teams will or won't draft which prospects...

1 SJ C M. Celebrini -- whomever wins the lottery is getting a franchise center.
2 CHI C/RW C. Lindstrom -- I think the Hawks would love a big, skilled power F to line up beside Bedard more than they would love a 4-5 year wait for Demidov
3 ANH RD A. Levshunov -- Levshunov playing in Michigan lowers the wait time, and he's one hell of a prospect at the extremely coveted RD position
4 CLB W I. Demidov --the Jackets have prospect depth everywhere, but if there's one need it's high-end talent on the wing. Demidov's immense scoring upside cannot be understated.
5 MTL LD S. Dickinson -- almost a left-handed version of their #1 pick of Reinbacher last year, a do-everything-well D who lacks elite scoring upside, but a can't-miss NHLer
6 ARI LD A. Silayev -- the Coyotes have focused in recent drafts on big, talented D and Russian prospects, Silayev is a 6'7 giant with upside to match his stature
7 OTT RD C. Yakemchuk -- Ottawa has a big need at RD, opting for Yakemchuk's physical, two-way style over Parekh's all-out offense
8 SEA LD Z. Buium -- though the Kraken have built a solid blueline, no one in the organization offers the offensive upside of Buium, the most electrifying scoring generator from the blueline in the 2024 class
9 CGY W T. Iginla -- it's just too much to pass up on the son of the biggest star in franchise history, and this high-scoring, high-character, high-compete kid is also a tremendous prospect in his own right
10 NJ C/RW K. Helenius -- Helenius is a high-compete, high-IQ two-way player who can fit in NJ's near-future as either a top-6 wing or an elite 3C behind Hischier and Hughes
11 BUF RD Z. Parekh -- loaded all over the organization with high-end talent, Buffalo still has needs at RD and G. Parekh has some questions, but in this scenario there is little doubt he offers more upside than any remaining RD.
12 PHI RW L. Greentree -- not a pick I'd be in love with, but after the "forced" Gauthier trade, it's safe to say the closest thing the Flyers pipeline has to a power forward in future bottom-6er Devin Kaplan.
13 SJ (from PIT) W B. Catton -- Catton's offensive pure abilities might be behind just Celebrini, Lindstrom, Demidov and Buium in this draft, but lack of size and elite skating could drop him.
14 MIN W I. Chernyshov -- the Wild have shown excellent recent acuity identifying high-end talent and they are not afraid to draft out of Russia -- Chernyshov is a top 10 talent who has been underrated by most draft pundits who are asleep at the wheel when it comes to this tenacious and talented young player
15 DET RW M. Brantsegg-Nygard -- another player whom I feel is underrated due to his nationality alone, the young Norwegian is a can't miss, two way power F combining great skating with an elite combo of size/IQ/shooting
16 STL RD A. Jiricek -- I know some people are going to ask why Cole Eiserman is not included in a 16-pick mini-mock, but Jiricek is a better player at a more valuable position. He's going to be a steal in the mid-to-late first round for some lucky team.

Helenius is the pick that I've said is the best fit for the Devils if they stay at 10.

I wouldn't be too concerned with Kotkaniemi comps because (a) Helenius is already a better player and profiles better than Kotkaniemi in his draft year and (b) Kotkaniemi would have been a hell of a pick at 10th overall. It was taking him 3rd overall that really made him a poor selection.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

I’m expecting Celebrini after the draft lottery. Given this, won’t be discussing anyone else. Nico will finally be playing in the right spot as our 3C next season.

 

[HughesCorporation]

I like charlie Elicks game. seems like a big tough kid, with enough skills to pair with a puck mover

​

 

[Guadana]

As I said, comps and star probabilities are much more predictive for pure goal scorers like Holtz and Eiserman whose value and abilities are largely based on offensive production.

Sanderson was drafted as a two-way defenseman. Production comps aren't that valuable there. I would give zero weight to production based models for non-offensive defensemen.

There are also always outliers with star probablities. That's why it's a sliding scale. It doesn't say 100% star or 0% star. Rantanen and Raymond are pure outliers who hit on their 15% chance to be a star. For every Rantanen and Raymond, I could point to 50 other guys with a similar production profile who were drafted high and busted.

Man, its just not. It close to be offensive to use star prob on this boards because me and Steve made so much work and spent so much effort year after year into the real scouting and explanations. Evnted breaks a lot of huge info, a lot of huge details. And everything you do now is publishing freaking p/gpg comparisons on the graphs. Skills, iq, compete level, versatility of tools, team roles, leagues. Who cares, we have graphs of scoring.
Sorry, man, but Its really sad for me.

 

[StevenToddIves]

It’s so much fun to read your prospect thoughts. I’ve missed them and thought they were done forever.

Haha, you still have terrific viewpoints like @evnted and my man @Guadana who post on the regular.

I might have some time to whip up some profiles in the next two months, we shall see. I've been watching more prospects lately just in case.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I would be thrilled if Dickinson fell to 10. It sounds like he’s the kind of player who would complement Nemec really well. That would be a filthy pairing!! Hopefully Arizona, Ottawa, Calgary or Seattle go with the RD. There would be a very real chance Buium might be there in that scenario (and Dickinson to a lesser degree). My train of thought mirrors some of you guys.

From Fitz’ presser today though, I get the impression this pick will be dealt and I hope I’m wrong. I should divorce myself from getting too attached to these prospects.

It's unlikely Dickinson falls to 10, but not impossible.

I do not think Fitzgerald deals the pick. I no longer see Nashville trading Saros and Gibson or Markstrom's cost would be far lower than a #10 overall pick.

 

[HischierSeDgewOrk]

I don't follow prospects enough at the moment, all i care is draft the BPA. Drafting for need always backfires. Never know what happens to a team in 2 or 3 or 4 years when these players are ready.

and if a walstedt or askarov is available and is bpa..take the damn goalie.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Helenius is the pick that I've said is the best fit for the Devils if they stay at 10.

I wouldn't be too concerned with Kotkaniemi comps because (a) Helenius is already a better player and profiles better than Kotkaniemi in his draft year and (b) Kotkaniemi would have been a hell of a pick at 10th overall. It was taking him 3rd overall that really made him a poor selection.

Have to disagree, friend.

These algorithmic profiles are pretty close to nonsense once we remove the obvious "my model says Conor Bedard will be a star" stuff. They miss on their outlying predictions two dozen times for every time they actually hit on one.

Secondly, Kotkaniemi would not be a good pick at #10. He's a 4th liner who you can slot up to the 3rd in a pinch. Not really what I'm looking for with a top 10 pick when the ensuing 12 picks included studs like Bouchard, Dobson, Farabee and K'Andre Miller.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Man, its just not. It close to be offensive to use star prob on this boards because me and Steve made so much work and spent so much effort year after year into the real scouting and explanations. Evnted breaks a lot of huge info, a lot of huge details. And everything you do now is publishing freaking p/gpg comparisons on the graphs. Skills, iq, compete level, versatility of tools, team roles, leagues. Who cares, we have graphs of scoring.
Sorry, man, but Its really sad for me.

My top three criteria for a -- sorry to brag -- pretty successful two decades of draft analysis are skating, hockey IQ, and compete level. None of these factor at all into a stat based model.

Then again, the stat based model rewards "me-first cherry picking" and "never paying attention to defensive responsibility" -- neither of which factor into my prospect evaluations.

So, I guess it's just an argument of apples to oranges.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I don't follow prospects enough at the moment, all i care is draft the BPA. Drafting for need always backfires. Never know what happens to a team in 2 or 3 or 4 years when these players are ready.

and if a walstedt or askarov is available and is bpa..take the damn goalie.

No goalies crack the top 20 this year, so that's not an option.

After Celebrini at #1, there's likely a small tier drop off after Demidov and Lindstrom and maybe Levshunov. But then it opens up into a bit of a crap-shoot between #5-#15, so it's difficult in 2024 to pinpoint a definitive BPA.

This is an outlying situation where drafting the type of player who fits your organizational goals actually makes sense to some degree.

 

[My3Sons]

No goalies crack the top 20 this year, so that's not an option.

After Celebrini at #1, there's likely a small tier drop off after Demidov and Lindstrom and maybe Levshunov. But then it opens up into a bit of a crap-shoot between #5-#15, so it's difficult in 2024 to pinpoint a definitive BPA.

This is an outlying situation where drafting the type of player who fits your organizational goals actually makes sense to some degree.

With some additional viewings I bet you discern some details that allow you to stratify that 5-15 tier with better precision.