I could not disagree more about defense, especially while you downplay our wingers. We might get one bottom pairing LD out of Loof, Buchinger, and Burns. I honestly liked Loof, but his progression isn't where I wanted it to be by now. But how do you talk up them and Kessel, and not our wingers? How is the D need very specific and there's so much to be done about our wingers? This seems like a bad faith argument. We have Thomas, Dvorsky, Kyrou, Neighbours, Snuggy, Stenberg, Bolduc, Pekarcik, and Buchnevich still in play. You're ready to take Basha as a left handed shot wing with these guys but not Emery? He's a bottom pairing guy apparently? Are you just enamored with points?
When I look at our D for 3, 4 years from now where are we at? We have a below average prospect pool. Lindstein is easily projectable as a top 4. Then it gets very murky very quickly. I mean, the one guy we've taken the last 8 years at D in the first two rounds who has had time to develop in Peru is a fringe NHL player. Does Buchinger break through? Does Loof take a large step? Do we bank on Burns? Is Kessel that easy to project being a stable NHL D 4, 5 etc years into the future? Because I think Toro is. I think Stenberg is. I think Snuggy is. I think Bolduc is. Where is Parayko 3, 4 years from now? Where is Faulk 3, 4 years from now? We see middling FAs get overpaid every year, who is gonna be our next Krug contract because we painted ourselves into a corner? In Wheeler's prospect rankings for us, there were 3 D in our top 10. Lindstein, obviously. He had Fischer at 8, calling him maybe a 6/7 defenseman if he develops right, and on Buchinger at 9: "I’m not settled on an NHL projection, but he’s the kind of player who feels like he’ll be solid AHL depth at minimum." I'm not sold on them either. Our defensive needs are NOT specific., we have maybe one RD on the roster who will be here 3,4 years from now in the top 4 and one prospect who we can almost comfortably project as a top 4 LD.
D do take longer to develop, but I didn't say they slide. The guys that have more routinely slid are offensive defensemen. Lane Hutson fell, probably wrongly. Dragicevic fell. Brzustewicz fell, he had a good development year but I still question his ceiling. Whereas someone like Bonk actually went earlier. That's what I'm afraid of. Elick, Emery, Badinka are all good RD prospects with skill sets we need. That's what I think is missing here. I'm not saying overlook great forward prospects at 16 to move down to like 24 and take any defenseman. I think the VALUE on them is similar, probably towards guys like Elick and Emery at a certain point. I would take Elick or Emery outright at 16 over Greentree, no questions asked, and I would expect them to be more valuable NHL players down the line outright. I'm not weighting the positional value. Like I've said, a 20+ minute, solid, cost-controlled defenseman is always going to be worth more than most wingers. Especially when a lot of our team and prospects at forward aren't great skaters, we're going to need good skating defensemen.
And we continue to kick the can down the road. Last year, how many people were saying wait on D for this year? Hey, it's supposed to be a loaded class in 2024, we'll be good. This year, it's next year. I think our fanbase is more rigid on NOT taking defense than I am on wanting to take a defenseman or two. Hell, I think most of the normal draft discussers know that I was all-in on Oliver Moore last year. I thought 2C was a huge need and I thought (and still think) he can stick at C and he's a dynamic skater, good shot, great forecheck, plays PK. Now we've got that position filled with Dvorsky, center is a lesser need.
And it's always we'll make a deal. Buffalo traded a 2C for a LD with potential. How many can we put down for trading Dvorsky for a defenseman of Byram's caliber? Probably not many. I've explained the issue with relying on other teams for defense too many times now. I'll just say A) It's a tired damn line and B) It hasn't worked so far. We don't want to paint ourselves into a corner of HAVING to take a defenseman in round 1, but we do want to paint ourselves into a corner about HAVING to rely on another team to give us a premium defenseman.
There being a run on the guys I mentioned doesn't mean that guys in the late teens early 20s are dropping to 48. That math doesn't really check out. Most mocks have them going top 40 already. Pulk not as much, but I think he could rise. And again, the offensive defenseman could slide. Maybe Hutson, maybe Mews.
