Pre-Game Talk: 2024 Draft Thread

[STL fan in MN]

Just curious, how do you rank the top handful of defensemen, and which are worthy of a top 5 pick?

The only one I currently have in the top-5 is Buium at 5.

I’m just not as high on this D class as most. I like a lot of them but pretty much each one has what could be a pretty fatal flaw.

5 - Buium. Has the high hockey sense I like. Anticipates play very well. His game has grown a ton in the last year. I think he’s good defensively but not excellent. Going to be a good two-way guy but question if he can be a #1. Ok size at 6’0”.

6 - Silayev. He’s huge (6’7”) and skates pretty well. That’s pretty much it. Could be the next Chara type. Or next Tyler Myers. Hard to get a read as he’s been playing in the KHL. Is his game super basic because that’s really all he’s capable of or is it because he’s playing in a top pro league and he’s keeping it simple? He hasn’t shown that creativity at lower levels in previous years so I lean towards the former.

10 - Levshunov. Brings pretty much all of the physical elements you want but I question his hockey sense a bit. Are his dumb plays because he’s trying too much in college hockey and hasn’t adapted yet (he was the 3rd youngest player in college hockey this season) or is it because he’s just not processing the game super fast? He’s good but very inconsistent.

11 - Yakemchuk. He’s all over the place for me. Sometimes his D looks like a mess, other times he’s very smooth. Sometimes he appears to have high hockey sense and other times he seems to completely misread a play, ignore his mark etc. He’s a guy that has a lot of potential if he can smooth out his game. I plan on trying to find more of his games as right now, I don’t have a solid opinion of his game. Boom/bust type IMO.

12 - Dickinson. I’ve already discussed what I see in him.

13 Parekh. I really want to like Parekh but he’s so frustrating. He’s a joy to watch in the Jr game as his skills and offensive hockey sense are extremely evident but he has so many defensive holes in his game, I have a hard time projecting his game as a pro. He has a lot to smooth out. He’s made strides this season though. He’s smart and I tend to bank on smart players learning the adjustments they need to make. But he’s also 6’0” so a bit undersized. In the end, I think he’s going to become a good NHLer as his offensive skills are they good but he’ll have to be sheltered and not counted on to be your team’s stud all-situations d-man.

After that it’s guys like Jiricek, Badinka, Kiviharju, Vaisanen, Pulkkinen, LSW, Hutson, Freij, Elick, Emery, Mews, Galvas, Solberg, Ustinkov…I see a lot of quality d-men ranked in the late 1st all the way through the 2nd and into the 3rd.

My focus almost all season has been on d-men as that’s what the Blues really need and this draft was billed as being D heavy…BUT, as I’ve dug in more and more, I seem to keep lowering the d-men and raising the forwards. The Blues main need may be D but IMO, the way this draft is shaping up, the most likely best player available is much more likely to be a forward at pick 16 than a d-man.

 

[STL fan in MN]

I see him as the safest bet to be a top four. that’s going to be his floor

I would actually agree with this. Probably the safest bet to be a top-4 guy but I’ll be quite surprised if he ends up being the best d-man in this class.

So many of the others have a part of their game that could completely derail them but I bet a few will hit and become studs. Which ones though…that’s what’s so maddening about this draft class.

 

[bleedblue1223]

The only one I currently have in the top-5 is Buium at 5.

I’m just not as high on this D class as most. I like a lot of them but pretty much each one has what could be a pretty fatal flaw.

5 - Buium. Has the high hockey sense I like. Anticipates play very well. His game has grown a ton in the last year. I think he’s good defensively but not excellent. Going to be a good two-way guy but question if he can be a #1. Ok size at 6’0”.

6 - Silayev. He’s huge (6’7”) and skates pretty well. That’s pretty much it. Could be the next Chara type. Or next Tyler Myers. Hard to get a read as he’s been playing in the KHL. Is his game super basic because that’s really all he’s capable of or is it because he’s playing in a top pro league and he’s keeping it simple? He hasn’t shown that creativity at lower levels in previous years so I lean towards the former.

10 - Levshunov. Brings pretty much all of the physical elements you want but I question his hockey sense a bit. Are his dumb plays because he’s trying too much in college hockey and hasn’t adapted yet (he was the 3rd youngest player in college hockey this season) or is it because he’s just not processing the game super fast? He’s good but very inconsistent.

11 - Yakemchuk. He’s all over the place for me. Sometimes his D looks like a mess, other times he’s very smooth. Sometimes he appears to have high hockey sense and other times he seems to completely misread a play, ignore his mark etc. He’s a guy that has a lot of potential if he can smooth out his game. I plan on trying to find more of his games as right now, I don’t have a solid opinion of his game. Boom/bust type IMO.

12 - Dickinson. I’ve already discussed what I see in him.

13 Parekh. I really want to like Parekh but he’s so frustrating. He’s a joy to watch in the Jr game as his skills and offensive hockey sense are extremely evident but he has so many defensive holes in his game, I have a hard time projecting his game as a pro. He has a lot to smooth out. He’s made strides this season though. He’s smart and I tend to bank on smart players learning the adjustments they need to make. But he’s also 6’0” so a bit undersized. In the end, I think he’s going to become a good NHLer as his offensive skills are they good but he’ll have to be sheltered and not counted on to be your team’s stud all-situations d-man.

After that it’s guys like Jiricek, Badinka, Kiviharju, Vaisanen, Pulkkinen, LSW, Hutson, Freij, Elick, Emery, Mews, Galvas, Solberg, Ustinkov…I see a lot of quality d-men ranked in the late 1st all the way through the 2nd and into the 3rd.

My focus almost all season has been on d-men as that’s what the Blues really need and this draft was billed as being D heavy…BUT, as I’ve dug in more and more, I seem to keep lowering the d-men and raising the forwards. The Blues main need may be D but IMO, the way this draft is shaping up, the most likely best player available is much more likely to be a forward at pick 16 than a d-man.

Glad my view of Buium tracks with you, was worried I was too high on him. He's someone I would love to end up with and I have no idea where he'll be drafted. Could see him around top 5, but also around top 10.

 

[PerryTurnbullfan]

Glad my view of Buium tracks with you, was worried I was too high on him. He's someone I would love to end up with and I have no idea where he'll be drafted. Could see him around top 5, but also around top 10.

Because he is the most complete defenseman, I think he will go inside the top 10 definitely. He checks all the boxes, but I think his floor is a bottom six. If he doesn’t want to improve his strength and adapt his game, then he could falter.

 

[STL fan in MN]

Glad my view of Buium tracks with you, was worried I was too high on him. He's someone I would love to end up with and I have no idea where he'll be drafted. Could see him around top 5, but also around top 10.

Same. I could see a team really value him but I could also see him drop a little. He’s 6’0” and a lefty. Teams really like d-men to be 6’2” or bigger and there’s always a premium for righties.

He’s not dropping to 16 though unfortunately.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Same. I could see a team really value him but I could also see him drop a little. He’s 6’0” and a lefty. Teams really like d-men to be 6’2” or bigger and there’s always a premium for righties.

He’s not dropping to 16 though unfortunately.

Basically hope he has a Cam Fowler type fall, and we can trade up.

Not comparing the players, just a defenseman off the top of my head that had a fall from projections, but still an area that we'd have to trade up for.

 

[Blueston]

The only one I currently have in the top-5 is Buium at 5.

I’m just not as high on this D class as most. I like a lot of them but pretty much each one has what could be a pretty fatal flaw.

5 - Buium. Has the high hockey sense I like. Anticipates play very well. His game has grown a ton in the last year. I think he’s good defensively but not excellent. Going to be a good two-way guy but question if he can be a #1. Ok size at 6’0”.

6 - Silayev. He’s huge (6’7”) and skates pretty well. That’s pretty much it. Could be the next Chara type. Or next Tyler Myers. Hard to get a read as he’s been playing in the KHL. Is his game super basic because that’s really all he’s capable of or is it because he’s playing in a top pro league and he’s keeping it simple? He hasn’t shown that creativity at lower levels in previous years so I lean towards the former.

10 - Levshunov. Brings pretty much all of the physical elements you want but I question his hockey sense a bit. Are his dumb plays because he’s trying too much in college hockey and hasn’t adapted yet (he was the 3rd youngest player in college hockey this season) or is it because he’s just not processing the game super fast? He’s good but very inconsistent.

11 - Yakemchuk. He’s all over the place for me. Sometimes his D looks like a mess, other times he’s very smooth. Sometimes he appears to have high hockey sense and other times he seems to completely misread a play, ignore his mark etc. He’s a guy that has a lot of potential if he can smooth out his game. I plan on trying to find more of his games as right now, I don’t have a solid opinion of his game. Boom/bust type IMO.

12 - Dickinson. I’ve already discussed what I see in him.

13 Parekh. I really want to like Parekh but he’s so frustrating. He’s a joy to watch in the Jr game as his skills and offensive hockey sense are extremely evident but he has so many defensive holes in his game, I have a hard time projecting his game as a pro. He has a lot to smooth out. He’s made strides this season though. He’s smart and I tend to bank on smart players learning the adjustments they need to make. But he’s also 6’0” so a bit undersized. In the end, I think he’s going to become a good NHLer as his offensive skills are they good but he’ll have to be sheltered and not counted on to be your team’s stud all-situations d-man.

After that it’s guys like Jiricek, Badinka, Kiviharju, Vaisanen, Pulkkinen, LSW, Hutson, Freij, Elick, Emery, Mews, Galvas, Solberg, Ustinkov…I see a lot of quality d-men ranked in the late 1st all the way through the 2nd and into the 3rd.

My focus almost all season has been on d-men as that’s what the Blues really need and this draft was billed as being D heavy…BUT, as I’ve dug in more and more, I seem to keep lowering the d-men and raising the forwards. The Blues main need may be D but IMO, the way this draft is shaping up, the most likely best player available is much more likely to be a forward at pick 16 than a d-man.

i am higher on dickinson and levshunov than you, but i 100% agree with this overall assessment. the d group as a whole is not near as good as the hype, which is why i kept slagging the draft class. as you said, there are lots of nice late, late 1st or 2nd round options but not hardly any worth mid-1st round pick. as i have gone deeper, however, i too actually like the forwards in this class much better than i had expected. there actually look like several forwards who are likely to be available at our pick that i would be excited to draft (and pick up couple d in round 2).

 

[STL fan in MN]

Basically hope he has a Cam Fowler type fall, and we can trade up.

Not comparing the players, just a defenseman off the top of my head that had a fall from projections, but still an area that we'd have to trade up for.

One can hope. As yeah, it does happen sometimes. The draft is unpredictable.

And I remember that. Fowler was crying and Craig Button went over and consoled him. I don’t agree with Button’s analysis on players sometimes but I’ll always respect the guy for that.

 

[Celtic Note]

What if Dickinson is the next Bogosian or Gudbranson though? Solid d-men but not the studs they were hoped to be. Is the risk worth it? He’s far from any sort of guarantee IMO.

Personally, I don’t see it with Dickinson. From an athletic standpoint, he’s an absolute thoroughbred. He has the size, skating, athleticism and skills. What I see as lacking is the hockey sense. He’s very basic. If this was football with very set plays and he played any position other than QB, he’d have all-star written all over him. But there’s so much improv in hockey and Dickinson lacks that creativity IMO. I think he’s going to be a solid 2nd pairing type due to his strengths but he won’t be a #1 because he lacks hockey sense.

So Dickinson is EJ 2.0?

I am really interested in how these D in the top 5 project. I don’t want to trade Kyrou for any available guy. It really needs to be a guy we are confident can become the guy we need. If it’s a he is decent and will be a top 4, but not sure about a true #1, then I pass.

 

[bleedblue1223]

One can hope. As yeah, it does happen sometimes. The draft is unpredictable.

And I remember that. Fowler was crying and Craig Button went over and consoled him. I don’t agree with Button’s analysis on players sometimes but I’ll always respect the guy for that.

That top group of defense just feels so different individually, that it's hard to project the order. Do some teams fall in love with the offense of Parekh, the potential of Silayev, or stick to consensus with Levshunov and Dickinson.

 

[Celtic Note]

i'd trade kyrou for more than half the guys on your top 5 list (knowing how their careers have turned out or how they are today if still young) if i could have them at some point prior to their 20th birthday. it would be about 30% for top 10 list and maybe 15% on the 3rd list. which is why if we have a chance to get top 5 pick for kyrou i think it makes sense, bc the chances of getting guy that good with later pick is so much lower. and i say that as someone who likes kyrou and feel like he can be the 3rd best forward on legit contender, but we can't be a legit contender if aging/declining leddy and faulk are both in our top 3 d. (and our 4d is much, much worse).

The top 5 list interests me, but to an extent the top 6-10 is a significantly larger gamble.

 

[STL fan in MN]

i am higher on dickinson and levshunov than you, but i 100% agree with this overall assessment. the d group as a whole is not near as good as the hype, which is why i kept slagging the draft class. as you said, there are lots of nice late, late 1st or 2nd round options but not hardly any worth mid-1st round pick. as i have gone deeper, however, i too actually like the forwards in this class much better than i had expected. there actually look like several forwards who are likely to be available at our pick that i would be excited to draft (and pick up couple d in round 2).

I’m thinking the exact same thing. I mean, if the BPA is a d-man then great! But I wouldn’t force it.

Have you been watching Sennecke in the OHL playoffs at all? He’s been a monster! He wasn’t really on my radar for that range all season but now I think there’s a good chance he’s gone before 16.

 

[sfvega]

I never advocated for trading Kyrou for a forward prospect. My argument is against trading him for an unknown D prospect. A guy with a couple more years of experience and thus a clearer projection like Simon Nemec or David Jiricek? Yeah, I’d consider that more. But I’d have to REALLY like a 17-18 year old d-man to trade an established player for him.

That said, I do think 17/18 year old forward are easier to project than 17/18 year old d-men. They’re usually closer to being their finished products at that age. The drafting of forwards in the top-15 or so seems to be a lot more accurate to me than for d-men.

Fair point on advocating, my bad.

I think everyone would trade Kyrou for Nemec or Jiricek, but we shouldn't hold our breath for that to be on the table. The biggest issue for me is that we keep kicking the can down the road on building a defense. We have one prospect that we can count on probably being a top 4 D in Lindstein and a lot of fringe guys like Burns, Buch, etc. We have one roster D who we can probably project to be a top 4 D a few years from now in Parayko. We can keep waiting for our socks to be knocked off in an offer, or we can make a move. I'm not advocating for any aggressive move, but it does boil down to I have Dickinson ranked highly and you don't. Which is what makes for good discussion.

I think more forwards pan out largely because more forwards are taken, but I think if you look at the ratio in recent drafts that we've had the time to assess (2017-2021), you see more potential for busting on forwards but more of it being passable NHL players who never really took the next step like Kotkaniemi and the like.

 

[sfvega]

Just out of curiosity, would you decline if someone offered us the chance to pick Demidov (while the top defensive prospects are already off the board)? I wouldn't be surprised if he falls a couple of spots due to the Russian factor and could be had with pick 4-7.

I might, he'sreally talented. But I'm not so sure DA agrees with parting with all those points for the upcoming season.

 

[Blueston]

I’m thinking the exact same thing. I mean, if the BPA is a d-man then great! But I wouldn’t force it.

Have you been watching Sennecke in the OHL playoffs at all? He’s been a monster! He wasn’t really on my radar for that range all season but now I think there’s a good chance he’s gone before 16.

I was getting really excited watching senecke earlier in playoffs, as his upside in immense. but the more I see him, the less excited i am bc I expect he will not be there at 16. At this point I think he is far more likely to go top 10 than be on board at 16.

 

[Brian39]

I’m just not as high on this D class as most. I like a lot of them but pretty much each one has what could be a pretty fatal flaw.

10 - Levshunov. Brings pretty much all of the physical elements you want but I question his hockey sense a bit. Are his dumb plays because he’s trying too much in college hockey and hasn’t adapted yet (he was the 3rd youngest player in college hockey this season) or is it because he’s just not processing the game super fast? He’s good but very inconsistent.

I don't do nearly the amount of prospect watching you do, but I went to the Michigan vs Michgan State game at Centene and came away pretty underwhelmed by Levshunov. I totally agree with your questioning on his hockey sense. I felt that he made the wrong play as often as he made the right play.

My expectations were probably too high going in and 1 game is nothing in the grand scheme of talent analysis. But it did temper my hype about this year's class of D prospects at the top.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

I don't think the gap of the 1-4 Defenseman and the rest of the first round is large enough to trade up unless all it takes is our 1st and a 2nd.

 

[PerryTurnbullfan]

I was getting really excited watching senecke earlier in playoffs, as his upside in immense. but the more I see him, the less excited i am bc I expect he will not be there at 16. At this point I think he is far more likely to go top 10 than be on board at 16.

You look for guys that can step it up a level in the playoffs. This guy stepped it up for the playoffs.

 

[Blueston]

i've now watched 2 full sweden u18 games (unfortunately i didn't see the best one, against czechs). they're clearly nowhere near as good as last year, either in terms of high-end talent or depth of nhl prosepects.

lsw is nice player but on small side. i know button keeps gushing on him and the obvious comp is guy who wore 4 for sweden last year in this tourney, but lsw doesn't look near as dynamic as asp. track record of swedish d under 6' with relatively small frame is not particularly good. that said, he is good player and at some point risk becomes worth it, but i don't see that point occurring in 1st round for us.

freij i so wanted to like him. he was guy i was most looking forward to seeing in this tournament. i thought he might even be option for our 1st. i no longer think that. freij has good size, great skating, easy handle, natural offensive skills. on raw talent you could see him as top 10 pick (you get visions of sergachev). but his game lacks maturity, his decision making and defensive commitment are questionable at times. how much of it is lacking hockey sense versus how much is he's a teenager and those parts of his game will come as he ages? That will ultimately define him as a player. he isn't as good defensively as you would want if he is going to play 23+ minutes a night, so the juice better be pretty darn sweet to be worth the squeeze. i have him late 1st/early 2nd. he's a boom or bust type, but if he puts it together could be real stud,

eriksson--him i like. captain of swedish u18 team. played against men this year on djurgardens team that lost in finals to lindstein's brynas club for promotion to sel. center with nhl size and skill and bit of snarl. i don't think he has high end offensive upside, but i would be happy with drafting him as early as late 1st.

pettersson- not quite as big as you would like for a center but isn't too far off, good player, has some skill. reminds me a bit of ostlund, but not quite as good. question is whether that means he is still nhl player or fallls short and is just really good over in sweden? thinking someone will bet on his talent in 2nd round.

zetterbug- tiny. like nathan walker could eat soup off his head. att this level he always seems to make an impact and has been arguably top forward his agre group in sweden for years. i expect someone will take him by 3rd.

fernstrom- this is more a case of me looking for him than him being noticeable. he has some size and skill but doesn't seem particularly dynamic. 3-5th rounder to me.

nobody else really stood out to me (amongst draft eligibles; eklund- little brother of shark- looks to be a player)..overall, i'd say freij looks to be most talented but eriksson is who i would most want blues to pick,

 

[PerryTurnbullfan]

i've now watched 2 full sweden u18 games (unfortunately i didn't see the best one, against czechs). they're clearly nowhere near as good as last year, either in terms of high-end talent or depth of nhl prosepects.

lsw is nice player but on small side. i know button keeps gushing on him and the obvious comp is guy who wore 4 for sweden last year in this tourney, but lsw doesn't look near as dynamic as asp. track record of swedish d under 6' with relatively small frame is not particularly good. that said, he is good player and at some point risk becomes worth it, but i don't see that point occurring in 1st round for us.

freij i so wanted to like him. he was guy i was most looking forward to seeing in this tournament. i thought he might even be option for our 1st. i no longer think that. freij has good size, great skating, easy handle, natural offensive skills. on raw talent you could see him as top 10 pick (you get visions of sergachev). but his game lacks maturity, his decision making and defensive commitment are questionable at times. how much of it is lacking hockey sense versus how much is he's a teenager and those parts of his game will come as he ages? That will ultimately define him as a player. he isn't as good defensively as you would want if he is going to play 23+ minutes a night, so the juice better be pretty darn sweet to be worth the squeeze. i have him late 1st/early 2nd. he's a boom or bust type, but if he puts it together could be real stud,

eriksson--him i like. captain of swedish u18 team. played against men this year on djurgardens team that lost in finals to lindstein's brynas club for promotion to sel. center with nhl size and skill and bit of snarl. i don't think he has high end offensive upside, but i would be happy with drafting him as early as late 1st.

pettersson- not quite as big as you would like for a center but isn't too far off, good player, has some skill. reminds me a bit of ostlund, but not quite as good. question is whether that means he is still nhl player or fallls short and is just really good over in sweden? thinking someone will bet on his talent in 2nd round.

zetterbug- tiny. like nathan walker could eat soup off his head. att this level he always seems to make an impact and has been arguably top forward his agre group in sweden for years. i expect someone will take him by 3rd.

fernstrom- this is more a case of me looking for him than him being noticeable. he has some size and skill but doesn't seem particularly dynamic. 3-5th rounder to me.

nobody else really stood out to me (amongst draft eligibles; eklund- little brother of shark- looks to be a player)..overall, i'd say freij looks to be most talented but eriksson is who i would most want blues to pick,

I have to agree with you on all accounts. Freij has left me wanting as has LSW, but I will blame their GM too. They could've picked a D core very similar to last years that would at least pause the turnstile they have been on defense. Terrible talent selection. Almost as bad as Faulk and Krug.....

Ericksson I really like as well and think he could top out as a #2 or just a #3 center that gets the best out of his wingers. Solid 200ft player. Some of the best Swedes aren't here.....

 

[Majorityof1]

You look for guys that can step it up a level in the playoffs. This guy stepped it up for the playoffs.

A single point does not make a line. Just because he is stepping it up this playoffs, does not mean he always steps it up when it matters. He may just be a streaky player getting hot at the right time. I don't know as I have not followed his career. Just saying to be wary of small sample sizes even if they are playoffs.

 

[Blueston]

A single point does not make a line. Just because he is stepping it up this playoffs, does not mean he always steps it up when it matters. He may just be a streaky player getting hot at the right time. I don't know as I have not followed his career. Just saying to be wary of small sample sizes even if they are playoffs.

it's not just the production. guy had a growth spurt about a year ago and took him time to get comfortable in his body. he got better and better as the season went on. he can now slice through oppponents with ease, either to set up teammates or get scoring chance for himself. and this has only accelerated in playoffs. this isn't a point this is an arrow pointing up!

 

[Majorityof1]

it's not just the production. guy had a growth spurt about a year ago and took him time to get comfortable in his body. he got better and better as the season went on. he can now slice through oppponents with ease, either to set up teammates or get scoring chance for himself. and this has only accelerated in playoffs. this isn't a point this is an arrow pointing up!

Then it has nothing to do with the playoffs and more of a natural progression. So he is not "money" in the playoffs. Again, I don't follow the kid. I've just seen players have one really good playoffs and suddenly get a reputation for being a great playoff player even if its not necessarily true.

 

[Blueston]

Then it has nothing to do with the playoffs and more of a natural progression. So he is not "money" in the playoffs. Again, I don't follow the kid. I've just seen players have one really good playoffs and suddenly get a reputation for being a great playoff player even if its not necessarily true.

yes, but it's not just that. when i think of whether player is playoff player, i focus on how they play through contact, how they look when things get tighter, physically and mentally, when you don't play teams like ducks every 3rd game. so you can observe does player seem to thrive in this environment and weigh it in your assessment of their value, which is why folks wanted tkachuk even though his playoff numbers had been meh in calgary but marner scares everybody. goals in a playoff series aren't that predictive of future success because of small sample size, i agree, but if a player is consistently able to create these chances even under playoff conditions, that is gold.

 

[Majorityof1]

yes, but it's not just that. when i think of whether player is playoff player, i focus on how they play through contact, how they look when things get tighter, physically and mentally, when you don't play teams like ducks every 3rd game. so you can observe does player seem to thrive in this environment and weigh it in your assessment of their value, which is why folks wanted tkachuk even though his playoff numbers had been meh in calgary but marner scares everybody. goals in a playoff series aren't that predictive of future success because of small sample size, i agree, but if a player is consistently able to create these chances even under playoff conditions, that is gold.

But the poster I was referring to didn't look at any of that, or at least didn't mention it if he did. He said "This guy stepped it up for the playoffs." Nothing about pushing through contact or the rest. He took a small sample size and extrapolated that this is the type of player we want. I said "Hey, be leery, small sample size". Then you wrote a paragraph, only to finish with "hey small sample size so its not predictive".