GunnarStahl
Let’s go shake their hands
- Oct 13, 2020
- 2,051
- 2,855
The Ducks are entering 2024 in 30th place, good for the 3rd best odds in the NHL draft lottery. While they started strong in October, they did not have a November to Remember, and their December left a lot to be desired. The main purpose of this thread, in my opinion will be to discuss where the Ducks will finish in the standings and the resulting implications for draft day and the Ducks future. Above will be a poll to share where you think the Ducks will finish in the standings.
The Jackpot and Consulation Prizes
The main prize this year and consensus 1st overall projection is Macklin Celebrini. A smart skilled Center with solid goal scoring instincts and high playmaking sense. He has excelled in the NCAA this year putting up a very notable season for a 17 year old in College hockey. As well as he is currently putting on a strong performance at the U20 WJC, with 6 points in 3 games played so far. Should be noted he is also rather young for this class, with a mid-June birthday.
From Elite Prospects: “Not quite halfway through the college season, Macklin Celebrini has already amassed 10 goals and 15 assists. The presumptive No. 1 pick at this summer’s draft is a mastermind. He outthinks the opposition in all three zones, anticipating plays well in advance and manipulating defenders with fast-twitch handling and edge work. Relentless inside attacks and attention to detail will earn the coaching staff's trust.“
Other noted rewards for finishing in the bottom 10 include:
Cole Eiserman: potentially will be a record setting goal scorer for the NTDP, surpassing notable names such as Cole Caufield and Auston Matthews. Has been criticized for being one dimensional.
Ivan Demidov: Dynamic Russian winger with superb stick handling and creativity. Often mentioned as being one of the future Russian greats, however he does have some contract concerns and has displayed low effort at times this year, though many contribute this to being relegated to the Russian Junior league.
Artyom Levshunov: a 6’2” Belarusian defender playing in the NCAA. Has played at a point per game pace for Michigan State and has led them to becoming a very competitive team. Has played at a point per game pace, while displaying an advanced two way game.
Cayden Lindstrom: A personal favorite of mine. A 6’4” power forward with immense physical gifts. Possess a large frame, strength with more room for future bulking, and surprising speed and maneuverability for a player of his size. He has one of the best shots in the draft, good stick handling, and the ability to crash the net and enforce his will in the crease. Has been noted as being a bit raw at times, as well as potentially not the greatest play driver.
Anton Silayev: A 6’7” Russian defender, has found success in the KHL as a draft eligible defenseman after a hot start. Has cooled off offensively but has hung around, playing capably in the KHL as a draft eligible defender and being 6’7” pretty much sells itself to GMs.
Sam Dickinson: A 6’3 Canadian Defenseman. Has displayed a very advanced 2-way game, as well as a physical game. A defenseman that does everything a coach wants.
Konsta Helenius: Has been an offfensive threat in Liiga, and has been one of the best players for his pro team. He also possesses a strong 2 way game, and high hockey IQ.
What factors could move them up in the standings?
Health: the Ducks have lacked a fully healthy roster all season, often they have been missing two top 6 forwards and one top 4 defender at a given time. As well as some depth players missing some significant time. This has resulted in some rather depleted rosters with limited threats, making them easy to shutdown.
Strength of Schedule: The Ducks have the third easiest remaining schedule, when average out the points percentage of their remaining opponents. It’s not unlikely they could beat up on the other bottom feeders and climb up a few rungs.
Goaltending: The Ducks have two very capable goaltenders who can steal/ keep them in games.
Kids getting hot: Many players have yet to take off, doing so could propel this team a few slots upwards in the standings, notable players who have been cold include Troy Terry and Trevor Zegras.
Shooting percentage: The Ducks currently have the second worst shooting percentage in the league, 6.75% from money puck. Regressing to the mean could bring them some wins.
What can keep them down in the standings?
Health: has been an issue all year, could easily continue to be. Even currently, Lundestrom is still out, Carlsson out for a month or more, and Terry and Gudas are day to day (allegedly).
Trade deadline selling: Likely pieces like Henrique and Lybushkin will be gone, potentially Carrick. Maybe even a sell high piece with term like Vatrano. Losing these pieces, while not stars, would expose the lack of depth even further. But the biggest piece that could move is Gibson, losing a solid goaltender could expose many more issues with this team.
Vibes: When things are bad they don’t always have to get better, morale could be very low.
Where do I think they will finish?
I’m going to say they will finish in the 5-8 range. I don’t think they will improve a ton but these last two months were abysmal, and as the team hopefully progresses to a more healthy line up a think they pick up their play a bit and move a few slots up. Especially as they enter contests against more fellow bottom feeders.
Edit: I am getting rather tired of their placement in the standings, it’s annoying that it’s been so long of thinking how close they are to the bottom, rather than how far from the top they are.
The Jackpot and Consulation Prizes
The main prize this year and consensus 1st overall projection is Macklin Celebrini. A smart skilled Center with solid goal scoring instincts and high playmaking sense. He has excelled in the NCAA this year putting up a very notable season for a 17 year old in College hockey. As well as he is currently putting on a strong performance at the U20 WJC, with 6 points in 3 games played so far. Should be noted he is also rather young for this class, with a mid-June birthday.
From Elite Prospects: “Not quite halfway through the college season, Macklin Celebrini has already amassed 10 goals and 15 assists. The presumptive No. 1 pick at this summer’s draft is a mastermind. He outthinks the opposition in all three zones, anticipating plays well in advance and manipulating defenders with fast-twitch handling and edge work. Relentless inside attacks and attention to detail will earn the coaching staff's trust.“
Other noted rewards for finishing in the bottom 10 include:
Cole Eiserman: potentially will be a record setting goal scorer for the NTDP, surpassing notable names such as Cole Caufield and Auston Matthews. Has been criticized for being one dimensional.
Ivan Demidov: Dynamic Russian winger with superb stick handling and creativity. Often mentioned as being one of the future Russian greats, however he does have some contract concerns and has displayed low effort at times this year, though many contribute this to being relegated to the Russian Junior league.
Artyom Levshunov: a 6’2” Belarusian defender playing in the NCAA. Has played at a point per game pace for Michigan State and has led them to becoming a very competitive team. Has played at a point per game pace, while displaying an advanced two way game.
Cayden Lindstrom: A personal favorite of mine. A 6’4” power forward with immense physical gifts. Possess a large frame, strength with more room for future bulking, and surprising speed and maneuverability for a player of his size. He has one of the best shots in the draft, good stick handling, and the ability to crash the net and enforce his will in the crease. Has been noted as being a bit raw at times, as well as potentially not the greatest play driver.
Anton Silayev: A 6’7” Russian defender, has found success in the KHL as a draft eligible defenseman after a hot start. Has cooled off offensively but has hung around, playing capably in the KHL as a draft eligible defender and being 6’7” pretty much sells itself to GMs.
Sam Dickinson: A 6’3 Canadian Defenseman. Has displayed a very advanced 2-way game, as well as a physical game. A defenseman that does everything a coach wants.
Konsta Helenius: Has been an offfensive threat in Liiga, and has been one of the best players for his pro team. He also possesses a strong 2 way game, and high hockey IQ.
What factors could move them up in the standings?
Health: the Ducks have lacked a fully healthy roster all season, often they have been missing two top 6 forwards and one top 4 defender at a given time. As well as some depth players missing some significant time. This has resulted in some rather depleted rosters with limited threats, making them easy to shutdown.
Strength of Schedule: The Ducks have the third easiest remaining schedule, when average out the points percentage of their remaining opponents. It’s not unlikely they could beat up on the other bottom feeders and climb up a few rungs.
Goaltending: The Ducks have two very capable goaltenders who can steal/ keep them in games.
Kids getting hot: Many players have yet to take off, doing so could propel this team a few slots upwards in the standings, notable players who have been cold include Troy Terry and Trevor Zegras.
Shooting percentage: The Ducks currently have the second worst shooting percentage in the league, 6.75% from money puck. Regressing to the mean could bring them some wins.
What can keep them down in the standings?
Health: has been an issue all year, could easily continue to be. Even currently, Lundestrom is still out, Carlsson out for a month or more, and Terry and Gudas are day to day (allegedly).
Trade deadline selling: Likely pieces like Henrique and Lybushkin will be gone, potentially Carrick. Maybe even a sell high piece with term like Vatrano. Losing these pieces, while not stars, would expose the lack of depth even further. But the biggest piece that could move is Gibson, losing a solid goaltender could expose many more issues with this team.
Vibes: When things are bad they don’t always have to get better, morale could be very low.
Where do I think they will finish?
I’m going to say they will finish in the 5-8 range. I don’t think they will improve a ton but these last two months were abysmal, and as the team hopefully progresses to a more healthy line up a think they pick up their play a bit and move a few slots up. Especially as they enter contests against more fellow bottom feeders.
Edit: I am getting rather tired of their placement in the standings, it’s annoying that it’s been so long of thinking how close they are to the bottom, rather than how far from the top they are.
