Blue Jays GDT: 2023 v11 | Wed, Sept 21 | @ NYY | 7:00pm ET/4:00pm PT | Berrios vs Cole

[dredeye]

This game is the example of my non belief in this team. They just can’t hit good pitching. Every team we could face has starters good enough to prevent our bats getting past the wild card.

 

[Cleetus]

I’ve got nothing guys. I’ll more to say when we miss the playoffs by half game

Dang was expecting some shaner fire tonight!

 

[mikeyz]

Ya tough to sweep the Yankees while facing king and Cole

Would have been tougher if they had to play Nat as well!

This game is the example of my non belief in this team. They just can’t hit good pitching. Every team we could face has starters good enough to prevent our bats getting past the wild card.

It's been very rare that they've rocked a SP this season.

 

[Eyedea]

Sucks we couldn’t get a big hit in the 9th. After KK and Springer’s hits, nothing went out of the infield with the top of the order coming up. Simply cannot happen.

Happy to get 2 games but that game was there for the taking. 4 ground balls with the bases load: 2 fielders choices, an error and a ground ball out with your 2-3-4-5 hitters.

Even though they got to him a bit, it’s still Clay Holmes… look at the launch angle and barrel % hitters have had against him over his career.

 

[Eyedea]

This game is the example of my non belief in this team. They just can’t hit good pitching. Every team we could face has starters good enough to prevent our bats getting past the wild card.

Would have been tougher if they had to play Nat as well!


It's been very rare that they've rocked a SP this season.

Kinda hard to rock one of the better pitchers in the league lol. Most important thing is that they have the pitching and defence to keep them in most games.

Jays have won games against a lot of the top pitchers… Strider, Wheeler, Gallen, Webb, Cole, Valdez, Snell, Senga, Castillo, and several others… sometimes the Jays might get shutout (like against Cole) only for them to beat the bullpen, but it’s a win regardless.

 

[phillipmike]

Even though they got to him a bit, it’s still Clay Holmes… look at the launch angle and barrel % hitters have had against him over his career.

I’m not even asking for just a ball in the air; with Bo, Vladdy and Chapman up, you should be able to get a ball out of the infield with the game on the line. Holmes is good but he has given up hits with runners on base and we had 4 opportunities with the middle of the order.

Bo, Vladdy and Horwitz were weak ground balls. Chapman’s ball was better but Torres sucks defensively and if you have an actual 1B there, that’s an easy scoop vs DJ Lemahieu.

 

[phillipmike]

Diamondbacks with a weird schedule to finish the season. Last 3 series of the season vs all AL teams; Yankees, Astros and White Sox.

 

[Cloned]

This is not even close to true
They have to win at least 3 more games to have a chance. Likely 4 or 5.

Winning less than 3 games out of 10 is pretty much the definition of really f***ing it up.

 

[Suntouchable13]

To be fair, not many teams have done much against Ian Cole. I mean his OPS against is .610?

 

[Bjindaho]

To be fair, not many teams have done much against Ian Cole. I mean his OPS against is .610?

I struggle to see why everyone is saying that he's the overwhelming favorite for the Cy Young. I don't disagree that he should be a finalist (and maybe the favorite), but he's only leading IP and ERA (note that bWAR is based on runs allowed, which means that over a full season, it will skew to favor the guys with the best ERA, so while it is the best measure for smaller samples, over time disparities between it and fWAR become less about what the pitcher did and more about "luck" or pitching to contact (which Cole doesn't do).

Depending on what you value, Pablo Lopez, Zach Efflin and Sonny Gray have decent arguments for the Cy. Then there is Gausman, who by Fangraphs has been the best starter in the AL, but voters don't like fWAR (I'd suggest that fWAR might be a little too nice to Kevin).

Is the AL Cy Young Race Cole’s or Too Close To Call?

Gerrit Cole seems like a frontrunner, but a host of other candidates are right on his tail.

blogs.fangraphs.com

Some food for thought (Team stats in games started by pitcher including BP):

Games Started By​	GS​	RS​	RA​	Won​	Lost​
Cole, Gerrit​	32​	149​	110​	22​	10​

Gray, Sonny​

30​

118​

119​

14​

16​

Lopez, Pablo​

30​

160​

130​

17​

13​

Gausman, Kevin​

30​

105​

121​

16​

14​

Castillo, Luis​

31​

157​

103​

19​

12​

Eflin, Zach​

30​

162​

103​

22​

8​

 

[Eyedea]

I’m not even asking for just a ball in the air; with Bo, Vladdy and Chapman up, you should be able to get a ball out of the infield with the game on the line. Holmes is good but he has given up hits with runners on base and we had 4 opportunities with the middle of the order.

Bo, Vladdy and Horwitz were weak ground balls. Chapman’s ball was better but Torres sucks defensively and if you have an actual 1B there, that’s an easy scoop vs DJ Lemahieu.

Sure but this season Holmes gets even better when there are men on base, and even better than that when they're in scoring position. Like I said, weak groundballs is literally Holmes' MO. You can't really expect those to suddenly squeak through infields.

 

[Bjindaho]

Sure but this season Holmes gets even better when there are men on base, and even better than that when they're in scoring position. Like I said, weak groundballs is literally Holmes' MO. You can't really expect those to suddenly squeak through infields.

Also, Chapman's stats with runners in scoring position versus bases empty are hilarious

2023

Men In Scoring

11.3%

30.0%

0.38

.225

.319

.312

.630

.087

.322

15

-4.7

.283

79

vs

2023

Bases Empty

11.6%

28.4%

0.41

.243

.339

.447

.786

.204

.325

41

5.5

.341

119

Edit for clarity: Earlier in the year when he was doing better, his bases empty stats were better, but his men in scoring position stats have consistently been poor all year.

 

[Eyedea]

I struggle to see why everyone is saying that he's the overwhelming favorite for the Cy Young. I don't disagree that he should be a finalist (and maybe the favorite), but he's only leading IP and ERA (note that bWAR is based on runs allowed, which means that over a full season, it will skew to favor the guys with the best ERA, so while it is the best measure for smaller samples, over time disparities between it and fWAR become less about what the pitcher did and more about "luck" or pitching to contact (which Cole doesn't do).

Depending on what you value, Pablo Lopez, Zach Efflin and Sonny Gray have decent arguments for the Cy. Then there is Gausman, who by Fangraphs has been the best starter in the AL, but voters don't like fWAR (I'd suggest that fWAR might be a little too nice to Kevin).

Is the AL Cy Young Race Cole’s or Too Close To Call?

Gerrit Cole seems like a frontrunner, but a host of other candidates are right on his tail.

blogs.fangraphs.com

Some food for thought (Team stats in games started by pitcher including BP):

Games Started By​	GS​	RS​	RA​	Won​	Lost​
Cole, Gerrit​	32​	149​	110​	22​	10​

Gray, Sonny​

30​

118​

119​

14​

16​

Lopez, Pablo​

30​

160​

130​

17​

13​

Gausman, Kevin​

30​

105​

121​

16​

14​

Castillo, Luis​

31​

157​

103​

19​

12​

Eflin, Zach​

30​

162​

103​

22​

8​

He's definitely the overwhelming favourite and it's because he's pitched ~12 more innings than the next closest pitcher, and has an ERA 0.09 better than the next closest pitcher (who has thrown 26 fewer innings). Those things can flip flop if he gets blown out in his next start but at this point I don't think there's an outcome where he isn't the CYA winner. Lopez and Eflin have been predictably better than Cole, but the award isn't for expected outcomes it is for true outcomes.

And then you have the whole W-L element which may just entirely eliminate Gray (no voter wants a sub 10 win guy as their CYA winner).

 

[Bjindaho]

He's definitely the overwhelming favourite and it's because he's pitched ~12 more innings than the next closest pitcher, and has an ERA 0.09 better than the next closest pitcher (who has thrown 26 fewer innings). Those things can flip flop if he gets blown out in his next start but at this point I don't think there's an outcome where he isn't the CYA winner. Lopez and Eflin have been predictably better than Cole, but the award isn't for expected outcomes it is for true outcomes.

And then you have the whole W-L element which may just entirely eliminate Gray (no voter wants a sub 10 win guy as their CYA winner).

My counter argument is that Tampa is better with Efflin on the mound than the Yankees are with Cole on the mound and that Tampa is headed to the playoffs.

There's a magical quality that's given to lowest ERA over most IP that seems to completely ignore the fact that Tampa wins more when Efflin starts than the Yankees do when Cole starts and that Cole has largely been racking up these stats in low leverage (ie after the Yankees are out of it completely), whereas every other pitcher involved is pitching in a playoff race.

 

[Discoverer]

My counter argument is that Tampa is better with Efflin on the mound than the Yankees are with Cole on the mound and that Tampa is headed to the playoffs.

There's a magical quality that's given to lowest ERA over most IP that seems to completely ignore the fact that Tampa wins more when Efflin starts than the Yankees do when Cole starts and that Cole has largely been racking up these stats in low leverage (ie after the Yankees are out of it completely), whereas every other pitcher involved is pitching in a playoff race.

If you're trying to determine who's the best pitcher in the league, why would you take team results into account?

 

[Eyedea]

My counter argument is that Tampa is better with Efflin on the mound than the Yankees are with Cole on the mound and that Tampa is headed to the playoffs.

There's a magical quality that's given to lowest ERA over most IP that seems to completely ignore the fact that Tampa wins more when Efflin starts than the Yankees do when Cole starts and that Cole has largely been racking up these stats in low leverage (ie after the Yankees are out of it completely), whereas every other pitcher involved is pitching in a playoff race.

Counter counter is looking back at 2021 when Ray beat Cole. Cole blew up last few starts to lose the ERA lead, but Ray also blew up in his final start against the Yanks and that was a crucial playoff determining game. Pretty sure the Yanks also won more games when Cole started.

 

[TheTotalPackage]

I’ve got nothing guys. I’ll more to say when we miss the playoffs by half game

You can't miss the playoffs by half games.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Tyler Glasnow, this f***er has 146 K in 110 IP? Jeez.

 

[MS]

I struggle to see why everyone is saying that he's the overwhelming favorite for the Cy Young. I don't disagree that he should be a finalist (and maybe the favorite), but he's only leading IP and ERA (note that bWAR is based on runs allowed, which means that over a full season, it will skew to favor the guys with the best ERA, so while it is the best measure for smaller samples, over time disparities between it and fWAR become less about what the pitcher did and more about "luck" or pitching to contact (which Cole doesn't do).

Depending on what you value, Pablo Lopez, Zach Efflin and Sonny Gray have decent arguments for the Cy. Then there is Gausman, who by Fangraphs has been the best starter in the AL, but voters don't like fWAR (I'd suggest that fWAR might be a little too nice to Kevin).

Is the AL Cy Young Race Cole’s or Too Close To Call?

Gerrit Cole seems like a frontrunner, but a host of other candidates are right on his tail.

blogs.fangraphs.com

Some food for thought (Team stats in games started by pitcher including BP):

Games Started By​	GS​	RS​	RA​	Won​	Lost​
Cole, Gerrit​	32​	149​	110​	22​	10​

Gray, Sonny​

30​

118​

119​

14​

16​

Lopez, Pablo​

30​

160​

130​

17​

13​

Gausman, Kevin​

30​

105​

121​

16​

14​

Castillo, Luis​

31​

157​

103​

19​

12​

Eflin, Zach​

30​

162​

103​

22​

8​

1st in bWAR by a mile (6.7 to 5.1)
1st in innings
1st in ERA
2nd in wins
3rd in Ks

He's this year's Cy Young winner, and it's probably unanimous.

The only stat that doesn't favour him is fWAR which is generally considered the less reliable of the WAR stats for pitchers.

 

[Bjindaho]

1st in bWAR by a mile (6.7 to 5.1)
1st in innings
1st in ERA
2nd in wins
3rd in Ks

He's this year's Cy Young winner, and it's probably unanimous.

The only stat that doesn't favour him is fWAR which is generally considered the less reliable of the WAR stats for pitchers.

I mean, wins and team record in games started by pitcher both favor Efflin.

fWAR is considered less reliable for smaller samples. bWAR over a large sample is a counting stat which is based on runs allowed. Again, I think Cole is the favorite, but using the argument that Cole is the runaway Cy because he's given up the least runs over the most innings ignores the "how he actually pitched" conversation and the pitcher impact.

 

[Kurtz]

Cole is such an overwhelming favourite to win that betting sites won't even allow you to bet on him anymore. And you can still bet on Ohtani and Acuna for MVP and Snell for NL CY, so Cole is a heavier favourite to win his award than those guys to win theirs.

 

[MS]

I mean, wins and team record in games started by pitcher both favor Efflin.

fWAR is considered less reliable for smaller samples. bWAR over a large sample is a counting stat which is based on runs allowed. Again, I think Cole is the favorite, but using the argument that Cole is the runaway Cy because he's given up the least runs over the most innings ignores the "how he actually pitched" conversation and the pitcher impact.

Nobody is voting for the Cy Young based on fWAR and theoreticals.

Cole has the best pitching results in the AL and the best bWAR and it isn't even close. It's going to be an absolute cakewalk.

 

[Bjindaho]

Nobody is voting for the Cy Young based on fWAR and theoreticals.

Cole has the best pitching results in the AL and the best bWAR and it isn't even close. It's going to be an absolute cakewalk.

In your opinion.

My point is that if someone said that Efflin is their choice as AL Cy Young, it would not be an egregious opinion.

 

[MS]

In your opinion.

My point is that if someone said that Efflin is their choice as AL Cy Young, it would not be an egregious opinion.

If someone voted for a player with 3.5 bWAR over a player with 6.7 bWAR, yes, I would consider that an egregious opinion.

It's also basically a fact that Cole will win in a cakewalk. I'd bet my house on it.

 

[Bjindaho]

If someone voted for a player with 3.5 bWAR over a player with 6.7 bWAR, yes, I would consider that an egregious opinion.

It's also basically a fact that Cole will win in a cakewalk. I'd bet my house on it.

You are presenting your opinion as objective fact.