SI
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Prospect Info: 2023 Top Islanders Prospects - Final List
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leeroggy
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- Jan 3, 2010
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2 of the Top7 have already shown they can play in the NHL.
And how many posters here were clamoring for the Red Wings Marinade strategy? You’re getting your wish!
doublechili
For all intensive purposes, your nuts
- Apr 11, 2006
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Tacking on a little game. Pick the 2 players you think may turn out to be the most overestimated and underestimated on the list.
I've seen little or nothing of these guys, but based on just a hunch I'll go with:
Overestimated: Iskhakov
Underestimated: Nurmi
I've seen little or nothing of these guys, but based on just a hunch I'll go with:
Overestimated: Iskhakov
Underestimated: Nurmi
Kevin27NYI
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- Aug 5, 2009
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I think a good amount of these guys can be NHLers around 100 games played (not necessarily with us). Kind of like how Kyle Burroughs found a role elsewhere.
I think Maggio and Ishakov get bumped because they actually have star potential in terms of skill sets.
But I can see Daylan Kueffler, Liukas (him more so) and Durandeau all being bottom 6 forwards.
I think Maggio and Ishakov get bumped because they actually have star potential in terms of skill sets.
But I can see Daylan Kueffler, Liukas (him more so) and Durandeau all being bottom 6 forwards.
Glory Days
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- May 17, 2011
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Underestimated: Liukas
He scored 14 goals in Finland's top men's league as a 20 year old.
Overestimated: George
He needs to seriously ramp up his offensive production. Look at what Adam Pelech was doing in his last two years of junior hockey.
Agree that Liukas is is underrated here, but I think when it comes to gauging forward prospects, a lot of people go off offensive upside more than likelihood to become an NHL player, so I also get it.
On George though, I'm not sure if he really is as far behind Pelech offensively as you suggest here. I do agree it'd be nice to see more offense from him, but when comparing to Pelech, it's worth noting that Pelech got a lot of his points in his post draft seasons on the PP where he played on the top unit, whereas George hasn't had that same opportunity, and since neither are PP players at the NHL level, I do think looking at their non-PP numbers is important to look at. Pelech in his D+1 year put up 40 points in 59 games with 23 of those points coming on the PP. George on the other hand only put up 22 points in 54 games, but only 2 of those points were PP points. So when excluding PP points, George had slightly more points than Pelech did. In Pelech's D+2 season, he was even better, putting up 55 pts in 60 games and finishing 3rd in scoring by a dman. 26 of his points that season were on the PP, so when excluding PP points, it was still better than George's D+1 season by 9 points, which is a decent margin, but it remains to be seen if George can match that in his D+2 season.
It's fair to point out that Pelech earned the top PP unit spot and George did not, which is a valid point, but again worth looking at further. Last season George played with two offensive dmen who were skilled enough to be 1st round picks in Mailloux (31st OA in 2021) and Bonk (22nd OA in 2023) and they got the lion's share of the PP minutes. Given their skill, it does mean George faced some pretty stiff competition to play on the top PP unit. On the other hand, Pelech's D+1 team did not have a single dman who would ever get drafted, and his D+2 team only had one other dman that would get drafted in Travis Dermott (34th OA in 2015), who was just a 16yo rookie at the time and hadn't broken out yet. So Pelech did not have to overcome nearly the same competition to get a spot on the top PP unit as George faced, and it's arguable that D+1 Pelech wouldn't have been on the top PP unit for last year's Knights either.
I'm not trying to say George is as good of a prospect as Pelech was, as I do think Pelech was the better prospect at the same age. Even though I feel Pelech had an easier road to the top unit, that he did have the success he had there still makes him more proven offensively at that point. And it certainly remains to be seen if George can match Pelech's defensive acumen. I'm just saying I don't think George's low offensive numbers necessarily puts him that far behind Pelech. With Mailloux looking likely to be in the pros next season, it'll be interesting to see if George can earn the spot next to Bonk on the PP and hopefully improve his numbers more dramatically.
- May 17, 2011
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There was an analysis done years ago that I can no longer find that basically was able to tie CHL defensemen projectability to PPG regardless of they accrue their points.
If a CHL defensemen is not good enough to earn PP time at the junior level, that is a red flag. Obviously there are outliers, but look at CHL defensemen’s PPG over the last ten years and you’re not going to find many 20-30 point guys in their post draft years making an impact at the NHL level.
Griffin Reinhart is a good example of this.
doublechili
For all intensive purposes, your nuts
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On the one hand I agree, on the other I notice that Pelech's full NTC changes to a 16 team list in about 22 months. He'll be 31, with 4 years left at $5.75M per. Depending on what happens with the Cap and how he's playing, he could be movable at some point after that if a kid steps up.
Again, I generally agree that this is true. But everything is situational. If Pelech had been on a better team, he likely wouldn't have been on the top PP unit, but I don't think that would've made him a worse prospect. Cernak is a good example of what I'm talking about. In his D+1 year, he joined the Erie Otters, a couple seasons after Pelech had moved on. Dermott and Raddysh in the prior year without Pelech had blossomed into solid point producers, and Cernak being a more defensive guy couldn't edge either out for top PP minutes. In his two years there, both after being drafted, Cernak's career high was only 21 points. Will George turn out as good as Cernak? Again, not trying to make a prediction on it, but it's a much more similar situation than comparing George to Pelech. Some others include Muzzin, who was in his overage season before he finally hit 30 points in the OHL. Edmundson had his career high of 25 points in the WHL come in his D+2 year. Dillon didn't even hit 15 points in the WHL until his overage year. Ryan Graves had 22 points in his D+1 season in the Q. And I'm sure I could find more examples if I put some time into it.
I'd like to see the study and see how it compares when focusing on defensive dmen and if total points are still a better predictor than something like 5v5 points. Of course on average guys with high PP pts are going to have higher 5v5 points, so even if 5v5 pts is a better predictor, looking at total points will still look like a good predictor. And that will of course be even more the case when so many dmen make the NHL based largely on offensive skill. But without actually being able to see the results for both total points and 5v5 points, and seeing how they compare as predictors, it's hard to really say that it doesnt matter how one gets their points or if making the top PP unit is really the best predictor for defensive dmen.
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leeroggy
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IslesNorway
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It doesn't matter much. Lou has signed nearly all our players for years and years and years, so we don't need prospects for another 4 or 5 years.
Oh, I've seen much worse, especially for several of the expansion teams at the beginning of the 90s.
I'd even say our own Islanders had some worse prospect bins (albeit, now in hindsight) to kick off this century.
In general, as mentioned in a recent post, we still have plenty of NHL material in the system. There are no bluechippers, and it's unclear who could fit where in the NYI plans moving forward, but there's plenty of NHL-capable material under the right circumstances.
And in some ways better. It takes the approach that you find an ability that can be projected with certainty, and go on from there. Jefferies and Finley skate really well, and so I agree they should be higher.
In terms of potential NHL impact, I'd go:
1. Nelson (3rd line center/potentially 2nd line wing) - His skating is good enough (and can get better) at his size, and he got locked into a role, which held back his offensive stats. When he got the chance to show his skills, he shined. I think he'll widely be recognized as NYI's best prospect in a year.
2. Bolduc (best athlete in the system by far). Has the physical gifts to be an Adrian Aucoin style player if he learns from experience.
3. Holmstrom (3rd line winger, PK) - too smart not to be an NHLer
4. Finley (only player with real explosiveness in the system)
5. Liukas (seems a likely bottom 6 winger)
6. George (he's a project, but the size + edgework is there)
7. Dufour (I think he's missing one thing or another - agility, hockey sense, physicality... If he had one of those things I'd feel better about him.)
9. Jefferies - his acceleration is the thing that stands out. Also a project, but that's the basis.
I don't know enough about Odelius to comment. I think Iskakhov will have an excellent career in Europe. We'll need to see more of Maggio, but players without size or physicality who have meh skating are few and far between in the NHL.
Strongly agree. IMO there's at least 3 NHL regulars in the current list (most likely: Nelson, Bolduc, and Holmstrom), although probably not much more than that (Liukas seems next most likely). Back then I seem to remember that of our prospects, only Andrew MacDonald became an NHL regular, and he wasn't even thought of much as a prospect.
About the only thing I'd disagree with here is George ahead of Odelius. You touched on that though.
Although I've only really watched George in junior action, I have seen Odelius live and understand why particularly EP Rinkside is so high on him (they see him as our top prospect). I'd also say that a U18 gold and a WJC appearance along with a full season of HockeyAllsvenskan play (and he's been on Djurgarden's top pairing for the whole preseason) combine to have him ahead of George on the "achievements to date" list. Dunno who can be the better player over the long run, but Odelius gives me the same vibes I got while watching Gustav Forsling back in the day...
I'm very curious to see what comes of the college guys Finley, Berg (now at North Dakota), Jefferies (entering his senior year), and even Schulz (will be a Finley teammate at Wisconsin). Particularly the Wisconsin boys are just starting their journeys.
And I'll go out on limb and say Nurmi spends most of this season playing pro hockey, perhaps even knocking on the door to the WJC club.
Those four are the safest bets for some prolongued NHL role of some sort. When I look at all these guys like Salo, Cholowski, Hutton, Koivula, Durandeau, and even Iskhakov, I'm thinking at least one of them is going to end up in the league and play a lot more games than folks can envision now. Might not be with the Isles, of course.
I'm gonna throw Maggio's name in there as well. I've mentioned it in the past, but I keep thinking there's an Andrew Shaw/Brendan Gallagher type of NHL pro in him. He'll of course have to learn to adjust from junior scorer to an all-round thorn-in-the-side role first.
Makes sense. Maybe Dufour can also transform a bit. Without the snarl, James Neal wouldn't ever have had the chance to use his release at the NHL level. Dufour needs something like that.
(Though after seeing Oliver Wahlstrom try to be James Neal, he needs to *stop* or his career will be very short.)
Mr Misunderstood
Loser Point User
Ahhhh, that's what they said about how the organization is run, not how things are looking in the prospect pool.
There, they had the Isles in the bottom 3.
That's gotta be like worse than a D-, right?
How can they know or say that? Lol, no way the way the org is run is bottom 3. That's ridiculous. There's more to that than prospects, or the salary cap. NYI secured a top-3 goalie in the NHL for 9 years, who has the mentality + work ethic to stay there. Whatever one might say about other things, crap orgs don't/can't do that. We all know what bottom 3 looks like, and it's not this.
