WJC: 2023 Team Latvia Roster Talk

[Namejs]

@SoundAndFury just casually destroying the dreams of hfboards posters again

I did not read his posts, but I was wondering whether the very simple arithmetics I laid out were too hard to understand?

Because it has nothing to do with my opinion, but literally the free market forces and the money being wagered on all of the games we're discussing here.

Do you want me to dumb it down for you?

 

[kudla]

I did not read his posts, but I was wondering whether the very simple arithmetics I laid out were too hard to understand?

Because it has nothing to do with my opinion, but literally the free market forces and the money being wagered on all of the games we're discussing here.

Do you want me to dumb it down for you?

No, thanks, I got it. Anyway, now that even Honzek is out, the game should be pretty tight. Hoping for a good one.

 

[SoundAndFury]

I did not read his posts, but I was wondering whether the very simple arithmetics I laid out were too hard to understand?

Hilarious considering 2/4 possible outcomes of the Slovakia - Switzerland game making the Slovakia - Latvia game completely irrelevant evidently "just as expected" for you. Very cool.

Well, the issue is that most people here can rely on their own opinion and blatantly see that man for man, Slovakia is the better team than Switzerland this year. Not only do those 2/4 outcomes exist, but they are also very likely to happen. That's the difference between people who know hockey to a reasonable degree and your world of "free market forces and statistical models" with what is at this point a laundry list of absurd statements.

 

[SoundAndFury]

The funniest thing is, this whole thing was caused also not by my own opinion but by the clear and obvious point that Switzerland gaining 2 points more vs USA/Finland and Slovakia gaining 3 points more clearly puts Latvia behind the 8-ball even more so than expected.

It's obvious to anyone who bothers to look at the standings and understands Slovakia-Switzerland still have the game against each other to play. But no, Namejs had to fly in here with the "it doesn't actually change anything" take. Well, it does, it very simply does in the most brutal fashion imaginable. To the point, where Latvia's destiny isn't even in their own hands. Even if all prerequisites are fulfilled Latvian destiny is still in the hands of Switzerland.

Do you want me to dumb it down for you?

 

[Czechboy]

 

[SoundAndFury]

So it's official, regulation win over Slovakia AND Switzerland's win against Slovakia are both needed for Latvians to advance.

But let's take solace in the fact that common sense dictates needing Switzerland to win as well is almost the same as it not being a required condition

 

[Eye of Ra]

Assuming we beat Slovakia in regulation, which was a commonly assumed prerequisite before the group stage,

It was not. You are the only one who think this. Slovakia is alot stronger than Latvia.

 

[SoundAndFury]

It was not. You are the only one who think this. Slovakia is alot stronger than Latvia.

He means that if Latvia was ever to have any chances to advance they had to beat Slovakia. Which is semi-correct. He's not saying Latvia is stronger.

 

[Eye of Ra]

He means that if Latvia was ever to have any chances to advance they had to beat Slovakia. Which is semi-correct. He's not saying Latvia is stronger.

Ah. I need to stop listen to Kudla.

 

[Namejs]

The funniest thing is, this whole thing was caused also not by my own opinion but by the clear and obvious point that Switzerland gaining 2 points more vs USA/Finland and Slovakia gaining 3 points more clearly puts Latvia behind the 8-ball even more so than expected.

It's obvious to anyone who bothers to look at the standings and understands Slovakia-Switzerland still have the game against each other to play. But no, Namejs had to fly in here with the "it doesn't actually change anything" take. Well, it does, it very simply does in the most brutal fashion imaginable. To the point, where Latvia's destiny isn't even in their own hands. Even if all prerequisites are fulfilled Latvian destiny is still in the hands of Switzerland.

Do you want me to dumb it down for you?

The probability of Latvia advancing to the play-off stage was always significantly below 50%.

The very fact that there is a very strong overlap in quality between Latvia and Switzerland/Slovakia is viewed positively by any Latvian hockey fan.

The current Latvian odds of qualifying stands at roughly 17%. Statistically speaking, that is higher than the implied probability of the Latvian national team advancing to the play-offs BEFORE the start of the group stage of World Championships.

Yet you called it 'minimal' as if there was no hope left, and went on to publish some internalized nonsense with incorrect assumptions about the likely progression of events.

The Latvian chances are not minimal and you have to be unable to understand basic probability theory to still hold on to that view.

It's either that or your command of the English language is not good enough to understand the meaning of the word 'minimal', which means "negligible, so small or unimportant as to be not worth considering; insignificant".

 

[jonas2244]

The probability of Latvia advancing to the play-off stage was always significantly below 50%.

The very fact that there is a very strong overlap in quality between Latvia and Switzerland/Slovakia is viewed positively by any Latvian hockey fan.

The current Latvian odds of qualifying stands at roughly 17%. Statistically speaking, that is higher than the implied probability of the Latvian national team advancing to the play-offs BEFORE the start of the group stage of World Championships.

Before the tournament I'd have said that Swi-Lat is a 50-50 matchup and to be honest it was. The Swiss win vs. Finland changed the momentum a little bit but before the tournament I'd have guessed the chance of advancing for Latvia to 50%.

Now it's slimmer as you say. But I just cannot see you guys losing to Austria afterwards so there is another chance next year.

 

[Namejs]

Before the tournament I'd have said that Swi-Lat is a 50-50 matchup and to be honest it was. The Swiss win vs. Finland changed the momentum a little bit but before the tournament I'd have guessed the chance of advancing for Latvia to 50%.

Now it's slimmer as you say. But I just cannot see you guys losing to Austria afterwards so there is another chance next year.

It's above 50% if we beat Slovakia in regulation in a few hours time.

We'll start thinking about Austria, if we don't make the play-offs.

 

[SoundAndFury]

Yet you called it 'minimal' as if there was no hope left, and went on to publish some internalized nonsense with incorrect assumptions about the likely progression of events.

And they are incorrect because... market forces? Okay.

By the way, "definitely-not-a-KHL-player" Nikolajs Jelisejevs scored his 10th goal of the season today. On the powerplay. For the team that's currently 5th in the conference. Something else to celebrate for the "Latvian hockey fan" such as yourself.

 

[stastny12]

@Namejs Check the statistics now (sorry but I couldn´t resist )

But seriously now, you were playing very well, organized and dangerous... possibly even better performance than Slovakia, at least in the second.

 

[hypereconomist]

Latvia is good defensively and have a few players that look good and are obviously skilled enough to thrive in good leagues (WHL, USHL, Swiss U20, etc.), yet they're so terrible offensively.

In both the Finland and Slovak game, they struggled to get shots through traffic, played the perimeter a lot despite being so big, struggled to hold the line, and just can't get shots off fast enough.

Is this just a coaching thing? It's a bit strange

 

[Rusty7550]

Latvia played solid hockey during the whole group stage but man ... Scoring goals is a serious problem. With better goal scoring ability, Latvia could beat Swiss and maybe at least a point from FIN/SVK games

 

[SoundAndFury]

Well, from the Latvian perspective we can rejoice that as long as Russia and Belarus are kept out of it, at least there is a real chance to become a mainstay in the elite for the coming years. If Austria was obviously just living on borrowed time, Latvia only has to be moderately worried about Norway coming up every 2 years.

 

[BigRangy]

Really liked Locmelis. I think he’ll be a solid NHLer.

 

[PanniniClaus]

Latvia is miles better than Austria and really did put on a good show.. a little puck luck and they are playing a quarter final.

 

[SHLfantasycamp]

Anrī Ravinskis played in the GTHL. Minor hockey in Toronto, Canada.

 

[SoundAndFury]

So from what I can see, on the actual gameday every betting site has Slovakia as favorites. Odds being ~2.7 on Swiss regulation win and ~2.15 for the Slovak one. Oh how could have anyone seen this happen

#incorrect assumptions

By the way, Namejs, can you dumb it down for us how market forces work? Because at this point it sure looks like you are the one who doesn't understand.