Prospect Info: 2023 NHL Draft - Potential Selection Discussion

[LeafChief]

This used to be a really great thread in pasts years that used to be stickied at the top. Wonder if we can get that going again? Posters like @stickty111, @Morgs and @SeaOfBlue (among others) did a really great job of updating on players that may be in the Leafs range for the upcoming draft.

Of course, we may see some of these picks traded over the next few months (and we can see some added at the draft as we saw with this past draft) but definitely something fun and interesting to discuss and follow.

Leafs Current Picks
1st Rounder
3rd Rounder
3rd Rounder (from Ottawa - Murray trade)
5th Rounder
6th Rounder

The recent Mock Draft from mynhldraft.com (updated January 16th) has the Leafs selecting 26th overall and choosing Oliver Bonk (son of Radek Bonk).

The Mock Draft has a big centre and a big goalie sandwiching our pick.

Hopefully we can get some discussion going on who people would like to see selected with our picks.

Click to read more...

 

[ItalianLeaf]

Leafs will not have a 1st rounder, book it.

 

[kb]

Leafs will not have a 1st rounder, book it.

Oh they will. No one worth giving up a first for who will fit under the cap next season.

 

[darrylsittler27]

News flash the Leafs have a zero chance at Bedard.

Oh they will. No one worth giving up a first for who will fit under the cap next season.

If we get a younger guy with term it’s justified after we get a 2nd for Holl.

 

[HockeyVirus]

Oh they will. No one worth giving up a first for who will fit under the cap next season.

We've dealt our first more times to navigate the cap than we have to buy players. While I don't think we will need to do that again, we can't rule it out. Murray for example might be moved on from after this year and if he epically collapses in the 2nd half and has a horrid playoff, who knows?

 

[kb]

News flash the Leafs have a zero chance at Bedard.


If we get a younger guy with term it’s justified after we get a 2nd for Holl.

Thank you for the update. There are other players in this draft too.

Again....this younger guy with term needs to fit under the cap going forward. Otherwise it's a waste.

We've dealt our first more times to navigate the cap than we have to buy players. While I don't think we will need to do that again, we can't rule it out. Murray for example might be moved on from after this year and if he epically collapses in the 2nd half and has a horrid playoff, who knows?

That is not going to happen. Use a first to trade away a player?

This years first is pretty much off limits unless they can make a move that can work under the cap today and going forward. It's not going to be used as a sweetener in a trade.

 

[HockeyVirus]

Thank you for the update. There are other players in this draft too.

Again....this younger guy with term needs to fit under the cap going forward. Otherwise it's a waste.


That is not going to happen. Use a first to trade away a player?

We did it with Marleau and just did it to dump Mrazek. Not outlandish to suggest it happens again

 

[kb]

We did it with Marleau and just did it to dump Mrazek. Not outlandish to suggest it happens again

That was Lou's stupidity and Murray does not have a NTC. There were other suitors for Murray, too.

The Leafs moved back 13 spots in the Mrazek deal. They did not trade away a first and get nothing.

 

[fahad203]

Radek Bonks kid. Radek at one point considered next Jagr type of player. Good for him to stay in Ottawa after hockey

 

[LeafChief]

News flash the Leafs have a zero chance at Bedard.

When I made this thread I didn't expect to get groundbreaking information like this but I'm definitely glad to see it. Lets keep it coming!

 

[Maplebeasts]

I'm personally hoping Quentin Musty continues to be rated as low he is. He'd be a great get in the late first.

 

[Morgs]

Leafs will not have a 1st rounder, book it.

 

[Morgs]

I'm personally hoping Quentin Musty continues to be rated as low he is. He'd be a great get in the late first.

Musty & Dragicevic are probably my two favourites right now. Feels like no chance either makes it to us, so I'm not getting attached.

 

[francis246]

Oliver Bonk would be my top pick. Solid RHD. Lots of upside.

Dragicevic would be great but he’ll likely be a riser.

Charley Stramel wouldn’t be bad either. We haven’t drafted a legit center prospect with top 6 potential since Kadri

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Musty & Dragicevic are probably my two favourites right now. Feels like no chance either makes it to us, so I'm not getting attached.

I would be surprised if Musty is not there.

The bigger concern are the major red flags attached with him.

Brock Otten probably describes it best:

Just when you think you've got Musty figured out, it seems like a poor performance throws a wrinkle in that. My live viewings of him this year have been poor. While my video viewings of him have been terrific. I was really starting to grow to like him but then I saw him play in Hamilton recently and he had a very poor game. Now...granted he played through a hand injury in that game (which has kept him out of action since), so it's probably measured with a grain of salt. Point being, he's a tough player to form a steady opinion on. There's so much good...especially under new coach Derek MacKenzie. He is highly skilled. He shows well as both a scorer and playmaker. His decision making with the puck has slowly started improving; his turnovers are being limited. He is playing with more physical tenacity and finding his way to the middle of the ice more consistently. His upside is, without question, the highest of any OHL player eligible this year. Yet...I'm just not sure an NHL scout will be willing to risk their neck for him as a first rounder. His defensive game is nearly non existent. He is often the last player back to the defensive zone and the first to exit. His first step quickness is not terrific. His ability to utilize his shot and get himself in scoring position remains a work in progress. And, while it has shown progress, his puck management remains a development target. I had a scout ask me the other day about what Musty can do to shake his reputation as a "risky selection" (we actually answered this on the THN podcast). It's a great question. The answer is probably continue to show the positive growth that he has the last month or two. When he returns from his injury, hopefully he can continue to show progress. If he's able to improve on the above areas, the upside truly is that of a first line player.

He is a massive risk with a first round pick. He is the kind of guy that a rebuilding team with multiple 2nds may take with one of their earlier ones, but nothing about him is consistent and is arguably the biggest boom-bust guy in the top 50.

 

[Morgs]

I would be surprised if Musty is not there.

The bigger concern are the major red flags attached with him.

Brock Otten probably describes it best:



He is a massive risk with a first round pick. He is the kind of guy that a rebuilding team with multiple 2nds may take with one of their earlier ones, but nothing about him is consistent and is arguably the biggest boom-bust guy in the top 50.

For me the closest player to Musty as of today is Arthur Kaliyev, who I had as a top-10 pick. I remember hearing similar issues with him with effort/defense/etc, and he'd be a top-10 pick today and improving. A guy who's a dual-threat offensively, great hands, and a good skater? Yeah, he's the exact kind of guy I'd LOVE to take in the late 1st.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Oliver Bonk would be my top pick. Solid RHD. Lots of upside.

Dragicevic would be great but he’ll likely be a riser.

Charley Stramel wouldn’t be bad either. We haven’t drafted a legit center prospect with top 6 potential since Kadri

Stramel or Dragicevic would be solid. Dragicevic may be a stretch for the late first, but Stramel should be there.

Also good with Heidt, Danielson, or Ritchie. All three could be gone by our pick, but Heidt is rated low, Danielson is not as electric as some of the other guys who are rated in his range (which hopefully could allow him to fly under the radar a little bit), and Ritchie needs work on his skating but if guys like Conor Geekie is going 11th overall, I doubt we see Ritchie last too far beyond the top 15.

 

[Morgs]

Stramel or Dragicevic would be solid. Dragicevic may be a stretch for the late first, but Stramel should be there.

Also good with Heidt, Danielson, or Ritchie. All three could be gone by our pick, but Heidt is rated low, Danielson is not as electric as some of the other guys who are rated in his range (which hopefully could allow him to fly under the radar a little bit), and Ritchie needs work on his skating but if guys like Conor Geekie is going 11th overall, I doubt we see Ritchie last too far beyond the top 15.

Danielson is a guy I really like. Definitely a Dubas-type of target too.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

For me the closest player to Musty as of today is Arthur Kaliyev, who I had as a top-10 pick. I remember hearing similar issues with him with effort/defense/etc, and he'd be a top-10 pick today and improving. A guy who's a dual-threat offensively, great hands, and a good skater? Yeah, he's the exact kind of guy I'd LOVE to take in the late 1st.

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In what way has Kaliyev looked anything like a top 10 pick to this point? He has provided 3rd line production in a heavily sheltered offensive role.

Even in 2019, which hasn't yielded too many sexy looking prospects to this point, he doesn't look like a top 10 guy.

It is a good comparable, but we are selling Kaliyev a little bit too high right now. Musty, like Kaliyev, would be a fine top 50 pick. Maybe could slip into a top 25 in a weaker draft, which this is not. Maybe a team falls in love with Musty, or he has a really good 2nd half where he quells some of the consistency concerns, but at this point, he is probably not even BPA at our selection. Maybe highest upside, but also more downside too and at a position which is not exactly a need.

 

[Morgs]

In what way has Kaliyev looked anything like a top 10 pick to this point? He has provided 3rd line production in a heavily sheltered offensive role.

Even in 2019, which hasn't yielded too many sexy looking prospects to this point, he doesn't look like a top 10 guy.

It is a good comparable, but we are selling Kaliyev a little bit too high right now. Musty, like Kaliyev, would be a fine top 50 pick. Maybe could slip into a top 25 in a weaker draft, which this is not. Maybe a team falls in love with Musty, or he has a really good 2nd half where he quells some of the consistency concerns, but at this point, he is probably not even BPA at our selection. Maybe highest upside, but also more downside too and at a position which is not exactly a need.

Well I had Kaliyev as a top-10 guy (might have been a little too high on him), and LA just simply hasn't used him in a top-6 role. His production is actually pretty impressive based on his minutes, but also 2019 is pretty bad outside of Hughes, Zegras, Cozens, Boldy, Caufield, Byram, and Seider. You could probably an argument he's around that 8-10 spot with Dach, Kakko, Pinto, Tomasino, and Newhook.

Musty though, mid-round first for me right now. I don't worry too much about defense/effort/consistency levels of 17 year old wingers unless it's Ryan Merkley levels of effort, and even then talent like that doesn't grow on trees.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I can't share too much this year, but lower ranked guys I like as mid-late round targets:

C/LW Felix Nilsson (78 EU)
RW/LW Felix Unger Sorum (90 EU)
LD/RD Daniil Karpovich (Unranked EU)
C/LW Isac Hedqvist (Unranked EU)
RW/LW Vadim Moroz (56 EU)
RW/LW Stan Yarovoi (53 EU)
G Damian Clara (8 G EU)
G Yegor Zavragin (10 G EU)

RD Hunter Mayo (Unranked NA)
G Harrison Meneghin (27 G NA)
C Tommasso De Luca (144 NA)
LD Larry Keenan (107 NA)
LD Warren Clark (182 NA) (he is a rare RH LD)

And since I think they do not rank 02' skaters (the only 02' I could find was Max Lundgren, who was oddly ranked the 10th best NA goalie this year):

RD Bogdan Konyushkov
RD Fedor Kroshchinsky (I currently don't have him on my late round target list as I am capping it at 50 for now, but when I do expand it, he would be one of my first)
RW/LW Alex Suvorov
RD Maxim Fedotov

Overall, the CSS rankings are pretty good this year. They really tried to get creative to fill out the goalie list, but considering there are only about a dozen draftable goalies this year, I don't blame them. Of course, a few of their choices in the back half of the top 100 NA were head scratchers.

 

[darrylsittler27]

Thank you for the update. There are other players in this draft too.

Again....this younger guy with term needs to fit under the cap going forward. Otherwise it's a waste.


That is not going to happen. Use a first to trade away a player?

This years first is pretty much off limits unless they can make a move that can work under the cap today and going forward. It's not going to be used as a sweetener in a trade.

Every year the Leafs look good in reg season. Every year they lose first round, one year to Mont and one to Columbus. The Leafs need to look ahead to the no Dubas possibilities. We don’t have picks to waste anymore.

 

[All Mod Cons]

I find always the names listed are never the guy we draft. Like last year with Minten. Didn't see him talked about. Although we were all over the moon when his name was mentioned.

I imagine we'll draft someone that is low down in the general consensus rankings, that we had in our top 5 or 6.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

The WHL looks great. I'd love a guy like Heidt, Ziemmer, Honzek Dragicevic, or Danielson. I'm also a Gavin Brindley fan

 

[Bellzy]

Oliver Bonk would be my top pick. Solid RHD. Lots of upside.

Dragicevic would be great but he’ll likely be a riser.

Charley Stramel wouldn’t be bad either. We haven’t drafted a legit center prospect with top 6 potential since Kadri

Auston Matthews