NFL GDT: 2023 NFC Divisional Round: (3) Detroit Lions vs (4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

[Daz28]

People have been declaring the game over (both ways) since the 1st Q.

Not a reasonable crowd, lol

Pretty normal. I just did it, but yeah I don't do the early hot takes

 

[John Price]

DON'T f*** UP MY PARLAY TAMPA

 

[red devil]

Going for 2 and the Bucs they can't convert

 

[John Price]

2 pt con no good!

 

[Panthaz89]

Nice Bucs get to stay alive because they can tackle DBs that are in coverage.

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

How is that not a flag?

He grabbed him clearly and never looked back for ball

 

[GKJ]

Good no call

 

[Master P]

LMAO no flag. Of course

 

[RedRocking]

RIP under.

Going for 2 to screw those of us who laid the 6. Glad that didn’t work.

 

[Il Stugotz]

Wait why would they go for 2 there?

 

[hatterson]

Easy DPI if Evans jumps back towards the ball, but he kept going away from it so the contact didn't look bad.

 

[Daz28]

Now you HAVE to get the next one. Risky

Wait why would they go for 2 there?

One 2 yd play, vs having to play in OT

 

[Bounces R Way]

Don't really get going for 2 there.

 

[Stammertime91]

Stupid decision to try to win a game when you're not even tied. Idiotic.

 

[hatterson]

Wait why would they go for 2 there?

Down 14 you're better to go for 2 if you think you have a ~40-45% chance to make it or more.

 

[Daz28]

Don't really get going for 2 there.

It's risky, but I get it. You gotta have a better play than a fade to try it there, I think

 

[RedRocking]

Yea this analytics way of thinking that you play for a win regulation, vs going to OT is all kinds of dumb

 

[Panthaz89]

People whining about pass interference is funny when the receiver tackled the DB on 4th and 14 earlier that was covering Evans.

 

[Daz28]

RIP under.

Going for 2 to screw those of us who laid the 6. Glad that didn’t work.

It's so fickle ain't it. Can't tell you how many times I've lost bets to 1 yard. Literally happened yesterday

 

[RedRocking]

It's so fickle ain't it. Can't tell you how many times I've lost bets to 1 yard. Literally happened yesterday

Eh, it’s the life we’ve chosen, lol

 

[Master P]

LMFAO

 

[hatterson]

For the math.

If you have a 40% chance to make the 2.

You go for two because if you have a 40% chance to have made it and thus scoring the second TD gives you a ~98% chance to kick an XP and go up by 1/win. So call that a 39% chance to win the game.
If you fail the 2 point then you have a ~40% chance to go for two and level it and 50% chance to win in OT. so ~20% additional win chance. (Edit: Sorry not an additional 20%. It's 20% * .6 since that only occurs 60% of the time so 12%)
If you fail both you lose.

So that's ~52-3% win chance by going for 2 versus 50% win chance (or 49% if you count missing an XP in there and thus losing anyway) if you go for 1 both times if you think you have a 40% chance to make an 2 point conversion.

Obviously this is all dependent on scoring two TDs, but if you don't do that then your choice really doesn't matter anyway.

 

[red devil]

Tampa stops them and Lions will punt

 

[Melrose Munch]

lions making this too hard

 

[RedRocking]

Terrible game management