Speculation: 2023-24 Sharks Roster Discussion

[Pete Taylor]

"Top 15" implies less variability among the value of each of the top 15 picks than there really is. There's a huge dropoff from say the 7th pick to the 10th pick, and another one from 10th to 14th. And yeah technically we're only 98.5% sure it's the 14th pick.

Who said we're getting Cernak to immediately compete? This team just gave up 150 more goals than it scored - we're not a McDavid away from competing. Acquiring Cernak now would mostly be to capitalize on a brief window where we may be able to "trap" a good player, Winnipeg-style, on a contract that should age nicely by preying on a team with cap issues. This is exactly the type of thing we should be using our ample cap space and assets to do this offseason.

As for overpaying a similar defenseman on the free agent market, why not do both? Like you said, we're far from a Cernak away from competing. We're not a Cernak and $7Mx3 Tanev away from competing either but why not make a good faith effort to become moderately more competitive and give both the goaltenders and the young skill players we'll be bringing in more leeway?

I acknowldge your sentiment, and agree that we are far from a Cernak from competing. Which is why we should not spend valueable assets, even those with a chance of them becoming a nothing player, it is still better than us trying to aquire a Cernak type player with them. I also agree that we need to have a much better year than last year if we want to be a respectable team at any point in the future, and to give the young guys on the swuad and coming up, some type of morale boost.

I just personally think we are about 3 years away from making moves like this, without shooting ourselves in the foot.

 

[Juxtaposer]

But an even bigger outside chance to be Dylan Holloway or Cal Foote or Julius Honka or Zemgus Girgensons or on and on and on. In which case it doesn't matter what age the guy is unless you're lucky enough to catch on before the rest of the league and manage to include him in a package for a good player. Like Cernak.

Teams that win Stanley Cups hit on their 15th overall picks. It’s true that the player drafted 14th overall may not be as good as Cernak. But if we want to win a Stanley Cup some day, we need that 14th overall pick to hit.

We had the same conversation two years ago with you wanting to trade 11th overall for Jesse Puljujarvi. I was on board at the time, but I’ve certainly learned my lesson.

I’d be in favor of acquiring Cernak (I was the first one to suggest it), but not with assets that could be core to the future Sharks.

 

[TheBeard]

We had the same conversation two years ago with you wanting to trade 11th overall for Jesse Puljujarvi. I was on board at the time, but I’ve certainly learned my lesson.

I believe he was also willing to trade quite a bit for Lundqvist, who's getting about 2 minutes TOI a game in this series.

 

[coooldude]

I'm ambivalent towards the specific Cernak discussion. What we will know to be true, however, is that if Grier makes a trade like this in the offseason, it means that Hasso wants a faster rebuild. Me, personally, I don't want that because I don't trust it - we need to slowly get better while continuing to acquire blue chip prospects, even if they also have the massive downside of never becoming a Cernak.

I'm all for acquiring a Cernak or other UFA or trade to shore up our D and finish bottom three instead of wire-to-wire worst. But not at the cost of 2024 14/15OA. I'd rather Yakemchuk (my crush) or even Sennecke (less and less likely) or MBN or Iggy or Catton or Chernyshov, than Cernak, if it's a direct choice between 14 and Cernak/other like him.

 

[hohosaregood]

Maybe we should trade Musty for Cernak. Musty was a 26OA and really, how often do 26OAs hit.

 

[Hodge]

Teams that win Stanley Cups hit on their 15th overall picks. It’s true that the player drafted 14th overall may not be as good as Cernak. But if we want to win a Stanley Cup some day, we need that 14th overall pick to hit.

We had the same conversation two years ago with you wanting to trade 11th overall for Jesse Puljujarvi. I was on board at the time, but I’ve certainly learned my lesson.

I’d be in favor of acquiring Cernak (I was the first one to suggest it), but not with assets that could be core to the future Sharks.

Just because Puljujarvi was the wrong target doesn't mean the underlying idea was wrong.

I believe he was also willing to trade quite a bit for Lundqvist, who's getting about 2 minutes TOI a game in this series.

I wanted to trade Bordeleau for Nils Lundkvist which I would still gladly do today.

Maybe we should trade Musty for Cernak. Musty was a 26OA and really, how often do 26OAs hit.

Disingenuous argument since we have an extra year of data on Musty compared to an undrafted player indicating he's significantly more likely to hit than the average 26th overall pick.

 

[TheBeard]

I wanted to trade Bordeleau for Nils Lundkvist which I would still gladly do today.

I'm starting to believe it won't take nearly that much to take him off their hands.

 

[Hodge]

I'm starting to believe it won't take nearly that much to take him off their hands.

They gave up a 1st and 4th round pick for him 18 months ago and he's just starting to come into his own...why would they turn around and trade him for less than Bordeleau?

 

[TheBeard]

They gave up a 1st and 4th round pick for him 18 months ago and he's just starting to come into his own...why would they turn around and trade him for less than Bordeleau?

Starting to come into his own? He's averaging less than 5 minutes a game as a bottom pairing D-man who doesn't play special teams at all. He's 24 and an RFA. I'd be surprised if Dallas doesn't just let him walk. The only reason is probably a lack of RD in the system, but replacing him wouldn't be all that difficult.

 

[Hodge]

Another thing I'll add, the concept of "asset management" which everyone seems to preach during the trade deadline isn't just about trading your pending UFAs for picks. Anyone can do that.

It's more about diversifying your asset portfolio as a whole so you're not holding too much value purely in future assets which have the inherent risk of never realizing their potential.

Of course holding too much value in present assets (late DW era) is also risky. You need a balance of both. Grier did the right thing in shifting our portfolio from rapidly depreciating present assets to future assets but now we're too imbalanced in that direction.

 

[Hodge]

Starting to come into his own? He's averaging less than 5 minutes a game as a bottom pairing D-man who doesn't play special teams at all. He's 24 and an RFA. I'd be surprised if Dallas doesn't just let him walk. The only reason is probably a lack of RD in the system, but replacing him wouldn't be all that difficult.

Averaging less than 5 minutes in what? His last two games? In the regular season he scored 19 points in 59 games with no power play time and was +14 at 5v5. Dallas paid a significant price to acquire him less than 2 years ago. No way Nill is letting him walk or trading him after a career season.

 

[TheBeard]

Averaging less than 5 minutes in what? His last two games? In the regular season he scored 19 points in 59 games with no power play time and was +14 at 5v5. Dallas paid a significant price to acquire him less than 2 years ago. No way Nill is letting him walk or trading him after a career season.

In the entire series.

He's averaged about 2 minutes in the last 3 games, all wins, vs 9 minutes in the first two games, both losses (FYI, I'm not putting that on him, just found it funny).

If Dallas wins the cup, they'll have no problem moving on from him if he continues to be a non-factor at best.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Just because Puljujarvi was the wrong target doesn't mean the underlying idea was wrong.

You were sure that Puljujarvi was a good target then, what makes you think Cernak is the right target now?

You have also praised the LA Kings’ “rebuild” considerably, yet I don’t think anyone would be happy if the Sharks turned out like the 2023-2024 Kings. Trading away Brock Faber and a 19th overall pick for Kevin Fiala was an unmitigated disaster and yet that’s exactly what you’re proposing we do.

 

[TheBeard]

You were sure that Puljujarvi was a good target then, what makes you think Cernak is the right target now?

You have also praised the LA Kings’ “rebuild” considerably, yet I don’t think anyone would be happy if the Sharks turned out like the 2023-2024 Kings. Trading away Brock Faber and a 19th overall pick for Kevin Fiala was an unmitigated disaster and yet that’s exactly what you’re proposing we do.

I dunno about an unmitigated disaster. Faila's still been a PPG player since joining the kings and he's still only 27. He didn't look great in the playoffs, but it's the PLD trade that we should look back on with heavy criticism.

 

[Hodge]

You were sure that Puljujarvi was a good target then, what makes you think Cernak is the right target now?

You have also praised the LA Kings’ “rebuild” considerably, yet I don’t think anyone would be happy if the Sharks turned out like the 2023-2024 Kings. Trading away Brock Faber and a 19th overall pick for Kevin Fiala was an unmitigated disaster and yet that’s exactly what you’re proposing we do.

Puljujarvi was a bet on a player who looked like he was about to turn the corner. Cernak is an established vet.

I'm not sure what makes that trade an unmitigated disaster. Fiala is the Kings leading scorer since they acquired him, they've made the playoffs both seasons and Faber wouldn't be playing ahead of Doughty and Roy now or Doughty and Clarke in the future.

 

[PattyLafontaine]

So because Dumba fell off a cliff in his late 20s that automatically means Cernak will too? Big physical beasts like Cernak tend to hold up much longer. Brenden Dillon might be better now at 33 than he was with the Sharks. Mattias Ekholm, Colton Parayko, Tyler Myers...none of these guys show any signs of slowing down in their 30s and some of them are older than Cernak will be when his contract expires. Even the maligned Erik Gudbranson just dropped a solid season at 32.

Cernak is "of use" to us immediately. He would be by far our best and most physical defenseman and a positive influence on rebuilding the team culture and helping develop young players. There's every reason to believe he will continue to be at worst a solid #4 through the vast majority of the contract at a cap hit that will soon become 3rd pair territory with the rising cap.

Some of you act like the Sharks are guaranteed to miss the playoffs for the next 10 years. Yes, if we follow your advice and only acquire players shitty and desperate enough to sign with the Sharks in free agency, that will be a self-fulfilling prophecy. Trade for Cernak this year, build a package around the VGK 1st next year for someone like K'Andre Miller or Bowen Byram who might get priced out of their team and we'd really just need to hit on one high pick to complete the defense.

He's already having injury issues as it is. NHL Prime is 23-26 with players slightly declining from 27-30 and then precipitious decline after 30. Sure there are players do not degrade as quickly, but if you are maing a claim that there a lot of these type of players then what is the rush to sign this guy?

There's no point in making move like this as there is no core currently for the Sharks. Getting on the treadmill is ridiculous if you don't have stars to build around. The Sharks have no stars to build around and there's no guarantee that any of the Sharks that are prospects will make it in the NHL let alone be a cornerstone of the franchise.

Realistically the Sharks are going to be at the bottom of the league for at least the next 2-3 years. If the Sharks get Celebrini/Hagens and a few more prospects then you can start build the team up.

There's no need to rush into this project just to be a poor man's Minnesota Wild.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Puljujarvi was a bet on a player who looked like he was about to turn the corner. Cernak is an established vet.

I'm not sure what makes that trade an unmitigated disaster. Fiala is the Kings leading scorer since they acquired him, they've made the playoffs both seasons and Faber wouldn't be playing ahead of Doughty and Roy now or Doughty and Clarke in the future.

The Kings gave up a 22 year old cost-controlled all-situations #1 right-handed defenseman and a 19th overall pick for a small winger. If you define “making the playoffs and basically getting swept in the 1st round” a successful season, then we’ll have to fundamentally disagree on what the purpose of building a hockey team is and what defines success. I can tell you that not one Kings fan thinks this season was a success for them.

The Kings will not make the third round of the playoffs with Kevin Fiala on their team. Instead of building around Byfield and Clarke, they instead dealt massive futures to create a team where Byfield doesn’t get to play his natural position and Clarke can’t even get ice time at 21 years old while still barely making the playoffs and going out with a whimper.

The Kings are the poster children for not sacrificing the future to skip steps in rebuilding, not some shining example we should try to follow.

 

[TheBeard]

He's already having injury issues as it is. NHL Prime is 23-26 with players slightly declining from 27-30 and then precipitious decline after 30. Sure there are players do not degrade as quickly, but if you are maing a claim that there a lot of these type of players then what is the rush to sign this guy?

There's no point in making move like this as there is no core currently for the Sharks. Getting on the treadmill is ridiculous if you don't have stars to build around. The Sharks have no stars to build around and there's no guarantee that any of the Sharks that are prospects will make it in the NHL let alone be a cornerstone of the franchise.

Realistically the Sharks are going to be at the bottom of the league for at least the next 2-3 years. If the Sharks get Celebrini/Hagens and a few more prospects then you can start build the team up.

There's no need to rush into this project just to be a poor man's Minnesota Wild.

Minny should be much better than they are and TBH Cernak would be a terrific fit for that team if Spurgeon is done. That team still has a ton of young prospects that haven't (Yurok, Ohgren) or barely had a cup of coffee with the big club (Wallstedt).

 

[Hodge]

He's already having injury issues as it is. NHL Prime is 23-26 with players slightly declining from 27-30 and then precipitious decline after 30. Sure there are players do not degrade as quickly, but if you are maing a claim that there a lot of these type of players then what is the rush to sign this guy?

There's no point in making move like this as there is no core currently for the Sharks. Getting on the treadmill is ridiculous if you don't have stars to build around. The Sharks have no stars to build around and there's no guarantee that any of the Sharks that are prospects will make it in the NHL let alone be a cornerstone of the franchise.

Realistically the Sharks are going to be at the bottom of the league for at least the next 2-3 years. If the Sharks get Celebrini/Hagens and a few more prospects then you can start build the team up.

There's no need to rush into this project just to be a poor man's Minnesota Wild.

I agree with all of this but adding Cernak is not going to turn a -150 team into a playoff bubble team like Minnesota. It probably won't even turn us into a -125 team. It will make us slightly less embarrassing to watch/demoralizing to play for and add a respected veteran to the room.

Adding complementary players won't take us out of contention for last place anytime soon. Now that the demolition phase of the rebuild is complete, it makes sense to start adding a guy or two like this every offseason in anticipation of the stars. If they never come, you're f***ed either way, so what difference does it make?

 

[Hodge]

The Kings gave up a 22 year old cost-controlled all-situations #1 right-handed defenseman and a 19th overall pick for a small winger. If you define “making the playoffs and basically getting swept in the 1st round” a successful season, then we’ll have to fundamentally disagree on what the purpose of building a hockey team is and what defines success. I can tell you that not one Kings fan thinks this season was a success for them.

The Kings will not make the third round of the playoffs with Kevin Fiala on their team. Instead of building around Byfield and Clarke, they instead dealt massive futures to create a team where Byfield doesn’t get to play his natural position and Clarke can’t even get ice time at 21 years old while still barely making the playoffs and going out with a whimper.

The Kings are the poster children for not sacrificing the future to skip steps in rebuilding, not some shining example we should try to follow.

I would hold off on anointing Brock Faber based on one decent season. He wouldn't be the first young defenseman to show early promise before settling into a mediocre career. Regardless, he was never going to get the same opportunity in LA and there were rumors he wasn't even interested in signing with them.

Turning a surplus asset into a game-breaking winger who addresses your biggest need is the entire point of drafting BPA and building your team after. Blake wisely loaded up on right handed defensemen and centers in the draft then used some of them to acquire Fiala and Dubois and to get out of the Petersen contract.

It hasn't paid off yet but I'm not as certain as you are that the Kings won't make the third round or even beyond with Fiala as a key part of their team. I could easily envision a scenario next season where Byfield turns into a point per game 1C, Clarke drops 60+ points in his first full season, Dubois bounces back, they use their $20 million in cap space to find a real goalie and end up being one of the best teams in the league.

 

[OrrNumber4]

I agree with all of this but adding Cernak is not going to turn a -150 team into a playoff bubble team like Minnesota. It probably won't even turn us into a -125 team. It will make us slightly less embarrassing to watch/demoralizing to play for and add a respected veteran to the room.

OK, and that's isn't worth the 14th-overall pick and a bloated contract.

 

[Hodge]

OK, and that's isn't worth the 14th-overall pick and a bloated contract.

If you think Cernak's contract is bloated we're just never going to agree on this.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I would hold off on anointing Brock Faber based on one decent season. He wouldn't be the first young defenseman to show early promise before settling into a mediocre career. Regardless, he was never going to get the same opportunity in LA and there were rumors he wasn't even interested in signing with them.

Turning a surplus asset into a game-breaking winger who addresses your biggest need is the entire point of drafting BPA and building your team after. Blake wisely loaded up on right handed defensemen and centers in the draft then used some of them to acquire Fiala and Dubois and to get out of the Petersen contract.

It hasn't paid off yet but I'm not as certain as you are that the Kings won't make the third round or even beyond with Fiala as a key part of their team. I could easily envision a scenario next season where Byfield turns into a point per game 1C, Clarke drops 60+ points in his first full season, Dubois bounces back, they use their $20 million in cap space to find a real goalie and end up being one of the best teams in the league.

Sure, Faber could end up “just” a good #3D. Even then, I think the Kings messed up that trade big time.

I suppose it remains to see if the Kings can kick it up a notch. I am extremely, extremely doubtful. They’d have to pass the Oilers, Stars, and Avs, which I don’t see happening. As Byfield rises, Kopitar will fade. Ditto Clarke and Doughty.

At the end of the day, I would absolutely be in favor of acquiring a player like Cernak if the price was reasonable. I just absolutely won’t part with a 14th overall pick for him. Good middle pairing defensemen are always available for reasonable deals. Devon Toews (at the time of his trade), Brandon Montour, John Marino, etc. Invest in excellent pro scouting so you know which guys can be had for less than they’re worth. Pro scouting is what takes promising teams to the next level. It remains to be seen if the Sharks have that. So far, it’s been okay. It needs to be great.

 

[TheBeard]

Sure, Faber could end up “just” a good #3D. Even then, I think the Kings messed up that trade big time.

I suppose it remains to see if the Kings can kick it up a notch. I am extremely, extremely doubtful. They’d have to pass the Oilers, Stars, and Avs, which I don’t see happening. As Byfield rises, Kopitar will fade. Ditto Clarke and Doughty.

At the end of the day, I would absolutely be in favor of acquiring a player like Cernak if the price was reasonable. I just absolutely won’t part with a 14th overall pick for him. Good middle pairing defensemen are always available for reasonable deals. Devon Toews (at the time of his trade), Brandon Montour, John Marino, etc. Invest in excellent pro scouting so you know which guys can be had for less than they’re worth. Pro scouting is what takes promising teams to the next level. It remains to be seen if the Sharks have that. So far, it’s been okay. It needs to be great.

I've always been curious why Toews got such a late start on his career. He was 24 and a half before he made his debut with NY.

 

[Gecklund]

I've always been curious why Toews got such a late start on his career. He was 24 and a half before he made his debut with NY.

Answer is in your post. Cause NYI.

He spent 3 years in college and made pretty big steps those years but wasn’t really off the page good. Spent a couple seasons in the AHL then broke in. Really just a slow roll so they didn’t rush him in.