Speculation: 2023-24 Sharks Roster Discussion

[gaucholoco3]

I mean, if you can trade 20 for Cernak, you can trade 14 for Cernak. The difference there is more a matter of degree than a matter of doing it or having it on the table or not. I'm open to the possibility of trading back from 14 though it's not my preference as of now. My thinking is that when you go through a rebuild, there are certain benchmarks you need to hit before you start moving these types of assets for now players and we're just not there yet. I don't think we will be there until we have at least Celebrini at the very earliest but more realistically at least two gamebreakers but ideally a gamebreaker up front and a gamebreaker on the back end.

Well the difference between trading 14 and 20 in the scenario I mentioned was upgrading the 3rd round pick to #34. That is a big difference than trading #14 straight up. I also would not trade #14 if Yamachuk/Buium/Silayev/Dickenson are available.

Eklund-Granlund-Zetterlund
Zadina-Celebrini-Kunin
Bordeleau-Sturm-Kostin
Smith-Studnicka-Carpenter/Bailey

Ferraro-Cernak
Thrun-Rutta
Mukhamadullin-Burroughs/Emberson/Benning

If trading for Cernak and drafting Celebrini then Smith would be a lock to play in the NHL as well.

I would run:

Kostin - Granlund - Zetterlund
Eklund - Smith - Couture/UFA
Musty - Celebrini - Kunin
Zadina - Sturm - Bordeleau

Muk - Cernak
Ferraro - Rutta
Thrun - Emberson
Vlassic

Benning would be included in the TB deal.

Granlund could act as a buffer for the 2 young C’s.

This team might not be that good and would still need more to get to the cap floor, but if they are bottom 3 then perfect because they get another top prospect. If this team improves but only to be picking 12th overall at least the team would be improving because the young future core players are the ones driving the team.

 

[Alaskanice]

Buium is NOT lasting until 14.

 

[DG93]

Buium is NOT lasting until 14.

Agreed, he may not make it past 4

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Hertl is an extreme outlier in terms of what you can expect in the 11-20 range. I don't care what our defense prospect pool looks like because we don't have to draft or develop our defense. It's going to be much easier to trade picks and prospects for top four defensemen and then pray that we hit on a dman with either this year's 1st or next. Mix in UFAs and waiver claims as necessary.

Cernak wasn't in a "depth role" this season, he was 3rd among Bolts defensemen in ice time. Barring serious injuries I would expect Cernak to be a solid middle pair guy for at least the next 5 years. Acquiring him now instead of 4 years from now makes sense because he's an ideal player to help rebuild the team culture coming from a winning organization.

If the team is to truly get out of rebuild mode into playoff mode, they have to find outlier success until they find a core to build around. Celebrini and Smith aren’t good enough in this league to be their foundation alone.

Well the difference between trading 14 and 20 in the scenario I mentioned was upgrading the 3rd round pick to #34. That is a big difference than trading #14 straight up. I also would not trade #14 if Yamachuk/Buium/Silayev/Dickenson are available.

If trading for Cernak and drafting Celebrini then Smith would be a lock to play in the NHL as well.

I would run:

Kostin - Granlund - Zetterlund
Eklund - Smith - Couture/UFA
Musty - Celebrini - Kunin
Zadina - Sturm - Bordeleau

Muk - Cernak
Ferraro - Rutta
Thrun - Emberson
Vlassic

Benning would be included in the TB deal.

Granlund could act as a buffer for the 2 young C’s.

This team might not be that good and would still need more to get to the cap floor, but if they are bottom 3 then perfect because they get another top prospect. If this team improves but only to be picking 12th overall at least the team would be improving because the young future core players are the ones driving the team.

Expanding the trade value of the pick is fine but beside the point. I still wouldn’t trade a 20 for Cernak either. That’s still on its own a valuable future piece better used on a young prospect over Cernak. Until a young player prove themselves to be a core level player, we need to draft as many young players as it takes.

 

[TealManV]

I really love watching Wyatt Johnston and Logan Stankoven on Dallas. I can’t believe they also have Mavrik Bourque, who just led the AHL in scoring, waiting in the wings, too.

It’s pretty cool that Jim Nill and Dallas drafted Wyatt 23rd overall in 2021, Stankoven 47th overall in 2021, and Mavrik 30th overall in 2020.

Seems like a good recipe for success.

(It also requires quality player development and AHL coaching…)

 

[Lebanezer]

I really love watching Wyatt Johnston and Logan Stankoven on Dallas. I can’t believe they also have Mavrik Bourque, who just led the AHL in scoring, waiting in the wings, too.

It’s pretty cool that Jim Nill and Dallas drafted Wyatt 23rd overall in 2021, Stankoven 47th overall in 2021, and Mavrik 30th overall in 2020.

Seems like a good recipe for success.

(It also requires quality player development and AHL coaching…)

Amateur scouting is a big part of it.

 

[mogambomoroo]

For a middle 1st round pick (#14), Cernak is the wrong type of player to be on the Sharks radar as a priority.
If you can pay for Cernak type of player in free agency, I'm fine with that.
Just the trading for him seems like a mistake with a season we had. He will not move the needle enough to make an impact with the information we have. I'm aware that we need every kind of improvement, but I would look around and try to get an actual powerplay experienced/potential defencemen with assets we have.

 

[coooldude]

Amateur scouting is a big part of it.

Tldr: draft players with high probability of NHL success, don't draft players with low probability of success.

I'm reading into it how I would, which is to minimize risk rather than pursue upside, but that may be me projecting. Certainly it's not what DWJr regime was doing, drafting a lot of "but he could be Martin St Louis! He could be Dan Boyle!" type players.

Instructive was the Heiskanen pick, which this guy claims was "unspectacular but consensus" 3OA. Young, exploded after that. Would be an argument for players like Buium and Dickinson in the top 5.

 

[Barrie22]

Tldr: draft players with high probability of NHL success, don't draft players with low probability of success.

I'm reading into it how I would, which is to minimize risk rather than pursue upside, but that may be me projecting. Certainly it's not what DWJr regime was doing, drafting a lot of "but he could be Martin St Louis! He could be Dan Boyle!" type players.

Instructive was the Heiskanen pick, which this guy claims was "unspectacular but consensus" 3OA. Young, exploded after that. Would be an argument for players like Buium and Dickinson in the top 5.

Wilson and company used to draft for NHL readiness vs potential. Its how we ended up with Seto instead of Kopitar.

 

[STL Shark]

Based on what?

NHL Players selected at the 14th draft position at hockeydb.com

All players selected with the 14th position in the NHL draft

www.hockeydb.com

I encourage everyone to look at the list of players selected 14th over the past 20 years or so. Not many guys better than Cernak on there.

What would Dumba have cost to acquire at age 27? What did he cost to acquire only a couple of years later? See the trajectory to where Cernak is going with his value?

It's a terrible idea to give up draft capital for a guy that is going to be hitting the wall of his career by the time he's of any use to us. It's literally the rationale behind why we traded Timo instead of trying to re-sign him as a 27 year old.

If you're trading 14th overall for roster players, I'll repeat it again, they either need to be young guys that fit the age group of your new core or they have to be top line/pairing guys rather than middle of the lineup players. Trading big asset hauls for 27 year old middle of the lineup players when you're rebuilding is a horrific idea.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

The last couple draft day trades in the 14th overall range were for Romanov, Dach, etc. Younger guys who just needed a new start. That said they were to teams like NYI and MTL who are both more competitive than us. We just need to draft someone that matches our timeline and develop properly.

Trading for Cernak would do nothing but waste cap space just cleared, and he'd be another boring defensive dman who would look terrible on this team because of his usage. Ala Ferraro.

If we were actually a fringe playoff team drafting 14th overall it could make sense, but not when you finished dead last with no hope of significant improvement next year.

 

[Hodge]

What would Dumba have cost to acquire at age 27? What did he cost to acquire only a couple of years later? See the trajectory to where Cernak is going with his value?

It's a terrible idea to give up draft capital for a guy that is going to be hitting the wall of his career by the time he's of any use to us. It's literally the rationale behind why we traded Timo instead of trying to re-sign him as a 27 year old.

If you're trading 14th overall for roster players, I'll repeat it again, they either need to be young guys that fit the age group of your new core or they have to be top line/pairing guys rather than middle of the lineup players. Trading big asset hauls for 27 year old middle of the lineup players when you're rebuilding is a horrific idea.

So because Dumba fell off a cliff in his late 20s that automatically means Cernak will too? Big physical beasts like Cernak tend to hold up much longer. Brenden Dillon might be better now at 33 than he was with the Sharks. Mattias Ekholm, Colton Parayko, Tyler Myers...none of these guys show any signs of slowing down in their 30s and some of them are older than Cernak will be when his contract expires. Even the maligned Erik Gudbranson just dropped a solid season at 32.

Cernak is "of use" to us immediately. He would be by far our best and most physical defenseman and a positive influence on rebuilding the team culture and helping develop young players. There's every reason to believe he will continue to be at worst a solid #4 through the vast majority of the contract at a cap hit that will soon become 3rd pair territory with the rising cap.

Some of you act like the Sharks are guaranteed to miss the playoffs for the next 10 years. Yes, if we follow your advice and only acquire players shitty and desperate enough to sign with the Sharks in free agency, that will be a self-fulfilling prophecy. Trade for Cernak this year, build a package around the VGK 1st next year for someone like K'Andre Miller or Bowen Byram who might get priced out of their team and we'd really just need to hit on one high pick to complete the defense.

 

[jarr92]

So because Dumba fell off a cliff in his late 20s that automatically means Cernak will too? Big physical beasts like Cernak tend to hold up much longer. Brenden Dillon might be better now at 33 than he was with the Sharks. Mattias Ekholm, Colton Parayko, Tyler Myers...none of these guys show any signs of slowing down in their 30s and some of them are older than Cernak will be when his contract expires. Even the maligned Erik Gudbranson just dropped a solid season at 32.

Cernak is "of use" to us immediately. He would be by far our best and most physical defenseman and a positive influence on rebuilding the team culture and helping develop young players. There's every reason to believe he will continue to be at worst a solid #4 through the vast majority of the contract at a cap hit that will soon become 3rd pair territory with the rising cap.

Some of you act like the Sharks are guaranteed to miss the playoffs for the next 10 years. Yes, if we follow your advice and only acquire players shitty and desperate enough to sign with the Sharks in free agency, that will be a self-fulfilling prophecy. Trade for Cernak this year, build a package around the VGK 1st next year for someone like K'Andre Miller or Bowen Byram who might get priced out of their team and we'd really just need to hit on one high pick to complete the defense.

Pretty sure most here are fine bringing in Cernak, but we just don’t think it would cost #14 + Bystedt/Edstrom to help Tampa sign Stamkos.

 

[Hodge]

Pretty sure most here are fine bringing in Cernak, but we just don’t think it would cost #14 + Bystedt/Edstrom to help Tampa sign Stamkos.

If we can get him for two 2nds or something, awesome. I just know Cernak is a player GMs around the league will value highly, especially on that contract, so it's probably going to take more than that.

 

[STL Shark]

So because Dumba fell off a cliff in his late 20s that automatically means Cernak will too? Big physical beasts like Cernak tend to hold up much longer. Brenden Dillon might be better now at 33 than he was with the Sharks. Mattias Ekholm, Colton Parayko, Tyler Myers...none of these guys show any signs of slowing down in their 30s and some of them are older than Cernak will be when his contract expires. Even the maligned Erik Gudbranson just dropped a solid season at 32.

Cernak is "of use" to us immediately. He would be by far our best and most physical defenseman and a positive influence on rebuilding the team culture and helping develop young players. There's every reason to believe he will continue to be at worst a solid #4 through the vast majority of the contract at a cap hit that will soon become 3rd pair territory with the rising cap.

Some of you act like the Sharks are guaranteed to miss the playoffs for the next 10 years. Yes, if we follow your advice and only acquire players shitty and desperate enough to sign with the Sharks in free agency, that will be a self-fulfilling prophecy. Trade for Cernak this year, build a package around the VGK 1st next year for someone like K'Andre Miller or Bowen Byram who might get priced out of their team and we'd really just need to hit on one high pick to complete the defense.

Love it when you just make stuff up. Trading top 15 picks for middle of the lineup players in a rebuild is just insanely bad business. Nobody that you're debating with is saying that you have to make every draft pick (I quite literally said the exact opposite). It's using said draft pick on a player that is going to be a 2nd pair defender in his 30's (in the best case scenario) at the time that we're ready to start competing.

I would gladly consider parting with 14th overall for Miller/Byram because they're 3/4 years younger than Cernak. Those guys actually fit the mold of what you should be looking for if you're trading 1st rounders as a rebuilding team. Cernak doesn't fit that mold whatsoever.

 

[LadyStanley]

Top 50 UFAs from Daily Faceoff. A few former Sharks on that list.

 

[Friday]

Wonder if Dallas wants Pavs back? He could be a nice way to spend to the cap floor on a 1/2 year deal. Or just a 1 with a deadline flip

 

[TealManV]

Wonder if Dallas wants Pavs back? He could be a nice way to spend to the cap floor on a 1/2 year deal. Or just a 1 with a deadline flip

I’m right there with you. Hopefully, Pavs can get his cup this year and the Sharks can get Macklin. Sign Pavs to a 1 year, $8-10m deal and stick him on Macklin’s RW. Heck, have Macklin live with Pavs like Wyatt Johnston has done the past two seasons.

 

[Cas]

Wonder if Dallas wants Pavs back? He could be a nice way to spend to the cap floor on a 1/2 year deal. Or just a 1 with a deadline flip

There was a rumor somewhere that he's planning to retire after the playoffs.

 

[Jargon]

There was a rumor somewhere that he's planning to retire after the playoffs.

Coach Pavs come on down!

 

[Hodge]

Love it when you just make stuff up. Trading top 15 picks for middle of the lineup players in a rebuild is just insanely bad business. Nobody that you're debating with is saying that you have to make every draft pick (I quite literally said the exact opposite). It's using said draft pick on a player that is going to be a 2nd pair defender in his 30's (in the best case scenario) at the time that we're ready to start competing.

I would gladly consider parting with 14th overall for Miller/Byram because they're 3/4 years younger than Cernak. Those guys actually fit the mold of what you should be looking for if you're trading 1st rounders as a rebuilding team. Cernak doesn't fit that mold whatsoever.

It's not a "top 15 pick" - it's the 14th pick. We know what pick it is. And players drafted in that slot typically develop into...middle of the lineup players. But middle of the lineup players are important! So why not use the pick to acquire a guaranteed one, signed long term at a good number, rather than risk drafting an outright bust?

"2nd pair defender in his 30s" routinely describes important pieces of Cup winning teams. Just off the top of my head McNabb, Martinez, Manson, McDonagh (not sure why their names all start with M lol) and Bouwmeester all fit that description in recent years. With the exception of Manson they were also all acquired several seasons prior to the championship and helped mentor the team's younger core.

I would honestly hesitate to give up the 14th pick for Byram given his concussion history. I want to see how a full season in Buffalo goes first. And I don't think 14th would be enough for Miller or that it makes sense for the Rangers to trade him right now. Maybe 14+32+Bystedt+Ferraro for Miller+Goodrow?

 

[Pete Taylor]

It's not a "top 15 pick" - it's the 14th pick. We know what pick it is. And players drafted in that slot typically develop into...middle of the lineup players. But middle of the lineup players are important! So why not use the pick to acquire a guaranteed one, signed long term at a good number, rather than risk drafting an outright bust?

"2nd pair defender in his 30s" routinely describes important pieces of Cup winning teams. Just off the top of my head McNabb, Martinez, Manson, McDonagh (not sure why their names all start with M lol) and Bouwmeester all fit that description in recent years. With the exception of Manson they were also all acquired several seasons prior to the championship and helped mentor the team's younger core.

I would honestly hesitate to give up the 14th pick for Byram given his concussion history. I want to see how a full season in Buffalo goes first. And I don't think 14th would be enough for Miller or that it makes sense for the Rangers to trade him right now. Maybe 14th+32+Bystedt+Ferraro for Miller+Goodrow?

I dont get your first statement:
1. 14th is in the top 15
2. We actually do not know if it is 14 or not.

The negative sentiment you are getting is because we are far from a Cernak to be competing. Why would we waste assets to acquire pieces that will be forcing a trade before we are even in our window. His age just doesn't match our timeline, we need players that are going to grow with the core we are assembling, and that is going to come from the drafts now, and a couple years from now.

We could easily over pay a player of a similar caliber with lower term, who is going to have the same impact as cernak (for no assets other than cap space).

 

[Jargon]

I think the key thing here is the top 14 pick can generally turn into a Cernak player.. but with an outside chance to be much more. He’ll also be 8 years younger.

Cernak is what he is, but I’d rather take a swing on a potentially very young middle lineup player with a high ceiling. I just don’t super think we need him just yet, or need to make trades for guys like him yet. Maybe after next season.

 

[Hodge]

I dont get your first statement:
1. 14th is in the top 15
2. We actually do not know if it is 14 or not.

The negative sentiment you are getting is because we are far from a Cernak to be competing. Why would we waste assets to acquire pieces that will be forcing a trade before we are even in our window. His age just doesn't match our timeline, we need players that are going to grow with the core we are assembling, and that is going to come from the drafts now, and a couple years from now.

We could easily over pay a player of a similar caliber with lower term, who is going to have the same impact as cernak (for no assets other than cap space).

"Top 15" implies less variability among the value of each of the top 15 picks than there really is. There's a huge dropoff from say the 7th pick to the 10th pick, and another one from 10th to 14th. And yeah technically we're only 98.5% sure it's the 14th pick.

Who said we're getting Cernak to immediately compete? This team just gave up 150 more goals than it scored - we're not a McDavid away from competing. Acquiring Cernak now would mostly be to capitalize on a brief window where we may be able to "trap" a good player, Winnipeg-style, on a contract that should age nicely by preying on a team with cap issues. This is exactly the type of thing we should be using our ample cap space and assets to do this offseason.

As for overpaying a similar defenseman on the free agent market, why not do both? Like you said, we're far from a Cernak away from competing. We're not a Cernak and $7Mx3 Tanev away from competing either but why not make a good faith effort to become moderately more competitive and give both the goaltenders and the young skill players we'll be bringing in more leeway?

 

[Hodge]

I think the key thing here is the top 14 pick can generally turn into a Cernak player.. but with an outside chance to be much more. He’ll also be 8 years younger.

But an even bigger outside chance to be Dylan Holloway or Cal Foote or Julius Honka or Zemgus Girgensons or on and on and on. In which case it doesn't matter what age the guy is unless you're lucky enough to catch on before the rest of the league and manage to include him in a package for a good player. Like Cernak.